“TRUTH” AND “RECONCILIATION” AS SOCIAL INDICATORS

Countries throughout the world are trying to move toward a more democratic future through truth and reconciliation processes, under the assumption that truth causes reconciliation and that reconciliation contributes to democratization. But are “truth” and “reconciliation” concepts that can be measured rigorously and reliability? I present evidence in this article that each can be measured as an attribute of individuals, based on a large survey conducted in South Africa. My findings indicate that truth does indeed contribute to reconciliation. But because reconciliation is quite capable of changing (and likely to change) over time, efforts must be made to track levels of reconciliation as an important social indicator. Many countries in transition would profit greatly from implementing a Reconciliation Barometer to measure movement toward or away from the consolidation of democratic reform.     

Short- and long-term effects of divorce and separation on housing tenure in England and Wales

This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals’ housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership.     

Divorce,Separation, and Housing Changes: A Multiprocess Analysis of Longitudinal Data from England and Wales

This study investigates the effect of marital and nonmarital separation on individuals’ residential and housing trajectories. Using rich data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and applying multilevel competing-risks event history models, we analyze the risk of a move of single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women to different housing types. We distinguish moves due to separation from moves of separated people and account for unobserved codeterminants of moving and separation risks. Our analysis shows that many individuals move due to separation, as expected, but that the likelihood of moving is also relatively high among separated individuals. We find that separation has a long-term effect on individuals’ residential careers. Separated women exhibit high moving risks regardless of whether they moved out of the joint home upon separation, whereas separated men who did not move out upon separation are less likely to move. Interestingly, separated women are most likely to move to terraced houses, whereas separated men are equally likely to move to flats (apartments) and terraced (row) houses, suggesting that family structure shapes moving patterns of separated individuals.     

Ethnicity at the Individual and Neighborhood Level as an Explanation for Moving Out of the Neighborhood

We address the influence of both the ethnic composition of the neighborhood and the ethnicity of individual residents on moving out of neighborhoods in the Netherlands. Using the Housing Research Netherlands survey and multinomial logistic regression analyses of moving out versus not moving or moving within the neighborhood, we found that ethnicity at the individual level was not of much importance for moving out. The combination of ethnicity at the individual level and the neighborhood level, however, appeared to be a rather important explanation of geographical mobility. Ethnic minorities are more likely than native Dutch to move within neighborhoods, and less likely to move away from them, as the share of non-western minorities in those neighborhoods increases. Native Dutch move away more frequently than ethnic minorities as the share of non-western ethnic minorities in neighborhoods is greater. These results suggest ethnic enclave formation or place stratification in the Netherlands.     

Making Diversity Conform? An Intersectional,Longitudinal Analysis of LGBT-Specific Mainstream Media Advertisements

This study introduces an intersectional analysis of explicit LGBT portrayals in mainstream advertising between 2009 and 2015. The analysis provides insights into the (in)visibility of the LGBT community over a period of significant social change. It finds that although the number of explicit representations of LGBT characters has risen dramatically, 230 out of 240 intersections of sexuality, class, age, and race remain invisible. In using a new ad format—human interest ads—advertisers move away from hypersexualization, toward real individuals’ stories of love and families. Nonetheless, the analysis highlights how the erasure of multiply marginalized groups in mainstream advertising continues to perpetuate a heteronormative, domesticized version of “gayness” and discusses the adverse effects that lie herein. It is proposed that non-LGBT consumers are the underlying target group of LGBT-explicit advertising, causing non-target market effects that alienate large parts of the LGBT community despite their overt inclusion.     

A unified approach to interpolation and graduation

The subject of interpolation and graduation is customarily treated by finite difference formulas of great variety and complexity, these having been developed with the convenience of hand calculation in mind. The cheapening of computation which has occurred in the past few years permits a simplification and unification of the subject. This is accomplished by linear equations which express conditions it is desired to impose on the interpolating curve and the elimination of the constants resulting in a determinantal equation. A computer program which evaluates a determinant then suffices for nearly any problem of graduation, interpolation, numerical differentiation and integration, as well as for the calculation of the remainder term or error of any of these.     

The dynamics of single mothers' living arrangements

Using a four-way definition of living arrangements (independent, live with parents, cohabit, share with others) and data from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation, I find that single mothers have a 26 percent probability of switching living arrangements at least once during a 32-month period. Mothers living independently are the least likely to change arrangements, and those sharing housing with individuals other than a boyfriend or parents are the most likely toswitch. Having lived for a longer period of time in any of the four arrangements decreases the probability of switching. Among those who change living arrangements, there appear to be some patterns of transition. Mothers living with their parentstend to move into either independent households or those that they share with individuals other than an unrelated man. If they leave, mothers who lived with their parents tend not to move back into their parents' household, at least withinthe time period examined. Women who share with others or cohabit tend to cycle between their current living arrangement and living independently. Among those who switch living arrangements, mothers who do not live independently tend to have transitions into independence or other arrangements which increase the probability they will choose independence in the future.     

