The micro consequences of macro-level social transition: how did Russians survive in the 1990s?

Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), we investigate the possible links between the Russian mortality crisis of the 1990s and social transition that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results of the analysis demonstrate that Russians’ life chances and their psychological resources and well-being were deteriorated during the transition in the 1990s. The deterioration of life chances and psychological resources and well-being, in conjunction with the high-risk lifestyle of many Russians, increased their risks of dying both directly and indirectly, through a negative impact on their health. This work was completed before the first author started to work in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.     

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40–60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical–demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.