International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Evidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual-level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate-sized cities.     

Motherhood status and union formation in Moshi,Tanzania 2002–2003

Age at first union is increasing throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa at the same time that not all couples are waiting for marriage before their first sexual intercourse. We assessed the effect of a premarital first birth on entrance into a first union in an urban area in East Africa—Moshi, Tanzania. The data come from the Moshi Infertility Survey of 2002–2003. Women who spent less than a year in single motherhood were significantly more likely than childless women to enter into a first union, although the magnitude of this relationship was weaker for more recent cohorts. Women who had been single mothers for 5 or more years (about two-thirds of women with a premarital birth) were significantly less likely than women without children to enter into a first union.     

Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855–1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from The Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation.     

Poverty and Headship in Post-apartheid South Africa, 1997–2006

In this paper, I investigate the characteristics and poverty status of female- and male-headed households in South Africa using nationally representative household survey data from the October Household Surveys (1997 and 1999) and the General Household Surveys (2004 and 2006). This decade (1997–2006) represents a period for which there is an extensive poverty literature documenting (particularly in the 2000 s) an overall decrease in the poverty headcount rate. At the same time, however, there is evidence to suggest that female-headed households have a far higher risk of poverty and that the poverty differential between female- and male-headed households widened over the period. The aim of this paper is to identify some of the main reasons that female-headed households are more vulnerable to poverty in post-apartheid South Africa and why poverty has decreased by more in male-headed households (relative to female-headed households). The study examines the key features which distinguish female- and male-headed households and whether these have changed over time. In order to link these characteristics with the poverty differential between female- and male-headed households, I then examine whether (and by how much) controlling for the observable differences between female- and male-headed households reduces the significantly greater risk of poverty in female-headed households.     

Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010

Population Research and Policy Review - This paper looks at the association between the Colombian Armed Internal Conflict (AIC) and fertility for women in the first decade of the 21st century when...     

Socio-economic differentials in childhood immunization in India, 1992–2006

This paper examines the socio-economic differentials in coverage of basic childhood immunization in India and the states of Bihar and Gujarat using three rounds of National Family Health Survey data. States are selected on the basis of changes in full immunization coverage during 1992–2006. Bivariate, multivariate, and progression rate is used to understand the differentials and changes in immunization coverage. Results indicate that there has been a substantial increase in partial immunization in most of the states, but the increase in full immunization coverage is relatively slow in many of the states. Along with mother’s education, standard of living, mass media exposure, and availability of health card is a significant predictor in explaining the full immunization coverage irrespective of time.     

Which factors explain the decline in infant and child mortality in Matlab,Bangladesh?

Infant and child mortality rates have decreased substantially in Matlab, Bangladesh, as they have in many developing areas. We use data from the Matlab Demographic Surveillance System on nearly 94,000 singleton live births that occurred between 1987 and 2002 to investigate the extent to which the change in mortality over this period can be explained by changes in reproductive patterns and socio-economic characteristics. We estimate Cox proportional hazards models for four subperiods of infancy and childhood. Changes over time in reproductive patterns (maternal age, parity, and pregnancy spacing) and in the socio-economic characteristics we consider (e.g. maternal education, SES) explain between 10 and 40% of the decline in mortality rates. Changes in maternal education explain the largest portion of the reduction in infant and child mortality over time that we are able to explain, followed by reductions in the incidence of short interpregnancy intervals. In the other direction, decreases in fertility over time led to increases in the proportion of births that were first births, putting upward pressure on mortality.

Infant mortality,birth order,and sibship size: The role of heterogeneous risk and the previous‐death effect

This paper derives an analytic model to study biases in infant mortality estimates by birth order and sibship size, which occur when the death of an infant tends to shorten the next birth interval and mortality risk varies among families. We find that order‐specific and sibship‐size‐specific estimates are biased by a selection for high‐risk women across birth orders, since women with higher risk will tend to have shorter intervals, and more births, within a given period of time. Sibship‐size‐specific estimates are, in addition, biased by a selection of women who have experienced deaths, even if there is no heterogeneity in risk. Numerical examples based on data from Matlab, Bangladesh, are used to illustrate the possible magnitude of these biases. The results resemble patterns of infant mortality by birth order and sibship size which are often observed empirically.     

Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871–1937

Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate and economic data from 1871 to 1937, we examine the effects of climate variability on marriage. This analysis reveals that marriage increases with negative environmental conditions such as cold temperatures, riverine flooding, and high rye prices. These findings are not consistent with a Malthusian narrative of marriage behavior or with the expectation that environmental constraints were stronger in the historical past.     

Age at marriage and marital instability: revisiting the Becker–Landes–Michael hypothesis

An early age at first marriage is known to be associated with a high risk of divorce. Yet, it has been suggested that beyond a certain point, the relationship between age at marriage and marital instability may become positive because as unmarried women begin to hear their biological clock tick, they may settle for matches far from the optimal. Analyses based on cycles 5 and 6 of the National Surveys of Family Growth show that the relationship between age at marriage and marital instability is strongly negative up to the late 20s, with a flattening of the curve thereafter.

