Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

System dynamics: Portraying bounded rationality

This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie School in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication with other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon's ‘principle of bounded rationality’ which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester's ‘Market Growth Model’ is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model formulation reveals decision functions involving simple rules of thumb and limited information content. Finally, there is a discussion of the implications of Carnegie philosophy for system dynamics as it affects communication, model structuring, model analysis and future research.     

Risk analysis of estimates for cost of quality in supply chain: a case study

Risk analysis for Cost of Quality (CoQ) in supply chain has not been adequately researched as evidenced in the literature. This paper attempts to analyse risk involved in estimating elements of CoQ in the internal supply chain of an integrated aluminium manufacturing company. We have applied grounded theory methodology on accounting codes of the case company primarily to bring out various elements of CoQ in its internal supply chain. They are categorized as ‘cost of prevention’, ‘cost of defective inputs’, ‘cost of defect in process’, and ‘cost of defect in output’. These elements are considered to be risky due to availability of partial information in past records of accounts while applying grounded theory methodology. In order to estimate the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes of various categories CoQ in the supply chain, Monte Carlo simulation has been used. The results have facilitated decision makers in strategic total quality management.     

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

The estimation of the costs of a product or project and the decisions based on these forecasts are subject to much uncertainty relating to factors like unknown future developments. This has been addressed repeatedly in research studies focusing on different aspects of uncertainty; unfortunately, this interest has not yet been adopted in practice. One reason can be found in the inadequate representation of uncertainty. This paper introduces an experiment, which engages different approaches to displaying cost forecasting information to gauge the consideration of uncertainty in the subsequent decision-making process. Three different approaches of displaying cost-forecasting information including the uncertainty involved in the data were tested, namely a three point trend forecast, a bar chart, and a FAN-diagram. Furthermore, the effects of using different levels of contextual information about the decision problem were examined. The results show that decision makers tend to simplify the level of uncertainty from a possible range of future outcomes to the limited form of a point estimate. Furthermore, the contextual information made the participants more aware of uncertainty. In addition, the fan-diagram prompted 75.0% of the participants to consider uncertainty even if they had not used this type of diagram before; it was therefore identified as the most suitable method of graphical information display for encouraging decision makers to consider the uncertainty in cost forecasting.     

On Bayesian composite forecasting

Often decision makers have several forecasts of an uncertain and operationally relevant random variable. A rich literature now exists which argues that in this situation the decision maker should consider forming a forecast as a weighted average of each of the individual forecasts. In this paper, composite forecasting is discussed in a Bayesian context. The ability of the user to control the impact of the data on his composite weights is illustrated by an example using expert opinion forecasts of US hog prices.     

不做“双面人”! 如何让女高管的“理智”与“情感”兼容?

在2011年上映的影片《我的美女老板》中,女主角景田饰演了一个"双面人",在工作中戴着男性"面具"的公司高管"艾玛"和生活中率性可爱的"小爱",她不停在两种角色中转换,这也是当下部分女性高管生存状态的一个缩影。     

An appreciation of alternative sales forecasting models: Recent techniques based on historical data

The subject of statistical sales forecasting has recently been brought to prominence as a major area of management decision-making by the growth of a substantive literature and the establishment of several research groups to investigate the building of forecasting models. Whilst a lot of attention has been focused on the relatively newer disciplines of technological forecasting and multiple-equation model building of macro-economic systems, statistical sales forecasting methods have also been subject to considerable development and a number of radically new techniques have emerged. The authors believe that it is timely to review the current ‘state of the art’ of sales forecasting methodology. This study examines a wide range of models in use although it is not intended as a comprehensive guide.     

多专家判断的模糊偏好信息集结规划方法

本文给出了一种群决策中通过专家判断矩阵集结专家判断信息的方法。在考虑各专家具有不同强度的偏好效用和容许部分专家给出不完整信息的情况下,将专家判断信息集结转化为一类模糊规划问题,通过最大化群组满意度获得最终的群决策结果。最后,本文通过一个算例说明该方法的可行性及有效性。     

When does part-time employment allow managers with family responsibilities to stay on the career track? A vignette study among German managers

The present study examines the specific conditions under which part-time (PT) arrangements in managerial jobs allow parents with childcare responsibilities to stay on the career track. By integrating economic signaling theory and gender role congruity theory, a vignette study among German managers revealed that substantial PT hours, flexible working schedules, and flexible childcare arrangements positively influence decision makers’ personal promotion decisions. Further, we found a significant fatherhood bias with male PT managers receiving less favorable promotion decisions than female PT managers. The study further reveals that decision makers’ evaluations of managers’ levels of advancement motivation mediate several significant relationships. The paper discusses practical impactions and future research directions.     

