Estimates Of U.S. Multiple Cause Life Tables

Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These “multiple cause” life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk eliminated is that of the cause of death only in its occurrence as the underlying cause of death. An evaluation is made of the possible effects of the multiple cause data on our perception of the relative importance of the major causes of death. The reconceptualization of mortality risks made possible by the multiple cause of death data is also assessed in terms of its providing further insight into the “Taeuber paradox.”     

Estimating Increment-Decrement Life Tables with Multiple Covariates from Panel Data: The Case of Active Life Expectancy*

A fundamental limitation of current multistate life table methodology-evident in recent estimates of active life expectancy for the elderly-is the inability to estimate tables from data on small longitudinal panels in the presence of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression models for simple state spaces. We argue that Markov panel regression procedures can be used to provide smoothed or graduated group-specific estimates of transition probabilities that are more stable across short age intervals than those computed directly from sample data. We then join these estimates with increment-decrement life table methods to compute group-specific total, active, and dependent life expectancy estimates. To illustrate the methods, we describe an empirical application to the estimation of such life expectancies specific to sex, race, and education (years of school completed) for a longitudinal panel of elderly persons. We find that education extends both total life expectancy and active life expectancy. Education thus may serve as a powerful social protective mechanism delaying the onset of health problems at older ages.     

A reducible four-parameter system of model life tables

Abstract In this paper a four-parameter extension of Brass's relational system of model life tables is suggested that (1) matches a wide range of empirical age patterns of mortality, (2) is easy to apply, especially to partial life tables, and (3) contains demographically meaningful parameters. A test of the model on a set of 62 empirical life tables indicates that four parameters are necessary and sufficient for fitting a wide range of mortality patterns. A further test on an historical series of Swedish life tables reveals a consistent pattern of mortality change. Examination of the parameters for a set of geographicallyrelated life tables suggests a way to define families of life tables. Identification of such temporal and spatial relationships allows the model to be reduced to a form with twoor three-parameters for application to incomplete or inaccurate data.     

Gender Differences in Disability-Free Life Expectancy for Selected Risk Factors and Chronic Conditions in Canada

SUMMARY

This article shows how mortality and morbidity patterns differ for women and men 45 years of age and older. The impact on disability-free life expectancy was calculated for selected risk factors and chronic conditions: low income, low education, abnormal body mass index, lack of physical activity, smoking, cancer, diabetes, and arthritis. For each factor, the expected number of years free of disability was calculated for men and women using multi-state life tables. In terms of disability-free life expectancy, the greatest impacts on affected women were for diabetes (14.1 years), arthritis (8.8 years), and physical inactivity (6.0 years), while for affected men, the greatest impacts were for diabetes (10.5 years), smoking (6.9 years), arthritis (6.5 years), and cancer (6.4 years). The implications of these results are discussed from the perspective of developing programs designed to improve population health status.     

Mixed estimation of old‐age mortality

The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of linear models. We extend the method to cover general maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the mixed estimator can be represented approximately as a weighted average of the purely data based estimator and the auxiliary estimator. The methods can be applied to the analysis of the old‐age mortality via logistic and Poisson regression. A major advantage of the mixed estimator is the simplicity with which it can incorporate partial prior information. Moreover, no special software is needed in the fitting. We show how the targeting methods of Coale and Kisker can be represented as mixed estimation in a natural way that is more flexible than the original proposal. We also derive empirical estimates of the target information based on pooled data from several countries with high quality data. We consider the mortality of Finland at ages 80 +, study the reliability of the evidence of mortality crossover, and derive estimates of life expectancy at age 100.     

我国年龄组平均预期寿命变动的实证研究

平均预期寿命是国内外评价一个国家或地区人口健康状况的重要指标。国家统计局只公布0岁组平均预期寿命,而要进一步研究,则需要分年龄组资料。利用1995年、2005年全国1%人口抽样数据编制分性别、分城乡的完全生命表,在此基础上定量分析得出:我国各年龄组平均预期寿命,女性>男性,城镇>乡村;暂时平均预期寿命的相对增长速度,1995~2005年快于1981~1995年,女性快于男性;老年组死亡率的降低对0岁组平均预期寿命的贡献率最大。     

A relational technique for estimating the age‐specific mortality pattern from grouped data

This paper presents a new technique of expanding an abridged life table. This technique is a non‐parametric one, which relates the probabilities of dying of the abridged table to those of a standard complete table. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the new technique we use it, as well as two other techniques, for expanding empirical abridged data sets. According to the results of our calculations the new method proves very efficient in producing complete life tables from grouped data, in many cases producing more accurate results than the other two methods in spite of its simplicity.     

