A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment—Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests

Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).     

Toward an Ethical Model of Effective Crisis Communication

The goal of this study was to develop and demonstrate a new ethical model for crisis communication. This article examined the crisis communication practices as well as literature and found essential elements—what, how, and when—for ethical and effective crisis communication. Based on these three variables, a new three‐part model, the TTR Test, was proposed, utilizing three principles: Transparency (what), Two‐way symmetrical communication (how), and Right time (when). To investigate how the test can be applied to the real world, this article examined BP's crisis communication during the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.     

Self‐Service Operations at Retail Stores: The Role of Inter‐Customer Interactions

Inter‐customer interactions are important to the operation of self‐services in retail settings. More specifically, when self‐service terminals are used as part of customers’ checkout processes in retail operations without the explicit involvement of retailers as the direct service providers, inter‐customer interactions become a significant managerial issue. In this article, we examine the impact of inter‐customer interactions at retail self‐service terminals on customers’ service quality perceptions and repeat purchase intentions at retail stores. We conduct a scenario‐based experimental design (N = 674) using a 2 × 2 factorial design in which inter‐customer interactions are divided into “positive” vs. “negative” and occur during the “waiting” or during the actual “transaction” stages of self‐services at a retail store. We use attribution theory to develop the hypotheses. The results demonstrate that, through their interactions, fellow customers can exert influences on a focal customer's quality perceptions and repeat purchasing intentions toward a retail store. Furthermore, these influences were impacted by how customers attribute blame or assign responsibility toward the retail store. Service operations managers should leverage these interactions by designing into self‐service settings the capacities and interfaces that are best suited for customers’ co‐production of their self‐service experiences.     

Institutional Predictors of and Complements to Industry Self‐regulation with Regard to Labor Practices

In recent years, there has been increasing managerial and academic attention given to a variety of mechanisms for companies to respond to stakeholder concerns about global business ethics. One area that merits further analysis is the role of industry‐level cooperation regarding issues in global business ethics such as labor practices. There are two main issues that we will address in this article: institutional pressures that predict when an industry will create a code of conduct and institutional complements for an industry‐level code of conduct to be “successful” with regard to responding to stakeholder concerns about international business operations. We offer a number of propositions—bringing together work from both the corporate social responsibility and (neo)institutional theory literatures—with regard to both predictors and complements of industry self‐regulation in reference to labor practices.     

Sentiments

This paper develops a new theory of fluctuations—one that helps accommodate the notions of “animal spirits” and “market sentiment” in unique‐equilibrium, rational‐expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique‐equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom‐and‐bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.     

IS THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT AN EXPECTATIONS EFFECT?

A hallmark result within behavioral economics is that individuals' choices are affected by current endowments. A recent theory due to Kőszegi and Rabin ( 2006 , Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 1133–1165) explains such endowment effect with a model of expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences. Departing from past work, we conduct complementary experiments to disentangle expectations—verified probabilistic beliefs held by subjects—from other features of endowment—such as “assignment” to a good—hence allowing us to compare the effect of expectations with that of other variations. While mere assignment can affect choices, we do not find a large role in the effect for Kőszegi–Rabin expectations.     

Regression Versus Causation,Revisited

I recently discussed pitfalls in attempted causal inference based on reduced‐form regression models. I used as motivation a real‐world example from a paper by Dr. Sneeringer, which interpreted a reduced‐form regression analysis as implying the startling causal conclusion that “doubling of [livestock] production leads to a 7.4% increase in infant mortality.” This conclusion is based on: (A) fitting a reduced‐form regression model to aggregate (e.g., county‐level) data; and (B) (mis)interpreting a regression coefficient in this model as a causal coefficient, without performing any formal statistical tests for potential causation (such as conditional independence, Granger‐Sims, or path analysis tests). Dr. Sneeringer now adds comments that confirm and augment these deficiencies, while advocating methodological errors that, I believe, risk analysts should avoid if they want to reach logically sound, empirically valid, conclusions about cause and effect. She explains that, in addition to (A) and (B) above, she also performed other steps such as (C) manually selecting specific models and variables and (D) assuming (again, without testing) that hand‐picked surrogate variables are valid (e.g., that log‐transformed income is an adequate surrogate for poverty). In her view, these added steps imply that “critiques of A and B are not applicable” to her analysis and that therefore “a causal argument can be made” for “such a strong, robust correlation” as she believes her regression coefficient indicates. However, multiple wrongs do not create a right. Steps (C) and (D) exacerbate the problem of unjustified causal interpretation of regression coefficients, without rendering irrelevant the fact that (A) and (B) do not provide evidence of causality. This reply focuses on whether any statistical techniques can produce the silk purse of a valid causal inference from the sow's ear of a reduced‐form regression analysis of ecological data. We conclude that Dr. Sneeringer's analysis provides no valid indication that air pollution from livestock operations causes any increase in infant mortality rates. More generally, reduced‐form regression modeling of aggregate population data—no matter how it is augmented by fitting multiple models and hand‐selecting variables and transformations—is not adequate for valid causal inference about health effects caused by specific, but unmeasured, exposures.     

