在线评论回报的动态声誉机制研究

当前学界研究主要集中于网络评论的声誉机制或虚假评论的识别策略,好评返现可以看作是声誉的交易(消费者给予好评,商家报以返现),而对此类带有一定贿赂性质的、诱导性的评论的声誉机制研究不多。本文以某网络购物平台2016和2017年两次追踪调查数据为样本,实证研究了好评返现是如何作用于最终声誉评价的。实证结果发现,好评返现对店铺声誉累积的实际影响并不是完全正向的,而是以店铺初始声誉等级为阈值,对于信誉等级较高的店铺(品牌商家)不敏感,对于信誉等级较低的店铺(新进卖家)比较敏感;商家是否参与好评返现并非内生于店铺的初始信誉评价,而更多的是提升信誉评分或对冲部分负面评论;消费者是否参与好评返现与其行为意愿和态度不存在显著关联,匿名环境往往使消费者更易做出内心并不认同却能获益的行为。     

Residual income valuation and management remuneration under uncertainty: a note

The so-called Residual Income Valuation theorem states that the value of a project or a firm can be determined either on the basis of cash flows between the firm and its owners or by using residual incomes, provided that cash flows and residual incomes are derived from a set of accounting data that fulfills certain regularity conditions. Residual income is defined as accounting earnings reduced by a capital charge on book equity capital. In this paper it is shown that this theorem also applies when residual incomes and in particular the discount factors are uncertain. Risk-aversion of principals and agents is taken into account on the basis of properly defined risk-adjusted discount rates. This approach is preferred as it facilitates practical application. Implications are drawn with regards to valuation but also to the design of management remuneration systems. It is shown that the capital charge rate used to determine the performance-related compensation component should be reduced below the risk-adjusted rate, if the fixed component falls below a certain threshold. Absent agency cost or other externalities, the reduction of the capital charge rate is required to avoid underinvestment.     

大股东控制、集团内部资本市场运作与公司现金持有

本文以我国上市公司高额现金持有和企业集团迅猛发展为背景,从融资约束与代理冲突两个维度,考察了集团内部资本市场运作对成员企业现金持有量的影响,以及在不同内部治理环境下两者对现金持有量所呈现出的迥异的作用机理。以A股上市公司2007-2010年的数据为样本,本研究发现：（1）集团内部资本市场运作通过融资约束与代理冲突这两条路径影响成员企业的现金持有量。综合来看,集团成员企业的现金持有量高于独立企业。（2）在不同的内部治理环境下,预防性动机与代理动机对现金持有量影响程度的大小也不同。当代理问题较严重时,代理动机导致的现金增持程度大于预防动机减弱导致的现金减持程度,从而表现为与独立企业相比具有较高的现金持有量。（3）代理问题较严重的集团成员企业所拥有的实际现金持有量向目标现金持有量的调整速度较慢,调整半周期较长。上述研究结论丰富了委托代理理论与公司财务理论的相关研究成果,并且从集团内部资本市场运作的视角提供了治理机制如何影响公司财务决策的新证据。     

The Effect of Delayed Incentives on Supply Chain Profits and Consumer Surplus

We examine the use of consumer cash mail‐in rebates offered by a manufacturer in a Stackelberg game where the manufacturer is the leader and the retailer is the follower. Our analysis indicates that rebates are profitable for manufacturers if consumers are inconsistent in the sense that their rebate valuation when they make purchase decisions is independent of their redemption probabilities when they make redemption decisions. If the manufacturer keeps the wholesale price unchanged, then the rebate increases the retailer's profit by a larger amount than the increase in the manufacturer's profit. If the manufacturer jointly optimizes the wholesale price and rebate, then the increase in the manufacturer's profit is twice the increase in the retailer's profit. The retailer responds to rebates by increasing the retail price, which increases the margin paid by consumers who do not redeem the rebate. On average, consumer surplus decreases when it is optimal for manufacturers to offer rebates. We suggest incentive schemes that make it worthwhile for retailers to limit the price increase. In these incentive schemes, the manufacturer imposes a negative relationship between the rebate value and the retail price. We show that such incentives increase supply chain profits.     