The Level and Age Pattern of Mortality in Bandafassi (Eastern Senegal): Results From a Small-Scale and Intensive Multi-Round Survey

The data collected in the Bandafassi demographic study in Eastern Senegal, a small-scale intensive and experimental follow-up survey of a population of about 7,000 in 1983, were analysed to derive an estimated life table. The use of multi-round surveys, combined with anthropological methods to estimate ages and collect genealogies, has resulted in unusually reliable data. Taking into account the uncertainty of the estimates due to the small size of the population, mortality was high, with life-expectancy at birth close to 31 years; a pattern of infant and child mortality close to that observed in other rural areas of Senegal, with a very high level or mortality between ages six months and three years; a seasonal pattern in child mortality with two high-risk periods, the rainy season and the end of the dry season; an adult mortality pattern similar to that described in model life tables for developed countries; no significant difference by sex or ethnic group. The Bandafassi population study and a few similar studies suggest that one possible way to improve demographic estimates in countries where vital registration systems are defective would be to set up a sample of population laboratories where intensive methods of data collection would continue for extended periods.     

Estimating internal migration from incomplete data using model multiregional life tables

A principal feature of current methods of estimating demographic measures from incomplete data is the use of model life tables that approximate the mortality of a region for which reliable mortality data are unavailable. Observed decennial rates of survivorship may be used to identify out of a set of such model life tables one that best matches the observed data. This paper introduces the concept of a modelmultiregional life table and outlines a procedure for selecting an appropriate one using place-of-birth-by-residence data.     

On the Survival of Centenarians and the Span of Life

It has been argued in the literature that the observed mortality crossover among older black Americans relative to the white population is a result of ‘differential early mortality which selects the least robust persons from the disadvantaged population at relatively earlier ages so that, at advanced ages, the disadvantaged population has proportionately more robust persons’ (Kenneth G. Manton). The authors examine the plausibility of the observed black mortality crossover and the heterogeneity argument supporting its existence. In addition to citing evidence from the literature, they use life tables from various countries known to have good mortality data to explore the relation between mortality in childhood and at younger adult ages and mortality in old age for cohorts and periods. Analysis suggests that the association between childhood and old-age mortality for cohorts is positive, implying that observed mortality crossovers are produced by deficient data rather than population heterogeneity.     

“人均预期寿命提高1岁”的实证研究

温家宝总理在政府工作报告中首次提出十二五时期"人均预期寿命提高1岁"的目标。本文在生命表数据基础上,通过计算平均预期寿命贡献率并进行相关分析与回归分析后得出:我国目前平均预期寿命虽然已高于绝大多数发展中国家,但其绝对增速正逐渐放慢。而降低60～90岁年龄段老年人口死亡率、提高居民消费水平、缩小家庭规模、迁移有条件的离退休老人到低海拔地区养老是实现人均预期寿命提高1岁目标的有效路径。     

A Comparative Study of Handicap-free Life Expectancy of China in 1987 and 2006

After the first large scale national sampling survey on handicapped persons in 1987, China conducted its second national sampling survey in 2006. Using the data from these two surveys and the national life tables, we computed and compared the expected years of life free of handicapped condition by the Sullivan method. The expected years of life lived with handicap for the Chinese population increased from 4.87 years for males and 5.81 years for females in 1987 to 5.55 years and 6.32 years in 2006, respectively. The same trend was observed for people in working ages (15–64) and old ages (65+). However, the expected years of life lived with handicap decreased for children (0–14). Our results also showed that the effect of skeletal handicap increased notably for both sexes. Healthy life expectancy is an important indicator in measuring quality of life of a population. Our study utilized this measurement to quantify one aspect of quality of life of the Chinese population.     

Global Patterns of Healthy Life Expectancy for Older Women

SUMMARY

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

The development and use of demographic models

In this review, we first examine two classical demographic models - conventional life tables and stable populations - and a modern generalization of stable population theory; we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules of mortality, nuptialitiy, marital fertility, fertility, and migration that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations about the purposes and uses of demographic models.     

Mortality in England and Wales from 1848 to 1947

This is a survey of the changing causes of death in England and Wales during the past 100 years. Based on the published mortality statistics of the General Register Office the framework of the survey is a series of specially prepared tables of death rates by sex, age and cause of death for the periods 1848–72, 1901–10, 1921, 1931, 1939 and 1947. Adjustments were made wherever necessary to compensate for changes in medical nomenclature and in the statistical classification of disease.

After allowance has been made for the changing age structure of the population, the male death rate at all ages in 1947 was 42% of the rate in 1846–50, and the female rate 35 %. Maximum improvement was among girls aged 5–9 years, whose death rate in 1947 was 9% of the rate 100 years before.