EPA Underestimates,Oversimplifies, Miscommunicates,and Mismanages Cancer Risks by Ignoring Human Susceptibility

If exposed to an identical concentration of a carcinogen, every human being would face a different level of risk, determined by his or her genetic, environmental, medical, and other uniquely individual characteristics. Various lines of evidence indicate that this susceptibility variable is distributed rather broadly in the human population, with perhaps a factor of 25‐ to 50‐fold between the center of this distribution and either of its tails, but cancer risk assessment at the EPA and elsewhere has always treated every (adult) human as identically susceptible. The National Academy of Sciences “Silver Book” concluded that EPA and the other agencies should fundamentally correct their mis‐computation of carcinogenic risk in two ways: (1) adjust individual risk estimates upward to provide information about the upper tail; and (2) adjust population risk estimates upward (by about sevenfold) to correct an underestimation due to a mathematical property of the interindividual distribution of human susceptibility, in which the susceptibility averaged over the entire (right‐skewed) population exceeds the median value for the typical human. In this issue of Risk Analysis, Kenneth Bogen disputes the second adjustment and endorses the first, though he also relegates the problem of underestimated individual risks to the realm of “equity concerns” that he says should have little if any bearing on risk management policy. In this article, I show why the basis for the population risk adjustment that the NAS recommended is correct—that current population cancer risk estimates, whether they are derived from animal bioassays or from human epidemiologic studies, likely provide estimates of the median with respect to human variation, which in turn must be an underestimate of the mean. If cancer risk estimates have larger “conservative” biases embedded in them, a premise I have disputed in many previous writings, such a defect would not excuse ignoring this additional bias in the direction of underestimation. I also demonstrate that sensible, legally appropriate, and ethical risk policy must not only inform the public when the tail of the individual risk distribution extends into the “high‐risk” range, but must alter benefit‐cost balancing to account for the need to try to reduce these tail risks preferentially.     

An organizational climate regarding ethics: the outcome of leader values and the practices that reflect them

In this article, we argue that the organizational climate regarding ethics — the shared perception of what is ethically correct behavior and how ethical issues should be handled within an organization — is an outgrowth of the personal values and motives of organizational founders and other early organizational leaders. We begin by arguing that one common label for the climate regarding ethics construct — “ethical climate” — is inappropriate. We also argue that climate regarding ethics has an impact on organizational outcomes, including organizational outcomes that do not have explicit ethical components. We propose that this impact largely occurs through the mediating mechanisms of organizational cohesion and morale. We conclude by discussing the variety of antecedents and outcomes related to climate regarding ethics.     

Transparency in Europe: A Quantitative Study

In recent years, European pharmaceutical regulators have increasingly committed to heightening access to raw safety‐related data as part of a wave of transparency initiatives (e.g., providing public Internet‐mediated access to clinical trials data). Yet, the regulators—who are under significant pressure—have not yet benefited from a systematic review of this new policy. In seeking to inject much needed evidence, this article explores the effects of new transparency policies designed to promote meaningful communication of risks and benefits to patients. Results of a cross‐national European survey with respondents from Great Britain, the Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, and Sweden (N = 5,648) shed light on how patients and the public are likely to react to the regulators’ new transparency policies. The findings demonstrate clear national variations in how European citizens are likely to react and emphasize the need to develop evidence‐based, reasoned transparency policies that integrate benefit‐risk communication. The authors conclude by providing six specific recommendations, informed by the study, that seek to improve the European transparency model both within the medical field and across health, safety, and environmental policy domains.     

“Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise”—Incorporating uncertainty in risk analysis from Shakespeare to today

“Modest doubt is call'd the beacon of the wise.”—William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida. Although the character Hector warns his fellow Trojans with this line not to engage in war against the Greeks, Shakespeare's works are replete with characters who do not incorporate modest doubt, or any consideration of uncertainty, in their risk decisions. Perhaps Shakespeare was simply a keen observer of human nature. Although risk science has developed tremendously over the last five decades (and scientific inquiry over five centuries), the human mind still frequently defaults to conviction about certain beliefs, absent sufficient scientific evidence—which has effects not just on individual lives, but on policy decisions that affect many. This perspective provides background on the Shakespearean quote in its literary and historical context. Then, as this quote is the theme of the 2023 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, we describe how “modest doubt”—incorporating the notion of uncertainty into risk analysis for individual and policy decisions—is still the “beacon of the wise” today.     

Implementing Operations Strategy: How Vertical and Horizontal Coordination Interact

We study the implementation of operations strategy at six German manufacturers in mature businesses. Search theory argues that vertical coordination (i.e., unilateral top‐down adjustment of lower‐level search actions) balances stability against the improvement potential enabled by frontline search and also that horizontal coordination (i.e., bilateral adjustment among lower‐level search actions) is required to ensure compatibility among the initiatives generated in various organizational subunits. Much less is known about how vertical and horizontal coordination interact in operations strategy implementation—that is the focus of this study. We first study how horizontal and vertical coordination affect the compatibility and creativity of distributed search, triangulating our cross‐level interviews with data on the manufacturers' productivity gains and their strategic projects. We then examine whether and how vertical and horizontal coordination interact. Our case comparisons suggest that leaving either one of them “loose” and keeping the other one “tight” results in a useful balance between compatibility and creativity; in contrast, tightening both types of coordination suppresses creativity and loosening both types risks incompatibility of initiatives across units. These results lead to a theoretical framework that identifies vertical and horizontal coordination as partial substitutes for operations strategy implementation.     

Giving as Good as They Get? Organization and Employee Expectations of Ethical Business Practice

Corporate malpractice and malfeasance on an unprecedented scale have brought ethical issues to the fore and accentuated demands from activists, governments, and the public for greater corporate social responsibility (CSR). The predominant response of researchers and policymakers has been to focus on the external impact of business operations and the merits of regulation or persuasion in achieving more responsible practice in these areas. In this article, we focus on a less well explored aspect of CSR, namely the evaluation of an organization's CSR activities by its internal stakeholders (i.e., employees). Salient CSR literature is reviewed to differentiate between CSR and ethical business practice (EBP), conceptualizing the latter as the internal manifestation of CSR as represented by an organization's values and vision, strategy and policy, systems and procedures, and people management practices. This article assesses organizational espousal of EBP in three ways: how successfully it is communicated to employees, how closely espousal aligns with employee expectation, and how this evaluation impacts on employee commitment. Our research approach aligns with and extends previous work in this area that identifies the likelihood of a “false consensus bias” by managers in assuming congruence between organization espousal of EBP and employee expectation. A conceptual model is offered to explain possible employee responses to an organization's EBP. This relates organization espousal of EBP to employee assessment of its salience to identify three positions on commitment that employees can adopt—abrogated, continuance, and affective commitment—together with their likely behavioral implications. The analysis generates a series of research questions and related areas of exploration to empirically test the conceptual model.     

History in Organization and Management Theory: More Than Meets the Eye

Abstract

There has been a growing debate about the role of history in management research with several authors making suggestions on how to bring the two (back) together and others even highlighting the need for a “historic turn”. What we argue in this paper is that, while history was indeed sidelined by the scientization of management since the late 1950s, it started to make a comeback from the 1980s onwards and is increasingly employed in a number of research programs. We stress that the crucial question for management scholars engaging with history (or wanting to do so) is how it relates to theory. First of all, we present a systematic overview of the way history has been used—both at the micro (organizational) and macro-levels of analysis—distinguishing between what we refer to as “history to theory” and “history in theory”. In the former, we consider those research programs, such as (neo-)institutionalism, where history serves as evidence to develop, modify or test theories. In the case of “history in theory” we identify research programs where history or the past are part of the theoretical model itself as a driver or moderator, with “imprinting” as a prime example. Second, we also identify a growing number of studies that go further by displaying what we call “historical cognizance” in the sense of incorporating period effects or historical contingencies into their theorizing efforts. Finally, drawing on our broad overview, we make more specific suggestions for increasing the visibility and influence of history in organization and management theory.     

