Detecting instants of jumps and estimating their intensity in the context of p derivatives with continuous or discrete data

In this article, we consider the ARD^(p)(1) process where D[0, 1] is the space of cadlag function and the pth derivative has a possible jump. One envisages to detect the position and intensity of jump in the context of p derivatives with continuous or discrete data. We also envisage jump for the (p + 1)th derivative. The main result allows to detect jump and to detect intensity of jump simultaneously. Asymptotic results are derived.     

Some remarks on experimental design for estimating the expectation of a stationary random process

For estimation of the mean of a stationary random process the variance-optimal choice of the observation points (the so called experimental design) is considered. For this discrete and continuous designs are introduced, some known results of process statistics are interpreted to experimental design and a proposal for simplification of the minimization problem is offered, moreover it is proved, that for monotone decreasing eovarianee functions a design, for which the points near the ends of the observation interval are more dense than in the middle, is better than the equidistant design.     

Use of several auxiliary variables in estimating the population mean in a two-occasion rotation pattern

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the problem of estimation of the population mean on the current (second) occasion in two-occasion successive sampling. Utilizing the readily available information on several auxiliary variables on both occasions and the information on the study variable from the previous occasion, an estimation procedure of the population mean on the current occasion has been proposed. Theoretical properties of the proposed estimator have been investigated. Optimum replacement policy to the proposed estimator has been discussed. The proposed estimator has been compared empirically with the sample mean estimator, when there is no matching and the optimum estimator which is a linear combination of the means of the matched and unmatched portions of the sample at the current occasion. Appropriate recommendations have been made for practical applications.     

A regression approach for estimating the parameters of the covariance function of a stationary spatial random process

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the covariance function of a stationary spatial random process. In spatial statistics, there are widely used parametric forms for the covariance functions, and various methods for estimating the parameters have been proposed in the literature. We develop a method for estimating the parameters of the covariance function that is based on a regression approach. Our method utilizes pairs of observations whose distances are closest to a value h>0$h>0$ which is chosen in a way that the estimated correlation at distance h is a predetermined value. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our procedure by simulation studies and an application to a water pH data set. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms all well-known least squares-based approaches to the variogram estimation and is comparable to the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the covariance function. We also show that under a mixing condition on the random field, the proposed estimator is consistent for standard one parameter models for stationary correlation functions.     

A family of efficient estimators of the finite population mean in simple random sampling

In this paper an estimator of the finite population mean using auxiliary information in sample surveys has been proposed. The bias and mean squared error are obtained under large sample approximation. It has been shown that the proposed estimator performs better than some recently published estimators.     

Statistical control charts for monitoring the mean of a stationary process

Recently statistical process control (SPC) methodologies have been developed to accommodate autocorrelated data. A primary method to deal with autocorrelated data is the use of residual charts. Although this methodology has the advantage that it can be applied to any autocorrelated data it needs time series modeling efforts. In addition for a X residual chart the detection capability is sometimes small compared to the X chart and EWMA chart. Zhang (1998) proposed the EWMAST chart which is constructed by charting the EWMA statistic for stationary processes to monitor the process mean. The performance of the EWMAST chart the X chart the X residual chart and other charts were compared in Zhang (1998). In this paper comparisons are made among the EWMAST chart the CUSUM residual chart and EWMA residual chart as well as the X residual chart and X chart via the average run length.     

Comparison of pivotals for confidence bounds and intervals for the mean of a stationary time series

We construct new pivotals to obtain confidence bounds and confidence intervals for the mean of a stationary process. These follow the approach based on estimating functions. The new pivotals are compared with the standard pivotal based on studentization. We study the first four cumulants of each of these pivotals and explain why the pivotals based on the estimating function approach result in better coverage probabilities. Some simulation results comparing these pivotals have been reported.     

A central limit theorem for the sample autocorrelations of a Lévy driven continuous time moving average process

In this article we consider Lévy driven continuous time moving average processes observed on a lattice, which are stationary time series. We show asymptotic normality of the sample mean, the sample autocovariances and the sample autocorrelations. A comparison with the classical setting of discrete moving average time series shows that in the last case a correction term should be added to the classical Bartlett formula that yields the asymptotic variance. An application to the asymptotic normality of the estimator of the Hurst exponent of fractional Lévy processes is also deduced from these results.     

Identifying the time of change in the mean of a two-stage nested process

Statistical process control charts are used to distinguish between common cause and special cause sources of variability. Once a control chart signals, a search to find the special cause should be initiated. If process analysts had knowledge of the change point, the search to find the special cause could be easily facilitated. Relevant literature contains an array of solutions to the change-point problem; however, these solutions are most appropriate when the samples are assumed to be independent. Unfortunately, the assumption of independence is often violated in practice. This work considers one such case of non-independence that frequently occurs in practice as a result of multi-stage sampling. Due to its commonality in practice, we assume a two-stage nested random model as the underlying process model and derive and evaluate a maximum-likelihood estimator for the change point in the fixed-effects component of this model. The estimator is applied to electron microscopy data obtained following a genuine control chart signal and from a real machining process where the important quality characteristic is the size of the surface grains produced by the machining operation. We conduct a simulation study to compare relative performances between the proposed change-point estimator and a commonly used alternative developed under the assumption of independent observations. The results suggest that both estimators are approximately unbiased; however, the proposed estimator yields smaller variance. The implication is that the proposed estimator is more precise, and thus, the quality of the estimator is improved relative to the alternative.     

