Sur l'estimation du risque encouru en reconstruisant une forme aléatoire

The problem of estimating the risk corresponding to the reconstruction of a random pattern is reviewed. It is shown that for a particular but important model, the problem is reduced to the estimation of two parameters closely related to those appearing in a two-state Markov chain, which is of independent interest. The estimation of the Markov chain's parameters is studied from the decision-theoretic point of view. Estimators which are better than others previously considered are obtained and adapted to the estimation of the corresponding risk. Examples are are analyzed; even if a very empirical method is used to give values to the parameters of an a priorilaw, some good estimators of the risk are obtained.     

E-Bayesian estimation and its E-posterior risk of the exponential distribution parameter based on complete and type I censored samples

Abstract

This article studies E-Bayesian estimation and its E-posterior risk, for failure rate derived from exponential distribution, in the case of the two hyper parameters. In order to measure the estimated risk, the definition of E-posterior risk (expected posterior risk) is proposed based on the definition of E-Bayesian estimation. Moreover, under the different prior distributions of hyper parameters, the formulas of E-Bayesian estimation and formulas of E-posterior risk are given respectively, these estimations are derived based on a conjugate prior distribution for the unknown parameter under the squared error loss function. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed methods of estimation and a real data set have been analyzed for illustrative purposes, results are compared on the basis of E-posterior risk.     

Pricing power options with a generalized jump diffusion

In this article, the valuation of power option is investigated when the dynamic of the stock price is governed by a generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. The systematic risk is characterized by the diffusion part, and the non systematic risk is characterized by the pure jump process. The jumps are described by a generalized renewal process with generalized jump amplitude. By introducing NASDAQ Index Model, their risk premium is identified respectively. A risk-neutral measure is identified by employing Esscher transform with two families of parameters, which represent the two parts risk premium. In this article, the non systematic risk premium is considered, based on which the price of power option is studied under the generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. In the case of a special renewal process with log double exponential jump amplitude, the accurate expressions for the Esscher parameters and the pricing formula are provided. By numerical simulation, the influence of the non systematic risk’s price and the index of the power options on the price of the option is depicted.     

Procedure for the selection of CSP-M one level skip-lot sampling inspection plans that have a single-sampling plan with acceptance number zero as the reference plan

This paper presents a procedure for the selection of CSP-M one-level skip-lot sampling plans, designated as CSP-MSkSP, that have a single-sampling plan with acceptance number zero as the reference plan. The parameters of the plan are determined when two points on the operating characteristic curve are specified, the two points being (p1,) and (p2,), where p1 is the acceptable quality level, is the producer's risk, p2 is the limiting quality level and is the consumer's risk.     

基于熵最大原则的GPD估计与中国股市极值风险测度

POT极值模型参数的准确估计是计算金融资产回报市场风险的关键。根据最大化熵原则（POME）得到POT模型中GPD参数估计方程组,通过回归模型的可决系数法选取阈值,最后将其应用到中国两个时段股市金融风险测度的实证研究中。结果表明：第1、2时段,最优阈值分别为0．01799、0．01801,γ、ξ和β的估计值分别为18．53467、0．14871、0．00802和2．93172、0．03649、0．01258,并得到不同显著性水平下的VaR和ES值,为GPD参数估计找到了一个更科学有效的方法,更为准确计算金融资产回报市场风险提供了新思路,同时也测算了本次国际金融危机对中国股市风险的影响。     

Estimation of the smaller and larger of two uniform scale parameters

Assume independent random samples are drawn from two populations which are uniformly distributed with unknown scale parameters. The problem is to estimate the minimum and the maximum of the two unknown scales. In this paper, several simple estimators are proposed which are better than the natural estimators in terms of standardized bias, risk under squared error loss and the Pitman nearness criterion.     

On the Bayesian inference of Kumaraswamy distributions based on censored samples

In this article we discuss Bayesian estimation of Kumaraswamy distributions based on three different types of censored samples. We obtain Bayes estimates of the model parameters using two different types of loss functions (LINEX and Quadratic) under each censoring scheme (left censoring, singly type-II censoring, and doubly type-II censoring) using Monte Carlo simulation study with posterior risk plots for each different choices of the model parameters. Also, detailed discussion regarding elicitation of the hyperparameters under the dependent prior setup is discussed. If one of the shape parameters is known then closed form expressions of the Bayes estimates corresponding to posterior risk under both the loss functions are available. To provide the efficacy of the proposed method, a simulation study is conducted and the performance of the estimation is quite interesting. For illustrative purpose, real-life data are considered.     

