Savings–age profiles in the UK

We used UK Family Expenditure Surveys to analyse the relationship between savings and age structure. We address two key problems: the sample selection bias when data refer to households and not individuals, and the treatment of pension income when drawing inferences from individuals' savings–age profiles about the relationship between an economy's savings and age structure. Our principal findings are that household data exaggerate savings rates of young adults and the elderly whilst underestimating those of 45- to 60-year-olds, and individual saving rates follow more closely the ‘hump shape’ of the life-cycle model, although the savings rates of the elderly remain positive for some ages.

Does time preference change with age?

This study looks at compensating differentials in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to derive estimates of the levels of time preference for labor force participants in each of 15 waves of data from 1979 to 1994. With these estimates the evolution of time preference over the life course is described. Future utility among labor force participants appears to be valued more highly by subjects who are older, more schooled, white, or male. Controlling for schooling level, a higher IQ is associated with a preference for more immediate rewards.If social rates of time preference are correlated with individual rates of time preference then population aging could create intergenerational asymmetries in the social rate of time preference.This phenomenon could make the optimal investments of young populations appear selfish to future generations that are older.Support from Hopkins Population Center (R24) is gratefully acknowledged. I am thankful for helpful comments received from Jim Burgess, Mike Grossman, Bruce Hamilton, Fritz Laux, Athanasios Orphanides, Katie Roche, and Eric Slade. All errors are my own. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The solution of time‐dependent population models

We analyze the dynamics of age‐structured population renewal when vital rates make a transition in a finite time interval from arbitrary initial values to any specified final values. The general solution to the renewal equation in such cases is obtained. This solution describes the birth sequence explicitly, and also leads to a general formula for population momentum. We show that the duration of the transition determines the complexity of the solution for the birth sequence. For transitions that are completed in a time smaller than the maximum age of reproduction, we show that the classical Lotka solution found in every textbook also applies, with a small modification, to the time‐dependent case. Our results substantially extend previous work that has often focused on instantaneous transitions or on slow and infinitely persistent change in vital rates.     

Has a discipline come of age when it can boast several competing dictionaries?

The authors review three recently published reference works in demography: the International Encyclopedia of Population, edited by John A. Ross; the Dictionary of Demography, by Roland Pressat, edited by Christopher Wilson; and the Dictionary of Demography: Terms, Concepts, and Institutions, by William and Renee Petersen. They also consider what the publication of such works tells us about the development of demography as a discipline.     

Changes in assortative mating: The impact of age and education, 1970–1890

Data from the U.S. Census and Current Population Survey are used to examine trends in the propensity to marry or to cohabit by the age and educational attainment of potential partners. Marriage rates declined sharply across all age and educational combinations between 1970 and 1980 and declined more sharply for less-educated persons between 1980 and 1990. The rise in cohabitation compensated somewhat for the decline in marriage rates, but the compensation was unequally spread among age and educational combinations. Highly educated men were more likely, and highly educated women were no more or less likely, to marry than to cohabit with less-educated partners in 1970 and 1980. By 1990, however, educational assortative-mating patterns between these two types of unions were similar. In 1990, marriages and cohabitations involving women who were better educated than their partners were more common than those involving women who were less educated than their partners. In addition, men and women in their early 20s tend to have partners better educated than themselves, but persons in their 30s tend to cross the less-than-high-school/ more-than-high-school educational barrier when partners differ in educational attainment.     

Should i stay or should i go? The impact of age norms on leaving home

This article studies the association between social norms and the timing of leaving home. Although largely overlooked by most recent studies on leaving home, life-course theory suggests that age norms and age grading influence life-course decisions in general and leaving home in particular. We use Fishbein and Ajzen's model of "reasoned behavior" to integrate this strand of research with the more individualistic view that dominates current thinking. Using data from a Dutch panel survey, we use a Cox regression model with a control for sample selection to estimate the association between perceived age norms and the timing of leaving home. We show that perceived opinions of parents are associated with the actual timing of leaving the parental home but that societal norms and friends' norms concerning the timing of leaving home are not. In addition, the timing of leaving home is also associated with the perceived costs and benefits of leaving home and with the perceived housing market situation.     

Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930–1990

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973).     

Repetitive Visiting as a Pre‐return Transnational Strategy among Youthful Trinidadian Returnees

Abstract

This paper will develop and illustrate a concept of institutional viscosity to balance the more agentive concept of motility with a theoretical account of structural conditions. The argument articulates with two bodies of work: broad social theory of reflexivity as negotiating agency and social structures; and sociology of mobility and mobility systems . It then illustrates the concept of viscosity as a variable (low to high viscosity) through two empirical studies conducted in the sociology of education that help demonstrate how degrees of viscosity interact with degrees of motility, and how this interaction can impact on motility over time. The first study explored how Australian Defence Force families cope with their children’s disrupted education given frequent forced relocations. The other study explored how middle class professionals relate to career and educational opportunities in rural and remote Queensland. These two life conditions have produced very different institutional practices to make relocations thinkable and doable, by variously constraining or enabling mobility. In turn, the degrees of viscosity mobile individuals meet with over time can erode or elevate their motility.     

Explaining age differences in women’s emotional well-being: The role of subjective experiences of aging

ABSTRACT

Our study examines explanations for the “paradox” of older women’s better emotional well-being compared with younger women. We consider the role of subjective experiences of aging in a society that devalues older women. Using a sample of women (n = 872) from the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States (1995–1996 and 2004–2006), we examine the role of five components of the subjective experience of aging in explaining older women’s better emotional well-being compared with younger women: age identity, conceptions of the timing of middle age, aging attitudes, aging anxieties, and self-assessed physiological changes. We find that, compared with women 50–54 years old, those 35–39 years old report lower positive affect, and those 25–49 report higher negative affect. These patterns are partially explained by younger women’s greater anxiety about declines in health and attractiveness and older women’s more youthful identities. Our study underscores the value of considering the implications of our ageist and sexist society for women’s emotional well-being across adulthood.     

Genetic influence on age at first birth of female twins born in the UK, 1919–68

Using a sample of monozygotic (945, 42?per cent) and dizygotic (1,329, 58?per cent) twin pairs born 1919–68 in the UK, we applied innovative tobit models to investigate genetic and environmental influences on age at first birth (AFB). We found that a substantial part (40?per cent) of the variation in AFB is caused by latent family characteristics. Genetic dispositions (26?per cent) play a more important role than the shared environment of siblings (14?per cent), with the non-shared environment/measurement error having the strongest influence (60?per cent). Like previous studies, this study reveals marked changes in estimates over time, and supports the idea that environmental constraints (war or economic crisis) suppress and normative freedom (sexual revolution) promotes the activation of genetic predispositions that affect fertility. We show that the exclusion of censored information (i.e., on the childless) by previous studies biased their results.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1056823     

The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis

In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age–period–cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925–79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980.     

Connected: Exploring the Extraordinary Demand for Telecoms Services in Post‐collapse Somalia

Abstract

In this article, I examine the extraordinary demand for telecoms services that lies behind the emergence of Somalia’s telecoms industry in the wake of state collapse. I argue that this demand is not only driven by the size of the collapse‐induced Somali diaspora and the astounding amount of money they remit each year, but is a reflection of an ethno‐national logic that has shaped the ways in which Somalis at home and abroad have dealt with unpredictability in the wake of state collapse – by staying mobile and staying connected. In turn, I conclude that this created an extraordinary demand for telecoms services in post‐collapse Somalia for the very reason that telecoms were necessary to adapt and use these culturally and historically informed strategies on a global scale.     

An age–period–cohort analysis of cancer incidence among the oldest old,Utah 1973–2002

We used age–period–cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65–99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85–89 age group followed by declines at ages 90–99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100.     

