Growth,Inequality and Poverty in Emerging and Transition Economies

This paper aims to explore the quality of economic growth in a sample of 50 emerging and transition economies (ETEs), which are countries experiencing a process of fast growth and institutional change. Economic growth during 1995–2006 is regressed against poverty, inequality and human development variables using OLS cross-country regression models. The main findings are that growth did not reduce poverty and income inequality worsened too. On the one hand, economic growth occurred despite the worsening of income inequality. However, this result does not identify a “U-shaped” Kuznets curve because even after a consistent period of growth, inequality did not decrease and it remained at higher levels. Only countries with higher education levels and public expenditure in strategic dimensions seem to escape from this trap. On the other hand, growth occurred at the expense of an important human development variable i.e., life expectancy, and of an important indicator of democracy, i.e., voice and accountability.     

Developing a civilised society in transition economies: The Post Keynesian paradigm

A Post Keynesian paradigm of transition requires the exposition of what I define as primary elements: economic analysis; definition of a good society; speed; political structure; ideological structure and the role of initial conditions. The next step is to identify secondary elements, the desired changes with respect to: price liberalisation-stabilisation; privatisation; institutional structure; monetary policy and the financial system; fiscal policy; international trade and social policy. It is argued that Post Keynesianism clarifies the reasons why the orthodox model of transition implemented in transition economies was inappropriate and unsuccessful. The Post Keynesian recommendations would have resulted in a more sensible and successful transition.     

THE HOME MARKET EFFECT IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRADE

I show that military spending contributes to international arms proliferation through a push effect: large demand encourages production growth in the domestic market if transport costs are non‐negligible. Under increasing returns to scale, the country can then supply weapons on the global market at low prices. This is a manifestation of the home market effect (HME), which states that countries with higher demand for a differentiated good will be net exporters of that good. I construct a monopolistic competition model of international trade that accounts for differences in demand across countries, and test its predictions using post‐Cold War data. (JEL F1, H5, R1)     

Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical evidence

We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970–2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.     

Mexican Migration for Dummies: What Social Workers and the Public Need to Know

SUMMARY

Amid the derisive, post-911 political debate about border control, national security, and “illegal aliens,” nobody, not even immigrant advocates and protesters, is articulating the macro-level, global economic root cause of undocumented labor migration to America. In simple terms, this essay describes how the contradictory policies of an open border for trade (i.e., NAFTA) and a closed border for immigration result in a predictable undocumented migration bridge between the U.S. and Mexico that must be sensibly regulated for the good of neighboring countries that now share formally integrated economies, yet informally integrated populations. Implications for policy and immigrant serving social workers and other human service providers are discussed.     

International trade,labour migrations and capital flows: long-term evidence for Australia,Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States

The historical links between international factor mobility and the extent of international trade are analysed over the long term for three high labour immigration countries (Australia, Canada and the United States) and one high labour emigration country (the United Kingdom).
Time series data are used. Current international openness is assessed relative to this experience. International factor market integration has increased over time with trade liberalization, suggesting that traditional Hecksher-Ohlin thinking cannot be readily used to account for long-term trends in several important economies.
Both trade and factor mobility have an episodic character that makes it misleading to assess current international openness only in terms of post-World War 2 economic trends.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

Policy Space: What,for What,and Where?

This article examines how developing countries can use, and enlarge, existing policy space, without opting out of international commitments. It argues that: (i) a meaningful context for policy space must extend beyond trade policy and include macroeconomic and exchange‐rate policies that will achieve developmental goals more effectively; (ii) policy space depends not only on international rules but also on the impact of international market conditions and policy decisions taken in other countries on the effectiveness of national policy instruments; and (iii) international integration affects policy space through several factors that pull in opposite directions; whether it increases or reduces policy space differs by country and type of integration.     

