Son preference, sex selection, and kinship in Vietnam

This article examines the recent rise in the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam and relates its emergence to kinship systems and ethnic composition using 2009 census micro-data. Presentation of the main socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in birth masculinity is followed by a review of the three intermediate factors leading to increases in the sex ratio at birth: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender bias. An indirect measurement of fertility behavior is used to demonstrate the close association between levels of the sex ratio at birth and the intensity of son preference. Data on household composition indicate that Vietnam is characterized by the co-existence of kinship patterns typical of East and Southeast Asia. Son preference in Vietnam is found to be related to the prevalence of more traditional patrilineal systems. The article concludes by considering the implications of the cultural dimensions of prenatal sex selection for policy responses and for the likely future change in the sex ratio at birth.     

生育水平、性别偏好和出生性别比——兼论出生性别比的监测方法

本研究以马-冯-陈模型为定性基础,认为一定人口的出生性别比并非固定不变,而是受到生育水平的影响。当无性别偏好时,生育水平主要通过改变不同孩次占出生人口比例的方式影响出生性别比;当有性别偏好时,生育水平既影响不同孩次占总出生人口的比例,又影响不同孩次的出生性别比,从而对总出生性别比产生影响。对于没有性别偏好和性别选择行为的人口,生育水平变化是引起出生性别比波动的主要原因。有性别选择行为时,生育水平变化对出生性别比的影响较小,性别选择行为是出生性别比异常的主要原因。监测以"曾生子女孩次和性别次序"为条件划分的人群,可以有效而便捷地判断出生性别比变化趋势。     

Mapping the diversity of gender preferences and sex imbalances in Indonesia in 2010

Indonesia is usually viewed as a country free of the acute forms of gender discrimination observed elsewhere in East or South Asia, a situation often ascribed to Indonesia's bilateral kinship system. I re-examine this hypothesis by focusing on ethnic and regional variations in sex differentials. New indicators of marriage practices and gender bias derived from 2010 census microdata highlight the presence of patrilocal patterns as well as a distinct presence of son preference in fertility behaviour in many parts of the archipelago. I also present evidence for excessive child sex ratios and excess mortality of females in some areas that appear to be related to son preference and patrilocal residence systems. The findings confirm the association between son preference, sex differentials in mortality, prenatal sex selection, and kinship systems. I conclude with a more regional perspective on demographic vulnerability of females, distinguishing bilateral South East Asia from more patrilineal Melanesia.     

女性地位低的层级推演--对出生性别比偏高背后隐象的探析

目前学术界对出生性别比偏高原因的争论主要集中在出生婴儿性别次序先后与下一孩次性别关系以及计划生育政策和女婴存在漏报、瞒报的影响等三个方面,本文在对三大传统观点提出质疑的基础上,先从生物学、计划生育政策、医学技术三个方面,而后从性别偏好,最后从女性地位低这三级递进的层次,推演和探析出生性别比偏高的原因,从而明晰出生性别比偏高的终极原因在于女性地位低这一事实。并努力从女性地位、男性偏好以及出生性别比三者关系上构造出一个新的分析框架。     

Age-parity-specific birth rates and birth probabilities from census or survey data on own children

The ‘own-children’ method is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating age-specific birth rates for years previous to enumeration. In this paper it is extended to estimate birth rates and birth probabilities by parity as well as by age. The refined method is tested for accuracy by comparing ‘own-children’ estimates of age-parity-specific birth probabilities for the United States in 1969 with parallel estimates obtained by the method used in Vital Statistics of the United States. The ‘own-children’ estimates give relatively lower values at ages 15-19 and higher values at ages above 40, but compare well in between. The discrepancies are probably due mainly to adoption of illegitimate children of young mothers by older women. The ‘own-children’ estimate of the total fertility rate is very close to the published vital statistics estimate.     

婚姻挤压下农村流动人口的生育性别偏好——基于相对剥夺感视角的分析

中国的出生性别比偏高持续了三十年,婚姻挤压问题日益凸现,大规模的城乡人口流动则加剧了婚姻挤压问题及其社会影响的严重性与复杂性。受制度与非制度因素影响,农村流动人口在城市处于社会底层,易遭遇成婚困难、诱发相对剥夺感,可能对生育偏好产生重要影响。本文基于相对剥夺感视角,对2009年福建省X市外来农村流动人口调查数据的分析发现,婚姻挤压对农村流动人口的生育性别偏好的观念与行为均无显著影响,但相对剥夺感对生育性别偏好行为有显著影响。本研究有助于理解婚姻挤压与相对剥夺感对农村流动人口生育性别偏好演化的特殊作用,对国家调整生育政策、提高流动人口计生服务与管理、促进性别平等有一定借鉴意义。     

