Approximate Marginal Posterior Distributions Using Asymptotic Modes

This article gives asymptotic expansions for marginal posterior distributions with asymptotic modes of order n ^?2, and shows their validity. In addition, by using the asymptotic expansion, an approximate central posterior credible interval is derived.     

Bayesian estimation of renewal function for inverse Gaussian renewal process

Two approximation methods are used to obtain the Bayes estimate for the renewal function of inverse Gaussian renewal process. Both approximations use a gamma-type conditional prior for the location parameter, a non-informative marginal prior for the shape parameter, and a squared error loss function. Simulations compare the accuracy of the estimators and indicate that the Tieney and Kadane (T–K)-based estimator out performs Maximum Likelihood (ML)- and Lindley (L)-based estimator. Computations for the T–K-based Bayes estimate employ the generalized Newton's method as well as a recent modified Newton's method with cubic convergence to maximize modified likelihood functions. The program is available from the author.     

Estimation across multiple models with application to Bayesian computing and software development

Statistical models are sometimes incorporated into computer software for making predictions about future observations. When the computer model consists of a single statistical model this corresponds to estimation of a function of the model parameters. This paper is concerned with the case that the computer model implements multiple, individually-estimated statistical sub-models. This case frequently arises, for example, in models for medical decision making that derive parameter information from multiple clinical studies. We develop a method for calculating the posterior mean of a function of the parameter vectors of multiple statistical models that is easy to implement in computer software, has high asymptotic accuracy, and has a computational cost linear in the total number of model parameters. The formula is then used to derive a general result about posterior estimation across multiple models. The utility of the results is illustrated by application to clinical software that estimates the risk of fatal coronary disease in people with diabetes.     

Laplace approximations to posterior moments and marginal distributions on circles,spheres, and cylinders

We extend recent work on Laplace approximations (Tierney and Kadane 1986; Tierney, Kass, and Kadane 1989) from parameter spaces that are subspaces of R^k to those that are on circles, spheres, and cylinders. While such distributions can be mapped onto the real line (for example, a distribution on the circle can be thought of as a function of an angle θ, 0 ? 0 ? 2π), that the end points coincide is not a feature of the real line, and requires special treatment. Laplace approximations on the real line make essential use of the normal integral in both the numerator and the denominator. Here that role is played by the von Mises integral on the circle, by the Bingham integrals on the spheres and hyperspheres, and by the normal-von Mises and normal-Bingham integrals on the cylinders and hypercylinders, respectively. We begin with a brief introduction to Laplace approximations and to previous Bayesian work on circles, spheres, and cylinders. We then develop the theory for parameter spaces that are hypercylinders, since all other shapes considered here are special cases. We compute some examples, which show reasonable accuracy even for small samples.     

A test for equality of variances with censored samples

A variance homogeneity test for type II right-censored samples is proposed. The test is based on Bartlett's statistic. The asymptotic distribution of the statistic is investigated. The limiting distribution is that of a linear combination of i.i.d. chi-square variables with 1 degree of freedom. By using simulation, the critical values of the null distribution of the modified Bartlett's statistic for testing the homogeneity of variances of two normal populations are obtained when the sample sizes and censoring levels are not equal. Also, we investigate the properties of the proposed test (size, power and robustness). Results show that the distribution of the test statistic depends on the censoring level. An example of the use of the new methodology in animal science involving reproduction in ewes is provided.     

Likelihood and higher-order approximations to tail areas: A review and annotated bibliography

Recent developments in higher-order asymptotic theory for statistical inference have emphasized the fundamental role of the likelihood function in providing accurate approximations to cumulative distribution functions. This paper summarizes the main results, with an emphasis on classes of problems for which relatively easily implemented solutions exist. A survey of the literature indicates the large number of problems solved and solvable by this method. Generalizations and extensions, with suggestions for further development, are considered.     

Test and prediction in factorial models with independent variance estimates

The multiple inference character of several tests in the same application is usually taken into consideration by requiring that the tests have a multiple level of significance. Also, a prediction problem in an application with several possible predictor variables requires that the multiple inference character of the problem be considered. This is not being done in the methods commonly used to choose predictor variables. Here, we discuss both the test and prediction methods in two-level factorial designs and suggest a principle for choosing variables which is based on multiple inference thinking. By an example use demonstrated that the principle proposed leads to the use of fewer prediction variables than does the Akaike method.     

Generalized orthogonal contrast tests for homogeneity of ordered means

Several procedures have been proposed for testing equality of ordered means. The best-known of these is the likelihood-ratio test introduced by Bartholomew, which possesses generally superior power characteristics to those of its competitors. Difficulties in implementing this test have led to the development of alternative approaches, such as tests based on single and multiple contrasts. Some recent approaches have utilized approximations to the polyhedral cone defining the restricted parameter space, including those of Akkerboom (circular cone) and Mudholkar & McDermott (orthant). This article proposes a class of tests based on an improved orthant approximation to the polyhedral cone. These tests may be viewed as generalizations of the orthogonal contrast test proposed by Mukerjee, Robertson & Wright. Studies of the power functions of several competing tests indicate that the generalized orthogonal contrast tests are effective alternatives to the likelihood-ratio test, especially when the latter is difficult to implement.     

