快速人口转变后的中国长期经济增长—从预期寿命、人力资本投资角度考察

在过去三十年里,中国历经了发达国家要用一百多年才能完成的人口转变过程。生育率、死亡率快速下降,接踵而至的是日益严重的少子、老龄化过程。基于以上背景,本文扩展了Diamond（1965）的基本叠代模型,以不确定性寿命为切入点,在个人的微观行为基础上,致力于分析以下问题：中国是否需要调整当前的计划生育政策;随着人口红利的逐渐消失,中国长期的经济增长如何持续。本文的分析结果显示,预期寿命与生育率、人力资本投资、储蓄率以及经济增长的关系是非单调性的。     

Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS

This paper provides evidence on how adverse health conditions affect the transfer of human capital from one generation to the next. We explore the differential exposure to HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa as a substantial health shock to both household and community environment. We utilize the recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys for 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. First, we find that an additional year of maternal education leads to a 0.37-year increase in children’s years of schooling in the developing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. Second, our results show that mother’s HIV status has substantial detrimental effects on inheritability of human capital. We find that the association between infected mothers’ and their children’s human capital is 30 % less than the general population. Finally, focusing only on noninfected mothers and their children, we show that HIV prevalence in the community also impairs the intergenerational human capital transfers even if mother is HIV negative. The findings of this paper are particularly distressing for these already poor, HIV-torn countries as in the future they will have even lower overall level of human capital due to the epidemic.     

A model on the escape from the Malthusian trap

We consider a demoeconomic model where output is produced using physical capital, human capital and technology as inputs. Human capital depends on the number of people and the level of education in the economy. The dynamics of labour, physical capital, education and technology are endogenously determined such as to reflect the interdependence between economic and demographic factors. The longrun path of the economy and in particular the possibility to escape the Malthusian trap crucially depend on technological progress, which provides for economy wide increasing returns to scale. The build up of technology is positively related to the stock of human capital. Our model predicts that positive population growth is sufficient to escape the Malthusian trap. Received: 22 August 1996 / Accepted: 11 December 1997     

Human capital,technological progress and the demographic transition*

We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality ‐ separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium ‐ as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively ‐ we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth.     

人力资本、人口变动与经济增长

本文在Lucas模型基础上,构建了一个人力资本、人口变动和经济增长模型,并分别利用1997～2004年全国30个省区市以及东部12个省、中部9个省、西部9个省的面板数据,使用固定效应模型对理论模型的预期结果进行了实证检验,发现人力资本、贸易开放度对经济增长具有显著正效应,而人口增长率、FD I与经济增长的关系则具有不确定性。这些结果可在一定程度上解释我国区域经济发展中存在的差距。特别值得指出的是,回归结果并不支持在东部发达地区率先尝试放松生育控制政策的观点。     

Age structure,education, and the transmission of technical change

The significance of deviations from exponential population growth to economic development requires the construction of growth models that explicitly recognize demographic forces as a potential source of nonstationarities. This paper uses an overlapping generations approach to analyze the impact of population aging on technological innovations in the production process. Specifically, it is assumed that a newly invented technology can be used only if the production unit engages human labor that has been trained for this task (labor-embodied technical change). In a model of overlapping generations 1-sector optimal growth, there are 3 basic components: population, education and labor, and production and investment. An individual who has been in school continuously from the time of birth embodies, according to this model, the most up-to-date form of human capital. When the population growth rate is high, technological innovations are achieved largely through the constant influx of recently educated young people into the labor force. However, when population declines lead to a slowing down of this influx, increased adult education is necessary to stimulate the continued introduction of innovations into the productive process. The form of the optimality conditions, the comparative statistics properties, and the form of the nonstationary optimal economic growth path in this model are similar to those in the Van Imhoff model of homogeneous human capital.     

