Comments on ``Coverage of the Population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis' and ``Demographic comparison between self-response and personal visit interview in Census 2000', Population Research and Policy Review,Special Issue: Census 2000

Population Research and Policy Review -     

中国2000年人口普查的几个问题研究

本文首先指出,中国２０００年的人口普查,是中国人口普查所而临的首次世纪之交的人口普查,因此,是一次具有重要时代意义的人口普查。论文着重对人口普查资料的应用与发展,人口普查资料的发布,以及人口普查资料发布的规范与管理问题,进行了深入讨论。指出,人口普查资料的发布,应包括重要国情指标的发布,并强调国情指标的发布,应由国家统计局纳入统一规范与管理。     

Comparison of Census 2000 and American Community Survey 1999–2001 Estimates: San Francisco and Tulare Counties, California

Data from the United States 2000 decennial census long form sample is compared to the U.S. Census Bureau’s fledgling American Community Survey (ACS) that was designed to replace the census long form in 2010. This article concentrates on two California counties, San Francisco and Tulare, which were part of the demonstration phase of the ACS. These counties are described and an overall comparison of the demographic, social, economic, and housing variables is presented. The project data and measures of census and survey quality such as self-response rates and nonresponse rates are displayed and discussed. Differences in the census and survey results are noted in the context of statistically significant and meaningful differences. Finally, strategies for analyzing and using ACS data are suggested.     

Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

瑞士2000年人口普查的事后调查及其对我国的启示

瑞士首次在2000年人口普查后进行了事后调查。本文介绍这次事后调查样本的抽取、数据的采集、对人口普查时点人口数及其方差的估计。     

2000年人口普查基层调查的特点--中国和美国的比较

2000年中国和美国进行了20世纪最后一次人口普查.本文利用作者参与实际普查的经验,分析了两国人口普查基层调查的相同和不同点.两国政府都高度重视人口普查,有专门的机构负责选聘普查员,计划、组织和实施入口普查.但普查的组织、具体的实施、和人们对普查的态度却有所不同.例如,在填写普查问卷时,两国普查员使用不同的普查底册,调查项数、方法有所不同,面对的普查人群也不一样.为今后的普查工作,两国可以、也应该相互借鉴各自的普查经验.     

对第五次人口普查年龄结构数据的评估与调整

根据 1 982年、 1 990年人口普查资料和中国统计年鉴数据 ,运用人口存活分析方法、人口目标分析方法对我国第五次人口普查年龄结构数据进行分析、评估和调整 ,以期对深入研究“五普”数据提供参考。     

Trajectories of Fertility and Household Composition in the Demographic Profile of the Czech Republic

The household composition matrix is a representation of the demographic structure of households, specific to age groups of household members and household heads. As such, the matrix reflects also the environmental conditions, housing in particular, that mould households' demographic structure. By specifically depicting the presence of children in households, household composition could be viewed as gauging fertility within the context of housing conditions. This stance is examined in an application to Czech census data for the year 1991, at the commencement of an intense process of socio-economic transformation that accompanied the collapse of communism across Eastern Europe. Within this process, housing had an inadvertent impact upon the structure of households in general, and upon fertility decline in particular. By using the standard matrix representation of household composition, correspondence between trajectories of age-specific fertility and household composition emerge throughout the Czech Republic. This correspondence illustrates the potential household composition analysis carries for fertility measurement and estimation in rapidly changing economic environments.     

名籍、户籍、编户齐民——试论春秋战国时期户籍制度的起源

户籍制度是随着国家的形成而产生的一种社会制度,是国家对人民实行道德教化、经济剥削、人身控制的重要途径。春秋中晚期以前,宗族制度是统治者控制社会的有效手段,完整意义上的户籍制度并不存在,社会组织形态表现为“以丁为户”的名籍;春秋以后,随着血缘关系被地缘关系所取代,宗法政治逐渐转化为郡县政治,“以户定籍”的户籍逐步确立,并在战国时期形成了在中国社会延续了两千余年的编户齐民制度。     