The Conflict between U.S. Patent Protection and Technological Innovation: Analysis and Problem Solving by Means of the Integrated Causal Model for Innovated Ethic

Criticisms of patent laws for technological innovations in the United States reveal a multifaceted milieu of problems centered around the protection of short‐term economic gain and individual property rights. In this article, we consider this a conflict between current patent laws and the innovation capabilities of organizations. We propose a solution that enables the company to assure its long‐term survival in the face of these restrictions. This presumes that the firm will at least maintain its innovation capacities while preserving the company's ethical values and those of its social environment. We offer a theoretical model that is designed to help managers and policymakers reorient their governance strategies for managing the innovation process, using the “ethics of responsibility,” which establishes the link to individual moral values at the beginning of a governance process as well as the consequences of a decision. Our integrated causal model of ethical innovation for patents is presented and implications for global organizations and possible solutions for patent law process failure are offered.     

Contingency Strategies in Managing Supply Systems with Uncertain Lead‐Times

The globalization of markets and geographic dispersion of production facilities, combined with a heavy outsourcing of supply chain processes, have substantially increased the exposure of supply chains to supply lead‐times of long and uncertain nature. In this paper, we study the potential use of two contingency strategies on top of the conventionally used time buffer—statically planned safety lead‐time (SL)—approach to deal with the lead‐time uncertainty. These are (1) the ex‐ante planning for disruption safety stock (DSS) to be released when a “disruption” (in this case, late delivery of the order) occurs; and (2) the ex‐post dynamic emergency response (DER), which dynamically decides on the timing and size of an emergency order to be placed. Our work elaborates on the optimal parameter setting for these strategies, compares their added values when used to complement the traditional SL approach, and examines how the use of the contingency strategies affects the SL and corresponding cycle length of a periodic review system. Our research finds that: (1) the above contingency strategies reduce the reliance on the SL and are cost effective when the coefficient of variation (CV) of the uncertain lead‐time is high; (2) it is important to re‐optimize the SL to account for the contingency plans; and (3) re‐optimization of the cycle length to account for the presence of the contingency responses, as opposed to using an EOQ‐determined cycle length, does not significantly improve the cost performance. However, such re‐optimization does well in the SL approach when the CV of the uncertain lead‐time is high.     

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run,Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide preparedness information of this kind, in large part because of concern about scaring the public. In this survey experiment, 3,003 U.K. and Danish participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no information, a leaflet intervention, and a film intervention to examine the impact of “Run, Hide, Tell” advice on perceptions about terrorism, the security services, and intended responses to a hypothetical terrorist firearms attack. Results demonstrate important benefits of pre‐event communication in relation to enhancing trust, encouraging protective health behaviors, and discouraging potentially dangerous actions. However, these findings also suggest that future communications should address perceived response costs and target specific problem behaviors. Cross‐national similarities in response suggest this advice is suitable for adaptation in other countries.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

POM Forum: Transfer of Changing Production Know‐How

Even with the rich literature on knowledge management, we still don't know enough about how the rate of change in production‐know‐how affects the choice of mechanisms for its transfer. Codifying tacit know‐how helps, but codification becomes more challenging as the know‐how changes more frequently. Transfer of tacit know‐how becomes much more complicated when it changes often. We need more research in this area, particularly to help production and operations managers who must ultimately use the new know‐how and change their companies' production processes. The paper suggests a framework as a step in that direction. The framework focuses on the interplay between the level of codification and the rate of change of production know‐how, and identifies four zones for classifying production know‐how: “slow and codified,” “slow and tacit,” “fast and codified,” and “fast and tacit.” Examples from McDonald̂s, Club Med, Intel, and AOL are used to illustrate primary transfer mechanisms for each zone (manuals and systems, people, joint‐development, and projects, respectively). Appropriate absorptive capacities in the production units for each zone are also identified. Since the ultimate responsibility of operations managers is to improve (i.e., change) their production know‐how as fast as possible, they would be wise to adopt policies that are closer to those suited for the “fast and codified” zone. Intel and Toyota show good models.     

13 Ethical Decision Making: Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going

Abstract

Research on ethical decision making, or behavioral ethics, in organizations has developed from a small niche area to a burgeoning stand‐alone field, one that has gained not only in number of articles written but in the legitimacy of the topic and the field. Our review motivated us to first try and summarize the field, not by comparing it to existing theoretical paradigms, but rather by observing what the data were telling us. We present our summary in the form of a model of ethical decision making and a typology that distinguishes intentionality of actions from ethicality of actions. After presenting this summary of the data, we critically review the research in this area, noting those areas which offer substantial insight and those that do not. In looking to the future and how the field can enhance the former and mitigate the latter, we identify several areas in which meaningful progress can be made, including defining what is “ethical”, revisiting unsubstantiated assumptions, focusing on the processes of ethical decision making, fixing methodological issues, and disentangling the outcomes of ethical decisions.