现金配售制度下新股申购投资者的真实首日收益研究

以申购资金的真实首日收益(考虑中签率)为研究对象,分析其合理性及影响因素,并以1998～2007年现金配售发行的A股IPO公司为样本进行实证检验.研究发现,新股申购投资者并未获得高额的真实首日超额收益,一级市场过度的噪声申购需求导致收益降低,二级市场噪声需求引起的价格偏离导致收益提高;同时,较高的发行市盈率和较大的公司规模可抑制噪声申购需求而提高收益.     

股利政策、盈余持续性与信号显示

本文基于盈余持续性的概念,实证检验了上市公司的股利类型、股利支付率与企业未来盈利能力的关系,并进一步考察了大股东派发现金股利对盈余持续性的影响.本文的研究发现,总体而言,我国上市公司中派发了现金股利的公司其盈余持续性要强于未派发股利的公司,而且在净利润和营业利润上也表现出更强的增长能力.但在派发现金股利的公司中.股利支付率的大小与盈余持续性强弱并不成简单的线性关系,股利支付率高的公司在盈余的整体及其组成部分上并未表现出更强的盈余持续性.最后,大股东对于现金股利的偏好并未显著影响到盈余的持续性.由此,本文认为,我国上市公司的现金股利政策能够成为以持续性衡量的盈余质量或未来盈利能力的附加信号.     

Risk control in maritime shipping investments

In this paper we extend the state-of-the-art stochastic programming models for the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem (MFRP) to explicitly limit the risk of insolvency due to negative cash flows when making maritime shipping investments. This is achieved by modeling the payment of ships in a number of periodical installments rather than in a lump sum paid upfront, representing more closely the actual cash flows for a shipping company. Based on this, we propose two alternative risk control measures, where the first imposes that the cash flow in each time period is always higher than a desired threshold, while the second limits the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We test the two models on realistic test instances based on data from a shipping company. The computational study demonstrates how the two models can be used to assess the trade-offs between risk of insolvency and expected profits in the MFRP.     

Self-Solicited Feedback: Effects of Hourly Pay and Individual Monetary Incentive Pay

The frequency of feedback solicitation under hourly pay and individual monetary incentive pay conditions was examined. A between-subjects design was used with 30 college students in the two groups. Participants attended three experimental sessions and entered the cash value of simulated bank checks presented on a computer screen. Performance was higher for individuals who were paid incentives; however, participants who were paid incentives did not self-solicit feedback more than those who were paid hourly. Rather, participants in both groups solicited feedback quite frequently. Additionally, performance was not related to feedback solicitation. These results suggest that the incentives did not make feedback more reinforcing even though the incentives were functional rewards and the feedback was correlated with the amount of pay earned: the better the feedback, the more pay participants earned. The results also support the position that it may be necessary to pair objective feedback with an evaluative component to enhance performance.     

民营上市公司实际控制人与现金股利研究

实际控制人对上市公司的现金股利分配具有重要影响。本文以2004-2006年沪深证券交易所的民营上市公司为样本,对实际控制人与现金股利之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果证实,实际控制人通过IPO的方式获得上市公司的控制权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权发生分离和采用金字塔控制方式同现金股利显著负相关。而且,与通过非IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人相比,通过IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人其控制权与现金流权对现金股利的影响更加显著,控制权与现金流权发生分离和控制方式为金字塔时发放的现金股利更多。     

基于需求转移存在的衰退期产品赊销决策优化模型研究

在考虑企业赊销过程中赊销对现销的冲击与现销对赊销的需求转移的情况下,结合衰退期产品现销与赊销的特征,运用产品生命周期和动态规划理论,以现销、赊销总收益最大为目标建立衰退期产品赊销决策优化模型,求解出赊销的最优推出时间,并进一步得到赊销的最优推出时间与企业制定的赊销信用政策的关系,从而确定最佳的赊销信用政策,为企业制定合理、经济的赊销信用政策提供了依据。     