Evaluating the performance capability of a multi-organization system

A model for evaluating the performance capability of a multi-organization system is introduced. The model is based on hierarchical-modular decomposition of the components which determine system performance up to the level where they can be measured quantitatively, or at least qualitatively, in an objective or subjective manner. Performance measures are obtained by incorporating these components into multi-attribute evaluation functions. The model provides decision makers with a tool for quantitative assessment of performance, identification of bottlenecks, a framework for ‘what-if’ simulation and a mean for conflict resolution during planning. Application of the model to the Israeli Water Resources Development System provides an illustrative example.     

A bilevel programming problem with maximization of a supermodular function in the lower level

In bilevel programming there are two decision makers, the leader and the follower, who act in a hierarchy. In this paper we deal with a bilevel problem where the follower maximizes a supermodular function. The payoff for the leader is given by the weighted set that is chosen by the follower. To increase his payoff the leader can increase the supermodular function of the follower by a modular one, thus influencing the follower’s decision, but he has to pay a penalty for this. We want to find an optimum strategy for the leader. This is a bilevel programming problem with continuous variables in the upper level and a parametric supermodular maximization problem in the lower level. We analyze the structure of the bilevel problem. This we use to provide an equivalent one-level combinatorial problem. Finally, we investigate the properties of the new problem.     

The Reverse Supply Chain Planning Matrix: A Classification Scheme for Planning Problems in Reverse Logistics

This paper presents a conceptual planning framework for reverse supply chain operations based on an extensive literature review and industry expertise. Such a holistic scheme for classification of planning tasks is necessary as the intensification of research on reverse logistics and closed‐loop supply chains in recent years has raised a number of planning problems that differ from those of solely forward‐oriented supply chains. Up to now, a common and comprehensive definition of relevant planning problems along the reverse chain has not existed. Thus, a thorough understanding of the interdependence between these elements is missing. This paper aims to systematically identify planning problems, which are assigned to different planning horizons and distinct process stages of product recovery. The result is a classification scheme, called a ‘Reverse Supply Chain Planning Matrix’ (RSCPM), which categorizes planning problems and shows their interrelation in recovery operations. It serves both academia and practitioners as a holistic overview for planning and decision tasks. Moreover, decision‐makers are supported in identifying the relevant variables in reverse supply chains and in revealing the consequences of one decision regarding other parameters of the system. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the RSCPM is the first attempt to comprehensively structure the field of reverse supply chain research by identifying, defining and interconnecting planning problems within an integrated framework, as is common in the forward case.     

A framework for the strategic management of future tyre technology

Strategically managing technology faces one major problem: technology planners and managers who mistake ‘R & D management’ for ‘strategic technology management’. In globally competitive markets, survival and growth of tyre companies will increasingly depend upon the ability to manage technological resources strategically. This article proposes a process model which views the strategic management of technology as ‘techno-business management’, where technology and business strategy, planning and implementation can be facilitated by the use of portfolio frameworks and technology forecasting techniques in analysing and addressing the key strategic management areas of techno-business strategy development and strategy implementation.     

Evidence‐based Management in Practice: Opening up the Decision Process,Decision‐maker and Context

Evidence‐based management (EBM) has been subject to a number of persuasive critiques in recent years. Concerns have been raised that: EBM over‐privileges rationality as a basis for decision‐making; ‘scientific’ evidence is insufficient and incomplete as a basis for management practice; understanding of how EBM actually plays out in practice is limited; and, although ideas were originally taken from evidence‐based medicine, individual‐situated expertise has been forgotten in the transfer. To address these concerns, the authors adopted an approach of ‘opening up’ the decision process, the decision‐maker and the context (Langley et al. ( 1995 ). ‘Opening up decision making: the view from the black stool’, Organization Science, 6, pp. 260–279). The empirical investigation focuses on an EBM decision process involving an operations management problem in a hospital emergency department in Australia. Based on interview and archival research, it describes how an EBM decision process was enacted by a physician manager. It identifies the role of ‘fit’ between the decision‐maker and the organizational context in enabling an evidence‐based process and develops insights for EBM theory and practice.     