人力资本积累下的技术进步对能源消耗型产业经济增长的影响

可持续的经济增长受到技术、资本、能源、环境等诸多要素投入的影响。本文构建并刻画了基于能源与环境约束的能源消耗型产业在考虑人力资本积累(涉及到原始能源的二次开发利用和产业污染物的治理)的技术进步影响下,实现其产业的稳态经济增长路径,并尝试分析了技术进步形成的污染治理和能源回收再利用对产业经济增长的影响。     

人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应

人力资本梯度升级是指人力资本由低至高逐步跃迁的高级化过程,其可能通过促进产业结构升级、技术创新作用于经济增长。利用2000—2015年全国30个省级行政区面板数据,实证分析了人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应。研究发现:人力资本梯度升级对经济增长有显著的促进效应,第三梯度人力资本对经济增长促进效应最强。人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应存在时间和地区异质性:随时间的推进,人力资本梯度升级对经济增长的促进效应逐渐增强;东部和高经济发展地区人力资本梯度升级的经济增长效应要高于西部和低经济发展地区。基于以上结论,为推动经济长期增长进一步提出可行的对策建议。     

中国省际人口流动与 人力资本流动差异性分析

人力资本流动与人口流动相关却不相同,本文采用2010-2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从流动方向和流动强度两方面对我国省际人口流动引致的人力资本流动现象加以研究。结果表明从流动方向分析,各省人口净流动方向基本呈现时间一致性并且流入流出区域具有稳定性。在调查期间人口净流出省份为16个,人口净流入省份为15个,没有明显变化。人力资本净流向与人口净流向完全一致,但省际人口净流向与高级人力资本净流向并不完全一致,山西、广西、重庆等省市的高级人力资本净流向始终与总人力资本净流向相反。本文采用流出流入比率和迁移选择中心两种指标测算人力资本流动强度,结果基本一致。人力资本流动中心与人口流动中心分布均较为固定。2010年人力资本流动强度最大的省份在2016年的流动强度也更强,流动强度在省际呈现惯性和马太效应。人力资本流入最强地区包括北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,人力资本流出最强省份始终包括安徽、四川、河南等省份。以人力资本流出弹性衡量人力资本流出强度与人口流出强度的相对强弱,东部地区、东北地区省份人力资本的流出强度始终大于人口流出强度,西部地区省份差异较大。考虑各省近五年经济增长状况,人口流动或者人力资本流动对经济增长的影响是非线性的。     

人口偏好结构转变、人口质量红利与农业发展：以中国东部地区为例

由工业化、城市化引致的农村人口偏好结构转变加速农业发展模式转变,农村人力资本水平提升为农业由人口数量红利型向人口质量红利型发展带来新的契机。作为内地经济最发达的东部地区在农村人口偏好结构正在发生转变的背景下,人力资本虽对农业增长具有正向作用但低于现代物质资本的贡献,东部地区农业发展仍依赖物质资本红利。随着工业化和城市化的持续推进,农村人口质量偏好进一步得到强化,东部地区将率先实现人口质量红利型农业发展模式。     

Population aging, health care, and growth: a comment on the effects of capital accumulation

In a recent paper, Hashimoto and Tabata (J Popul Econ 23:571–593, 2010) present a theoretical model in which the increase in the rate of dependence due to aging of the population leads to a reallocation of labor from non-health to health production and, as a consequence, to a decline in economic growth. We argue that these results rely heavily on assumptions of a “small economy” and perfect capital mobility, which tie down the amount of capital. In this paper, we proceed by analyzing the case of an economy in which the availability of capital is endogenously determined by domestic savings. We find that the new “capital accumulation effect” is opposite to the previous “dependency rate effect,” leaving the effect on economic growth ambiguous. In particular, if the former prevailed, population aging would foster economic growth, a result that finds support in recent empirical work.     