Bounded risk estimation of a linear combination of location parameters in negative exponential distributions via three-stage sampling

The paper deals with the problem of bounded risk point estimation for a linear combination of location parameters of two negative exponential distributions. Isogai and Futschik considered the situation when the location and scale parameters are all unknown. They proposed purely sequential procedures and gave second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. In this paper we propose three-stage procedures and derive second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. Further, we compare the results with those from previous work.     

Acceptance sampling plan based on an exponentially weighted moving average statistic with the yield index for autocorrelation between polynomial profiles

Acceptance sampling plans based on process yield indices provide a proven resource for the lot-sentencing problem when the required fraction defective is very low. In this study, a new sampling plan based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model with yield index for lot sentencing for autocorrelation between polynomial profiles is proposed. The advantage of the EWMA statistic is the accumulation of quality history from previous lots. In addition, the number of profiles required for lot sentencing is more economical than in the traditional single sampling plan. Considering the acceptable quality level (AQL) at the producer's risk and the lot tolerance percent defective (LTPD) at the consumer's risk, we proposed a new search algorithm to determine the optimal plan parameters. The plan parameters are tabulated for various combinations of the smoothing constant of the EWMA statistic, AQL, LTPD, and two risks. A comparison study and two numerical examples are provided to show the applicability of the proposed sampling plan.     

RISK ANALYSIS IN MORE THAN ONE DIMENSION

The concept of risk function is extended to the situation where the “life” of the specimen is represented by a vector of dimension greater than one. Model-building, estimation of parameters and goodness of fit are discussed. The model is applied to fatigue failure of reinforced concrete beams where two separate indicators of damage are monitored.     

Shrinkage Estimators of Intercept Parameters of Two Simple Regression Models with Suspected Equal Slopes

Estimators of the intercept parameter of a simple linear regression model involves the slope estimator. In this article, we consider the estimation of the intercept parameters of two linear regression models with normal errors, when it is a priori suspected that the two regression lines are parallel, but in doubt. We also introduce a coefficient of distrust as a measure of degree of lack of trust on the uncertain prior information regarding the equality of two slopes. Three different estimators of the intercept parameters are defined by using the sample data, the non sample uncertain prior information, an appropriate test statistic, and the coefficient of distrust. The relative performances of the unrestricted, shrinkage restricted and shrinkage preliminary test estimators are investigated based on the analyses of the bias and risk functions under quadratic loss. If the prior information is precise and the coefficient of distrust is small, the shrinkage preliminary test estimator overperforms the other estimators. An example based on a medical study is used to illustrate the method.     

Bayes estimation of a langevin mean direction

A Langevin distribution with two parameters (mean direction and concentration parameter) has been extensively used for modeling and analyzing problems related to directional data. In this article, we examine the estimation problem for the mean direction. Bayes estimators are derived with respect to a conjugate as well as the Jeffreys’ priors. Further in case of unknown concentration parameter, other priors are also chosen. An extensive analysis of risk behavior of Bayes estimators is carried out with the help of simulations.     

Approximate variance formulas and asymptotic joint sampling distributions of standardized risk ratios in the presence of competing risks in cohort studies

The present paper is concerned with some results in cohort studies, in which the individuals in two study population are exposed simultaneously to several risks of death, which compete for their lives.

The morality experience of individuals in the two study populations is compared with respect to the morality experience of individuals in a well-defined and fixed population called the standard population.

Under some reasonable assumptions, not only simple variance formulas are-developed for the standardized risk ratio statistics (S[Rcirc]R_i) but also their joint asymptotic sampling distribution. It is demonstrated that these SRcirc;R_i's have asymptotically a multivariate normal distribtion corresponding to any given number of competing risks of death, These results are utilized to construct Scheffé-type and Sidak-type simultaneous confidence intervals for the SRR_i parameters which hold regardless of any covariance structure among the competing risks of death. The corresponding results for the cause-specific SMR and the externally standardized risk ratio parameters follow as special cases.

The present paper generalizes the available results in the literature in two directions, namely, to obtain simple variance formulas for the S[Rcirc]R_i, statistics and to treat the situation in the presence of competing risks to which individuals in a study are simultaneously exposed.

An empirical evaluation of these results is discussed in the last section utilizing some real cohort data from two recent occupational epidemiologic cohort studies.     

