Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by 2 recent US censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust US age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

The mathematics of sex and marriage,revisited

We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two‐sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten‐year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use.     

Cohort Parity Analysis and Fertility Transition Dynamics: Reconstructing Historical Trends in Fertility Control from a Single Census

The Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA) method for the indirect measurement of the extent of marital fertility control makes use of parity distribution data of the kind reported, for specified marriage duration and marriage-age (or current age) groups of women, by a fertility census. Corresponding to every such distribution, CPA yields efficient upper and lower bounds on the proportion of controllers in the specified cohort, as well as bounds for the parity distribution of the controllers. As the women who belong to different marriage cohorts are observed at different durations of marriage in a census, it is possible to infer inter-cohort trends in the extent of fertility control (at some specified marriage duration(s)) if one knows the time pattern of the adoption of control among the members of each cohort. It is shown in this paper that robust estimates of the intracohort diffusion pattern can be obtained from the census cross-section itself, by supplementing the basic assumptions of the CPA framework with a plausible assumption about the behaviour of the ‘representative’ controller in a given cohort. The estimation technique is illustrated by applications to data for married women in urban Eire from the Census of Ireland in 1911, and to native white married women in the U.S. South from the U.S. Census of 1910.     

Fertility decline and female chances of marriage in Malaya

A feature of the demographic pattern of post-World War II Malaya has been its high rate of natural growth, which reached 31/2 per cent per annum in the mid-1950s. However, the average age at marriage of the female population has been rising for most of this period, and since 1956 there has been a considerable and sustained fall in the birth rate.

In this paper simple models are developed to show that in a closed population a continuing high rate of population growth is incompatible with a pattern of universal female marriage, monogamy and a culturally imposed age difference of considerable size between spouses. The demonstration provided by the models is then offered as at least a partial explanation of the fertility and female marriage trends in contemporary Malaya. Discrepancies between the population of Malaya and the models have to be taken into account. A pattern of polygamous and unstable marriage does exist amongst the Malaysians and, to a much lesser extent, in the Chinese community. Furthermore, recent years have witnessed the passing of the large surplus of single males built up in the Chinese sector of the population during the years oflarge scale immigration. Such a transition is well under way in the Indian community too.

It is suggested that a substantial average age gap between spouses may be an aspect of many contemporary societies which reacts against the persistence of extremely high rates of natural increase. Even where demographic pressures in the ‘marriage market’ act towards a lessening of this gap, there is a cultural lag, during which period many females are forced to marry late or not at all.

Most of the study was made on a pan-Malayan basis (i.e. combining the Federation of Malaya and the State of Singapore) to achieve comparability with earlier censuses and as a recognition that with unrestricted migration between these areas they still form a single demographic unit. The terms Malaya and Malayans will be used when referring to this area or its inhabitants. The so-called major races of the country are Malaysians, Chinese and Indians. The first will be used in accordance with the census definition to cover the indigenous inhabitants of Malaya or the Malay Archipelago (Indonesia, British Borneo and the Philippines). As most of these people are either indigenous or have been in Malays for some generations they are usually called Malays (except for the aborigines). However, the all-embracing census term will be used here. Indians, in conformity with most local usage, will be used for the groups classified as Indians and Pakistanis at the 1957 censuses of the Federation of Malaya and Singapore. The group was very small.     

Same-Sex Marriage and the Assimilationist Dilemma: A Research Agenda on Marriage Equality and the Future of LGBTQ Activism,Politics, Communities,and Identities

ABSTRACT

This special issue of the Journal of Homosexuality, examines the impact of the marriage equality movement and the resulting landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision, Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) that legalized same-sex marriage in the U.S., on lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) activism, politics, communities, and identities. The articles in this issue examine the complicated ways in which the discourse used in same-sex marriage court cases is related to heteronormative discursive frames; the lived reality of married same-sex couples and the complex ways in which they think about marriage and heteronormativity; the ways that heteronormativity is racialized, which affects how African Americans perceive the impact of same-sex marriage on their lives; how same-sex marriage has influenced public opinion and the likelihood of anti-gay backlash; and the impact of same-sex marriage on family law. In this article, I draw on the empirical research from these articles to develop a theoretical framework that expands a multi-institutional (MIP) approach to understanding social movements and legal change. I build on and develop three conceptual tools: the assimilationist dilemma, discursive integration and cooptation, and truth regime. I conclude by laying out an agenda for future research on the impact of same-sex marriage on LGBTQ movements, politics, identities, and communities.     

Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams

This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. and Mexico censuses.     

Large,But Adaptable? A Successful Population Policy and Its Long Term Effects

A restrictive population policy led to almost doubling the number of newborns from one year to another in Romania in the 1960s. Twenty years later, this large generation (of women) enters a marriage market with few eligible older mates, in a society where marriage is a must. In this article, I analyze this social experiment within the broader frame of the marriage squeeze/two sex models. Using various data from censuses and surveys, I argue that the marriage market is flexible even when is confronted with disproportionately large cohorts. If the social pressure toward marriage is strong, the marriage rates do not necessarily fall, but the mating age patterns change.

The multistate life table with duration‐dependence

A method for generalizing the multistate, or increment‐decrement, life table to include rates which depend upon duration of exposure to risk, as well as upon age, is proposed. The method is built upon the linear approximation, called the linear integration hypothesis, developed mainly by Rogers and his colleagues. Although the use of rates indexed by duration categories leads to a substantial increase in the state space of the model, it is possible to arrange the rates in such a way that matrices to be inverted are no larger than those encountered in the usual multistate life table. In the more general approach it is possible to derive several new summary indices of the life‐table cohort's history, such as the mean and median time in current status, at any age. The method is illustrated using a simple four‐state marital‐status model which has appeared often in the literature; here, rates of divorce and widowhood vary by duration of marriage as well as age.     

Windsor and Perry: Reactions of Siblings in Same-Sex and Heterosexual Couples

The U.S. Supreme Court decisions in U.S. v. Windsor (570 U.S. 307) and Hollingsworth v. Perry (570 U.S. 399) created a focal point for public discussion of marriage equality for same-sex couples. This article reports the results of an exploratory study of the reactions of individuals currently or previously in same-sex couple relationships and a heterosexual sibling who is currently or previously married (N = 371) to the Supreme Court decisions. Thematic content analysis was used to explore participants’ responses to an open-ended question on a survey. Reactions of individuals from same-sex couples revealed the following themes: (1) longitudinal perspectives on the advancement of rights for same-sex couples; (2) emotional responses celebrating the decisions or expressing relief; (3) affirmation of their relationship or rights; (4) practical consequences of the extension of rights; and (5) minority stress related to anticipation of future prejudice or discrimination. Themes in the heterosexual siblings’ responses were (1) ally support; (2) flat support without emotion or elaboration; (3) indifference to or ignorance about the decisions; and (4) disapproval of the decisions. These themes are compared and discussed in light of prior research on reactions to marriage restriction debates and marriage (in)equality and family relationships.     

Are There Differences in Anti-Gay Beliefs Among U.S. Veterans and Non-Veterans? Results from the General Social Survey

ABSTRACT

Only since 2011 have sexual minorities been able to serve openly in the U.S. military. The previous anti-gay policies and culture of the military may have increased anti-gay beliefs among veterans. Using data from the 2010–2016 General Social Survey, we tested whether veterans more frequently endorsed anti-gay beliefs than their non-veteran peers. Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics with multiple logistic regression, we tested the associations of veteran status with five anti-gay beliefs (i.e., disallowing a gay person (1) from publicly speaking or (2) teaching at a university, (3) removing a gay-supportive book from a library, (4) whether same-sex sexual relations are wrong, and (5) support of same-sex marriage. Veteran status was associated with greater disagreement with same-sex marriage (B = 0.16, p = 0.033) but not with other anti-gay beliefs. Most anti-gay beliefs among veterans were explained by other sociodemographic factors and may not be inherent to veteran status.     

How responsive is U.S. population growth to immigration? A situational sensitivity analysis

There has been public concern about the effect of immigration on population growth in the U.S. But how responsive is population growth to immigration? This paper examines the sensitivity of intrinsic population growth to immigration and situates such sensitivity in fertility and survival changes. The application of second derivatives on a modified Leslie matrix facilitates the analysis of situational sensitivity of U.S. population growth to immigration. The results show that the sensitivity to immigration is not as influential as the sensitivity to fertility, and that the sensitivity to immigration further depends on changes in fertility and survival.     

Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses

The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population's average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.     

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.     