中国人力资本空间分布差异的实证分析

教育是人力资本形成的重要途径,在研究人力资本空间分布差异时分别用中国东、中、西部地区人口的平均受教育年限、人力资本基尼系数、不同学历层次的人口比例和教育投资反映人力资本状况。文中采用1994-2009年的时序数据,分别从人力资本存量、人力资本结构和人力资本投资三个角度,对中国东、中、西部地区人力资本差异进行系统的分析和比较;并就如何缩小区域间人力资本差距协调区域经济发展,促进人力资源丰富的西部地区经济发展给出政策建议。     

人力资本和外商直接投资的关系研究

人力资本和外商直接投资 (FDI)都是一国经济增长的驱动因素 ,但两者并不独立 ,而是互为补充的。FDI能够对东道国的人力资本发展起到重要作用 ,同时 ,东道国人力资本的发展也会影响到一国吸收外商直接投资的情况。文章在分析两者关系的基础上 ,针对我国目前的情况 ,提出要加大我国的教育投资 ,提高人力资本水平 ,更好地吸纳外商直接投资。     

人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据

利用一个包含人力资本的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,从索洛增长理论入手,分析人口老龄化和人口增长率对经济增长的影响,理论模型的推理结果表明人口老龄化和人口增长对经济增长均产生不利影响。再根据理论模型的结果构造了人口老龄化和人口增长影响经济增长的实证模型,收集和使用中国1990～2008年的省级面板数据对理论模型的推理结果进行实证检验,证实了理论模型的推理结果。实证研究还表明:(1)初始的人均GDP对经济增长的影响为负,说明中国的区域经济发展出现了条件收敛的情形;(2)人力资本投资、储蓄率和劳动参与率对经济增长有着显著的正向促进作用。     

西部地区人口红利效应与区域增长差距

本文从人口红利效应角度比较区域之间的增长差距,发现人口红利效应的发挥并非是经济增长的决定因素,经济增长还受制于其他因素的影响,人力资本投资和由知识积累及扩散获得的技术进步以及制度等其他要素从深层次上决定着区域差距的逐渐扩大。     

影响人力资本投资和利用的制度分析

随着西方人力资本理论的兴起和传播,人们开始重视人力资本在经济增长中的作用,各国政府都加大了对人力资本的投资,但是历史和现实说明人力资本对于经济增长的实际作用,不仅取决于其质量的高低和数量的多少,还取决于相应制度的激励和影响。加强对人力资本投资和利用的制度研究,改变当前我国存在的人口众多与低素质严重并存、人力资源丰富与人力资本短缺并存、人才匮乏与人才浪费并存等现象,促进人力资本投资和有效使用的制度建设,具有特殊的理论意义和实践意义。     

Endogenous fertility and human capital in a Schumpeterian growth model

This study develops a scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation. The model features two engines of long-run economic growth: R&D-based innovation and human capital accumulation. One novelty of this study is endogenous fertility, which negatively affects the growth rate of human capital. Given this growth-theoretic framework, we characterize the dynamics of the model and derive comparative statics of the equilibrium growth rates with respect to structural parameters. As for policy implications, we analyze how patent policy affects economic growth through technological progress, human capital accumulation, and endogenous fertility. In summary, we find that strengthening patent protection has (a) a positive effect on technological progress, (b) a negative effect on human capital accumulation through a higher rate of fertility, and (c) an ambiguous overall effect on economic growth.     

广州就业人口文化素质与经济增长的定量分析

利用第四、五次人口普查资料,考察广州就业人口文化素质变动特征;建立人力资本与经济增长的关联模型,计算分析人力资本对经济增长的贡献:提出实现广州人口文化素质与经济可持续发展的对策。     

Education and income inequality: The role of a social protection system

In this paper we aim to understand the role a welfare state can play in stimulating risky but profitable activities like investment in education, and in reducing income inequality. We analyze how unemployment benefits may affect investment in education when the latter is characterized by uncertain returns. This is done in an overlapping generations model in which endogenous growth is introduced through human capital accumulation. We develop a numerical example of the model in order to reproduce some key differences between the European versus the North American economy; differences that, according to this model, result from the different degree of social protection characterizing both economies. Received: 02 June 1999/Accepted: 22 February 2000