The exponentiated Fréchet regression: an alternative model for actuarial modelling purposes

ABSTRACT

In this paper we introduce the exponentiated Fréchet regression for modelling positive responses having a long-tailed distribution in a regression model, which are common in actuarial statistics. We propose two parameterizations each of which links the regression parameters with the explanatory variables. We then discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters both theoretically and empirically. In order to meet the needs of an actuary, closed-form expressions for certain risk measures for the exponentiated Fréchet distribution are also derived. We employ the proposed model to a motorcycle claim size data set.     

Estimating the Parameters of Stochastic Volatility Models Using Option Price Data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.     

Economic design of quick switching sampling system for assuring Weibull distributed mean life

In this paper, we propose the quick switching sampling system for assuring mean life of a product under time truncated life test where the lifetime of the product follows the Weibull distribution and the mean life is considered as the quality of the product. The optimal parameters of the proposed system are determined using two points on the operating characteristic curve approach for various combinations of consumer's risk and ratio of true mean life time and specified life time. Tables are constructed to determine the optimal parameters for specified acceptable quality level and limiting quality level along with the corresponding probabilities of acceptance. The proposed system is compared with other existing sampling plans under Weibull lifetime model. In addition, an economical design of the proposed system is also discussed.     

Risk efficient estimation of fully dependent random coefficient autoregressive models of general order

We consider a stochastic dynamic model with autoregressive progression. The drift coefficients of the autoregressive model are random where the randomness in the coefficients can have any dependence structure. We propose a two-step sequential estimator and study the asymptotic behavior of few important properties. Paradigm of sequential estimation has its own advantage in reducing sample size and plugging estimates of nuisance parameters while inferring about the main parameters. Our proposed estimator is asymptotically optimal as the predictive risk of the proposed estimator attains the risk of the oracle that assumes known nuisance parameters. Extensive simulation confirms our results.     

A New Design on Attributes Single Sampling Plans

In this article, two new approaches are introduced to design attributes single plans, and the corresponding models are constructed separately. For Approach I, an algorithm is proposed to design sampling plans by setting a goal function to fulfill the two-point conditions on the operating characteristic curve. For Approach II, the plan parameters are solved by a nonlinear optimization model which minimizes the integration of the probability of acceptance in the interval from the producer's risk quality to the consumer's risk quality. Then numerical examples and discussions based on numerical computation results are given to illustrate the approaches, and tables of the designed plans under various conditions are provided. Moreover, a fact is given to be proved that there is a relation between the conventional design and the new approaches.     

Control chart for monitoring the Weibull shape parameter under two competing risks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a control chart to monitor the Weibull shape parameter where the observations are censored due to competing risks. We assume that the failure occurs due to two competing risks that are independent and follow Weibull distribution with different shape and scale parameters. The control charts are proposed to monitor one or both of the shape parameters of competing risk distributions and established based on the conditional expected values. The proposed control chart for both shape parameters is used in certain situations and allows to monitor both shape parameters in only one chart. The control limits depend on the sample size, number of failures due to each risk and the desired stable average run length (ARL). We also consider the estimation problem of the target parameters when the Phase I sample is incomplete. We assumed that some of the products that fail during the life testing have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed to estimate the parameters. For both cases, with and without masking, the behaviour of ARLs of charts is studied through the numerical methods. The influence of masking on the performance of proposed charts is also studied through a simulation study. An example illustrates the applicability of the proposed charts.     

Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data

Summary.  Estimates of the number of prevalent human immunodeficiency virus infections are used in England and Wales to monitor development of the human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic and for planning purposes. The population is split into risk groups, and estimates of risk group size and of risk group prevalence and diagnosis rates are combined to derive estimates of the number of undiagnosed infections and of the overall number of infected individuals. In traditional approaches, each risk group size, prevalence or diagnosis rate parameter must be informed by just one summary statistic. Yet a rich array of surveillance and other data is available, providing information on parameters and on functions of parameters, and raising the possibility of inconsistency between sources of evidence in some parts of the parameter space. We develop a Bayesian framework for synthesis of surveillance and other information, implemented through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The sources of data are found to be inconsistent under their accepted interpretation, but the inconsistencies can be resolved by introducing additional 'bias adjustment' parameters. The best-fitting model incorporates a hierarchical structure to spread information more evenly over the parameter space. We suggest that multiparameter evidence synthesis opens new avenues in epidemiology based on the coherent summary of available data, assessment of consistency and bias modelling.