The Effects of Technical Change on Skill Requirements: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. This essay offers an empirical analysis of the effects of technical change on skill. Firstly, with the increasing diffusion of more and more mechanization and, in this decade, with the advent of microelectronics, this theme has been widely debated both in theory and in empirical analyses. These latter are usually based on a measurement of skill in terms of the parameters adopted in the job evaluation. My critique to that approach is both on the job evaluation criteria adopted, and on the unclear distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change on labour requirements. The following analysis will show the importance of that distinction in interpreting data. The case study is the production of ceramic tiles in Italy. The analysis is articulated in three parts. The first discusses an indicator of technical level of ceramic tile production. This indicator refers to the ‘scale of mechanization’ proposed by Bright in 1958. The oldest and the most up-to-date techniques in use in the early 1980's are compared with regard both to the level of mechanization and to the number of workers required at each task at factory level. This analysis is the premiss for the distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change. This—together with the discussion of a measurement of skill based on job content—is examined in the second part. The conclusion of the case study and a critical analysis of the main contributions on this topic are in the third part.     

The economic evaluation of time: Organizational causes and individual consequences

People acquire ways of thinking about time partly in and from work organizations, where the control and measurement of time use is a prominent feature of modern management—an inevitable consequence of employees selling their time for money. In this paper, we theorize about the role organizational practices play in promoting an economic evaluation of time and time use—where time is thought of primarily in monetary terms and viewed as a scarce resource that should be used as efficiently as possible. While people usually make decisions about time and money differently, we argue that management practices that make the connection between time and money salient can heighten the economic evaluation of time. We consider both the organizational causes of economic evaluation as well as its personal and societal consequences.     

考虑微观结构噪声与测量误差的波动率预测

以测量误差的分布理论为基础，本文将微观结构噪声的影响引入到测量误差的方差中，构建了包含微观结构噪声影响的HARQ-N模型。使用蒙特卡洛模拟与中国股市的高频数据对HAR、HARQ、HARQ-N模型与HAR-RV-N-CJ模型的估计和预测进行了比较，研究发现，HARQ模型和HARQ-N模型的测量误差修正项对波动率的影响系数统计显著为负，HARQ-N模型的测量误差项影响系数远大于HARQ模型，更大程度地减弱当期微观结构噪声和测量误差的影响。并且，考虑微观结构噪声和测量误差的HARQ-N模型样本内和样本外预测效果在统计上显著优于HAR模型、HARQ模型与HAR-RV-N-CJ模型。     

多层次结构DEA模型及其应用

在评价实践中,评价者通常倾向采用一组指标或指标体系对DMUs展开相对全面的评价,不同层次指标的重要性也往往不同。然而,标准DEA模型在DMUs有限条件下经常会面临无法直接处理过多的评价指标,也无法直接处理多层次指标的问题。本文从DEA模型中的序结构和测度出发,构建了符合多层次指标体系特点,能相对全面地体现评价者价值导向,且具有合理区分能力的多层次结构DEA模型,并以15个机构基础研究的投入-产出评价为例展开了应用分析。     

基于一致性度量的概率模糊语言多属性群决策方法

人们通常习惯用语言术语来表达他们的偏好，因此概率型语言术语集（Probabilistic Linguistic Term Set，PLTS）在决策过程中有着十分重要的作用。目前PLTS的研究刚刚起步，有关PLTS的相关研究没有关注到一致性度量的问题，对于PLTS的多属性群决策方法有待进一步研究。首先，给出了一种新的PLTS的集结方法，并且在已有的PLTS可能度公式的基础上，构建了PLTS的相似度量方法，在此基础上，进一步提出了基于PLTS一致性度量的多属性群决策方法。该方法在各决策者权重未知的情况下，考虑到各决策者之间的一致性。首先，定义PLTS的一致性度量公式，确定决策者权重；并根据PLTS的集结方法，集结各决策者的评价信息；最后，利用可能度公式对PLTS进行排序。通过案例分析验证了该方法的可行性和优越性。     