中国特色城镇化与我国的“三农”问题

十六大报告的一个突破性的提法 ,就是跳出了传统的就农业论农业、就农村论农村、就农民论农民的局限 ,站在整个国民经济和社会发展全局的高度 ,来考虑如何解决农业、农村和农民问题 ,从而提出全面繁荣农村经济 ,加快城镇化进程的思路 ,也就是走中国特色城镇化道路。这种“特色”集中表现在它同解决农民、农业和农村问题 ,即“三农”问题紧密联系在一起。     

Population growth with variable family size

The Sharpe‐Lotka continuous time deterministic model of population growth is developed to take account of some possible forms of mother‐daughter fertility association, characterised here by a bivariable measure, A. This leads to a linear double integral equation for which, subject to certain conditions, a finite time solution can be found by Laplace transform methods and thus also model specific results relating the intergenerational fertility effect to the long term population growth rate and magnitude are established. The quantitative implications of the theory are illustrated by a consideration of a general bilinear form of A and in this context numerical results illustrating the finite time growth and also the long term distribution of fertility levels in the stable female population are obtained. In particular, it is shown that different fertility specific subpopulations can coexist indefinitely.     

Population growth with variable family size

"The Sharpe-Lotka continuous time deterministic model of population growth is developed to take account of some possible forms of mother-daughter fertility association....Model specific results relating the intergenerational fertility effect to the long term population growth rate and magnitude are established. The quantitative implications of the theory are illustrated by a consideration of a general bilinear form of A and in this context numerical results illustrating the finite time growth and also the long term distribution of fertility levels in the stable female population are obtained. In particular, it is shown that different fertility specific subpopulations can coexist indefinitely."     

The mobility experience and neighborhood attachment

In this study, I consider variables associated with an individual’s most recent move into his or her current residence as predictors of neighborhood attachment. Using the 1978–1979 Seattle Community Attachment Survey, I find that elements of the mobility experience such as an individual’s past history of migration, the motivations for moving, the amount of time involved in the move, and the distance traveled during the move have an effect on shortand long-term neighborhood attachment patterns independent of residential stability and investment predictors. The findings imply that psychosocial factors such as familiarity with the environment, increased premove exposure to the new environment, and perceived control during instances of transition have some impact on individuals’ postmove attitudes and behaviors, and suggest that researchers should look beyond traditional “types of people” explanations of urban neighborhood attachment.     

Targeting Spatial Clusters of Elderly Consumers in the U.S.A

For business demographers, a noteworthy aspect of national population aging is the course of its onset at local scales, such as neighborhoods and individual city blocks. Across the U. S., particular neighborhoods are evolving through aging in place into de facto retirement communities, populated by elderly residents who continue to live independently. An increasingly common manifestation of this development is the so-called naturally occurring retirement community (NORC)—a neighborhood where adults have stayed on and grown old while younger people have drifted away. NORCs materialize gradually over time where initial cohorts settle in close proximity and age in place, while subsequent younger cohorts move away. These settings offer novel opportunities for prolonging independent living in old age. They constitute distinctive readymade consumer markets as well, especially for businesses that rely on word of mouth. We present a general approach to spotting NORCs. We then consider such enclaves as potential target markets, both for community planners aiming to centralize service delivery to the elderly and for businesses offering types of services that can be bundled profitably for these residential concentrations of elderly.     

A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability

A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets.     

Capturing Multidimensionality: What does a Human Wellbeing Conceptual Framework Add to the Analysis of Vulnerability?

Much research to date has tended to view vulnerability by discipline or sector, despite the fact that individuals and households experience multiple, interacting and sometimes compound vulnerabilities. However, cross-disciplinary thinking on vulnerability has emerged. At the same time, also emergent is an alternative to traditional thinking on poverty, which shifts the focus away from poverty as a static set of deprivations towards poverty as a dynamic set of interacting material, relational and subjective aspects of life in a human wellbeing perspective. The contribution of this paper is to bring together these two strands of thinking in order to explore the ways in which a human wellbeing conceptual framework might contribute to the analysis of vulnerability in terms of better capturing the multidimensionality of vulnerability.     

