THE q-BETA-GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION AS A MODEL FOR FECUNDABILITY

The number of sterile couples in a retrospective study of the number of cycles to conception is necessarily zero; this is not so for a prospective study. The paper puts forward a modification of Weinberg and Gladen's beta geometric model for cycles to conception that is suitable for both types of investigation. The probability that a couple achieves conception at the xth cycle, but not earlier, is assumed to take the form R_x = (1 ? ρ)/(1 ? m ^x?1 ρ/u), instead of μ/(1 ? θ + θx). The set of parameter restraints (0 < m < 1, 0< ρ < 1, 1 < u) is appropriate for retrospective data, whilst the alternative set of restraints (1 < m, 1 < ρ, 0 < u < 1) is appropriate for prospective data. The decrease in R_x over time can be interpreted not only as a time effect, but also as a heterogeneity effect by replacing Weinberg and Gladen's beta mixture of geometric distributions by a q-beta mixture.     

Frequency of Selecting Noise Variables in Subset Regression Analysis: A Simulation Study

This article presents the results of a simulation study of variable selection in a multiple regression context that evaluates the frequency of selecting noise variables and the bias of the adjusted R ² of the selected variables when some of the candidate variables are authentic. It is demonstrated that for most samples a large percentage of the selected variables is noise, particularly when the number of candidate variables is large relative to the number of observations. The adjusted R ² of the selected variables is highly inflated.     

ON ASYMPTOTIC OPTIMALITY OF SOME TESTS FOR EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

The probability density function (pdf) of a two parameter exponential distribution is given by f(x; p, s?) =s?^-1 exp {-(x - ρ)/s?} for x≥ρ and 0 elsewhere, where 0 < ρ < ∞ and 0 < s?∞. Suppose we have k independent random samples where the ith sample is drawn from the ith population having the pdf f(x; ρ_i, s?_i), 0 < ρ_i < ∞, 0 < s?_i < s?_i < and f(x; ρ, s?) is as given above. Let X_i1 < X_i2 <… < X_iri denote the first r_i order statistics in a random sample of size n_i, drawn from the ith population with pdf f(x; ρ_i, s?_i), i = 1, 2,…, k. In this paper we show that the well known tests of hypotheses about the parameters ρ_i, s?_i, i = 1, 2,…, k based on the above observations are asymptotically optimal in the sense of Bahadur efficiency. Our results are similar to those for normal distributions.     

Matching a correlation coefficient by a Gaussian copula

A Gaussian copula is widely used to define correlated random variables. To obtain a prescribed Pearson correlation coefficient of ρ_x between two random variables with given marginal distributions, the correlation coefficient ρ_z between two standard normal variables in the copula must take a specific value which satisfies an integral equation that links ρ_x to ρ_z. In a few cases, this equation has an explicit solution, but in other cases it must be solved numerically. This paper attempts to address this issue. If two continuous random variables are involved, the marginal transformation is approximated by a weighted sum of Hermite polynomials; via Mehler’s formula, a polynomial of ρ_z is derived to approximate the function relationship between ρ_x and ρ_z. If a discrete variable is involved, the marginal transformation is decomposed into piecewise continuous ones, and ρ_x is expressed as a polynomial of ρ_z by Taylor expansion. For a given ρ_x, ρ_z can be efficiently determined by solving a polynomial equation.     

On the maxima of heterogeneous gamma variables

In this article, we establish some new results on stochastic comparisons of the maxima of two heterogenous gamma variables with different shape and scale parameters. Let X₁ and X₂ [X*₁ and X*₂] be two independent gamma variables with X_i?[X*_i] having shape parameter r_i?[r*_i] and scale parameter λ_i?[λ*_i], i = 1, 2. It is shown that the likelihood ratio order holds between the maxima, X_{2: 2} and X*_{2: 2} when λ₁ = λ*₁ ? λ₂ = λ*₂ and r₁ ? r*₁ ? r₂ = r*₂. We also prove that, if r_i, r*_i ∈ (0, 1], (r₁, r₂) majorizes (r*₁, r₂*), and (λ₁, λ₂) is p-larger than (λ*₁, λ₂*), then X_{2: 2} is larger than X*_{2: 2} in the sense of the hazard rate order [dispersive order]. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the main results. The new results established here strengthen and generalize some of the results known in the literature.     

Selecting the normal population with the smallest variance: A restricted subset selection rule

Consider k( ? 2) normal populations whose means are all known or unknown and whose variances are unknown. Let σ²_[1] ? ??? ? σ_[k]² denote the ordered variances. Our goal is to select a non empty subset of the k populations whose size is at most m(1 ? m ? k ? 1) so that the population associated with the smallest variance (called the best population) is included in the selected subset with a guaranteed minimum probability P* whenever σ²_[2]/σ_[1]² ? δ* > 1, where P* and δ* are specified in advance of the experiment. Based on samples of size n from each of the populations, we propose and investigate a procedure called R_BCP. We also derive some asymptotic results for our procedure. Some comparisons with an earlier available procedure are presented in terms of the average subset sizes for selected slippage configurations based on simulations. The results are illustrated by an example.     