A multicriteria decision analysis model for faculty evaluation

In the context of increasing demands for social and financial accountability of universities, the required implementation of transparent faculty evaluation systems constitutes a challenge and an opportunity for universities strategically aligning the activity of academic staff with the university goals. However, despite growing interest in the performance appraisal of faculty, only a few reported studies propose models that cover the full range of academic activities and the models in use are typically based on ad hoc scoring systems that lack theoretical soundness. This article approaches faculty evaluation from an innovative comprehensive perspective. Based on the concepts and methods of multiple criteria value measurement, it proposes a new faculty evaluation model that addresses the whole range of academic activities and can be applied within and across distinct scientific areas, while respecting their specificities. Constructed through a socio-technical process, the model was designed for and adopted by the Instituto Superior Técnico, the engineering school of the Technical University of Lisbon. The model has a two-level hierarchical additive structure, with top-level evaluation areas specified by second-level evaluation criteria. A bottom non-additive third level accounts for the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of academic activity related to each evaluation criterion. The model allows (a) the comparison of the performance of academic staff with performance targets reflecting the strategic policy concerns of university management; (b) the definition of the multicriteria value profile of each faculty member at the top level of the evaluation areas; (c) the computation of an overall value score for each faculty member, through an optimisation procedure that makes use of a flexible system of weights and (d) the assignment of faculty members to rating categories.     

对企业生产缓冲的分析与评价

本文划分了生产缓冲的类型,提出并叙述了生产缓冲的诸要素;建立了生产缓冲的木桶理论,认为生产缓冲诸要素的水平应相互配比协调;探讨了生产缓冲的经济评价,最后讨论了生产缓冲度的层次分析与测评。     

Models of the future

Existing world models are criticized for the omission of feedback effects. Modifications to existing models are considered implausible, and a very simple structure representing the system by stocks and flows of energy is proposed. The planning implications of such simple models are explored in terms of risk evaluation. The analysis of a possible risk situation yields a dimensionless quantity relating capital investment, depletion rate, investment fraction and efficiency. This quantity is shown to be critical in determining the existence of discontinuities in the growth curve, independent of the desired level of growth.     

Productivity drift in extended learning curves

The pattern of changes in the Extended Learning Curves representing the performance of 114 assembly workers in an electronics firm is examined in terms of changes in productivity drift over long periods of time. It is shown that 2 types of discontinuities can occur. The first consists of a temporary levelling off in productivity followed by a recovery to new higher levels of productivity; the second has a sustained period of negative productivity drift. A number of work facets are statistically tested as possible causes of these patterns of productivity drift, but, the only significant relationship (at P ≤ 0.05 level) is with length of service in job. Some evidence is presented to show that conventional work measurement methods are not effective in terms of assessing the true work output of experienced workers since such workers are able to beat the system by claiming those allowances which are most difficult to cross-check.     

An integrated approach to evaluation and planning of best practices

This paper develops a new integrated evaluation and planning approach for implementing a given set of best practices in a prioritized and phased manner. The best practices are implemented for achieving lower-level business unit objectives and higher-level strategic goals of an organization. With a multiattribute decision making algorithm under the balanced scorecard (BSC) framework, a new evaluation model is developed to effectively measure the relationship between lower-level objectives and higher-level goals, and to give each best practice a relative priority value. A new adjustment method is also developed to address potential biases in the self-assessment process at the business unit level. The evaluation model enables the prioritization and implementation planning of best practices in terms of their importance and achievability from the viewpoints of the organization, four BSC strategic perspectives, individual business units, and the overall implementation planning zone. An empirical study is conducted to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated evaluation and planning approach.     

How to Use Technical Terms in Ads? An FCB Grid Perspective

Research on the optimal use of technical terms in advertising can help sponsors effectively communicate complex technical concepts to consumers. This study therefore examined how technical terms, and the extent to which they are explained, influence advertising effectiveness for four product types in the FCB grid. The sample comprised 436 college students. The analytical results of this study indicate that using two technical terms together with detailed explanation of the terms improves consumer attitudes towards the ad and consumer evaluation of the advertised product for thinking (products meeting consumer utilitarian needs) and high involvement products. For thinking and low involvement products, using two technical terms together with detailed/rough explanation improves consumer attitudes towards the ad and consumer evaluation of the advertised product. Moreover, using two unexplained technical terms improves consumer attitudes towards the ad for feeling (those providing consumer gratification, social acceptance and sensory satisfaction) and high involvement products. Using no technical terms improves consumer attitudes towards the ad for feeling and low involvement products. Finally, theoretical and managerial implications and future research directions are discussed.     

Risk Prevention and Policy-Making in Automatic Systems

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.     

