我国不同时期人口生命素质指数比较分析

随着生育率的不断下降,关于中国人口素质的研究已愈益受到重视。我国幅员辽阔、人口众多,30个省、市、自治区之间的社会经济条件和自然地理环境等差异很大,在这个基础上长期形成的人口素质的状况也很不相同。如何对人口素质给予定量的描述,比较分析各地区的的人口素质差异,认识中国人口素质现状,对提高中国人口素质有重要的意义。人口生命素质指数(PQLI,The Phsical Quality of Life Index)是目前使用较多的衡量人口素质高低的一个综合指标,它是1977年美国的大卫·莫里斯提出来的,适用于考察发展中国家的人口素质水平。 PQLI是一个综合反映人口身体素质和文化素质的指标。该指标是由识字率、婴儿死     

我国人口素质与经济协调发展关系的实证研究

本文利用因子综合得分对人口素质和经济系统进行协调分析,得出结论2000年与1990年相比,经济系统对人口素质的协调程度下降,人口素质对经济系统的协调程度稍有改善,人口素质开始在经济发展中发挥出重要的作用,但是人口素质提高的速度慢于经济发展的速度,人口素质有落后于经济发展的要求的趋势。     

我国人口素质与经济增长关系实证分析

本文在对人口素质的概念进行讨论及其构成进行分析的基础上．阐述了国内关于人口素质与经济增长关系的研究现状,而且使用离散系数法测度我国的人口素质水平,并将其作为一个变量引入生产函数,对我国人口素质与经济增长间的关系进行了实证研究,从定量角度说明了人口素质对社会经济发展的意义。     

中国西部地区的人口和人口素质

实施西部地区大开发是一项振兴中华民族的宏伟战略任务 ,对稳定低生育水平、控制人口数量、提高人口素质具有重要的意义。本文利用国家统计局１９９９年人口变动情况抽样调查数据 ,揭示出我国西部地区的人口特征 ,运用主成分和聚类分析多元统计分析方法 ,分析和比较了１９９９年西部地区的人口素质差异及在全国所处的地位。一、西部地区人口的特点我国西部地区疆域辽阔 ,人口稀少 ,是少数民族聚集的地区。虽然进入９０年代以来 ,西部地区在控制人口数量、提高人口素质方面作出了努力 ,人口自然增长率呈现平稳下降的趋势 ,但西部地区的人口出…     

《人口素质概论》即将出版

人口素质的研究,在我国有重大的理论和现实意义,我国人口政策的一个基本点就是要提高人口素质,如何提高全民族的身体健康水平和科学文化水平是摆在我们面前的重要任务。国家计划生育委员会宣教司陈剑同志所著的《人口素质概论》,对人口素质在理论上作了较系统的分析和研究。该书以人口素质内容的两方面作为主线,分析和阐述了人口素质不断提高的规律、人口素质与经济增长相适应规律,以及人口素质与教育、就业、收入、分配、消费、人口移动、计划生育、精神文明的相     

我国出生人口素质偏低对发展的影响及其对策建议

中国是世界第一人口大国,也是出生缺陷高发国家。在庞大的人口数量压力还未减轻的同时,又面临着出生人口素质偏低的客观现实,严重制约了我国整体人口素质的提高。本文分析了我国出生人口素质偏低的原因,重点探讨了出生人口素质偏低对社会经济、家庭和个体发展的影响,在其基础上提出了有针对性的对策措施。     

安徽蚌埠市0～5岁儿童出生缺陷调查分析与思考

随着人口生育率的下降和疾病模式的转变，我国出生人口素质不高的问题逐渐凸显出来，出生缺陷（Birth Defecls，简称BD）和残疾作为影响人口素质的重要因素，已经成为我国和世界各国政府高度关注的重要公共卫生问题。从2005年开始，在市政府的高度重视和大力支持下，安徽省蚌埠市相关部门和单位共同承担了《蚌埠地区0～5岁儿童出生缺陷的分布、危险因素及对策》的科研课题，采用分层按比例整群抽样的方法，     