基于空间数据的出生性别比偏高影响因素研究

以出生性别比升高机理为基础,应用空间计量技术分析2000年份地市横截面数据和地理空间数据,实证研究各因素对出生性别比偏高的影响。结果表明:社会经济文化因素通过影响生育决策和生育行为进而引起出生性别比偏高,影响出生性别比升高的各因素存在空间相互作用,其空间自相关属于高高-低低类型;传统文化、公共政策、城镇化水平以及良好的社会法制环境将抑制出生性别比升高;经济发展水平、家庭收入、受教育程度和医疗发展水平将促使出生性别比升高;生育政策对出生性别比升高的影响不具有统计显著性。     

出生人口性别比周期性波动研究——兼论中国出生人口性别比的变化趋势

在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。     

Sampling variability of own-children fertility estimates

This paper develops methodology for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals for own-children estimates of age-specific birth rates and total fertility rates. The methodology applies to systematic samples of households, which are treated as simple random samples of women. The assumption of simple random selection, together with the treatment of sample subgroup size and reverse-survival ratios as constants instead of random variables, imply that sampling variability is slightly underestimated. The methodology is applied illustratively to fertility estimates based on the 1970 census of the Philippines.     

子女孩次性别结构与女性再生育——基于孩次性别递进生育率的分析

现有子女的孩次性别结构是影响女性再生育的重要因素。使用中国2000年人口普查数据和时期孩次性别递进生育指标对女性生育水平进行了测算。结果显示,女性普遍生育但终身只生育一个孩子的比例很大,基于孩次性别结构的生育行为体现了男孩偏好;城市和镇在生育第一孩时就存在性别选择;第一个孩子是女孩的女性生育二孩的可能性较大,且二孩是男孩的比例显著大于是女孩的比例;第一个孩子是男孩的城市和镇的女性大部分不再生育,而农村女性有很大比例会生育二孩,但几乎不存在性别选择。采用某地区2019年的数据进行补充验证,同样发现:只有一个女孩的女性相比较只有一个男孩的女性生育者生第二孩的可能性要高很多,以上研究发现对当前二孩生育行为具有一定的启示意义。     

性别偏好与性别选择性生育技术利用意愿——中国与德国、英国和美国的比较

国内以往对人们性别偏好的研究多集中于对"男孩偏好"的研究,而对性别偏好的其他类型关注很少,特别是对人们性别偏好的强度几乎没有涉及。运用国内298名大学生的问卷调查资料,结合美国、英国和德国的相关实证研究,对性别偏好的类型和强度进行中外比较研究后发现,与西方育龄妇女生育意愿相比,中国大学生总体上性别均衡偏好的比例更大,而无偏好的比例较小;中国大学生希望使用性别选择技术以达到生育理想性别孩子的比例相对更高。     

Sex Differentials in Childhood Feeding,Health Care,and Nutritional Status in India

Strong preference for sons in South Asia is well documented, but evidence on female disadvantage in childhood feeding, health care, and nutritional status is inconclusive. This article examines sex differentials in indicators of childhood feeding, health care, and nutritional status of children under age 3 by birth order and sex composition of older living siblings. Data are from India's 1992–93 and 1998–99 National Family Health Surveys. The analysis finds three reasons for inconclusive evidence on female disadvantage in aggregate analyses. First, discrimination against girls is limited to the relatively small fraction of children of certain birth orders and sex compositions of older siblings. Second, discrimination against girls when boys are in short supply and discrimination against boys when girls are in short supply cancel each other to some extent. Third, some discrimination against girls (e.g., in exclusive breastfeeding at 6–9 months) is nutritionally beneficial to girls. Separate analyses for North and South India find that gender discrimination is as common in the South as in the North, where son preference is generally much stronger.     

Mortality in Vietnam, 1979–1989

Little is known about past and present mortality in Vietnam, as the first official data on mortality have only recently become available from censuses taken in 1979 and 1989. Using these data, I estimate Vietnamese mortality during the intercensal period using two techniques that rely on age-specific growth rates from two successive age distributions. Intercensal emigration and differential completeness of census enumeration associated with massive outflows of refugees in the wake of the Vietnam War; population-redistribution policies, and a highly mobile population represent important sources of bias for the estimation of intercensal mortality. I incorporate several strategies to minimize bias from these sources and to select the method that is least sensitive to errors associated with them. Life expectancy at birth estimated for the 1979–1989 intercensal period is 61.4 years for males and 63.2 for females. These results suggest a trend of declining mortality between the 1970s and the 1980s and add solid empirical evidence to the debate over whether mortality in Vietnam has been deteriorating or improving.     

