Understanding Organizational Safety Using Value-Focused Thinking

Decision analysis is recognized as the right way to make risk management decisions, using probabilistic techniques to assess the accident risk. It is also accepted that the decisions that individuals in the organization make affect the likelihood of an accident and thus managerial and organizational factors should be included in the risk modeling process. However, decision analytic techniques have not been used to understand the decisions that are made by these individuals. The initial domain for this research is marine transportation. We use the framework of value-focused thinking in order to understand safety decisions made within our research partner organization, a major domestic oil tanker operator. We describe the results of interviews held with managers and employees from this organization. Through these interviews, we sought to understand the values these experts apply in their roles within the organization and the objectives they seek to achieve to contribute to its overall safety performance. The end result is a framework that not only portrays the fundamental objectives of safe operations for various roles in the organization, but also interconnects these different decision contexts. We believe that this approach is fundamentally different from those used in previous work and that this is an interesting application of value-focused thinking.     

The 2008 Wall Street Crash: A Failed Organizational Response to Complexity

In the period since the 2008 Wall Street crash, little consensus has emerged on its causes or actions to prevent a recurrence. Our capability for rational decision making was overwhelmed. Viewing the entire financial system as a huge, richly interconnected organization suggests that its structure and associated management practices are suited for a far simpler environment. An organization that is large relative to its environment and sufficiently complex to require the coordination of specialized expertise cannot function by enabling decision makers to respond only to local demands. The resulting inability to recognize critical interdependencies and the nature of their risk makes periodic catastrophic failure likely. Specifically, compartmentalization of information, influence, and reward creates a myopic decision environment in which individual decision makers are unlikely to make effective or ethical decisions. Useful criteria for evaluating solutions can be suggested by considering the interaction of two factors: limited human information processing capability and the effect of motivation on information processing. Taken together, they suggest that human information processing is both limited and opportunistic. We cannot process all information available and the information selected for processing narrows to that needed to achieve salient rewards. Because of this, the organization's reward practices and their effect on motivation are a critical variable. Large financial rewards contingent upon short term, local, simplistic measures inevitably narrow the focus of decision maker's attention to a small part of the system. In contrast, dominant intrinsic motivation is rooted in awareness of, and responsibility for, broader outcomes. Each type of motivation differs in its requirements for sharing of information, influence, and reward. These, in turn, determine the adaptability of the organization to complexity and change. While this has significant ethical implications, its logic rests on the limitations of human information processing and motivation. Aligning human motivation and information flow to the demands of a complex, turbulent financial environment is the challenge we must meet to prevent further cataclysms.     

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

The estimation of the costs of a product or project and the decisions based on these forecasts are subject to much uncertainty relating to factors like unknown future developments. This has been addressed repeatedly in research studies focusing on different aspects of uncertainty; unfortunately, this interest has not yet been adopted in practice. One reason can be found in the inadequate representation of uncertainty. This paper introduces an experiment, which engages different approaches to displaying cost forecasting information to gauge the consideration of uncertainty in the subsequent decision-making process. Three different approaches of displaying cost-forecasting information including the uncertainty involved in the data were tested, namely a three point trend forecast, a bar chart, and a FAN-diagram. Furthermore, the effects of using different levels of contextual information about the decision problem were examined. The results show that decision makers tend to simplify the level of uncertainty from a possible range of future outcomes to the limited form of a point estimate. Furthermore, the contextual information made the participants more aware of uncertainty. In addition, the fan-diagram prompted 75.0% of the participants to consider uncertainty even if they had not used this type of diagram before; it was therefore identified as the most suitable method of graphical information display for encouraging decision makers to consider the uncertainty in cost forecasting.     

PERCEIVED INFORMATION STRUCTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM DESIGN

Top-level decision making in business organizations is characterized by high degrees of uncertainty, incomplete information, and conflicting objectives. To support top-level decision making effectively, decision support systems (DSSs) have been proposed. Information supplied by a DSS must be selective in that not all possible information sets may be feasibly or economically represented in the data base. This study suggests that discovery of perceptual complexity (dimensionality) of information items, and the subsequent categorization of decision makers having the same perceptions of those information items, is a first step in the ultimate design of an effective DSS. Through the use of multidimensional scaling in a field setting, this study shows the feasibility of creating relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers according to the content and number of dimensions associated with various information items. Further results of the research suggest that information can be tailored to classes of users, which has cost-benefit implications as well as the potential to improve the quality of the resultant decisions.     

