Population growth and economic development

The paper deals with the relationship between the population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia and its republics, covering the period after the Second World War. Yugoslavia is a developing country with a specific demographic and economic structure which makes her unique in Europe. Its territory is comprised of both relatively developed regions where demographic transition is over, and underdeveloped regions with high natural increase of population where the demographic transition is only just beginning. Correlation and regression methods were used to quantify this relationship. The economic development and structural changes are discussed, relating to human factor. An adequate population policy through family planning is stressed as important in obtaining an increased return to scale with a more positive role of demographic factor.     

Family planning and economic development in Shifang County]

According to Marx, population either hinders or expedites economic development. During the late 1950s and early 1960s, Shifang County's population grew unchecked. In the 1960s its annual rate of population growth was higher than the national average. Because the growth of material goods was insufficient in supporting the increase in population, the national economy suffered. In 1977, of those Shifang families in debt to the production brigade, over 80% were multiple children families. Some of these families owed over 1300 yuan after 10 years. Obviously such families cannot be counted on to expand the economy or to increase family incomes. Between 1971 and 1981 when Shifang County began family planning, the average annual rate of growth was lower than the national average. At the same time, material production gradually matched population reproduction, expediting economic development. If, with the current age structure (32.19% are aged 0-15 years; 4.95% are over 65 years; average age is 28.41 years), each family has only 1 child, then the rate of natural growth from 1981-2000 will be 3.6% annually. A yearly decrease in population would enable the County to build up pension funds, save on food, maintain the current standard for acreage allotment and expand accumulated capital.     

Family structure,economic status,and educational attainment

This study examines the effect of family structure on high school graduation by race and gender using data from the first twenty-one waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and recently available retrospective marital histories. The nature of the data allows for a more complete specification of family structure than has been heretofore possible. The analysis tests the hypothesis that the negative effect on educational attainment often associated with living in a mother-only or stepfather family stems primarily from the reduced level of economic resources available to these households. Empirical findings indicate that living with a widowed, divorced, or separated mother has little or no effect on educational attainment once we control for economic status. However, living in a stepfather family appears to have a persistent negative effect on high school graduation rates. Received: 24 July 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

Population aging and endogenous economic growth

We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective

This study analyzes the impact of international migration on economic growth of a source country in a stochastic setting. The model accounts for endogenous fertility decisions and distinguishes between public and private schooling systems. We find that economic growth crucially depends on the international migration since the migration possibility will affect fertility decisions and school expenditures. Relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage the economic growth of a source country in the long run, although a ‘brain gain’ may happen in the short run. Furthermore, the growth rate of a source country under a private education regime will be more sensitive to the probability of migration than a country under a public education regime.

Age structure and economic policy: The case of saving and growth

The age structure of the population affects aggregate saving, which affects growth through investment. Growth in turn is influenced by other age structure effects and feeds back into aggregate saving by well known life cycle mechanisms. Some of these feedbacks are generally ignored in empirical work. Especially the age structure effect on macroeconomic variables is a commonly overlooked, yet easily accessible factor useful for prediction, policy evaluation and design. The connection between age structure, savings and growth in the OECD from 1950 to 1990 illustrates how policy analysis that ignores the macroeconomic effects and feedbacks from age structure changes is liable to lead to faulty and potentially costly conclusions about policy issues.     

A review of midwifery in mainland China: Contemporary developments within historical,economic and sociopolitical contexts

Background

With the recent surging economic and social development in China, midwifery has undergone transformation.

Family planning promotes social and economic development of Dongguan County]

Examination of the effects of family planning indicates 6 major social and economic changes which it has brought about in Dongguan County, China. Peoples' views on family planning have changed: they no longer believe the old notion that "more children guarantee a better life" and have done away with the convention of early marriage and early childbearing. The number of children per household has dropped from an average of 5.9 in the early 1950s to its present average of 2.05. The situation of women has undergone important changes. In the past, women bore many children and few worked outside the household. Today, in the city of Guancheng, 7000 of the 10,000 workers in city-owned factories are women. A 3rd effect of population control is increased production output and a better standard of living. Since 1979 when economic reform began, 90% of the presents built new homes and 70% of the households bought high standard consumer goods. A 4th improvement has been found in the development of education: 99.7% of school-age children attend elementary schools and the rate of graduating students is 98.2%; 92% of preschool children are involved in preschool programs; and 67,000 young women attend various kinds of vocational schools. A more civilized life style and more harmonious family lives have found as a 5th result of family planning measures. Finally, there have also been improvements in welfare and public sanitation facilities. For example, more than 200 water plants have been built in the county and 41% of the population drinks water which meets sanitation standards. It is concluded that the beneficial results of population control reported in this study should be of interest to all those involved in the field of family planning.     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