Estimators of location based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistics

Two classes of estimators of a location parameter ø₀ are proposed, based on a nonnegative functional H₁^* of the pair (D₁^ø_N, G^ø_N), where and where F_N is the sample distribution function. The estimators of the first class are defined as a value of ø minimizing H₁^*; the estimators of the second class are linearized versions of those of the first. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is derived, and it is shown that the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, the signed linear rank statistics, and the Cramérvon Mises statistics are special cases of such functionals H₁^*;. These estimators are closely related to the estimators of a shift in the two-sample case, proposed and studied by Boulanger in B2 (pp. 271–284).     

On The Role of a Certain Eigenvalue in Estimating the Growth Rate of a Branching Process

In many situations, the data given on a p-type Galton-Watson process Z_n eP N^p will consist of the total generation sizes |Z_n| only. In that case, the maximum likelihood estimator ρ_ML of the growth rate ρ is not observable, and the asymptotic properties of the most obvious estimators of ρ based on the |Z_n|, as studied by Asmussen & Keiding (1978), show a crucial dependence on |ρ₁|,ρ₁ being a certain other eigenvalue of the offspring mean matrix. In fact, if |ρ₁|²≤ρ, then the speed of convergence compares badly with ρ_ML. In the present note, it is pointed out that recent results of Heyde (1981) on so-called Fibonacci branching processes provide further examples of this phenomenon, and an estimator with the same speed of convergence as ρ_ML and based on the |Z_n| alone is exhibited for the case p= 2, ρ₁²≥ρ.     

Locally minimax tests for multiple correlations

Let X be a normally distributed p-dimensional column vector with mean μ and positive definite covariance matrix σ. and let X α, α = 1,…, N, be a random sample of size N from this distribution. Partition X as ( X ₁, X ₍₂₎', X '₍₃₎)', where X₁ is one-dimension, X₍₂₎ is p₂- dimensional, and so 1 + p₁ + p₂ = p. Let ρ₁ and ρ be the multiple correlation coefficients of X₁ with X₍₂₎ and with ( X '₍₂₎, X '₍₃₎)', respectively. Write ρ2/2 = ρ² - ρ2/1. We shall cosider the following two problems     

Decomposition of Prediction Error in Multilevel Models

ABSTRACT

We present a decomposition of prediction error for the multilevel model in the context of predicting a future observable y _*j in the jth group of a hierarchical dataset. The multilevel prediction rule is used for prediction and the components of prediction error are estimated via a simulation study that spans the various combinations of level-1 (individual) and level-2 (group) sample sizes and different intraclass correlation values. Additionally, analytical results present the increase in predicted mean square error (PMSE) with respect to prediction error bias. The components of prediction error provide information with respect to the cost of parameter estimation versus data imputation for predicting future values in a hierarchical data set. Specifically, the cost of parameter estimation is very small compared to data imputation.     

Estimation and Inference for Linear Panel Data Models Under Misspecification When Both n and T are Large

This article considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, n, and the number of time periods, T, are large. We first clarify the probability limit of the FE estimator and argue that this probability limit can be regarded as a pseudo-true parameter. We then establish the asymptotic distributional properties of the FE estimator around the pseudo-true parameter when n and T jointly go to infinity. Notably, we show that the FE estimator suffers from the incidental parameters bias of which the top order is O(T^{? 1}), and even after the incidental parameters bias is completely removed, the rate of convergence of the FE estimator depends on the degree of model misspecification and is either (nT)^{? 1/2} or n^{? 1/2}. Second, we establish asymptotically valid inference on the (pseudo-true) parameter. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic properties of the clustered covariance matrix (CCM) estimator and the cross-section bootstrap, and show that they are robust to model misspecification. This establishes a rigorous theoretical ground for the use of the CCM estimator and the cross-section bootstrap when model misspecification and the incidental parameters bias (in the coefficient estimate) are present. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimators and inference methods, together with a simple application to the unemployment dynamics in the U.S.     

Generating correlated random vector involving discrete variables

For the issue of generating correlated random vector containing discrete variables, one major obstacle is to determine a suitable correlation coefficient ρ_z in normal space for a specified correlation coefficient ρ_x. This paper develops a method to solve this problem. First, the double integral evaluated for ρ_x is transformed into independent standard uniform space, then, a Quasi Monte Carlo method is introduced to calculate the double integral. For a given ρ_x, an appropriate ρ_z is determined by a false position method. Compared with existing methodologies, the proposed method is less efficient, but it is relatively easy to implement.     

