Importance resampling for the smoothed bootstrap

Alternative methods of estimating properties of unknown distributions include the bootstrap and the smoothed bootstrap. In the standard bootstrap setting, Johns (1988) introduced an importance resam¬pling procedure that results in more accurate approximation to the bootstrap estimate of a distribution function or a quantile. With a suitable “exponential tilting” similar to that used by Johns, we derived a smoothed version of importance resampling in the framework of the smoothed bootstrap. Smoothed importance resampling procedures were developed for the estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean, the Studentized variance, and the correlation coefficient. Implementation of these procedures are presented via simulation results which concentrate on the problem of estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean and Studentized variance for different sample sizes and various pre-specified smoothing bandwidths for the normal data; additional simulations were conducted for the estimation of quantiles of the distribution of the Studentized mean under an optimal smoothing bandwidth when the original data were simulated from three different parent populations: lognormal, t(3) and t(10). These results suggest that in cases where it is advantageous to use the smoothed bootstrap rather than the standard bootstrap, the amount of resampling necessary might be substantially reduced by the use of importance resampling methods and the efficiency gains depend on the bandwidth used in the kernel density estimation.     

Sufficient m-out-of-n (m/n) bootstrap

Traditional resampling methods for estimating sampling distributions sometimes fail, and alternative approaches are then needed. For example, if the classical central limit theorem does not hold and the naïve bootstrap fails, the m/n bootstrap, based on smaller-sized resamples, may be used as an alternative. An alternative to the naïve bootstrap, the sufficient bootstrap, which uses only the distinct observations in a bootstrap sample, is another recently proposed bootstrap approach that has been suggested to reduce the computational burden associated with bootstrapping. It works as long as naïve bootstrap does. However, if the naïve bootstrap fails, so will the sufficient bootstrap. In this paper, we propose combining the sufficient bootstrap with the m/n bootstrap in order to both regain consistent estimation of sampling distributions and to reduce the computational burden of the bootstrap. We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for asymptotic normality of the proposed method, and propose new values for the resample size m. We compare the proposed method with the naïve bootstrap, the sufficient bootstrap, and the m/n bootstrap by simulation.     

A recentred bootstrap procedure for constructing uniformly correct confidence sets under smooth function models

It has been found, under a smooth function model setting, that the n out of n bootstrap is inconsistent at stationary points of the smooth function, but that the m out of n bootstrap is consistent, provided that a correct convergence rate is specified of the plug-in smooth function estimator. By considering a more general moving-parameter framework, we show that neither of the above bootstrap methods is consistent uniformly over neighbourhoods of stationary points, so that anomalies often arise of coverages of bootstrap sets over certain subsets of parameter values. We propose a recentred bootstrap procedure for constructing confidence sets with uniformly correct coverages over compact sets containing stationary points. A weighted bootstrap procedure is also proposed as an alternative under more general circumstances. Unlike the m out of n bootstrap, both procedures do not require knowledge of the convergence rate of the smooth function estimator. Empirical performance of our procedures is illustrated with numerical examples.     

Resampling schemes with low resampling intensity and their applications in testing hypotheses

The paper explores statistical features of different resampling schemes under low resampling intensity. The original sample is considered in a very general framework of triangular arrays, without independence or equally distributed assumptions, although improvements under such conditions are also provided. We show that low resampling schemes have very interesting and flexible properties, providing new insights into the performance of widely used resampling methods, including subsampling, two-sample unbalanced permutation statistics or wild bootstrap. It is shown that, under regularity assumptions, resampling tests with critical values derived by the appertaining low resampling procedures are asymptotically valid and there is no loss of power compared with the power function of an ideal (but unfeasible) parametric family of tests. Moreover we show that in several contexts, including regression models, they may act as a filter for the normal part of a limit distribution, turning down the influence of outliers.     

Hybrid regions for post-change mean in a sequence of normal variables

The hybrid bootstrap uses resampling ideas to extend the duality approach to the interval estimation for a parameter of interest when there are nuisance parameters. The confidence region constructed by the hybrid bootstrap may perform much better than the ordinary bootstrap region in a situation where the data provide substantial information about the nuisance parameter, but limited information about the parameter of interest. We apply this method to estimate the post-change mean after a change is detected by a stopping procedure in a sequence of independent normal variables. Since distribution theory in change point problems is generally a challenge, we use bootstrap simulation to find empirical distributions of test statistics and calculate critical thresholds. Both likelihood ratio and Bayesian test statistics are considered to set confidence regions for post-change means in the normal model. In the simulation studies, the performance of hybrid regions are compared with that of ordinary bootstrap regions in terms of the widths and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals.     