International market selection strategies selected by ‘micro’ and ‘small’ firms

Policy-makers and practitioners are seeking to promote the development of established firms. This paper suggests they may need to target customized export programmes to the specific situational demands of established ‘micro’ and ‘small’ firms. The following broad research question is explored: are there differences between ‘micro’ and ‘small’ firms with regard to the decision to sell goods or services abroad? In 1990/91, survey responses were gathered from 621 independent businesses located in Great Britain. In 1997, a follow-on telephone survey was conducted with 150 surviving firms. This survey gathered information on the propensity to export goods or services abroad and the mode of export behaviour reported by established ‘micro’ as well as ‘small’ firms. The performance of exporting and non-exporting firms was also compared. Implications for policy-makers, practitioners and researchers are highlighted.     

“I feel and think,therefore I am”: An Affect-Cognitive Theory of management decisions

I propose an Affect-Cognitive Theory to comprehensively understand how decisions occur in organizations. To this aim, I first review the assumptions of sensemaking and decision-making streams of research, especially the influence of bounded rationality, affective states and their relationships with cognition; then, I integrate them on the common basis of socially situated cognition. This new theory emphasizes the role of affective states in determining/being determined by cognition and its errors, pointing out decision makers’ affect as the result of multi-level adaptations to the physical and social environment. Management decisions are path dependent but not immutable; they, indeed, bank on the predominant feeling resulting from the modifying interactions and regulations of decision makers with their physical and social environment. Here, decision makers are proposed as “emotional cognizers” overcoming the thinking-feeling dichotomy that has often featured in the study of management decisions. This theory is beneficial for behavioral strategy, offering the needed assumptions to intertwine human cognition, emotions, and social behavior.     

A Multi‐level Dialectical–Paradox Lens for Top Management Team Strategic Decision‐Making in a Corporate Venture

This paper aims to critique the process of corporate‐owned, high‐tech start‐up strategizing through an inductive, longitudinal, case study of ‘UK‐Research‐Tech’. Insights are given through the combined ‘dialectical–paradox’ concept, thereby focusing on where ‘dialectic’ and ‘paradox’ theorizing overlap. This linked iterative, ‘dialogical–dialectic’ research approach also reflects chief executive officer/top management team (CEO/TMT) start‐up dynamics over time. These foci fill important gaps that impede better understanding of dialectical, dialogical and paradoxical forces within strategic decision‐making. As an interpretative tool, they illuminate CEO/TMT strategizing and changing interrelationships affected by broader, volatile, techno‐economic contexts and parent‐company influences on ventures. In this case study, it was found that the CEO's relatively autocratic, parent‐framed approach combined with TMT members' contradictory reactions to create ‘dialectical–paradox’ oppositional forces, eventually only resolved through ‘eleventh hour’ business strategy changes to rescue the venture. This research contributes to more nuanced understandings of corporate‐constrained ventures during early business development from start‐up strategic decisions at parent‐company level to subsequent conditions of more independent dynamic equilibrium. The ‘dialectical–paradox’ conceptual lens contributes an innovative critique of processes affecting strategic decision‐making dynamics. Another important contribution is the empirically inspired conceptual model, developed for use both to guide subsequent case‐study research analyses and as a reflective tool for CEO/TMT strategic decision‐making, especially within corporate‐inspired start‐ups.     

The effect of the future on today's decisions

What is the effect of the future on today's decisions? The future plays a part in all of our decisions whether we utilize formal forecasting techniques or not. Some of the uncertainty of the future can be reduced by applying one or more of the techniques of trend extrapolation, subjective opinion of experts, and construction of scenarios. The results, to be useful to decision makers, must be pertinent, credible and capable of realization.     

Strategic Integration and Devolvement of Human Resource Management in the UK Manufacturing Sector

This paper analyses the practices of ‘integration’ of HRM into the corporate strategy and ‘devolvement’ of responsibility for HRM to line managers in six British manufacturing industries. The findings are based on a questionnaire survey, in‐depth interviews and cognitive mapping methodologies. The results show that over 50% of the firms under study practise a high level of strategic integration. On the other hand, over 61% of the sample firms practise a low level of devolvement practices. Interestingly, both the practices of integration of HRM into the corporate strategy and devolvement of HRM to line managers are more determined by a number of organizational policies than traditional contingent variables. The adoption of the mixed methodology has been useful. The findings contribute to strategic HRM literature, and also have some key messages for policy‐makers in the field. The cognitive maps developed in the paper could be used to give feedback and training to managers.     

A multiobjective retail service location model for fastfood restaurants

Traditionally, most existing retail location models largely ignore the behavioral aspect of locational strategies. On the other hand, a few of the existing behavioral models of retail store choice are aspatial at best. This paper designs a multiobjective retail location decision model which not only considers the behavioral and spatial aspects of location scenarios, but also takes advantage of systematic sequential decision process. The model has been applied to solve ‘real-world-like’ fastfood restaurant location problems which were based on the actual data.