Approximate confidence bounds for ratios of variance components in two-way unbalanced crossed models with interactions

Consider the general unbalanced two-factor crossed components-of-variance model with interaction given by Y_ijk: = μ+A_i: +B_j: + C_ij: +E_ijk: (i = 1,2, … a; j = 1,…,b; k = 1,…,.n_ij:=0) A_i:,B_j:, C_ij: and E_ijk: are independent unobservable random variables. Also A_i:sim; N(0,σ² _A),B_j: ～ N(0,σ² _B), C_ij:～N(0,s² _C:) and E_ijk:～N(0,s² _E:). In this paper approximate confidence bounds are obtained for ρ_A: = ρ² _A/² and ρ_B: = ρ² _B:/ρ² (where σ² = σ² _A:+ σ² _B+σ² _Cσ² _E) for special cases of the above model. The balanced incomplete block model is studied as a special case.     

On the robustness of the linear hypothesis test procedure in the singular linear model with implied restrictions

The linear hypothesis test procedure is considered in the restricted linear modelsM _r = {y, Xβ |Rβ = 0, σ ²V} andM _r ^* = {y, Xβ |ARβ = 0, σ ²V}. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived under which the statistic providing anF-test for the linear hypothesisH ₀:Kβ=0 in the modelM _r ^* (M_r) continues to be valid in the modelM _r (M _r ^* ); the results obtained cover the case whereM _r ^* is replaced by the general Gauss-Markov modelM = {y, Xβ, σ ²V}.     

Jackknifing in Categorical Data Analysis

Estimation of nonlinear functions of a multinomial parameter vector is necessary in many categorical data problems. The first and second order jackknife are explored for the purpose of reduction of bias. The second order jackknife of a function g(.) of a multinomial parameter is shown to be asymptotically normal if all second order partials ?²g( p )?dp_i?p_j obey a Hölder condition with exponent α>1/2. Numerical results for the estimation of the log odds ratio in a 2times2 table demonstrate the efficiency of the jackknife method for reduction of mean-square-error and the construction of approximate confidence intervals.     

Limiting behavior of randomly weighted averages of symmetric heavy-tailed random variables

In this paper we consider a sequence of independent continuous symmetric random variables X₁, X₂, …, with heavy-tailed distributions. Then we focus on limiting behavior of randomly weighted averages S_n = R⁽ⁿ⁾₁X₁ + ??? + R⁽ⁿ⁾_nX_n, where the random weights R⁽ⁿ⁾₁, …, R_n⁽ⁿ⁾ which are independent of X₁, X₂, …, X_n, are the cuts of (0, 1) by the n ? 1 order statistics from a uniform distribution. Indeed we prove that c_nS_n converges in distribution to a symmetric α-stable random variable with c_n = n^{1 ? 1/α}/Γ^1/α(α + 1).     

CONDITIONING VS. STANDARDIZATION FOR CONTRASTS ON ERRORS ATTRACTED TO STABLE LAWS

In multiple regression and other settings one encounters the problem of estimating sampling distributions for contrast operations applied to i.i.d. errors. Permutation bootstrap applied to least squares residuals has been proven to consistently estimate conditionalsampling distributions of contrasts, conditional upon order statistics of errors, even for long-tailed error distributions. How does this compare with the unconditional sampling distribution of the contrast when standardizing by the sample s.d. of the errors (or the residuals)? For errors belonging to the domain of attraction of a normal we present a limit theorem proving that these distributions are far closer to one another than they are to the limiting standard normal distribution. For errors attracted to α-stable laws with α ≤ 2 we construct random variables possessing these conditional and unconditional sampling distributions and develop a Poisson representation for their a.s. limit correlation ρ_α. We prove that ρ₂= 1, ρ_α→ 1 for α → 0 + or 2 ?, and ρ_α< 1 a.s. for α < 2.     

Spurious Regressions with Time-Series Data: Further Asymptotic Results

A “spurious regression” is one in which the time-series variables are non stationary and independent. It is well known that in this context the OLS parameter estimates and the R ² converge to functionals of Brownian motions, the “t-ratios” diverge in distribution, and the Durbin–Watson statistic converges in probability to zero. We derive corresponding results for some common tests for the normality and homoskedasticity of the errors in a spurious regression.     

A bayesian approach to a reliability problem: Theory,analysis and interesting numerics

We consider approximate Bayesian inference about the quantity R = P[Y₂> Y₁] when both the random variables Y₁, Y₂ have expectations that depend on certain explanatory variables. Our interest centers on certain characteristics of the posterior of R under Jeffreys's prior, such as its mean, variance and percentiles. Since the posterior of R is not available in closed form, several approximation procedures are introduced, and their relative performance is assessed using two real datasets.