韩国出生性别比失衡的公共治理及对中国的启示

韩国出生性别比呈现先上升后下降的态势,韩国出生性别比偏高的直接原因是性别选择流、引产,而传统文化是根源性的原因,韩国性别失衡带来一系列社会后果,影响了韩国的社会稳定;韩国政府出台了一系列旨在维护女童权益、反对歧视女性、提高女性地位的法律法规;韩国的公民社会也作出了许多有益的尝试,通过公共治理,出生性别比出现显著下降,而且女性地位得到较大提升;韩国性别比失衡问题的治理对中国解决相关人口问题有着重要的借鉴意义。     

中国出生性别比升高的孩次性别递进过程分析

应用孩次性别递进分析方法,使用1990年和2000年全国人口普查原始抽样数据和2005年1%人口抽样调查原始抽样数据,对我国出生性别比变化情况进行分析,并就1990年以来出生性别比升高的内在机制进行深入探讨。研究发现,从20世纪80年代初开始已经显示了生育性别干预的特征,2000年以来纯女户生育性别比升高到190以上,纯男户生育性别比下降到90以下。2005年纯女户的偏男倾向依然非常明显,生育第一孩的性别比也表现出明显的人为干预现象。正是由于对生育第一孩的性别比的直接干预,才促使了出生性别比持续升高和高孩次生育性别比及高孩次生育率的下降。     

地域文化、宗族组织与农民生育观念的表达——赣南布村生育观念的文化社会学考察

基于赣南布村生育观念与行为的实地调查,笔者发现地域文化与宗族组织等因素对当地的生育观念影响明显。祖先崇拜的存在意味着子孙后代的繁衍与昌盛是后人对祖先最大的敬畏与敬仰,宗族性组织的存在与维持则让宗族之间的生育竞争一直存在。生育行为与地域文化、宗族组织等的存在是不可分离的,前者为后两者提供了实践的载体和价值的依据,而后两者则为前者提供了行为的合法性和动力。     

Gender preference and birth spacing in matlab,Bangladesh

Gender preference, particularly son preference, is believed to sustain high fertility in many Asian countries, but previous research shows unclear effects. We examine and compare gender-preference effects on fertility in two otherwise comparable populations in Bangladesh that differ markedly in their access to and use of contraception. We expect, and find, stronger effects of gender preference in the population that has more access to contraception and higher levels of contraceptive use. Thus gender preference may emerge as a significant barrier to further national family planning efforts in Bangladesh. We find that if a woman has at least one daughter, the risk of a subsequent birth is related negatively to the number of sons. Women with no daughters also experience a higher risk of having a subsequent birth; this finding suggests that there is also some preference for daughters. Son preference is strong in both the early and later stages of family formation, but women also want to have at least one daughter after having several sons.     

An Increase in the Sex Ratio of Births to India‐born Mothers in England and Wales: Evidence for Sex‐Selective Abortion

Male preference in many Asian cultures results in discriminatory practices against females, including neglect and infanticide. This preference, together with the availability of prenatal sex determination and sex‐selective abortion, has led to an increase in sex ratios at birth in China, India, and South Korea. The resulting expected gender imbalances raise ethical, demographic, and social concerns. We analyzed birth statistics to see whether similar trends are apparent among births to foreign‐born mothers in England and Wales. Before 1990, sex ratios at birth were consistently nearly one point lower (104) for the three major Asian groups in Britain compared with mothers born in Western countries. This is inconsistent with previous suggestions that Asian populations have a higher “natural” sex ratio at birth. In the birth statistics since 1990, we find a four‐point increase in the sex ratio at birth for mothers born in India, attributable particularly to an increase at higher birth orders, mirroring findings reported for India. This suggests that sex‐selective abortion is occurring among mothers born in India and living in Britain. By contrast, no significant increase was observed for Pakistan‐born and Bangladesh‐born mothers, among whom male preference also exists. It seems that male preference in different cultures does not necessarily lead to sex‐selective abortion.     

Indirect evidence of the contribution of prenatal sex selection practices to the high sex ratio at birth in Vietnam

This paper reports indirect evidence that prenatal sex selection is a contributor to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. The paper uses birth data from the Population Change Survey 2006 to assess the associations between sex ratio at birth and variables that predict increased opportunities to practise prenatal sex selection, including maternal knowledge of foetal sex before birth, the use of ultrasound for foetal sex determination, the gestation week when foetal sex was disclosed, and access to abortion services. The high sex ratio of most recent births was significantly associated with the use of ultrasound to determine the foetal sex in gestation weeks 12–22 and with access to family planning services that provide abortion. Prenatal sex selection in health facilities are likely to contribute to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam.     

生育性别偏好行为的双向选择——来自陕西省神木县的调查发现

本研究根据神木县经济、社会发展以及政策调整,结合群众的生育观念调查和访谈,以出生人口性别比变动趋势分析生育性别偏好的发展和变化。研究发现,在经济、社会发展以及政策调整进程中,存在生育性别偏好的双向选择：一方面,男孩功能随着经济与社会发展出现减弱,促进了不再追求生育儿子的生育性别偏好正向选择;另一方面,在男孩偏好文化顽固的地区,经济社会发展与政策调整刺激了男孩偏好,加剧了偏好儿子的生育性别偏好逆向选择。研究有利于明确经济、社会以及政策对于生育性别偏好的影响,从而为进一步制定有效的性别失衡治理政策提供依据。