核心企业回购担保下的保兑仓融资决策

作为一种供应链融资模式,保兑仓是解决中小企业融资难问题的重要方案,其借助核心企业的信用,提升了中小企业的信用状况,使得中小企业更容易获得银行的资金支持。然而,随着市场状况的恶化,很多中小企业倒闭,核心企业承担大额银行贷款的连带赔偿责任。本文研究由单一的零售商（中小企业）和制造商（核心企业）组成的供应链中,考虑零售商的破产概率,由银行控制货权,供应商对剩余产品进行一定比例的回购,零售商以银行提供的承兑汇票作为结算工具进行融资的情况下,分析了零售商的最优订货量、供应商的最优回购率和银行的最优贷款利率的决策。并通过算例得出回购率的提高能鼓励零售商订货,提高供应链的利润。但是,回购率对银行利润的变动很大程度上受零售商破产概率影响。较高的回购率刺激信用良好的零售商提高订货量会增加银行的利润,对信用较差的零售商来说,订货量的提高会使银行遭受损失的可能性提高,期望利润反而降低。所以,银行在提供保兑仓融资时,不仅要关注中小企业和核心企业的信贷偿还能力,还要加强贷款资金的监管,关注保兑仓融资的风险。     

The effect of outside directors’ and auditors’ incentives on managers’ ability to manage cash bonuses

This paper investigates the impact of outside directors’ and auditors’ monetary incentives on the association between discretionary accounting and managers’ cash bonuses in a two-tier system. For a sample of German stock corporations from 2005 to 2007 we expect and find that outside directors who receive compensation based on accounting income and auditors who receive high non-audit fees have the incentive to tolerate managers’ bonus-increasing accounting choices. More specifically, we show that positive discretionary accruals are more strongly associated with managers’ cash bonuses than negative discretionary accruals if outside directors receive accounting-based compensation and/or if auditors receive high non-audit fees. Our results suggest that executives’ ability to manage their cash bonuses depends on the monitoring institutions’ monetary incentives.     

基于还款能力和还款意愿的贷款定价模型研究

企业的违约取决于还款能力和还款意愿综合作用的结果。传统的信用风险评估方法将还款能力与还款意愿当成两个独立的对象来处理,分别对二者进行评估后再做出风险决策,这种做法忽视了二者之间的内在联系,从而影响了信用风险决策的科学性与合理性。文章通过比较企业还款的成本与企业违约的机会成本大小来量化还款意愿,建立了一个n期的模型量化了借款人的动态的还款意愿。在此基础上,研究了企业还款意愿、还款能力对信用风险定价的交互影响,进一步建立了综合考虑还款能力和还款意愿两类因素条件下的贷款定价模型。     

International business taxation and the business cash flow tax

Investments and business profits are internationally mobile. Countries respond by tackling international profit shifting. As a result, the international allocation of taxable profits becomes an increasingly complex and costly issue. Reform proposals either address the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development approach to international profit allocation or target tax bases that are less mobile than profits. This paper investigates cash flow as a tax base. A business cash flow tax abolishes current accrual accounting and has the potential to block international profit shifting. Financing vanishes to become a tax-planning tool because the investments’ market return is tax free under a cash flow tax. Profit shifting via intra-group transactions is eliminated if the business cash flow tax is based on the country of destination principle. However, a destination-based business cash flow tax might distort the investment decisions of international groups.     