The use of OWA operator weights for cross-efficiency aggregation

Cross-efficiency evaluation is an effective way of ranking decision making units (DMUs) in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Existing approaches for cross-efficiency evaluation are mainly focused on the calculation of cross-efficiency matrix, but pay little attention to the aggregation of the efficiencies in the cross-efficiency matrix. The most widely used approach is to aggregate the efficiencies in each row or column in the cross-efficiency matrix with equal weights into an average cross-efficiency score for each DMU and view it as the overall performance measurement of the DMU. This paper focuses on the aggregation process of the efficiencies in the cross-efficiency matrix and proposes the use of ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator weights for cross-efficiency aggregation. The use of OWA operator weights for cross-efficiency aggregation allows the decision maker (DM)’s optimism level towards the best relative efficiencies, characterized by an orness degree, to be taken into consideration in the final overall efficiency assessment and particularly in the selection of the best DMU.     

A Framework for the Analysis of Error in Conjunctive,Multi-Criteria,Satisficing Decision Processes*

This paper examines the impact of certain types of error on ad hoc, unstructured decision making that incorporates a satisficing strategy in a multi-criteria context using the conjunctive rule. The impacts of error in evaluation and of error in minimal or satisficing levels are systematically modelled for each of the decision criteria. Error functions, analytical expressions, and procedures are developed to obtain information such as the likelihood of correct decision making in the presence of evaluation and minimal criteria level error. These are applied to a specific research design, which is then analyzed. This highlights certain features of decision making in a satisficing context, such as the importance of keeping the number of decision criteria to a minimum. The results yield various insights, some of which confirm information obtained from previous analyses. A major advantage of the framework presented is that it can provide quantitative measurements which support ideas previously couched in qualitative terms only. Although the framework is applied in the context of decision making that uses the conjunctive rule in the case of multiple criteria, other satisficing strategies can be accommodated as well.     

基于(k,y)空间技术分解的企业投资效率评价

目前国内外企业层次上综合投资效率评价的研究还是一个未探索的领域,现有企业业绩评价方法没有将投资效率列为评价的内容,对企业发展能力的评价呈现出明显的不合理。本文在相关领域投资效率评价方法以及对投资效率内涵界定的基础上,总结投资效率评价基本出发点,利用技术效率评价在(k,y)空间的投影来建立企业层次上综合投资效率的评价方法。在(k,y)空间内,可以识别并分解企业资产技术和运营效率,能够有效跟踪企业资产及相应运营效率的变化。在此基础上建立的投资效率评价指标融合了目前宏观经济和微观具体项目投资效率评价方法,反映的是企业投资活动对其经营效率的带动作用,能够准确评价企业投资效率的真实业绩。     

Employee Well‐being and the HRM–Organizational Performance Relationship: A Review of Quantitative Studies

There is a lack of consensus on the role of employee well‐being in the human resource management–organizational performance relationship. This review examines which of the competing perspectives –‘mutual gains’ or ‘conflicting outcomes’– is more appropriate for describing this role of employee well‐being. In addition, this review examines whether study attributes such as the measurement of key variables, the level of analysis and the study design affect a study's outcomes. The review covers 36 quantitative studies published from 1995 to May 2010. Employee well‐being is described here using three dimensions: happiness, health and relationship. The main findings are that employee well‐being in terms of happiness and relationship is congruent with organizational performance (mutual gains perspective), but that health‐related well‐being appears to function as a conflicting outcome. Directions for future research and theoretical development are suggested.     

基于神经网络的备件库存风险级别预测

本文提出了一种基于神经网络的备件库存风险级别分类方法,在对备件的供货来源、重要性、易损程度、标准化程度、供货周期等指标进行模糊评价的基础上,建立了多层前向神经网络模型,利用BP训练算法,确定神经网络模型的连接权系数。将某测井服务公司100种备件的历史数据作为样本,进行了BP训练仿真,并利用模型预测了该公司60种备件的库存风险级别,预测结果与实际结果的符合率为84%。     

What Makes Performance-Related Pay Schemes Work? Finnish Evidence

We analyze how features of performance-related pay (PRP) schemes affect their perceived motivational effects using a Finnish survey for upper white-collar employees from 1999. The results show that the following features are important for a successful PRP scheme: (i) the employees have to feel they are able to affect the outcomes; (ii) the organizational level of the performance measurement should be close to the employee: individual and team level performance measurement increase the probability that the scheme is perceived to be motivating; (iii) employees should be familiar with the performance measures; (iv) the level of payments should be high enough and rewards frequent enough. Levels below the median do not generate positive effects; (v) employees should participate in the design of the PRP scheme.