中国人口受教育状况的分析

随着社会经济的发展,我国人口素质问题越来越为社会各界人士所重视。近年来,学术界对人口素质的研究不断加强。控制人口数量,提高人口素质作为我国人口发展战略的核心内容,被决策机构提了出来,并列入基本国策内涵之中。这一切都为我们研究人口素质的重要内容——人口的受教育状况提供了有利条件。     

提高人口素质问题刍议

<正> 近年来,关于提高我国人口素质问题的讨论日见其多,讨论的问题主要集中于两方面:(1)为什么要提高我国的人口素质?(2)如何提高我国的人口素质?其途径是什么?关于前者的讨论,出发点有如联系对人口数量的控制、联系我国现代化建设的要求、联系发达国家人口素质之于我国的比较以及区域比较等;后者则从对人口素质三方面内容的理解出发,探讨各种途径和措施。这些讨论对于人口素质问题     

新疆生产建设兵团人口素质刍议

新疆生产建设兵团是新中国成立的第一个寓兵于农、担负着保卫边疆、建设边疆使命的特殊的社会集团组织,也是至今全国惟一保留下来的兵团。本文着重探讨了目前新疆生产建设兵团人口素质下降的原因及提高人口素质的几点建议。     

世纪末的俄罗斯人口问题和发展展望

２０世纪９０年代以来,随着经济的巨变,俄罗斯产生了一系列的人口问题,如高离婚率、低生育率与高人流比,多种原因造成人口素质下降、人才大量外流等。俄罗斯未来１５年人口数量将继续减少,人口素质略有提高,人口老龄化进程加快,人才外流状况短期内将难有改观。     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Some problems concerning the population thought in the Ming and Quing dynasties]

After the middle of the Ming dynasty, the Chinese feudal system began to show some influence of capitalism in its production models. Changes began to take place in its political and economic systems. In 1723, a new method of household taxation was adopted to replace the traditional taxation system, which had been based upon the population of each household. Under the new system, taxation was based upon the size of the land each household owned. As a result of this change, the population showed rapid growth. Intellectuals began to form the concept of curbing excessive population growth. They also began to pay attention to the problems of adequate material supplies, overpopulation, and possible solutions. Chinese intellectuals and scholars of the late Ming and Qing dynasties, including Xu Guangqi, Hong Liangji, Wang Shifeng, and Xue Fucheng realized the serious nature of population growth. In fact, the population figure doubledever 30 years on a regular basis. The rapid population growth caused a decline in the living standard, higher prices for consumer goods, unemployment, a decline in the population quality, and social disorders. Hong Liangji suggested that natural disasters such as floods and droughts could help reduce the population, and that improvement in agriculture, emigration, and tax reductions could promote production. Wang Shifeng was in favor of using severe laws and restrictions on marriage to control population. Xue Fucheng proposed the idea of imitating Western countries to develop capitalism and industries and increase employment opportunities to reduce the pressure of the rapid population growth.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

Modeling momentum in gradual demographic

The analysis of population momentum following a gradual decline in fertility to replacement level provides valuable insights into prospects for future population growth. Here, we extend recent work in the area by applying a new form of the quadratic hyperstable (QH) model, which relates exponentially changing fertility to the resultant exponentiated quadratic birth sequence. Modeling gradual transitions from an initial stable population to an ultimate stationary population indicates that such declines in fertility increase momentum by a product of two factors. The first factor is a previously noted continuation of stable growth for half the period of decline. The second is a not previously appreciated offsetting factor that reflects the interaction between the decline in fertility, the changing age pattern of fertility, and the changing age composition of the population. Numerical examples using both hypothetical and actual populations demonstrate that for declines of any length, the product of the two factors yields momentum values that closely agree with the results of population projections. The QH model can examine monotonic transitions between any two sets of constant vital rates. As a generalization of the fixed-rate stable model, it has great potential value in numerous areas of demographic analysis.     