Humanitarian Organizations in International Disaster Relief: Understanding the Linkage Between Donors and Recipient Countries

This study explores how humanitarian organizations (HOs) link donors and recipients in a disaster relief coordination mechanism. Based on an analysis of real data collected from the financial tracking service, our results show that disaster assistance through the HO channel greatly exceeds the funding delivered by the non-HO channel. The severity of the disaster is positively correlated with the involvement of HOs. Disaster-stricken countries that belong to the Non-Aligned Movement receive more assistance through the HO channel. The recipients with less international trade may attract more HO-channel funding, but higher international tourism expenditures also may result in more HO-channel funding. We also found that the determinants of the disaster relief coordination path vary greatly in terms of trade openness, political regime, and geographic factors. Based on the analysis of the primary humanitarian relief supply chain, the results show that some countries prefer to donate through large international HOs (e.g., Japan and Canada), and other countries favor national level organizations (e.g., the UK and the USA). Finally, to improve the efficiency of international disaster relief, the paper suggests a coordination platform that involves the main donors, frequent recipients, HOs, and a Global Information Network that can assist in coordinating disaster relief activities.

     

错综复杂的世界经济未来会走向哪里？

当前世界经济形势依然错综复杂。希腊退出和西班牙银行违约的风险可能造成全球经济的二次探底;德、法债权国深知欧元区存在的重要性和失去的可怕性;美国经济复苏来自于自身利益至上的考量,并不见得会给中国带来机会。为此,各国政府一定要加强国际合作和国际协调的力度,同时,要根据各国经济内在的比较优势,努力创造外部良好的开放环境,打造市场活力,确保世界投资与贸易健康成长,从而让实体经济的繁荣去吸收各国政府救市以来所创造出的大量流动性。     

International Financial Integration and Its Distinctions in Transition Economies

We discuss the main tendencies and forms of international financial integration in both developing and developed economies. Integration of financial markets is a topic of economic debates especially for developed and transition economies, particularly Armenia, because it is the most effective way of overcoming the main problems of financial-sector development of transition economies. But there are many problems on the way of financial integration, which are summarized into four groups: institutional problems, legislative problems, macroeconomic instability, and technical problems. All of these problems are analyzed in the article for Armenia, though they are quite relevant for most transition countries.      

Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies

This paper investigates the major sources of changes in the trade balance of four Central European and three Baltic transition economies with an emphasis on the difference between permanent and transitory disturbances to income. In all seven countries the findings support the hypothesis that transitory disturbances to income are the main determinants of changes in the trade balance. These results seem to be fairly consistent with inter-temporal models of trade balance, which view transitory shocks to income as the main source of variations in the trade balance. These results do not seem to support the view that productivity shocks alone generate most of the variation in the trade balance.      

International Migration Policies: 1950-2000

Policies on international migration since the Second World War reflect the enormous changes in economic, social and political situations around the world.
The implications of changes in the volume and composition of international migration have increasingly become an issue of major concern to governments in all countries.
Following emigration from Europe to countries of the New World as a result of war-damaged economies, reconstruction witnessed high demand for migrant labour, mainly from parts of southern Europe. But by the early 1970s, decline in economic growth, unexpected impacts of the guest-worker scheme, and an increase in refugees from Third World countries led, in due course, to an era of restriction on entry of asylum-seekers and tighter controls over undocumented migration to developed countries.
A "new era" evolved during the 1990s, characterized by growing interdependence of major economic powers. Globalization led not only to a significant demand for highly-skilled and professional workers, but also to decision-making on some aspects of the migration process being transferred from the national to the regional level, and an increase in the influence of multinational corporations.
The globalization process, and the growing influence of international trade regimes, may well represent the first steps towards a new "international migration regime" that incorporates all types of migration.     

Equity versus equality: Spectators,stakeholders and groups

Justice figures prominently in a wide variety of economically important contexts that involve both third parties and involved parties, e.g., in environmental regulation, international trade, and legal proceedings. The primary rivals for fairness rules over the distribution of a fixed good are equality and equity (i.e., allocations that are proportional to contributions). This paper reports the results of a dictator experiment in relation to a large variety of factors that might affect these rules, including performance on a real effort task, in-group identity, subject pools, allocative power, cultural orientation and demographic variables. We find impersonal third parties (i.e., Spectators) allocating anonymously for others favor equity. Subjects who share personal stakes anonymously with recipients (i.e., Stakeholders) allocate amounts between equity and equality. Stakeholders, who meet and communicate with their recipients (i.e., In-groups), allocate even more equally than anonymous stakeholders to their own recipients and behave more selfishly toward other subjects (i.e., Out-groups). These findings are robust with respect to subject pool, a measure of culture, and demographic variables, which seldom matter. We conclude that there is considerable agreement about these fairness rules, when parties are well informed, although there remain important differences across subject pools in the willingness to act on those rules.     