POLICIES AND IMPACT: AN ANALYSIS OF VILLAGE‐LEVEL MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS

This paper uses variation in policies and institutional characteristics to evaluate the impacts of village‐level microfinance institutions in rural Thailand. To identify impacts, we use policies related to the successful/unsuccessful provision of services as exogenous variation in effective financial intermediation. We find that institutions, particularly those with good policies, can promote asset growth, consumption smoothing and occupational mobility, and can decrease moneylender reliance. Specifically, cash‐lending institutions—production credit groups and especially women's groups—are successful in providing intermediation and its benefits to members, while buffalo banks and rice banks are not. The policies identified as important to intermediation and benefits: the provision of savings services, especially pledged savings accounts; emergency services; and training and advice. Surprisingly, much publicized policies such as joint liability, default consequences, or repayment frequency had no measured impacts. (JEL: 012, 016)     

终极控股股东超额控制与现金持有量价值的实证研究

文章以我国资本市场2002年非金融类A股公司为样本,实证研究了终极控股股东控制权与现金流权分离对公司现金持有量水平及其市场价值的影响.研究结果发现:(1)当终极控股股东为国有股东时,控制权/现金流权系数与现金持有量水平显著正相关;而当终极控股股东为非国有股东时,控制权/现金流权系数与现金持有量水平虽然正相关,但不能通过显著性检验.表明在两权分离的情况下,国有终极控股股东对高现金持有量水平具有较高的偏好;(2)当终极控股股东为国有股东,且其控制权与现金流权存在分离时,现金持有量的价值为0.769元;而当终极控股股东控制权与现金流权不存在分离或虽存在分离但终极控股股东为非国有股东时,现金持有量的价值为1.206元.从而表明在两权分离的情况下,国有终极控股股东对高现金持有量水平的偏好是一种控股股东利益侵占动机.     

Conservative accounting as a signaling device in debt covenants

This paper provides a signaling explanation for benefits of conservative accounting in a debt contracting setting. It develops a model in which firms want to finance more or less risky projects through debt, which is private information. Creditors price the risk on average riskiness, which implies a relatively high interest rate for low-risk firms. These firms can signal their low-risk type by implementing a conservative accounting system. The accounting signal is used in a debt covenant that stipulates early repayment in case of a bad signal. Thus, the low-risk firms benefit from a lower interest cost, but at the cost of higher risk of being forced to liquidate a profitable project. The analysis establishes conditions for separating and pooling equilibria and determines their individual and social welfare implications. It shows that conservative accounting by low-risk firms can even increase social welfare if it mitigates underinvestment.     

基于资本监管要求和还款意愿的贷款定价研究

在借款人有道德风险的情况下,如何合理地确定贷款价格是一个理论界及实务界面临的共同难题。本文分析了企业的还款意愿对商业银行贷款定价的影响,并将还款意愿融入到信用风险定价的结构化模型中,建立了资本监管下商业银行贷款定价模型。研究表明,贷款占用银行的监管资本越多或银行吸收存款的利率越高,贷款价格也越高;企业的还款意愿越弱,则银行给企业的贷款价格越高;反之,企业的还款意愿越强,则银行给企业的贷款价格越低。     

Correction Constants for Present Values of Seasonal Cash Flows

In a recent Decision Sciences article, McMath (1990) developed the correction constants approach for eliminating the end-of-year bias in the present value of streams with subannual cash flows. A limitation of this approach is that it assumes subannual cash flows are level. In many types of businesses, subannual cash flows follow a predictable seasonal pattern and, consequently, a present value estimate based upon a level correction constant is biased. This article derives a general formula for determining correction constants for seasonal cash flow patterns, examines the direction and magnitude of the seasonal bias, and applies seasonal correction constants to a capital budgeting problem.     

A Framework to Analyze Cash Supply Chains

The Federal Reserve System of the United States is making changes to its cash recirculation policy to reduce depository institutions' (banks') overuse of its cash processing services. These changes will affect operating policies and costs at many institutions having large cash businesses and, in turn, impact cash transportation and logistics providers. This study provides the framework to study the cash supply chain structure and analyzes it as a closed‐loop supply chain. Additionally, it describes the cash flow management system used by banks in the U.S.