中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。     

1964～2005年我国人口受教育状况的变动——基于人口普查/抽查资料的分析

人口受教育状况通常被当作衡量某一国家或地区社会经济发展状况的重要指标。利用全国人口普查或抽查资料,运用趋势分析和队列分析方法,分析1964~2005年间我国人口受教育状况的变动情况;1982~2005年间分性别、分城乡人口受教育状况的变动情况;不同年代出生人口的受教育状况的变动情况。结果发现,我国人口平均受教育年限逐步提高,教育基尼系数逐渐降低,男女之间的教育差距逐步缩小,但城乡之间的差距继续扩大。每个队列人口平均受教育年限均有所提高,且各队列人口取得了不同方式和不同程度的"进步",其中既有年龄效应作用的结果,也有队列和时期效应作用的结果。     

西藏人口受教育程度的结构差异问题及其对策研究--基于六普数据的分析

运用2010年全国六次人口普查数据,对西藏自治区人口受教育程度有关方面的地域分布、性别分布、年龄分布、行业分布、城乡分布等结构差异问题进行了概括和分析。文章认为,西藏人口受教育程度的结构差异所造成的社会张力需通过具有针对性的人口文化教育结构优化对策来加以解决,进而化解西藏人口文化素质的制约性因素,从根本上扭转西藏教育发展的人口结构性困境。     

农户家庭人口特征与健康投资——基于四川阆中的农户调查分析

利用大样本农户调查数据,分析不同家庭人口特征下农户的健康投资水平。结果发现：家庭性别比例对农户健康投资水平的影响不具有显著性：而家庭人口规模、家庭代际分布和家庭人口负担时农户健康投资水平都具有显著影响;户整体健康投资水平随着人口规模的扩大不断提高。但户人均健康投资水平却呈现相反的趋势：户健康投资水平随着农户家庭代际数的增加而提高;轻负担家庭农卢的健康投资水平最高,纯劳动力家庭农户健康投资水平最低。文章最后提出了有关政策建议。     

Changes in the earnings of Arab men in the US between 2000 and 2002

Using public-use microdata samples from the American Community Survey, we find that Middle Eastern Arab men and Afghan, Iranian, and Pakistani men experienced a significant earnings decline relative to non-Hispanic whites between 2000 and 2002. Further analyses based on the Juhn–Murphy–Pierce wage decomposition technique as well as quantile regression indicate that this earnings decline is not explained by changes in the structure of wages or in observable characteristics beyond ethnicity. Our interpretation is that the unanticipated events of September 11th, 2001 negatively affected the labor-market income of the groups most closely associated with the ethnicity of the terrorists.

我国人口与经济增长稳定关系的实证分析（1953-2000）

改革开放前,我国人口数量和人口密度的增加推动了经济增长,人口与经济增长具有长期稳定关系;改革开放后,大部分地区的人口逐渐趋向于成为经济增长中的一个外生变量。在1953-2000年间,我国经济发展相对落后地区(以西藏为代表)的人口与经济增长存在长期稳定关系,人口数量和人口密度的增加对经济增长有正的效应。总体来看,在我国经济发展的较低阶段,人口与经济增长一般存在长期稳定关系,但当经济发展到较高阶段时,人口与经济增长可能不存在稳定关系。     

刍议我国失业统计与国际标准的比较

当今世界,困扰全球经济和社会发展的最主要问题之一便是失业。对一国的失业统计不仅能反映其失业和就业水平,同时还可成为各国政府制定各项宏观经济政策的重要依据。本文针对我国近几年来失业现象较为严重而失业率却很小的矛盾,分析了我国失业统计与国际标准的差异,并对我国失业统计提出改进意见。     

Internal labor markets and the effects of structural change: Job mobility in Korean labor markets between 1998 and 2000

This study examines job mobility in Korean labor markets since the 1997 economic crisis. The rising job mobility in Korea is analyzed by focusing on structural change in labor markets. Using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study and discrete-time event history analysis, I estimate the job-stabilizing effects of internal labor markets and the effects of structural change on job mobility. The major findings are as follows: First, I found that internal labor markets were weakening between 1998 and 2000. Second, the job-stabilizing effects of internal labor markets on job mobility diminished between 1998 and 2000. Finally, the magnitude of the effects of internal labor markets on job mobility was contingent on the level of structural change. The effect of internal labor markets on job mobility was stronger in turbulent or contracting industries. This effect, however, also became weaker over time. The implications for Korean labor markets are discussed.