A stochastic version of the Malthusian Trap Model: consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these 2 growth rates under 2 additional assumptions: 1) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and 2) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these 2 assumptions can explain near-0 correlations between the 2 growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However, it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Family growth,household density,and moving

Residential and family histories collected from a sample of 4,027 couples in their first marriage and living in the Philadelphia-Trenton metropolitan area in 1960 are analyzed to determine the effects of marriage duration and childbearing on moving within the “local area.” Rates of moving decline sharply during the early years of marriage and more slowly after the tenth year. At any given marriage duration, the birth of children is associated with higher rates of moving. If the persons-per-room ratio of non-movers represents an acceptable household density, moving can be shown to be an adjustment mechanism whereby housing space is brought in balance with family needs. When couples who moved during a given three-year period defined in terms of marriage duration are compared with couples who did not move during that period, the movers are found to have had higher initial densities, would have had substantially higher densities had they not moved, but have similar terminal (after move) densities.     

Endogenous fertility,endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies

We examine the effects of child policies on both transitional dynamics and long-term demo-economic outcomes in an overlapping-generations neoclassical growth model à la Chakraborty (J Econ Theory 116(1):119–137, 2004) extended with endogenous fertility under the assumption of weak altruism towards children. The government invests in public health, and an individual’s survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure. We show that multiple development regimes can exist. However, poverty or prosperity does not necessarily depend on the initial conditions, since they are the result of how a child policy is designed. A child tax, for example, can be used effectively to enable those economies that were entrapped in poverty to prosper. There is also a long-term welfare-maximising level of the child tax. We show that a child tax can be used to increase capital accumulation, escape from poverty and maximise long-term welfare also when (a) a public pay-as-you-go pension system is in place and (b) the government issues an amount of public debt. Interestingly, there also exists a couple child tax–health tax that can be used to find the second-best optimum optimorum. In addition, we show that results are robust to the inclusion of decisions regarding the child quantity–quality trade-off under the assumption of impure altruism. In particular, there exists a threshold value of the child tax below (resp. above) which child quality spending is unaffordable (resp. affordable) and different scenarios are in existence.     

On the relationship between population growth and economic development]

People are producers as well as consumers. If we look at only one side and ignore the other, we will be unable to reach impartial conclusions concerning the population problem. An obvious and close relationship exists between population growth and national economic development. If the two do not match each other, there will be numerous contradictory problems. For example, if the population grows too fast, serious social and economic problems will be created, such as a rise in the demand for living resources, an oversupply of the labor force, unemployment, and an insufficient availability of arable land, a shortage of public housing, more demand for health care and public transportation, and cultural and educational enterprises. In addition, a rapid population growth may cause more problems for the natural environment. As a result of overpopulation, the pressure on natural resources will be intensified and may therefore cause damage to the environment and create an ecological imbalance. All the above may bring very serious difficulties and obstacles to the advancement of socialism and modernized constructions. To avoid this, we must try to solve the population problem thoroughly and maintain a balanced relationship between the population growth and economic development.     

分家模式与家庭规模的相关分析

本研究基于全国人口普查数据,建构了农村的分家模式,通过回归分析论证了分家模式与家庭规模之间的相关关系。进而阐述分家模式与家庭规模在历史变动、区域差异等两个维度上的内在关联。文章最后从市场消费、土地利用、能源消耗与碳排放等角度对其影响做简要归纳。     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.     

A Sibling Death in the Family: Common and Consequential

Although a large literature analyzes the determinants of child mortality and suggests policy and medical interventions aimed at its reduction, there is little existing analysis illuminating the consequences of child mortality for other family members. In particular, there is little evidence exploring the consequences of experiencing the death of a sibling on one’s own development and transition to adulthood. This article examines the prevalence and consequences of experiencing a sibling death during one’s childhood using two U.S. data sets. We show that even in a rich developed country, these experiences are quite common, affecting between 5 % and 8 % of the children with one or more siblings in our two data sets. We then show that these experiences are associated with important reductions in years of schooling as well as a broad range of adult socioeconomic outcomes. Our findings also suggest that sisters are far more affected than brothers and that the cause of death is an important factor in sibling effects. Overall, our findings point to important previously unexamined consequences of child mortality, adding to the societal costs associated with childhood mortality as well as suggesting additional benefits from policy and medical innovations aimed at curbing both such deaths and subsequent effects on family members.