The Location of Displaced New Orleans Residents in the Year After Hurricane Katrina

Using individual data from the restricted version of the American Community Survey, we examined the displacement locations of pre–Hurricane Katrina adult residents of New Orleans in the year after the hurricane. More than one-half (53 %) of adults had returned to—or remained in—the New Orleans metropolitan area, with just under one-third of the total returning to the dwelling in which they resided prior to Hurricane Katrina. Among the remainder, Texas was the leading location of displaced residents, with almost 40 % of those living away from the metropolitan area (18 % of the total), followed by other locations in Louisiana (12 %), the South region of the United States other than Louisiana and Texas (12 %), and elsewhere in the United States (5 %). Black adults were considerably more likely than nonblack adults to be living elsewhere in Louisiana, in Texas, and elsewhere in the South. The observed race disparity was not accounted for by any of the demographic or socioeconomic covariates in the multinomial logistic regression models. Consistent with hypothesized effects, we found that following Hurricane Katrina, young adults (aged 25–39) were more likely to move further away from New Orleans and that adults born outside Louisiana were substantially more likely to have relocated away from the state.     

Do People Move When They Say They Will? Inconsistencies in Individual Migration Behavior

Conventional theories of migration decision–making posit that there exists a simple, sequential link between residential satisfaction, mobility intentions and actual moving behavior. Past empirical work, however, has indicated substantial discrepancies between mobility intentions and behavior. This study investigates behavioral inconsistencies in migration using data drawn from the 1985, 1987 and 1989 rounds of the American Housing Survey (AHS). Mobility is inferred by comparing occupants of the same housing units in two consecutive surveys. The results show that a substantial number of people do not realize their intention to move and many move unexpectedly; with or without prior intentions to move, movers and stayers appear to differ significantly in terms of their sociodemographic characteristics. The extent to which individuals act consistently with their intentions also differs along with their attributes (e.g., tenure, age, education and gender). The paper discusses possible reasons for behavioral inconsistencies in migration based on recent developments in social psychological theories of human behavior.     

On solutions of the cohort parity analysis model

"The cohort parity analysis (CPA) model of David et al. (1988) is studied formally as a three-state parity-progression table. The general solution is found in a form of convex combination of a finite set of solutions which are described explicitly. A parameterization is suggested for a broad subset of solutions which includes two extreme solutions studied in the original publication and maintains the dimension of the entire set. The CPA solution is also treated as a random variate distributed uniformly on the set of all possible solutions. An algorithm is given for computing the marginal distributions without Monte Carlo simulation." (EXCERPT)     

Model-based incomplete data analysis with an application to occupational mobility and migration accounts

"The overriding goal of this paper has been to move the analysis of incomplete data in the direction of modeling and away from the predominantly algorithmic approach that is commonly used. The framework for the modeling approach, including the use of the log-linear model, was originally suggested by Willekens (1982). This paper builds on his work by: (1) providing a justification for the use of synthetic data, (2) highlighting some of the key statistical qualities of the log-linear model in a GLM framework, and (3) proposing a path diagram to structure the analysis." The author includes an application to incomplete occupational migration and mortality tables for the United States. (EXCERPT)     

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos

We consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, we obtain numerical results on the qualitative behaviour of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies — assumed to be characterised by low and high savings rate respectively — are characterised by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.This work was supported by a grant from the Austrian Academy of Sciences. G. Feichtinger acknowledges financial support from the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P 9608-SOZ. The helpful comments of C. H. Hommes, G. Lee and of an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Duration of Residence and Prospective Migration: The Evaluation of a Stochastic Model

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the empirical accuracy of the Cornell mobility model. Migration is formulated as a stochastic process governed by non-stationary probabilities: during a given interval of time, an individual is presumed to undergo a risk of migrating that decreases as he continues to reside in the same community. The major hypothesis, then, is that a person's propensity to move declines as his duration of residence increases.A secondary hypothesis proposes that age interacts with this relationship. Longitudinal data (5,000 residential histories from the Netherlands system of population registers) were analyzed and translated into prospective probabilities that are age- and duration-specific.Both hypotheses were substantiated. Specifically, the relationship is negative, curvilinear, and varies significantly by age. To facilitate simulation analysis of the model, the relationships found in the data are summarized in a set of logarithmic prediction equations.The findings of this paper underscore the fundamental limitation of stationary probability models in portraying migration and suggest that the non-stationary alternative is a more accurate formulation. More generally, processes of change which bear only a formal resemblance to migration (for example, brand switching or attitudinal change) may be governed by a principle of cumulative stability too. The evidence warrants further inquiry into the applicability of the model to other social processes where inertialike factors operate.