A reply to Kim's comment

This reply criticizes Kim's note as incorrectly characterizing the essential feature of the method proposed for life table construction. The method suggested for estimating N(a), the number attaining age 2 during the intercensal period, is to make a separate estimate of the contribution to N (a) made by each single-year cohort that attains 'a' during the period between censuses. Each cohort estimate is constructed by interpolation, utilizing as data the recorded number in the relevant single-year cohorts in the 2 censuses. 2 methods of interpolation were proposed. 1 is an iterative procedure that constructs a preliminary life table by linear interpolation for each cohort and then derives more refined interpolation factors from this preliminary life table. The other procedure derives interpolation factors on the assumption that the proportionate distribution of deaths by age as each cohort moves from the earlier to the later census date is the same as the proportionate distribution of deaths by age over the same age range in a model life table. The advantage of the proposed procedure is that it supplies better estimates of N (a) than do alternative methods. The author concedes that a life table calculated from accurately recorded deaths and an accurately enumerated population would ordinarily be superior. However, he also notes that in the absence of registered deaths data, there is no precise enough conventional method to yield accurate values of average intercensal single-year age-specific mortality rates from nothing more than 2 accurate censuses 11 years apart. A common procedure for calculating life expectation at a very advanced age is to calculate the reciprocal of the death rate among persons over the age in question.     

Persistent age distributions for an age‐structured two‐sex population model*

In this paper we formulate an age‐structured two‐sex population model which takes into account a monogamous marriage rule and the duration of marriage. We are mainly concerned with the existence of exponential solutions with a persistent age distribution. First we provide a semigroup method to deal with the time‐evolution problem of our two‐sex population model. Next, by constructing a fixed point mapping, we prove the existence of exponential solutions under homogeneity conditions.     

Some aspects of mating and fertility in the West Indies

This paper deals with certain problems in fertility analysis in the West Indies that have their origin in two characteristics of the populations involved: the diversity of family forms and the imbalance between the sexes. Considerations of the main features of these family types, in terms of a fourfold classification as well as in terms of the threefold classification adopted at recent censuses (single, common law and married), show that many techniques relied on in the study of fertility among European populations are inapplicable to West Indian populations.

The limited data available permit only rough estimates of the rates of formation of different types of unions: but these emphasise that formal marriage usually takes place late in the childbearing period, generally after the couple has had one-or more children, that the formation of keeper unions begins considerably earlier and that the common law type is a transitional state between the looser keeper union and the state of formal marriage.

There seems to be no chance of studying fertility differentials among the several family types in terms of reproduction rates. Census data however provide three measures for this purpose, all of which show that fertility is highest for the married type and lowest for the single or keeper union. These differentials seem to run counter to the more usual pattern of fertility differentials which show fertility lowest among groups of high socio-economic standing.

Imbalance between the sexes is of importance primarily in the problem of arriving at satisfactory indices of fertility, though it may also have contributed somewhat to the establishment of the pattern of low marriage rates. Wide discrepancies between rates based on males and rates based on females appear, both in respect of fertility levels at given points of time and in respect of fertility trends. These discrepancies seem closely related to the imbalance between the sexes in. the reproductive age span. Under these conditions the use of joint G.R.B's clearly offers a more realistic measure of fertility than rates based on either sex.     

Quality and the 2010 Census

The U.S. Census Bureau has a long tradition of evaluating the results of its censuses. This paper presents evaluation results from the 2010 Census, comparing them to earlier results. The paper discusses net coverage at the national and state level, as well as by age, sex, race, and ethnic group. It discusses components of error, including estimated number missed and counted in error. It also presents data on whole-person and item imputation.     

Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study

This study investigates age reporting on the death certificates of older white Americans. We link a sample of death certificates for native-born whites aged 85+ in 1985 to Social Security Administration records and to records of the U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920. When ages in these sources are compared, inconsistencies are found to be minimal, even beyond age 95. Results show little distortion and no systematic biases in the reported age distribution of deaths. To explore the effect of age misreporting on old-age mortality, we estimate "corrected" age-specific death rates by the extinct-generation method for the U.S. white cohort born in 1885. With few exceptions, corrected and uncorrected rates in single years differ by less than 3% and are not systematically biased. When we compare corrected rates with those for the same birth cohort in France, Japan, and Sweden, we find that white American mortality at older ages is exceptionally low.