A family of IDMRL tests with unknown turning point

In this paper we propose a family of tests for exponentiality against the IDMRL alternative. Here we assume that the turning point or the proportion before the turning point is unknown. We derive the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics and obtain their asymptotic critical values based on Durbin's approximation method. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the proposed tests.     

Approximate variances for tolerance-distribution free ld50-estimators supplemented with abbott's correction

This paper is concerned with the 'tolerance-distribution free estimation of a LD50 (LC50) in a toxicity experiment with background mortality. Firstly the observed proportions mortality are adjusted by Abbott's formula. The LD50 is then obtained by inserting the adjusted proportions in the usual formula, but the variance formula is adapted to account for the variability in the background mortality.     

A theorem relating minque and unweighted means estimators of variance components in the one-way design

The unweighted means estimators of variance components in the one-way design are shown to equal the limit of the weighted MINQUE estimators as the ratio of the treatment variance weight to the error variance weight approaches infinity     

An Elementary Introduction to Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multinomial Models: Birch's Theorem and the Delta Method

A fairly complete introduction to the large sample theory of parametric multinomial models, suitable for a second-year graduate course in categorical data analysis, can be based on Birch's theorem (1964) and the delta method (Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland 1975). I present an elementary derivation of a version of Birch's theorem using the implicit function theorem from advanced calculus, which allows the presentation to be relatively self-contained. The use of the delta method in deriving asymptotic distributions is illustrated by Rao's (1973) result on the distribution of standardized residuals, which complements the presentation in Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland. The asymptotic theory is illustrated by two examples.     

A Bayesian approach for locating change points in a compound Poisson process with application to detecting DNA copy number variations

This work examines the problem of locating changes in the distribution of a Compound Poisson Process where the variables being summed are iid normal and the number of variable follows the Poisson distribution. A Bayesian approach is developed to identify the location of significant changes in any of the parameters of the distribution, and a sliding window algorithm is used to identify multiple change points. These results can be applied in any field of study where an interest in locating changes not only in the parameter of a normally distributed data set but also in the rate of their occurrence. It has direct application to the study of DNA copy number variations in cancer research, where it is known that the distances between the genes can affect their intensity level.     

Testing for mean and variance differences with samples from distributions that may be non-normal with unequal variances

The problem of comparing several samples to decide whether the means and/or variances are significantly different is considered. It is shown that with very non-normal distributions even a very robust test to compare the means has poor properties when the distributions have different variances, and therefore a new testing scheme is proposed. This starts by using an exact randomization test for any significant difference (in means or variances) between the samples. If a non-significant result is obtained then testing stops. Otherwise, an approximate randomization test for mean differences (but allowing for variance differences) is carried out, together with a bootstrap procedure to assess whether this test is reliable. A randomization version of Levene's test is also carried out for differences in variation between samples. The five possible conclusions are then that (i) there is no evidence of any differences, (ii) evidence for mean differences only, (iii) evidence for variance differences only, (iv) evidence for mean and variance differences, or (v) evidence for some indeterminate differences. A simulation experiment to assess the properties of the proposed scheme is described. From this it is concluded that the scheme is useful as a robust, conservative method for comparing samples in cases where they may be from very non-normal distributions.     

Inferences on regression coefficients in a regression model under heteroscedasticity and robustness with respect to departure from normality

In this paper we consider a simple linear regression model under heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. A statistical test for testing the regression coefficient is then derived by assuming normality for the random disturbances and by applying Welch's method. Some Monte Carlo studies are generated for assessing robustness of this test. By combining Tiku's robust procedure with the new test, a robust but more powerful test is developed.     

Weibull and generalised exponential overdispersion models with an application to ozone air pollution

We consider the problem of estimating the mean and variance of the time between occurrences of an event of interest (inter-occurrences times) where some forms of dependence between two consecutive time intervals are allowed. Two basic density functions are taken into account. They are the Weibull and the generalised exponential density functions. In order to capture the dependence between two consecutive inter-occurrences times, we assume that either the shape and/or the scale parameters of the two density functions are given by auto-regressive models. The expressions for the mean and variance of the inter-occurrences times are presented. The models are applied to the ozone data from two regions of Mexico City. The estimation of the parameters is performed using a Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.     

Quantitative comparisons between finitary posterior distributions and Bayesian posterior distributions

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to considering a finite horizon framework. However, assuming infinite exchangeability gives rise to fairly tractable a posteriori quantities, which is very attractive in applications. Hence, with a view to a reconciliation between these two aspects of the Bayesian way of reasoning, in this paper we provide quantitative comparisons between posterior distributions of finitary parameters and posterior distributions of allied parameters appearing in usual statistical models.