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For a loss distribution belonging to a location–scale family, Fμ,σ, the risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are linear functions of the parameters: μ+τσ where τ is the corresponding risk measure of the mean-zero and unit-variance member of the family. For each risk measure, we consider a natural estimator by replacing the unknown parameters μ and σ by the sample mean and (bias corrected) sample standard deviation, respectively. The large-sample parametric confidence intervals for the risk measures are derived, relying on the asymptotic joint distribution of the sample mean and sample standard deviation. Simulation studies with the Normal, Laplace and Gumbel families illustrate that the derived asymptotic confidence intervals for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall outperform those of Bahadur (1966) and Brazauskas et al. (2008), respectively. The method can also be effectively applied to Log-location-scale families whose supports are positive reals; an illustrative example is given in the area of financial credit risk. 相似文献
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We consider the problem of estimating the mean θ of an Np(θ,Ip) distribution with squared error loss ∥δ−θ∥2 and under the constraint ∥θ∥≤m, for some constant m>0. Using Stein's identity to obtain unbiased estimates of risk, Karlin's sign change arguments, and conditional risk analysis, we compare the risk performance of truncated linear estimators with that of the maximum likelihood estimator δmle. We obtain for fixed (m,p) sufficient conditions for dominance. An asymptotic framework is developed, where we demonstrate that the truncated linear minimax estimator dominates δmle, and where we obtain simple and accurate measures of relative improvement in risk. Numerical evaluations illustrate the effectiveness of the asymptotic framework for approximating the risks for moderate or large values of p. 相似文献
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Consider the model where there are I independent multivariate normal treatment populations with p×1 mean vectors μi, i=1,…,I, and covariance matrix Σ. Independently the (I+1)st population corresponds to a control and it too is multivariate normal with mean vector μI+1 and covariance matrix Σ. Now consider the following two multiple testing problems. 相似文献
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Alexander Kukush Andrii Malenko Hans Schneeweiss 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2009
We consider a regression of y on x given by a pair of mean and variance functions with a parameter vector θ to be estimated that also appears in the distribution of the regressor variable x. The estimation of θ is based on an extended quasi-score (QS) function. We show that the QS estimator is optimal within a wide class of estimators based on linear-in-y unbiased estimating functions. Of special interest is the case where the distribution of x depends only on a subvector α of θ, which may be considered a nuisance parameter. In general, α must be estimated simultaneously together with the rest of θ, but there are cases where α can be pre-estimated. A major application of this model is the classical measurement error model, where the corrected score (CS) estimator is an alternative to the QS estimator. We derive conditions under which the QS estimator is strictly more efficient than the CS estimator. 相似文献
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We consider m×m covariance matrices, Σ1 and Σ2, which satisfy Σ2-Σ1=Δ, where Δ has a specified rank. Maximum likelihood estimators of Σ1 and Σ2 are obtained when sample covariance matrices having Wishart distributions are available and rank(Δ) is known. The likelihood ratio statistic for a test about the value of rank(Δ) is also given and some properties of its null distribution are obtained. The methods developed in this paper are illustrated through an example. 相似文献
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Consider a mixture problem consisting of k classes. Suppose we observe an s-dimensional random vector X whose distribution is specified by the relations P(X∈A|Y=i)=Pi(A), where Y is an unobserved class identifier defined on {1,…,k}, having distribution P(Y=i)=pi. Assuming the distributions Pi having a common covariance matrix, elegant identities are presented that connect the matrix of Fisher information in Y on the parameters p1,…,pk, the matrix of linear information in X, and the Mahalanobis distances between the pairs of P 's. Since the parameters are not free, the information matrices are singular and the technique of generalized inverses is used. A matrix extension of the Mahalanobis distance and its invariant forms are introduced that are of interest in their own right. In terms of parameter estimation, the results provide an independent of the parameter upper bound for the loss of accuracy by esimating p1,…,pk from a sample of X′s, as compared with the ideal estimator based on a random sample of Y′s. 相似文献
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In this work we study the limiting distribution of the maximum term of periodic integer-valued sequences with marginal distribution belonging to a particular class where the tail decays exponentially. This class does not belong to the domain of attraction of any max-stable distribution. Nevertheless, we prove that the limiting distribution is max-semistable when we consider the maximum of the first kn observations, for a suitable sequence {kn} increasing to infinity. We obtain an expression for calculating the extremal index of sequences satisfying certain local conditions similar to conditions D(m)(un), m∈N, defined by Chernick et al. (1991). We apply the results to a class of max-autoregressive sequences and a class of moving average models. The results generalize the ones obtained for the stationary case. 相似文献