Exploring the Fear of Birth Scale in a mixed population of women of childbearing age—A Swedish pilot study

Aim

The aim of this pilot study was to explore the Fear of Birth Scale in a mixed sample of women of childbearing age, by investigating the levels of childbirth fear and the content of women’s thoughts when completing the scale.

Impact of low fertility and early age at sterilisation on women’s formal education and skill development in South India

This paper examines the impact of low fertility and early age at sterilisation on women’s formal education and skill development in South India. Multilevel ordered-logit modelling of pseudo-cohort data re-organised from the three rounds of National Family Health Survey, and thematic analysis of qualitative data collected from Tamil Nadu and Kerala states showed no evidence of women’s resumption of formal education or uptake of skill development training in the post-sterilisation and post-childcare period. While resuming formal education in the post-sterilisation and post-childcare period is harder to achieve for various individual, household, community and policy reasons, there is greater preparedness and support for women to undertake skill development training. As low fertility and early age at sterilisation are widely regarded as the emerging reproductive norm in India, post-sterilisation and -childcare women will be a significant population group both in number and in proportional terms. No government policies or programs have so far recognised this group. India’s new government should consider targeted skill development programs for post-sterilisation and -childcare women appropriate to their social, economic and educational levels. An important contribution of the family planning program, particularly female sterilisation, for the economic and social development of the family and the wider society will otherwise be lost.     

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age,period, and cohort variations

In this paper, I examine temporal changes in U.S. adult mortality by chronic disease cause of death and by sex over a 40-year period in the second half of the twentieth century. I apply age-period-cohort (APC) analyses that combine conventional approaches and a new method of model estimation to simultaneously account for age, period, and cohort variations in mortality rates for four leading causes of deaths, including heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and breast cancer. The results show that large reductions in mortality since the late 1960s continued well into the late 1990s and that these reductions were predominately contributed by cohort effects. Cohort effects are found to differ by specific causes of death examined, but they generally show substantial survival improvements. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to demographic theories of mortality reductions, differential cohort accumulation of health capital and lifetime exposures to socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors, and period changes in diagnostic techniques and medical treatment.     

The quiver is full: metonymy and affiliation in 19 Kids and Counting’s depiction of pregnancy loss in advanced maternal age

Abstract

This investigation into the cultural dynamics of gendered, aging bodies attends to a mediated representation of what contemporary biomedicine defines as pregnancy in “advanced maternal age” (AMA). We offer a feminist rhetorical analysis of an episode of TLC’s 19 Kids and Counting entitled “A Duggar Loss,” where 45-year-old matriarch Michelle Duggar experiences pregnancy loss. In the episode, age is reconfigured in discussions of AMA pregnancy through a metonymic substitution and slippage of risk discourses, pre-natal self-care, and technological interaction. Moreover, “A Duggar Loss” mobilizes strategies of expansive affiliation around and through reproductive choice, which appears to align with feminist principles of reproductive autonomy despite the family’s ties to the Quiverfull Movement. This work contributes to feminist studies of aging bodies by suggesting that representations of advanced maternal age pregnancy remain a central, yet undertheorized subject in formulating powerful trans-ideological affiliations that can undermine progressive reproductive politics.     

‘It Was the Right Time To Do It’: Moving House,the Life‐Course and Kairos

While much has been written on the two issues of home and of residential mobility, little has been written on the experience of moving house. This paper aims to fill this gap. While work on residential mobility has tended to conceptualise it in terms of transitions in the life‐course as triggering moves, this paper explores how these moves are experienced and narrated by those moving house. In doing so, it develops the concept of kairos, an ancient Greek notion of time meaning the ‘right time’ to act. I argue that people who move house narrate their moving experiences in such terms: they saw an opportunity to move home, an opportunity that arose at just the right time and their timely actions meant that they seized the moment. It is through such narratives of kairos that homes are created and (re‐)constituted.