Two‐Sample Bootstrap Hypothesis Tests for Three‐Dimensional Labelled Landmark Data

Abstract. We investigate resampling methodologies for testing the null hypothesis that two samples of labelled landmark data in three dimensions come from populations with a common mean reflection shape or mean reflection size‐and‐shape. The investigation includes comparisons between (i) two different test statistics that are functions of the projection onto tangent space of the data, namely the James statistic and an empirical likelihood statistic; (ii) bootstrap and permutation procedures; and (iii) three methods for resampling under the null hypothesis, namely translating in tangent space, resampling using weights determined by empirical likelihood and using a novel method to transform the original sample entirely within refection shape space. We present results of extensive numerical simulations, on which basis we recommend a bootstrap test procedure that we expect will work well in practise. We demonstrate the procedure using a data set of human faces, to test whether humans in different age groups have a common mean face shape.     

Cross-sectional correlation robust tests for panel cointegration

We use meta-analytic procedures to develop new tests for panel cointegration, combining p-values from time-series cointegration tests on the units of the panel. The tests are robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence between the panel units. To achieve the latter, we employ a sieve bootstrap procedure with joint resampling of the units’ residuals. A simulation study shows that the tests can have substantially smaller size distortion than tests ignoring the presence of cross-sectional dependence while preserving high power. We apply the tests to a panel of post-Bretton Woods data to test for weak purchasing power parity.     

Analytical approximations for iterated bootstrap confidence intervals

Standard algorithms for the construction of iterated bootstrap confidence intervals are computationally very demanding, requiring nested levels of bootstrap resampling. We propose an alternative approach to constructing double bootstrap confidence intervals that involves replacing the inner level of resampling by an analytical approximation. This approximation is based on saddlepoint methods and a tail probability approximation of DiCiccio and Martin (1991). Our technique significantly reduces the computational expense of iterated bootstrap calculations. A formal algorithm for the construction of our approximate iterated bootstrap confidence intervals is presented, and some crucial practical issues arising in its implementation are discussed. Our procedure is illustrated in the case of constructing confidence intervals for ratios of means using both real and simulated data. We repeat an experiment of Schenker (1985) involving the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals for a variance and demonstrate that our technique makes feasible the construction of accurate bootstrap confidence intervals in that context. Finally, we investigate the use of our technique in a more complex setting, that of constructing confidence intervals for a correlation coefficient.     

Bootstrapping moving average models

Summary In recent years, the bootstrap method has been extended to time series analysis where the observations are serially correlated. Contributions have focused on the autoregressive model producing alternative resampling procedures. In contrast, apart from some empirical applications, very little attention has been paid to the possibility of extending the use of the bootstrap method to pure moving average (MA) or mixed ARMA models. In this paper, we present a new bootstrap procedure which can be applied to assess the distributional properties of the moving average parameters estimates obtained by a least square approach. We discuss the methodology and the limits of its usage. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap approach is compared with that of the competing alternative given by the Monte Carlo simulation. Research partially supported by CNR and MURST.     

Implementing Monte Carlo tests with p-value buckets

Software packages usually report the results of statistical tests using p-values. Users often interpret these values by comparing them with standard thresholds, for example, 0.1, 1, and 5%, which is sometimes reinforced by a star rating (***, **, and *, respectively). We consider an arbitrary statistical test whose p-value p is not available explicitly, but can be approximated by Monte Carlo samples, for example, by bootstrap or permutation tests. The standard implementation of such tests usually draws a fixed number of samples to approximate p. However, the probability that the exact and the approximated p-value lie on different sides of a threshold (the resampling risk) can be high, particularly for p-values close to a threshold. We present a method to overcome this. We consider a finite set of user-specified intervals that cover [0, 1] and that can be overlapping. We call these p-value buckets. We present algorithms that, with arbitrarily high probability, return a p-value bucket containing p. We prove that for both a bounded resampling risk and a finite runtime, overlapping buckets need to be employed, and that our methods both bound the resampling risk and guarantee a finite runtime for such overlapping buckets. To interpret decisions with overlapping buckets, we propose an extension of the star rating system. We demonstrate that our methods are suitable for use in standard software, including for low p-value thresholds occurring in multiple testing settings, and that they can be computationally more efficient than standard implementations.     