Planning a sustainable reverse logistics system: Balancing costs with environmental and social concerns

The present work aims to support tactical and operational planning decisions of reverse logistics systems while considering economic, environmental and social objectives. In the literature, when addressing such systems economic aspects have been often used, while environmental concerns have emerged only recently. The social component is the one less studied and rarely the combination of the three concerns has been analyzed. This work considers the three objectives and was motivated by the challenge of supporting decision makers when managing a real case study of a recyclable waste collection system, where strategic decisions on the number and location of depots, vehicles and containers were taken beforehand. Tactical and operational decisions are studied involving the establishment of service areas for each depot and the definition and scheduling of collection routes for each vehicle. Such decisions should represent a compromise solution between the three objectives translating a sustainable reverse logistics plan. The problem is modeled as a multi-objective, multi-depot periodic vehicle routing problem with inter-depot routes. A mathematical formulation and a solution approach are proposed. An approximation to the Pareto front is obtained for the case study and the trade-offs between the objectives are discussed. A balanced solution is proposed.     

MANAGING PRODUCT VARIETY: AN INTEGRATIVE REVIEW AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Variety management has emerged as a crucial dimension of successful business practice. In this paper, I first provide a framework for managerial decisions about variety. Variety‐creation decisions determine the amount, type, and timing of end‐product variety, while variety‐implementation decisions focus on the design and operation of internal processes and a supply chain to support a firm's variety‐creation strategy. I organize variety‐related decisions into four key decision themes in variety creation: 1) dimensions of variety, 2) product architecture, 3) degree of customization, and 4) timing; and three key decision themes in variety implementation: 1) process capabilities, 2) points of variegation, and 3) day‐to‐day decisions. I describe each theme and review the relevant literature on each theme, with a focus on research that provides insight to problems faced in practice. Finally, I identify untapped avenues for future research that would be of value to the practicing manager, paying special attention to interdependencies among decision themes.     

Imitate Others? Not if We Have the Chance: Competitive Differentiation in Medical Malpractice Insurers' Pricing Decisions under Uncertainty

Several perspectives assert that organizations facing uncertainty tend to imitate other organizations' actions. While one might therefore expect to see great homogeneity across fields characterized by uncertainty, it is surprising that this homogeneity has not been observed more frequently in practice. Research investigating this puzzle has typically focused on the role played by organizational characteristics or the information organizations possess about their environments. Instead, this study turns attention to the information others possess about the organization. To that end, I disaggregate organizational uncertainty into the uncertainty facing decision makers and the uncertainty faced by others about what those decision makers might ultimately do, providing a more fine grained analysis of uncertainty and its impact on competitive action than typically offered in this literature. I suggest that uncertainty in competitors' evaluations of the organization provides an opportunity for the organization to differentiate itself rather than imitate others. I also suggest that this effect is stronger than the effects of the uncertainty facing the decision makers themselves. Related hypotheses are tested on a panel of medical malpractice insurance providers. The study's perspective generates unique predictions regarding imitation and differentiation in this industry and across other contexts featuring both uncertainty and competition.     

AN ADAPTIVE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC RESOURCE PLANNING

Institutions of higher learning are growing increasingly interested in the use of model-based approaches to their resource allocation problems. Recent modeling approaches, however, have failed to consider that resource allocation planning is not a well-structured decision process. Additionally, many decision makers are necessarily involved in the academic planning process and may assume dissimilar perspectives on the importance of achieving different goals and objectives. Furthermore, satisfactory allocation solutions can be expected to vary considerably from decision maker to decision maker as the individual's cognitive processes, perceptions, and evaluations are taken into consideration. This paper describes a decision support system (DSS) approach that attempts to adapt to a variety of academic decision makers with differing planning views in an environment of multiple conflicting objectives. This DSS, which was successfully tested on four academic decision makers in a large midwestern university, shows considerable promise for providing decision support to decision makers with varied problem-solving styles.     

Strategic Assessment Model (SAM): A Multiple Criteria Decision Support System for Evaluation of Strategic Alternatives*

The evaluation of strategic alternatives is a particularly difficult task. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant information from both the internal and external environments of the organization. Various analytical and normative models have helped decision makers utilize large volumes of information in strategic evaluation; however, most of these models have some limitations. We present a multiple criteria decision support system, called strategic assessment model (SAM), that addresses some of the limitations inherent in the existing models. SAM captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The environmental forces—decomposed into internal, task, general opportunities, and threats—are used along with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and utility theory to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of strategic alternatives.     