Innovation Propensity in the EU Candidate Countries

Innovation activities in transition economies generally lag behind developed economies. This is also the case in the latest group of EU candidate countries whose innovation performance lags behind EU-27 average. In this paper we analyze the innovation propensity of firms in EU candidate countries (Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey). The analysis relies on the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS 2009) data. By employing probit model we have identified determinants of innovation propensity in analyzed countries. The results point to external factors such as the subsidies, customer pressure to innovate, obstacles from high tax burdens, political instability and inadequate education of workforce as significant positive predictors. Based on the results, few innovation policy recommendations are proposed.     

TECHNICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STATES: Loose Coupling in the Human Rights Sector of the World Polity

While human rights treaties have become increasingly popular over the past quarter century, there has not been a corresponding improvement in human rights practices. This discrepancy implies that a country's formal pledge to uphold human rights principles is "loosely coupled" from its actual performance. In this study, I develop a model of loose coupling based on organizational research and apply it to the human rights sector of the world polity. Empirically, I identify a set of institutional states whose human rights practices fall short of their treaty commitments, as well as a set of technical states whose practices exceed their commitments. Analyzing an unbalanced data set with a maximum of 755 observations across 167 countries during the 1975 to 2000 period, I use random effects models to predict a state's location on the Human Rights Decoupling Index (HRDI). The findings illustrate the importance of several organizational concepts for predicting a state's HRDI score. In particular, the analyses reveal the countervailing effects of globalization. While economic globalization (i.e., trade and foreign investment) is associated with the technical (positive) end of the HRDI, cultural globalization (i.e., memberships in international organizations) is associated with the institutional (negative) end.     

Rethinking Trade Preferences for Sub‐Saharan Africa: How Can Trade in Tasks Be the Potential Lifeline?

Policy‐related discussion on assisting countries to make use of trade preferences tends to focus on the provision of hard infrastructure to facilitate external economies from modern‐sector exports. This is as opposed to harnessing potential knowledge spillovers. This omission is emblematic of tensions within new trade/new growth theory. Using two country case studies in Asia – Bangladesh and Cambodia – this article shows how different approaches towards making use of trade preferences have resulted in divergent industrial structures and firm‐level technological capability indicators. Less stringent rules of origin requirements may offer new opportunities for late industrialisers in sub‐Saharan Africa to tap into the modern export sector, but a more interventionist approach towards harnessing knowledge spillovers may also be necessary.     

SouthNorth Materials Flow: History and Environmental Repercussions

The current literature on the relationship between income and environmental quality is dominated by a notion of an inverted 'U'-shaped curve between both variables. However, a key variable is missing in this kind of study: the extra-territorial environmental effects of national economies. International trade of raw materials may be a good proxy to estimate these 'environmental load displacement' effects. The present work tries to elucidate some patterns in the relationship between economic growth in affluent countries and the quantity of non-renewable materials imported from less-developed countries. The results indicate that a general de-linking between economic growth and Southern resource consumption is not occurring in the industrialized world. Thus, developed countries may be increasingly displacing the environmental costs associated with material throughput to poorer regions of the world.     

Measuring the Quality of Bank Regulation and Supervision with an Application to Transition Economies

This study develops a methodology to evaluate the quality of the legal aspect of bank regulation and supervision (RS). We use both the Basle guidelines and the letter of banking laws to form an extensive set of criteria to evaluate banking laws. As an application, we provide measures of RS for 23 transition economies. Our measurements indicate that legal banking reforms in Poland, Hungary, and Estonia have been more ambitious than the rest of the countries in transition. Controlling for various other relevant factors, empirical evidence reveals a significant positive relationship between RS and real GDP growth in transition economies.     

Nursing Home Deficiency Citations for Safety

Deficiency citations for safety violations in U.S. nursing homes from 2000 to 2007 are examined (representing a panel of 119,472 observations). Internal (i.e., operating characteristics of the facility), organizational factors (i.e., characteristics of the facility itself), and external factors (i.e., characteristics outside of the influence of the organization) associated with these deficiency citations are examined. The findings show that nursing homes increasingly receive deficiency citations for resident safety issues. Low staffing levels, poor quality of care, and an unfavorable Medicaid mix (occupancy and reimbursement) are associated with the likelihood of receiving deficiency citations for safety violations. In many cases, this likely influences the quality of life and quality of care of residents.