In 1848–72 the group to which were allocated the largest proportion of the deaths at all ages were the infectious diseases with one-third of the total; and these were followed by the respiratory, nervous and digestive diseases. In 1947, on the other hand, diseases of the circulatory system came first with rather more than one-third of the total at all ages, and these were followed by cancer.

Changes in proportionate mortality rates from various causes have been examined at successive ages from infancy to old age. There was a decline in proportionate mortality from the infectious diseases other than tuberculosis, but increased mortality from tuberculosis in the younger age groups and from violence, circulatory diseases and cancer.

The trends of absolute mortality from the various causes were also studied. The reduction in total mortality was such that whereas there were half a million deaths of civilians registered in England and Wales in 1947, the total would have been over a million had the death rates of 1848–72 still prevailed.

The article concludes with a brief review of the factors responsible for the changes that have taken place.     

Degrouping mortality data for the elderly

Proposed in this paper is a technique for estimating, from coarsly grouped empirical death data, the age‐specific numbers of deaths for the elderly population. This question is primarily of interest in countries where the empirical data are available only in a grouped form, given usually in quinquennial age groups and in a large open‐ended interval for the ages 85 and over. The main reason that the official data are given in such a form in some countries of Southern Europe and in the Third World is the existence of heaping in the empirical data, i.e. misstatements in age recording, usually rounding to the nearest integer divisible with five. Our evaluation of the method on Swedish mortality data shows that the technique proposed can be efficiently applied to period mortality data.     

Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality

This paper presents and discusses new model life tables at very low mortality, which make use of age-specific death rates from the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. These life tables fit recorded death rates in very low mortality populations better than do the existing ones at expectations of life of 77.5 and 80 years. The old tables incorporate too-high mortality at the higher ages and in infancy and they incorporate regional differences that no longer exist. The new tables "close out" the mortality schedules above age 80 more realistically. The convergence of age patterns of mortality at very high life expectancies in populations that used to conform to different families is in itself of demographic interest. Some convergence may perhaps be expected. Sullivan (1973) found that, in Taiwan, the comparison of mortality at ages 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in the late 1950s showed higher mortality at the younger ages relative to the ensuing 30-year age interval than was found in any of the models, including the South model, which has the highest relative mortality from ages 1-5 among the 4 regional patterns. Then, in the late 1960s, the relation of mortality at 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in Taiwan fell to a position intermediate between the West and South tables. Sullivan found in data on mortality by cause of death a large reduction in mortality from diarrhea and enteritis, no doubt as a result of environmental sanitation. Mortality from these causes is concentrated among young children, and reduction in deaths from these causes would naturally diminish the excess mortality in this age interval. The East pattern, characterized by very high mortality in infancy (but not from 1-5), may be the result of the prevalence of early weaning or avoidance of breast feeding altogether in the populations characterized by this pattern. As health conditions have improved, evidenced by the overall design of mortality, these special factors are diminished or erased. Model life tables at these very low mortality levels have different uses from most applications of model life tables at higher mortality. The use of model tables to estimate accurate schedules of mortality when the basic data are incomplete or inaccurate is less relevant in this range of mortality levels.     

Stable growth in native‐dependent multistate population dynamics

Users of multistate life tables and projections have recognized that the Markovian assumptions underlying such models are unduly restrictive and should be relaxed whenever data permit. Efforts to include the influences of previous occupancies have included the incorporation of place‐of‐birth dependence. This paper addresses the stable growth properties of such generalized multistate models. It shows how place‐of‐birth‐specific stable growth measures can be calculated without projection simply by solving the characteristic equation. An example using Canadian data illustrates the argument.     

Changes in mortality and life expectancy: Some methodological issues

Measuring and explaining the effects of mortality changes on life expectancy has been discussed for the past three decades. Different approaches have been proposed using discrete or continuous methods. Two basic ideas underlie these approaches. The first compares two different mortality schedules and quantifies the contribution of each age group to the increase in life expectancy. The second analyzes how the progress in the mortality schedule translates into progress in life expectancy. This paper discusses and compares the approaches proposed by the United Nations (1982), Arriaga (1984), Pollard (1982, 1988), and Vaupel (1986), identifying their problems, advantages, and the types of situations where each one can best be applied.     

European Perspectives on Healthy Aging in Women

SUMMARY

Using data from the 1994 European Community Household Panel, we compare active life expectancy differentials at age 65 years between women and men in 12 European countries. We seek to explain the extent to which differences are a reflection of gender differentials in life expectancy at 65 years or reflect differences in active life expectancy earlier in life. Considerable variation in the gender differentials in both total and active life expectancies at age 65 years exist within Europe, with some countries experiencing 20% lower life expectancy at age 65 years for men compared to women. Some evidence was found to suggest that gender differentials in active life expectancy may continue from younger ages through to later life.