Technology Investment and Management Accounting Practice

Management accounting techniques and information are often accused of having many limitations that are likely to constrain investment in new technology. However, relatively little is known about the actual influence of management accounting practices on investment decisions. The empirical evidence of this research shows that new technology investment decisions are both highly complex and political. These decision attributes give rise to a protracted, circuitous, decision process that is very different from the rational model which dominates the capital budgeting literature. The research also shows that the management accounting system captures only a fraction of the information generated by this process and consequently has a relatively low influence on these investment decisions.     

SIDE EFFECTS OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM

Because campaign finance reform is usually motivated by the concern that existing legislation cannot effectively prevent campaign contributions to “buy favors,” this article assumes that contributions influence political decisions. But, given that it is also widely recognized that interest groups achieve influence by providing political decision makers with policy relevant information, we also assume that lobbies engage in non‐negligible informational lobbying. We focus on a single political decision to be taken and offer a simple model in which the optimal influence strategy is a mixture of both lobbying instruments. Our main result is to show that campaign finance reform may have important side effects: It may deter informational lobbying so that less policy relevant information is available and as a result political decisions become less efficient. (JEL: C72, D72)     

Global supplier development considering risk factors using fuzzy extended AHP-based approach

Global supplier development is a multi-criterion decision problem which includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. The global supplier selection problem is more complex than domestic one and it needs more critical analysis. The aim of this paper is to identify and discuss some of the important and critical decision criteria including risk factors for the development of an efficient system for global supplier selection. Fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process (FEAHP) based methodology will be discussed to tackle the different decision criteria like cost, quality, service performance and supplier's profile including the risk factors involved in the selection of global supplier in the current business scenario. FEAHP is an efficient tool to handle the fuzziness of the data involved in deciding the preferences of different decision variables. The linguistic level of comparisons produced by the customers and experts for each comparison are tapped in the form triangular fuzzy numbers to construct fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrices. The implementation of the system is demonstrated by a problem having four stages of hierarchy which contains different criteria and attributes at wider perspective. The proposed model can provide not only a framework for the organization to select the global supplier but also has the capability to deploy the organization's strategy to its supplier.     

A Goal Programming Model for Effective Segment Determination: A Comment and Application

This note presents a model for the effective market segment determination problem. The integer goal programming model was developed for a nonprofit health care organization. The approach is an alternative application of a model presented by McClure and Wells [7]. The model includes input from the organization's clients as well as the organization's decision makers. A distinctive element is the simultaneous development of market segments and the consideration of management, institutional, and resource constraints. The purpose of the model was to aid the decision makers in determining if effective market segments exist which can be reached with information and educational materials concerning infant nutrition and breastfeeding. The model was tested and found to be effective in helping the decision makers segment their clients.     

淡季中酒店与OTA合作模式选择研究

针对淡季时酒店入住率下降的困境,将"互联网+"背景与收益管理理论相结合,通过构建Stackelberg博弈模型,研究了淡季时酒店与在线旅游代理商（Online Travel Agent,OTA）如何选择合作模式以提高入住率和收益。研究在几种常见情境下展开,不同情境下均得出了最优合作模式。优化的合作模式不但协调了酒店服务供应链,而且在提高酒店整体效益的同时,也增加了OTA的收益。研究为酒店和OTA提供了具有可操作意义上的合作模式决策支持,同时也弥补了以往研究在酒店和OTA合作模式对比、选择与优化方面的空缺。     

The Effects of Information Overload on Software Project Risk Assessment*

Managers are responsible for providing effective information technology governance of the software development process. Ineffective governance leads to serious resource misallocations and negative consequences concerning Sarbanes‐Oxley compliance. In order for managers to make informed decisions about software development projects, they often need more information than is available through normal information channels, that is, they need an in‐depth review of the at‐risk project. Such in‐depth reviews, however, are costly. Hence, accurate identification of at‐risk projects for in‐depth review is critical to management's ability to govern. This research considers how two factors, information load and time pressure, affect the quality of the project‐selection process. We examine quality by observing the decision strategies involved and then relating these strategies to subsequent decision making. An experiment was conducted with experienced information systems auditors using a combination of policy‐capturing and computerized process‐tracing techniques. The participants in our study cope with information overload by accelerating their decision‐making process and adopting noncompensatory decision processes. Contrary to prior research, our process‐tracing analysis suggests that participants rarely filter information, thus implying that decision makers are unable to process all the information. Coping by resorting to noncompensatory strategies did not decrease decision quality unless combined with accelerated information processing. Participants also increase their weight on the software project risk factors that they repeatedly access and that they view for longer periods of time. The theoretical contributions and practical implications regarding what actions managers can take to reduce the negative impact of information overload are discussed.     