The resampling of entropies with the application of biodiversity

This paper discusses the bootstrap test of entropies. Since the comparison of entropies is of prime interest in applied fields, finding an appropriate way to carry out such a comparison is of utmost importance. This paper presents how resampling should be performed to obtain an accurate p-value. Although the test using a pair-wise bootstrap confidence interval (CI) has already been dealt with in few works, here the bootstrap tests are studied because it may demand quite a different resampling algorithm compared with the CI. Moreover, the multiple test is studied. The proposed tests appear to yield several appreciable advantages. The easy implementation and the power of the proposed test can be considered as advantages. Here the entropy of the discrete variable is studied. The proposed tests are examined using Monte Carlo investigations and also evaluated using various distributions.     

Estimating kurtosis and confidence intervals for the variance under nonnormality

Exact confidence intervals for variances rely on normal distribution assumptions. Alternatively, large-sample confidence intervals for the variance can be attained if one estimates the kurtosis of the underlying distribution. The method used to estimate the kurtosis has a direct impact on the performance of the interval and thus the quality of statistical inferences. In this paper the author considers a number of kurtosis estimators combined with large-sample theory to construct approximate confidence intervals for the variance. In addition, a nonparametric bootstrap resampling procedure is used to build bootstrap confidence intervals for the variance. Simulated coverage probabilities using different confidence interval methods are computed for a variety of sample sizes and distributions. A modification to a conventional estimator of the kurtosis, in conjunction with adjustments to the mean and variance of the asymptotic distribution of a function of the sample variance, improves the resulting coverage values for leptokurtically distributed populations.     

Applying the rescaling bootstrap under imputation: a simulation study

Resampling methods are a common measure to estimate the variance of a statistic of interest when data consist of nonresponse and imputation is used as compensation. Applying resampling methods usually means that subsamples are drawn from the original sample and that variance estimates are computed based on point estimators of several subsamples. However, newer resampling methods such as the rescaling bootstrap of Chipperfield and Preston [Efficient bootstrap for business surveys. Surv Methodol. 2007;33:167–172] include all elements of the original sample in the computation of its point estimator. Thus, procedures to consider imputation in resampling methods cannot be applied in the ordinary way. For such methods, modifications are necessary. This paper presents an approach applying newer resampling methods for imputed data. The Monte Carlo simulation study conducted in the paper shows that the proposed approach leads to reliable variance estimates in contrast to other modifications.     

Bias evaluation in the proportional hazards model

We consider two approaches for bias evaluation and reduction in the proportional hazards model proposed by Cox. The first one is an analytical approach in which we derive the n^-1 bias term of the maximum partial likelihood estimator. The second approach consists of resampling methods, namely the jackknife and the bootstrap. We compare all methods through a comprehensive set of Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that bias-corrected estimators have better finite-sample performance than the standard maximum partial likelihood estimator. There is some evidence oithe bootstrap-correction superiority over the jackknife-correction but its performance is similar to the analytical estimator. Finaily an application iliustrates the proposed approaches.     

The local fractional bootstrap

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high‐frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method, the local fractional bootstrap, relies on simulating an auxiliary fractional Brownian motion that mimics the fine properties of high‐frequency differences of the Brownian semistationary process under the null hypothesis. We prove the first‐order validity of the bootstrap method, and in simulations, we observe that the bootstrap‐based hypothesis test provides considerable finite‐sample improvements over an existing test that is based on a central limit theorem. This is important when studying the roughness properties of time series data. We illustrate this by applying the bootstrap method to two empirical data sets: We assess the roughness of a time series of high‐frequency asset prices and we test the validity of Kolmogorov's scaling law in atmospheric turbulence data.     

Two new data-dependent choices of m when applying the m-out-of-n bootstrap to hypothesis testing

The traditional non-parametric bootstrap (referred to as the n-out-of-n bootstrap) is a widely applicable and powerful tool for statistical inference, but in important situations it can fail. It is well known that by using a bootstrap sample of size m, different from n, the resulting m-out-of-n bootstrap provides a method for rectifying the traditional bootstrap inconsistency. Moreover, recent studies have shown that interesting cases exist where it is better to use the m-out-of-n bootstrap in spite of the fact that the n-out-of-n bootstrap works. In this paper, we discuss another case by considering its application to hypothesis testing. Two new data-based choices of m are proposed in this set-up. The results of simulation studies are presented to provide empirical comparisons between the performance of the traditional bootstrap and the m-out-of-n bootstrap, based on the two data-dependent choices of m, as well as on an existing method in the literature for choosing m. These results show that the m-out-of-n bootstrap, based on our choice of m, generally outperforms the traditional bootstrap procedure as well as the procedure based on the choice of m proposed in the literature.     