A family of shrinkage estimators for the square of mean in normal distribution

This paper is devoted to the problem of estimating the square of population mean (μ²) in normal distribution when a prior estimate or guessed value σ₀ ² of the population variance σ² is available. We have suggested a family of shrinkage estimators , say, for μ² with its mean squared error formula. A condition is obtained in which the suggested estimator is more efficient than Srivastava et al’s (1980) estimator T_min. Numerical illustrations have been carried out to demonstrate the merits of the constructed estimator over T_min. It is observed that some of these estimators offer improvements over T_min particularly when the population is heterogeneous and σ² is in the vicinity of σ₀ ².     

Limit laws for the cumulative number of ties for the maximum in a random sequence

Let {_Xn,n?1}$\{X_n,n?1\}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, taking nonnegative integer values. An observation _Xn$X_n$ is a tie for the maximum if _Xn=max{_X1,…,_Xn-1}$X_n=\max \{X_1,\dots ,X_{n-1}\}$. In this paper, we obtain weak and strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for the cumulative number of ties for the maximum among the first n$n$ observations.     

A Sequential Multi-Hypothesis Test for the Mean Function of a Discrete-Time Gaussian Process

Abstract

A sequential multi-hypothesis test for the mean function of a discrete-time Gaussian process with known covariance kernel is developed. It is obtained by applying the Bechhofer-Kiefer-Sobel generalized sequential probability ratio test GSPRT, and its properties are studied analytically. Selected applications to i.i.d. normal random variables, observation in a time series AR(1) model, and Wiener processes are given.     

Application of a Markovian process to the calculation of mean time equilibrium in a genetic drift model

The most common phenomena in the evolution process are natural selection and genetic drift. In this article, we propose a probabilistic method to calculate the mean and variance time for random genetic drift equilibrium, measured as number of generations, based on Markov process and a complex probabilistic model. We studied the case of a constant, panmictic population of diploid organisms, which had a demonstrated lack of mutation, selection or migration for a determined autonomic locus, and two possible alleles, H and h. The calculations presented in this article were based on a Markov process. They explain how genetic and genotypic frequencies changed in different generations and how the heterozygote alleles became extinguished after many generations. This calculation could be used in more evolutionary applications. Finally, some simulations are presented to illustrate the theoretical calculations presented using different basal situations.     

A comparison of estimators for the mean in the inverse gaussian distribution with a known coefficient of variation

In this paper, we discuss an estimation problem of the mean in the inverse Gaussian distribution with a known coefficient of variation. Two types of linear estimators for the mean, the linear minimum variance unbiased estimator and the linear minimum mean squared error estimator, are constructed by using the squared error loss function and their properties are examined. It is observed that, for small samples the performance of the proposed estimators is better than that of the maximum likelihood estimator, when the coefficient of variation is large.     

A bias-reduced estimator for the mean of a heavy-tailed distribution with an infinite second moment

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator for the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked in a simulation study, by four of the most popular goodness-of-fit tests. The accuracy of the resulting confidence intervals is evaluated as well. We also investigate the finite sample behavior and compare our estimator with some versions of Peng's estimator of the mean (namely those based on Hill, t-Hill and Huisman et al. extreme value index estimators). Moreover, we discuss the robustness of the tail index estimators used in this paper. Finally, our estimation procedure is applied to the well-known Danish fire insurance claims data set, to provide confidence bounds for the means of weekly and monthly maximum losses over a period of 10 years.     

A test of fit for a continuous distribution based on the empirical convex conditional mean function

Gupta and Kirmani (2008 Gupta, R.C., Kirmani, S.N.U.A. (2008). Characterization based on convex conditional mean function. J. Stat. Plann Inference. 138:964–970.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) showed that the convex conditional mean function (CCMF) characterizes the distribution function completely. In this paper, we introduce a consistent estimator of CCMF and call it empirical convex conditional mean function (ECCMF). Then we construct a simple consistent test of fit based on the integrated squared difference between ECCMF and CCMF. The theoretical and asymptotic properties of the estimator ECCMF and the proposed test statistic are studied. The performance of the constructed test is investigated under different distributions using simulations.     

A variance shift model for detection of outliers in the linear mixed measurement error models

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we extend a variance shift model, previously considered in the linear mixed models, to the linear mixed measurement error models using the corrected likelihood of Nakamura (1990 Nakamura, T. (1990). Corrected score function for errors in variables models: methodology and application to generalized linear models. Biometrika 77:127–137.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This model assumes that a single outlier arises from an observation with inflated variance. We derive the score test and the analogue of the likelihood ratio test, to assess whether the ith observation has inflated variance. A parametric bootstrap procedure is implemented to obtain empirical distributions of the test statistics. Finally, results of a simulation study and an example of real data are presented to illustrate the performance of proposed tests.     

A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using data from a prevalent cohort study

Summary.  Cohort studies of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) provide useful information on the past pattern of HIV diagnoses, progression of the disease and use of antiretroviral therapy. We propose a new method for using individual data from an open prevalent cohort study to estimate the incidence of HIV, by jointly modelling the HIV diagnosis, the inclusion in the cohort and the progression of the disease in a Markov model framework. The estimation procedure involves the construction of a likelihood function which takes into account the probability of observing the total number of subjects who are enrolled in the cohort and the probabilities of passage through the stages of disease for each observed subject conditionally on being included in the cohort. The estimator of the HIV infection rate is defined as the function which maximizes a penalized likelihood, and the solution of this maximization problem is approximated on a basis of cubic M -splines. The method is illustrated by using cohort data from a hospital-based surveillance system of HIV infection in Aquitaine, a region of south-western France. A simulation study is performed to study the ability of the model to reconstruct the incidence of HIV from prevalent cohort data.