The Value of Environmental Information without Control of Subsequent Decisions

The standard value of information approach of decision analysis assumes that the individual or agency that collects the information is also in control of the subsequent decisions based on the information. We refer to this situation as the “value of information with control (VOI‐C).” This paradigm leads to powerful results, for example, that the value of information cannot be negative and that it is zero, when the information cannot change subsequent decisions. In many real world situations, however, the agency collecting the information is different from the one that makes the decision on the basis of that information. For example, an environmental research group may contemplate to fund a study that can affect an environmental policy decision that is made by a regulatory organization. In this two‐agency formulation, the information‐acquiring agency has to decide, whether an investment in research is worthwhile, while not being in control of the subsequent decision. We refer to this situation as “value of information without control (VOI‐NC).” In this article, we present a framework for the VOI‐NC and illustrate it with an example of a specific problem of determining the value of a research program on the health effects of power‐frequency electromagnetic fields. We first compare the VOI‐C approach with the VOI‐NC approach. We show that the VOI‐NC can be negative, but that with high‐quality research (low probabilities of errors of type I and II) it is positive. We also demonstrate, both in the example and in more general mathematical terms, that the VOI‐NC for environmental studies breaks down into a sum of the VOI‐NC due to the possible reduction of environmental impacts and the VOI‐NC due to the reduction of policy costs, with each component being positive for low environmental impacts and high‐quality research. Interesting results include that the environmental and cost components of the VOI‐NC move in opposite directions as a function of the probability of environmental impacts and that VOI‐NC can be positive, even though the probability of environmental impacts is zero or one.     

Organizational Computing as a Facilitator of Operational and Managerial Decision Making: An Exploratory Study of Managers' Perceptions*

Much of the current knowledge pertaining to information technology (IT) and decision making is based on decades old technologies that revolved around a central computing function and application-specific systems. The purpose of this research is to examine the IT decision-making relationship within the emerging organizational computing (OC) environment permeated by spontaneous utilization of both application-and nonapplication-specific computing and communication technologies. Specifically, this study seeks to explore managers' perceptions of the emerging OC environment as a facilitator of their decision-making activities. To achieve a higher level of clarity than previous works, a two-dimensional research framework is developed with the IT dimension consisting of computing and communication, and the decision-making dimension differentiated between operational and managerial decisions. A survey instrument was constructed that measured the computing and communication dimensions of information technology use and their perceived effects upon operational and managerial decisions. The major findings of the study confirmed that managers recognize the value of general, nonapplication-specific information technologies in decision making, and that this recognition is highly associated with how intensively these information technologies are used. Additionally, it was found that the two dimensions of IT differ in their relationships to decision making, and that IT usage relates to managerial decisions differently than operational decisions. These study findings have significant implication for practice and research, especially in the context of information resource management in which the primary purpose of the IS function is the delivery of general information service to users rather than the development of specific IS applications.     

A multiple goal methodology for evaluating management information systems

The behavior and performance of an organization are intimately tied to the mode and effectiveness of its information processing function. While there is a rapidly expanding level of research concerned with the design, development, and implementation of management information systems (MIS), relatively few approaches to the evaluation and improvement of these systems have been suggested. The current paper develops a multiple goal methodology aimed at filling this gap by evaluating and, if necessary, subsequently modifying any given set of MIS design variables considered capable of enhancing a series of operational and, perhaps, conflicting goals. The methodology is based on a series of significant findings from the MIS design literature. In particular, the procedure incorporates the tripartite of decision type/decision-maker/MIS design into the evaluation process. The methodology is user-based, being flexible with respect to the definition of performance objectives, evaluation measures, design variables, and correction strategies. A brief example applies the methodology to the evaluation of an MIS within a health services organization.     

A Staged Service Innovation Model*

Drawing from the new product development (NPD) literature, service quality literature (SERVQUAL), and empirically grounded research with 53 service innovation decision makers, we develop a staged service innovation model (SIM) for decision makers. We tested the model using empirical data from 329 firms across five industries. The empirical results show that integrating prelaunch service quality training into new service development process leads to successful service innovation. The model developed in this article can be used as a decision support tool and diagnostic model for assessing service innovation ideas, evaluating performance of ongoing service innovations, allocating resources, and improving success rate of service innovations. Decision makers can use the measures developed in this study as a checklist to identify their strengths in delivering service quality to their own customers as well as areas of improvement. This article extends service innovation research by combining NPD and service quality development into a single study and opens the door to further work that could help improve the success rate of service innovations. The model can serve as a base model for future research extensions in service innovation research. A major takeaway for the academic reader is that the SIM demonstrates the value of using the SERVQUAL literature to understand how best to provide excellent quality that results in more fully satisfied customers and, ultimately, improved service performance.