随机条件下房地产开发的最优时机选择及其可达性问题研究

实物期权框架下的房地产投资相关研究长期忽视了对投资时机可达性问题的研究、忽视了对收益流与成本流相关性问题的探讨.有鉴于此,本文在房地产价格与建安成本二重随机性以及二者具有相关性的条件下,运用期权分析技术建模研究了房地产开发商的最优时机选择问题及最优时机的可达性问题.同时,文章对研究结果作了可达性分析、比较静态分析、数值分析、经济含义分析与政策含义分析,并对结论做了定性的实证检验.     

欧式期权的主观预期估价方法及投资决策

考虑投资者对标的证券价格推断或权衡等主观因素,给出欧式期权的主观预期估价及投资决策方法.方法的建立无需特别设定假设条件,且计算公式十分简单.可以证明,在一定的条件下由该方法得到的估价结果与标准的Black-Scholes模型的定价结果一致.     

部分信息下实物期权的定价和风险对冲

当前所有实物期权理论研究都是基于完全信息(full information)假设.本文则通过研究投资者在部分信息(partial information)下极大化无限期消费效用的最优投资消费问题,得出实物期权的消费效用无差别价格.通过控制系统的分离原理,运用Kalman滤波技术和随机控制方法,得到了CARA效用函数情形下实物期权的自由边界偏微分方程.利用有限差分法,解得实物期权的隐含价值及最优执行水平从而得到最优投资消费策略和效用函数的数值解.通过蒙特卡洛模拟,给出了投资者在完全信息和部分信息下的动态决策差异,并且通过比较两种信息水平下的投资者福利给出了信息价值的测算.     

投资时限对项目期权价值的影响分析

针对一般实物期权研究中,项目投资无限期假设的不足,研究实际中对投资时间有限期要求项目的投资期权评价问题.文章以我国房地产投资政策为背景,建立模型,研究给出了对投资机会限定在时间T内有效、投资者在其中具有投资管理柔性的投资项目的价值评价.用数值分析方法讨论了投资时限对投资机会价值和对投资者最优决策的影响,给出了投资者在等待以降低投资风险和尽快投资以避免机会失效之间的权衡.     

非对称信息条件下外部性问题研究

描述了外部性期权投资者和经营者价值函数,分析了不同信息条件下外部性期权的最优投资决策.在非对称信息条件下,外部性期权经营者对于项目价值信息隐匿,这是一个具有逆向选择的委托代理问题.设计了以外部性期权管理当局利润数学期望最大为目标函数,以控污成本和污染预防水平作为状态方程的最优控制问题.应用极大值原理得出了外部性期权最优控污成本和污染评价水平的求解方案.最后,进行了外部性期权的仿真实验,验证了外部性期权上的分析结果.     

物流服务供应链中基于期权契约的能力协调

不同于产品供应链,物流服务供应链作为能力链,其协调手段只能通过服务能力的调整与优化来实现。在Stackelberg主从博弈下提出一种基于期权契约的协调机制来研究集成商与分包商物流能力的订购与投资决策问题,并对协调机制效果及供应链期望额外利润的分配进行数值检验和结论分析。研究结果表明,所设计的期权契约可实现物流服务供应链完美协调,并提高双方的期望利润。而且,物流服务供应链实现协调时,期权契约参数--期权价格与期权执行价格之间存在负相关关系,而作为契约核心决策要素的期权价格必须在一个合理的范围内。     

结构化金融产品的最优设计与定价——基于发行者与投资者视角

基于行为金融学相关理论,从发行者和投资者双方角度,研究了具有嵌入式障碍期权的结构化产品的设计及其定价问题。首先根据发行者和投资者行为特征,对产品支付结构进行设计,给出支付函数;其次在一定假设下,对产品进行定价,获得定价闭合解;最后基于产品价格公式,分别对到期时间、波动率、初始障碍和初始执行价格等重要参数进行灵敏度分析,结果表明,这些参数变化对产品理论价格的影响不尽相同,由于产品的特殊性,分析结果与已有产品相比有一定差异。     

技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述

实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF) 更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策 问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估 价. 根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一 般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法. 侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物 期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.     

基于信息熵理论的实物期权定价模型及其应用

本文结合实物期权的特点,提出了基于信息熵理论的实物期权定价模型,它根据历史信息和投资者的经验估计期权价格,避免了传统期权定价模型过多依赖于参数选择和假设条件的不足。本文还进一步探讨了该方法与传统期权定价模型间的关系,并合理的解释了企业决策中信息的重要性。最后,结合一个示例,说明了该模型在企业投资决策中的应用价值。     

基于鲁棒控制的期权定价方法

首先从经济学的行为分析出发 ,在鲁棒控制的框架下给出了期权卖价、买价和公平价格的严格定义 .然后通过求解微分对策 ,得到了定价模型值函数的封闭解 .最后给出了期权价格及其对冲策略的显式表达式 ,并比较了这种期权定价方法与随机方法的优缺点     

Explaining costumer reactions to real stockouts

The occurrence of stockouts remains an unsolved problem for retailers that provoke severe revenue and image losses, as well as greater customer dissatisfaction for both retailers and manufacturers. A literature review suggests a model of influential antecedents of consumers’ reactions to product unavailability. A field study then provides insights into true stockout situations, unlike a hypothetical research setting. With these data, this study reveals that loyalty and the presence of product alternatives have the greatest impacts on customer reactions. This result has significant theoretical and managerial implications due to the fact that results based on hypothetical settings did not hold.     