Fitting Emax models to clinical trial dose–response data when the high dose asymptote is ill defined

We consider fitting the so‐called Emax model to continuous response data from clinical trials designed to investigate the dose–response relationship for an experimental compound. When there is insufficient information in the data to estimate all of the parameters because of the high dose asymptote being ill defined, maximum likelihood estimation fails to converge. We explore the use of either bootstrap resampling or the profile likelihood to make inferences about effects and doses required to give a particular effect, using limits on the parameter values to obtain the value of the maximum likelihood when the high dose asymptote is ill defined. The results obtained show these approaches to be comparable with or better than some others that have been used when maximum likelihood estimation fails to converge and that the profile likelihood method outperforms the method of bootstrap resampling used. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IMPORTANCE BOOTSTRAP RESAMPLING FOR PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS REGRESSION

Importance resampling is an approach that uses exponential tilting to reduce the resampling necessary for the construction of nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals. The properties of bootstrap importance confidence intervals are well established when the data is a smooth function of means and when there is no censoring. However, in the framework of survival or time-to-event data, the asymptotic properties of importance resampling have not been rigorously studied, mainly because of the unduly complicated theory incurred when data is censored. This paper uses extensive simulation to show that, for parameter estimates arising from fitting Cox proportional hazards models, importance bootstrap confidence intervals can be constructed if the importance resampling probabilities of the records for the n individuals in the study are determined by the empirical influence function for the parameter of interest. Our results show that, compared to uniform resampling, importance resampling improves the relative mean-squared-error (MSE) efficiency by a factor of nine (for n = 200). The efficiency increases significantly with sample size, is mildly associated with the amount of censoring, but decreases slightly as the number of bootstrap resamples increases. The extra CPU time requirement for calculating importance resamples is negligible when compared to the large improvement in MSE efficiency. The method is illustrated through an application to data on chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which highlights that the bootstrap confidence interval is the preferred alternative to large sample inferences when the distribution of a specific covariate deviates from normality. Our results imply that, because of its computational efficiency, importance resampling is recommended whenever bootstrap methodology is implemented in a survival framework. Its use is particularly important when complex covariates are involved or the survival problem to be solved is part of a larger problem; for instance, when determining confidence bounds for models linking survival time with clusters identified in gene expression microarray data.     

Direct density estimation of L-estimates via characteristic functions with applications

In this note we propose a new and novel kernel density estimator for directly estimating the probability and cumulative distribution function of an L-estimate from a single population based on utilizing the theory in Knight (1985) in conjunction with classic inversion theory. This idea is further developed for a kernel density estimator for the difference of L-estimates from two independent populations. The methodology is developed via a “plug-in” approach, but it is distinct from the classic bootstrap methodology in that it is analytically and computationally feasible to provide an exact estimate of the distribution function and thus eliminates the resampling related error. The asymptotic and finite sample properties of our estimators are examined. The procedure is illustrated via generating the kernel density estimate for the Tukey's trimean from a small data set.     

Geometrically Corrected Second Order Analysis of Events on a Linear Network,with Applications to Ecology and Criminology

Abstract. We study point patterns of events that occur on a network of lines, such as road accidents recorded on a road network. Okabe and Yamada developed a ‘network K function’, analogous to Ripley's K function, for analysis of such data. However, values of the network K‐function depend on the network geometry, making interpretation difficult. In this study we propose a correction of the network K‐function that intrinsically compensates for the network geometry. This geometrical correction restores many natural and desirable properties of K, including its direct relationship to the pair correlation function. For a completely random point pattern, on any network, the corrected network K‐function is the identity. The corrected estimator is intrinsically corrected for edge effects and has approximately constant variance. We obtain exact and asymptotic expressions for the bias and variance of under complete randomness. We extend these results to an ‘inhomogeneous’ network K‐function which compensates for a spatially varying intensity of points. We demonstrate applications to ecology (webs of the urban wall spider Oecobius navus) and criminology (street crime in Chicago).