Population, Nomadic Pastoralism and the Environment in the Mongolian Plateau

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between population, economic activity and the environment in the Mongolian Plateau. This analysis provides a valuable case study for several reasons. First, it elucidates a specific ecosystem—the steppe—that has not received much attention in the literature and a traditional economic activity consistent with such environment: nomadic pastoralism. Second, the Mongolian Plateau is shared by two entities, with two different economic and social organisation: the Republic of Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China. Third, these two entities have also experienced two different population dynamics that have resulted in different population densities and population pressure on natural resources. Fourth, environmental degradation does not seem to be a problem in the Republic of Mongolia, while in Inner Mongolia the quantity and quality of the grasslands are in decline.The argument discussed here is that the difference in resource depletion and environmental degradation between the two regions is mainly the result of different population dynamics, which has resulted in different human and animal population densities.     

Book reviews

Fertility has declined to below replacement levels in many of the modern industrialized countries during the last three decades. This decline has been explained by various modern socio-economic characteristics, such as the change in women's status, their increased participation in non-familial activities, modern consumption patterns, and increasing costs of raising ‘quality’ children. The Jewish population of Israel is a modern society with such characteristics. Yet, total fertility in Israel during the 1980s was at least one child higher than in most European countries. It is shown that social heterogeneity makes this an over-simplified comparison. Indeed, it is the high fertility of the orthodox population among the two major ethnic groups, combined with the decline towards below-replacement fertility of the non-orthodox, which produces the high mean fertility of the entire population. While during the 1950s and 1960s the major explanations of fertility variation were concerned with ethnicity and socio-economic status, these were replaced by religiosity in the 1970s and the 1980s.     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

Theory and methods in China's population policy]

Before 1949, China's population development was noted for its high birth rate, high death rate, and low natural growth rate. After 1949, the death rate showed a large-scale decline, the birth rate was maintained at a high level, and natural growth rate also remained high. Between 1949 and 1973, the natural growth rate was kept above a 2% annual rate. Since then, the need for population control has become increasingly obvious. The theory and methods of China's population policy can be summarized in the following points: (1) material production has to keep up with the pace of population growth, and that means the quantity and quality of the population have to match athe production of materials needed for life and consumption; (2) in a Socialist society, material production and population growth have to develop with well-designed plans; (3) the population question has a direct impact on social and economic development; (4) through enforcement of a national policy, cooperation from different individuals, and ideological education, family planning will gradually be accepted by the general public for the well-being of the country.     

Comparative study on population transition in Japan and in Europe]

Over 6,000,000 Japanese military personnel and their families returned to Japan after WWII. Within 5 years, Japan's population increased by 11,000,000. However, within 10 years of Japan's 1949 removal of restrictions on abortions and sterilization, her birth rate dropped by half. At the same time, her economy stabilized and prospered. Japan's population had made the transition from a traditional pattern of reproduction to a modern pattern. Demographers saw it as unique, calling it a "population revolution." In reality, however, Japan's "population revolution" was not unique; it belonged to the same category as Europe's population transition. The birth rate in both Europe and Japan 1st reached a peak in the 1920s before declining rapidly through the decades to the 1960s. Japan's mortality rate showed a steady decline from 1860-80, when it began a sharp decline to the 1960s. In Europe, the mortality rate remained relatively level from 1860-1900, when its rapid decline began. While Japan's population transition was very similar to Europe's, it took less time for Japan, in large part because the Japanese government played a dominant role in its nation's industrialization. Once Japan became an industrialized and capitalistic nation, birth rates began to decline. But other factors contributed to this phenomenon as well: high literacy, urbanization, modern life styles, widespread knowledge of birth control, a strong government population policy, and an attitude that fewer births was better.