房地产市场的生存均衡

研究房地产市场的 Walras均衡问题 .首先建立了房地产市场的静态模型 ,定义了房地产市场的可生存 Walras均衡 ,并证明了其存在性 .其次 ,给出了房地产市场的微分包含形式的动态演化模型 ,利用生存理论证明了在一定条件下房地产市场的可生存动态均衡是存在的 .最后 ,对我国房地产市场的发展状况进行了分析 ,并提出了一些建议     

Super doc and real health reform

A large array of social, economic, and professional issues will have to be confronted and resolved before primary care physicians can take their logical place as leaders in the health care delivery system. Linkages will have to be forged between primary care physicians and specialists and between primary care physicians and nonphysician providers of primary care. Key to successful resolution of the current dilemma is ensuring that primary care physicians are compensated at a fair level for their skills. It is the disparity in physician incomes that lies at the heart of the problem, according to the author.     

Internalization and internationalization under competing real options

The theories of internalization and internationalization provide general factors of international market entry but are not precise about its timing. The theory of real options may complement these approaches as it centers the impact of uncertainty on the timing and dimensioning of investment. A panel study of 5379 German entries to 22 countries suggests that, under the moderating influence of competition, the economic uncertainty in a host country has a U-shaped influence on the moment of entry. The results further reveal that uncertainty has a negative effect on the amount of capital at entry. Uncertainty shows no impact on the share in capital at entry, which challenges the view of international joint ventures as real options.     

Health care enters the real world.

The U.S. health care system is undergoing restructuring as a result of a complex interplay of social, political, and economic forces. Where once the medical profession had a monopoly position in the health care system, its position has been challenged by the Federal Trade Commission under the Sherman Antitrust Act. More and more, the health care field is characterized by entrepreneurialism, a concept that is at odds with the traditional tenets of the medical profession. The restructuring of health care in the U.S. has the potential to allow the entrepreneur to function to the benefit of patients, despite the fact that this is a change resisted by those providing health care services.     

Approaches to real world two-dimensional cutting problems

We consider a real world generalization of the 2-Dimensional Guillotine Cutting Stock Problem arising in the wooden board cutting industry. A set of rectangular items has to be cut from rectangular stock boards, available in multiple formats. In addition to the classical objective of trim loss minimization, the problem also asks for the maximization of the cutting equipment productivity, which can be obtained by cutting identical boards in parallel. We present several heuristic algorithms for the problem, explicitly considering the optimization of both objectives. The proposed methods, including fast heuristic algorithms, Integer Linear Programming models and a truncated Branch and Price algorithm, have increasing complexity and require increasing computational effort. Extensive computational experiments on a set of realistic instances from the industry show that high productivity of the cutting equipment can be obtained with a minimal increase in the total area of used boards. The experiments also show that the proposed algorithms perform extremely well when compared with four commercial software tools available for the solution of the problem.     

析包法利夫人悲剧的实质

浪漫的天性和美丽的外表与其说是包法利夫人骄傲的资本,不如说是摧毁她生活乃至生命的武器。平淡安宁并不是人人都向往的生活,透过包法利夫人一次次狂热追寻爱情的失败,不难看出包法利夫人所要追求的那种幸福感,本质上是不存在的。也正是因为这种不存在,包法利夫人在对自己和生活的绝望中走向毁灭。     

A decomposition technique for quantifying real process performance

A decomposition technique for quantifying the impacts of changes in product mix and process performance on aggregate process-related indicators is presented. Through application of the technique, the real performance of a process can be quantified. Changes in real performance over time can be monitored to provide useful information for process evaluation and production planning. Two case studies, one related to the aggregate defective rate for an assembly line of an integrated circuit fabrication plant and the other to the aggregate inventory turnover for a tyre distribution company, are presented to illustrate the application of the technique.     

测试实数编码遗传算法的困难度

分析了遗传算法困难度测试在遗传算法研究中的重要意义. 鉴于当前这方面的研究集 中于二进制编码遗传算法,对实数编码遗传算法的困难度测试进行了分析. 探讨了实数编码遗 传算法困难度分析的适应值与距离相关系数测试法与基于随机游走模型的相关函数测试法, 提出了最佳一阶函数逼近测试法,做了大量实验,并根据实证分析结果对三种方法进行了比较 与评价.