Hispanic Concentrated Poverty in Traditional and New Destinations, 2010–2014

This paper examines patterns of Hispanic concentrated poverty in traditional, new, and minor destinations. Using data from 2010 to 2014 from the American Community Survey, we find that without controlling for group characteristics, Hispanics experience a lower level of concentrated poverty in new destinations compared to traditional gateways. Metropolitan level factors explain this difference, including ethnic residential segregation, the Hispanic poverty rate, and the percentage of Hispanics who are foreign born. Overall, this study sheds new light on the Hispanic geographic dispersal in the United States and offers support for the argument that the Hispanic settlement into new destinations is associated with lower levels of concentrated poverty.     

The Growth,Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010

The steep rise in U.S. criminal punishment in recent decades has spurred scholarship on the collateral consequences of imprisonment for individuals, families, and communities. Several excellent studies have estimated the number of people who have been incarcerated and the collateral consequences they face, but far less is known about the size and scope of the total U.S. population with felony convictions beyond prison walls, including those who serve their sentences on probation or in jail. This article develops state-level estimates based on demographic life tables and extends previous national estimates of the number of people with felony convictions to 2010. We estimate that 3 % of the total U.S. adult population and 15 % of the African American adult male population has ever been to prison; people with felony convictions account for 8 % of all adults and 33 % of the African American adult male population. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of the spatial concentration and immense growth of these groups since 1980.     

Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008–2011

Recession may increase divorce through a stress mechanism, or reduce divorce by exacerbating cost barriers or strengthening family bonds. After establishing an individual-level model predicting US women’s divorce, the paper tests period effects, and whether unemployment and foreclosures are associated with the odds of divorce using the 2008–2011 American Community Survey. Results show a downward spike in the divorce rate after 2008, almost recovering to the expected level by 2011, which suggests a negative recession effect. On the other hand, state foreclosure rates are positively associated with the odds of divorce with individual controls, although this effect is not significant when state fixed effects are introduced. State unemployment rates show no effect on odds of divorce. Future research will have to determine why national divorce odds fell during the recession, while state-level economic indicators were not strongly associated with divorce. Exploratory analysis which shows unemployment decreasing divorce odds for those with college degrees, while foreclosures have the opposite effect, provide one possible avenue for such research.     

Growing Parental Economic Power in Parent–Adult Child Households: Coresidence and Financial Dependency in the United States, 1960–2010

Research on coresidence between parents and their adult children in the United States has challenged the myth that elders are the primary beneficiaries, instead showing that intergenerationally extended households generally benefit the younger generation more than their parents. Nevertheless, the economic fortunes of those at the older and younger ends of the adult life course have shifted in the second half of the twentieth century, with increasing financial well-being among older adults and greater financial strain among younger adults. This article uses U.S. census and American Community Survey (ACS) data to examine the extent to which changes in generational financial well-being over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries have been reflected in the likelihood of coresidence and financial dependency in parent–adult child U.S. households between 1960 and 2010. We find that younger adults have become more financially dependent on their parents and that while older adults have become more financially independent of their adult children, they nevertheless coreside with their needy adult children. We also find that the effect of economic considerations in decisions about coresidence became increasingly salient for younger adults, but decreasingly so for older adults.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Midwives’ role in the provision of maternal and childhood immunisation information

ProblemInactivated influenza vaccine and diphtheria-tetanus acellular pertussis vaccine are routinely recommended during pregnancy to protect women and their babies from infection. Additionally, the hepatitis B vaccine is recommended for infants within the first week of life; however, little is known about midwives’ experiences of recommending and delivering these immunisations.BackgroundMidwives are a trusted source of vaccine information for parents and the confident provision of information about immunisation during antenatal clinic visits has been found to increase the uptake of antenatal and childhood vaccines.AimThis study aims to explore midwives’ experiences of discussing maternal and childhood immunisation with women and their partners and their confidence in answering parent’s questions.MethodsWe conducted 23 semi-structured interviews with registered Australian midwives working in public and private hospital settings, and in private practice.FindingsMidwives find negotiating the requirement to recommend immunisation within a women-centred framework challenging at times. The vast majority of midwives described their education on immunisation as inadequate and workplace issues, such as time pressure, were identified as further barriers to effective communication about immunisation.Discussion/conclusionThe provision of immunisation training within midwifery education and continued professional development is critical. Appropriately resourcing midwives with the necessary infrastructure, education and resources to fully inform parents about immunisation may have a positive impact on vaccine uptake.     

The increase in marital status differences in mortality up to the oldest age in seven European countries, 1990–99

We investigate mortality differentials by marital status among older age groups using a database of mortality rates by marital status at ages 40 and over for seven European countries with 1 billion person-years of exposure. The mortality advantage of married people, both men and women, continues to increase up to at least the age group 85–89, the oldest group we are able to consider. We find the largest absolute differences in mortality levels between marital status groups are at high ages, and that absolute differentials are: (i) greater for men than for women; (ii) similar in magnitude across countries; (iii) increase steadily with age; and (iv) are greatest at older age. We also find that the advantage enjoyed by married people increased over the 1990s in almost all cases. We note that results for groups such as older divorced women need to be interpreted with caution.