A Markov chain for calculating the durability of marriage

"The usual Markov model of marriage permits informative experiments on the effect of alterations in the transition rules. It can tell, for example, what difference it would make to the durability of marriage if there was no divorce and the other transitions were as observed. This is in addition to the capacity of the usual model to find the effect of small changes in the transition rates. Canadian data for 1970-1982 permit comparisons over time, and show among other things not only that married men live longer than single, but that the difference is increasing; the increase in the 'marriage bonus' over time also appears for women." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

A behavioral two‐sex marriage model

In this paper we propose a particular marriage model, i.e., a model for the number of marriages for each age combination as a function of the vectors of the number of single men and women in each age group. The model is based on Dagsvik (2000) where it is demonstrated that a general type of matching behavior imply, under specific assumptions about the distribution of the preferences of the women and men, a convenient expression for the corresponding marriage model.

Data from the Norwegian Population Register for nine years are applied to estimate the model. We subsequently test the hypothesis that, apart from a random “noise”; component, the age‐specific parameters of the model change over time according to a common trend. We find that the hypothesis is not rejected by our data.     

The multistate life table with duration‐dependence

A method for generalizing the multistate, or increment‐decrement, life table to include rates which depend upon duration of exposure to risk, as well as upon age, is proposed. The method is built upon the linear approximation, called the linear integration hypothesis, developed mainly by Rogers and his colleagues. Although the use of rates indexed by duration categories leads to a substantial increase in the state space of the model, it is possible to arrange the rates in such a way that matrices to be inverted are no larger than those encountered in the usual multistate life table. In the more general approach it is possible to derive several new summary indices of the life‐table cohort's history, such as the mean and median time in current status, at any age. The method is illustrated using a simple four‐state marital‐status model which has appeared often in the literature; here, rates of divorce and widowhood vary by duration of marriage as well as age.     

Persistent age distributions for an age‐structured two‐sex population model*

In this paper we formulate an age‐structured two‐sex population model which takes into account a monogamous marriage rule and the duration of marriage. We are mainly concerned with the existence of exponential solutions with a persistent age distribution. First we provide a semigroup method to deal with the time‐evolution problem of our two‐sex population model. Next, by constructing a fixed point mapping, we prove the existence of exponential solutions under homogeneity conditions.     

Turbulent dynamics in a Xviith century population

A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux (1589–1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator, the overall Coale index If. In spite of the noisy appearance of its evolution, the trajectory of If looks ordered, as if it were confined alternatively to two given zones, looping in each of them for a while, then suddenly jumping from the low one to the higher one, or slowly whirling down from the high to the low one.

An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so‐called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions.

The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good, not only for the population size or the Coale index, but also for the marriage series, quite independently of the reconstructioa

A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level.

Thus, not only does the autoregulator model appear validated by empirical data, but its bi‐modal structure is revealed, depicting the dynamic response of a traditional community both to the environment and to the endogeneous demographic process.     

Same-Sex Couples’ Decisions and Experiences of Marriage in the Context of Minority Stress: Interviews From a Population-Based Longitudinal Study

ABSTRACT

In the emerging context of marriage equality, it is important to explore the reasons for and experience of marriage for long-term same-sex couples, including the role of minority stress. In Wave 3 of the population-based, longitudinal CUPPLES Study we interviewed 21 long-term same-sex couples (14 female, 7 male) who resided in 12 different states and who were legally married. Couple members ranged in age from 37 to 84 and reported being together as a couple from 15 to 41 years. Seven couples lived in states that did not recognize their marriage at the time of the interview. Legal protection and social validation emerged as the two primary domains that captured couples’ lived experiences of marriage. Minority stress experiences emerged in the narratives in the context of couples’ long-term commitment, the availability of civil marriage, and couples’ participation in activist efforts on behalf of marriage equality for themselves and others.     

The mathematics of sex and marriage,revisited

We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two‐sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten‐year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use.     

Assessing Attitude Toward Same-Sex Marriage

Abstract

This paper reports the results of three studies conducted to develop, refine, and validate a scale which assessed heterosexual adults' attitudes toward same-sex marriage, the Attitude Toward Same-Sex Marriage Scale (ASSMS). The need for such a scale is evidenced in the increasing importance of same-sex marriage in the political arena of the United States and other nations, as well as the growing body of empirical research examining same-sex marriage and related issues (e.g., Lannutti, 2005; Solomon, Rothblum, & Balsam, 2004). The results demonstrate strong reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity for the ASSMS and suggest that the ASSMS may be adapted to measure attitudes toward civil unions and other forms of relational recognition for same-sex couples. Gender comparisons using the validated scale showed that in college and non-college samples, women had a significantly more positive attitude toward same-sex marriage than did men.     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

Cohort Differences in Women’s Educational Attainment and the Transition to First Marriage in Ghana

This study explores the effects of educational attainment on the transition to first marriage across successive generations of women in Ghana. Considering the significant improvements in women educational attainment and career opportunities in recent decades, the paper questions the tacit assumption of prior research on the time-invariant effect of women’s educational attainment on marriage timing. Using discrete time frailty models with pooled data from the 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, women with higher educational attainment were found to have longer transition to first marriage than their less educated counterparts. More importantly, the effect of higher education on the transition to first marriage was larger among younger women even after controlling for other factors. The stronger effect among contemporary women has been discussed in relation to ideational changes on family formation and the enhanced career opportunities for contemporary educated women.

Macro‐demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: Multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy

We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one‐sex, stable population model to evaluate structural and long‐term effects of changes in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba (1995) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on reproduction and on the age structure of the population.     

Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event history data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by two recent U.S. censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust U.S. age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

Women,Marital Status,and Symptoms of Depression in a Midlife National Sample

ABSTRACT

Previous studies of the correlates of depression among women have not generally been based on adequate midlife samples or precision in the specification of marital status categories. The present analysis is designed to address these deficiencies and is based on data from the Health and Retirement Survey-Wave 1 (i.e., respondents 51 to 61 years old). Results indicate that married women are less likely to report symptoms of depression than their unmarried counterparts. The mental health benefits of marriage are greater for men than for women. Moreover, other variables, such as marital satisfaction, self-rated health, and employment status are more powerful predictors of emotional well-being in midlife than marital status per se. The quality of marriage affects depressive symptoms more strongly for women than men.     

Before and After “I Do”: Marriage Processes for Mid-Life Gay and Lesbian Married Couples

ABSTRACT

This qualitative study examines how mid-life gay and lesbian married individuals articulate their decision to marry. Using 2013 data from 30 mid-life couples in Massachusetts, this study challenges previous literature that conceptualized marriage as entirely positive or negative for same-sex individuals. Mid-life individuals’ unique social and historical context influence their experiences of marriage, as mid-life individuals have witnessed the rise and feasibility of marriage equality, have formed relationships outside of the bounds of marriage, and have been in committed relationships long before they married. Using the framework of ambivalence, our findings provide three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that marital ambivalence is a common experience in our sample. Second, we detail how marital ambivalence is indicative of the age, life-course stage, and length of relationship for mid-life lesbian and gay individuals. Third, we explore ambivalence at the level of the relationship, not just as an individual experience. This study provides new insight into how sexuality shapes both intimate relationship dynamics as well as the effect of same-sex marriage on LGBT communities and identities.     

“Two Men Under One Cloak”—The Sages Permit it: Homosexual Marriage in Judaism

ABSTRACT

This article examines halakhic (Jewish legal) passages that relate to homosexuality and marriage between two males. The article sets forth the respective positions of contemporary Jewish denominations in regard to homosexual marriage. Homosexual marriage is a case of first impression in Judaism and requires new decisions and new marriage contracts. The principal thesis of the article is that contemporary Judaism can accommodate philosophically—but also legally—a halakhic framework of thinking, same-sex marriage between men. Judaism does not have to opt for the perspectives of Reform and Reconstructionist Judaism, which have, to a major extent, freed themselves from the traditions and rituals of Jewish law. After examining marriage contracts in Rabbinic literature, specific examples are presented of how homosexual marriage between two males may be implemented.     

The effect of non-family experiences on age of marriage in a setting of rapid social change

This study examines the changing effects of non-family activities on the age of transition to first marriage in four cohorts of individuals across 45 years in the Chitwan Valley, Nepal. The results indicate that school enrolment had a negative effect on both men's and women's marriage rates, while total years of schooling had a positive effect on men's marriage rates. Non-family employment experiences increased marriage rates for men only. Analysing the effects of schooling and employment over time suggests that school enrolment became a growing deterrent to marriage for both sexes, and that non-family employment became an increasingly desirable attribute in men. The results are consistent with changing views about sex roles and schooling over time in the region, as the roles of student and spouse became more distinct. The results also suggest an increasing integration of husbands in the non-family labour market.     

Same-Sex Marriage and Language Appropriation Practices of Lesbians

ABSTRACT

Legal marriage has vacillated between being a private agreement made by two individuals and an agreement of social significance under the state’s control (Nokov, 2008; Smart, 2013). Presently, we are without a definition of marriage that serves our diverse population. The discourse surrounding same-sex marriage in the United States is a topic of interest, as explicit attention to communication in reference to these relationships has rarely been documented (Land & Kitzinger, 2005; Richman, 2014). Using a qualitative framework and semistructured interviews, this study investigated the relationship between marriage equality and its impact on language appropriation for 20 lesbians in varying parts of the United States. Analysis employing grounded theory and constant comparative method indicated that for this sample, access to legal marriage did not serve as a determinant for the adoption of language traditionally associated with marriage. Additionally, it indicated that marriage equality hinges on more than the support of the law.     

Gender and changing generational relations: Spouse choice in Indonesia

Many Asian societies are undergoing a nuptiality transition that is not only tied integrally to other aspects of family organization, but is also often more complex than standard studies of female age at marriage can reveal. To comprehend some of this complexity, we focus on the patterns of spouse choice for both men and women in central Java. The extent of parental control over mate selection is examined for change over time, gender differences, and likely determinants, including family class, education, premarital work, and residence. It is argued that the current marriage transition in Indonesia reflects both gender and generational hierarchies in the Javanese family system. The analysis is conducted using a multinomial logit model; in general, it yields results strongly supportive of the argument that the determinants of spouse selection differ by gender. The results also show that although there is a dramatic shift towards self-choice marriages, it is occurring within the context of historical and institutional factors specific to Javanese society.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

A model of the age patterns of births by parity in natural fertility populations

This research develops a convolution model to express the age patterns of fertility at each birth order in natural fertility populations in terms of six parameters, directly representing the proximate determinants of fertility, and a series of parity level indicators. The parity level indicators at each birth order are simply the proportions of women in a cohort who will eventually have births at each birth order it the age‐related fecundity decline is controlled. The Coale‐McNeil nuptiality model is adopted to represent the age pattern of first marriage rates and the natural fertility schedule employed in the Coale‐Trussell fertility model is incorporated to adjust age effects. The fast Fourier transform is used in solving the model numerically. It proves that the model is able to provide excellent fits to fertility for rural Chinese women in the 1950s.