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In this paper we revisit the classical problem of interval estimation for one-binomial parameter and for the log odds ratio of two binomial parameters. We examine the confidence intervals provided by two versions of the modified log likelihood root: the usual Barndorff-Nielsen's r* and a Bayesian version of the r* test statistic. 相似文献
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Ashish Das Aloke Dey Ling-Yau Chan Kashinath Chatterjee 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
A popular measure to assess 2-level supersaturated designs is the E(s2) criterion. In this paper, improved lower bounds on E(s2) are obtained. The same improvement has recently been established by Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. However, our analysis provides more details on precisely when an improvement is possible, which is lacking in Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. The equivalence of the bounds obtained by Butler et al. [2001. A general method of constructing E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 63, 621–632] (in the cases where their result applies) and those obtained by Bulutoglu and Cheng [2004. Construction of E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs. Ann. Statist. 32, 1662–1678] is established. We also give two simple methods of constructing E(s2)-optimal designs. 相似文献
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In common with other non-linear models, the optimal design for a limiting dilution assay (LDA) depends on the value of the unknown parameter, θ, in the model. Consequently optimal designs cannot be specified unless some assumptions are made about the possible values of θ. If a prior distribution can be specified then a Bayesian approach can be adopted. A proper specification of the Bayesian approach requires the aim of the experiment to be described and quantified through an appropriate utility function. This paper addresses the problem of finding optimal designs for LDAs when the aim is to determine whether θ is above or below a specified threshold, θ0. 相似文献
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Joseph P.S. Kung Anna de Mier Xinyu Sun Catherine Yan 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2009
We consider paths in the plane with (1,0), (0,1), and (a,b)-steps that start at the origin, end at height n, and stay strictly to the left of a given non-decreasing right boundary. We show that if the boundary is periodic and has slope at most b/a, then the ordinary generating function for the number of such paths ending at height n is algebraic. Our argument is in two parts. We use a simple combinatorial decomposition to obtain an Appell relation or “umbral” generating function, in which the power zn is replaced by a power series of the form znφn(z), where φn(0)=1. Then we convert (in an explicit way) the umbral generating function to an ordinary generating function by solving a system of linear equations and a polynomial equation. This conversion implies that the ordinary generating function is algebraic. We give several concrete examples, including an alternative way to solve the tennis ball problem. 相似文献
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Suppose all events occurring in an unknown number (ν) of iid renewal processes, with a common renewal distribution F , are observed for a fixed time τ, where both ν and F are unknown. The individual processes are not known a priori, but for each event, the process that generated it is identified. For example, in software reliability application, the errors (or bugs) in a piece of software are not known a priori, but whenever the software fails, the error causing the failure is identified. We present a nonparametric method for estimating ν and investigate its properties. Our results show that the proposed estimator performs well in terms of bias and asymptotic normality, while the MLE of ν derived assuming that the common renewal distribution is exponential may be seriously biased if that assumption does not hold. 相似文献
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In this paper a neat construction is provided for three new families of group divisible designs that generalize some designs from Clatworthy's table of the only 11 designs with two associate classes that have block size four, three groups, and replication numbers at most 10. In each case (namely, λ1=4 and λ2=5, λ1=4 and λ2=2, and λ1=8 and λ2=4), we have proved that the necessary conditions found are also sufficient for the existence of such GDD's with block size four and three groups, with one possible exception. 相似文献
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We consider density estimation for a smooth stationary process Xt, t∈R, based on a discrete sample Yi=XΔi, i=0,…,n=T/Δ. By a suitable interpolation scheme of order p , we augment data to form an approximation Xp,t, t∈[0,T], of the continuous-time process and base our density estimate on the augmented sample path. Our results show that this can improve the rate of convergence (measured in terms of n) of the density estimate. Among other things, this implies that recording n observations using a small Δ can be more efficient than recording n independent observations. 相似文献