Using Prior Risk‐Related Knowledge to Support Risk Management Decisions: Lessons Learnt from a Tunneling Project

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site‐ and project‐ specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk‐related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk‐related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk‐related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic‐causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are discussed.     

Computer literacy: It's time to “get back to basics”

This paper argues the need for a back-to-basics approach in computer literacy education. It then presents such an approach. This approach has worked well both in courses designed for majors in computer science and in information systems, as well as in a course designed for nonmajors. The current view of literacy as indicated by courses taught at universities and in industry around the country is that literacy means learning about the computer (lots of terminology) and learning to use microcomputer application packages. It might include a glimpse of programming, but the feeling seems to be that computer users do not need to understand more than packages. We contend that the current approach is not literacy, does not prepare users to use the computer effectively, that the function of the universities is not to teach skills, and that such skills are in fact taught more efficiently if understanding that is true literacy, precedes the teaching of skills.     

Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk

Individuals’ perceptions and their interpersonal communication about a risk event, or risk talk, can play a significant role in the formation of societal responses to the risk event. As they formulate their risk opinions and speak to others, risk information can circulate through their social networks and contribute to the construction of their risk information environment. In the present study, Japanese citizens’ risk perception and risk talk were examined in the context of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear radiation risk. We hypothesized and found that the risk information environment and risk literacy (i.e., competencies to understand and use risk information) interact to influence their risk perception and risk talk. In particular, risk literacy tends to stabilize people's risk perceptions and their risk communications. Nevertheless, there were some subtle differences between risk perception and communication, suggesting the importance of further examination of interpersonal risk communication and its role in the societal responses to risk events.     

Value of Formalization for Women Entrepreneurs in Developing Contexts: A Review and Research Agenda

Formalization is constantly being proposed as being of great benefit to business expansion and success. This claim, however, has not been previously tested through a review of the empirical evidence, especially in relation to the large number of women in the developing world that operate in the informal economy. Therefore, the aim of this review is to systematize the current empirical evidence on gender, the informal economy and formalization, using a narrative synthesis of 76 papers. The papers were analysed along three main analytical themes – identity, institutions, and constraints and preferences – highlighting their conceptualization in studies of different academic disciplines – economics, sociology, entrepreneurship and development. The review calls for more accurate accounts of formalization decisions by widening the lens through which formalization decisions are conceptualized. These should take account of the rich contextual and temporal dimensions central to these decisions, and recognize that gender alone is not a sufficient factor in explaining women's choices in the informal economy. The review also highlights limitations in relation to the limited conceptual and empirical evidence on which development priorities such as formalization are set. The authors propose a research agenda centred on the need for conceptual frameworks that are more sensitive towards the multidimensional contexts of women's choices.     

A generic accounting model to support operations management decisions

Information systems are generally unable to generate information about the financial consequences of operations management decisions. This is because the procedures for determining the relevant accounting information for decision support are not formalised in ways that can be implemented in information systems. This paper describes a formalised procedure, which is based on the following theoretical propositions: (i) cost behaviour is described on the basis of a company's contracts for purchasing and selling resources, and (ii) hierarchical relationships between decisions are recognised, because some decisions have to be made earlier than others. Earlier decisions determine the feasible alternatives for later decisions (e.g. through constraints in available production capacity or components), and the plans that supported the earlier decisions serve as instructions for later decisions. The procedure can be implemented in information systems to provide accounting information in case later decisions deviate from these instruc tions (within the limits of the real-world constraints) because new information becomes available.     

大型工程建设项目组织综合集成模式

针对大型工程项目组织现状,应用系统论和综合集成方法,提出了工程项目组织基本原理图。构建了项目组织的十元组模型和十纬度集成理论,并对维度进行分析和归约。在此基础上,建立了工程项目组织集成的逻辑框架、结构框架、运作机制和运作框架,以及集成的组织中人力资源的配置方案,进而提出了宜组织的概念。最后将其应用于工程项目实践中,验证证实取得较好效果。这一大型工程项目组织综合集成模式同样也适合特大型工程项目的组织构造,具有较强的理论先进性和使用价值。     

E‐Procurement Infusion and Operational Process Impacts in MRO Procurement: Complementary or Substitutive Effects?

The procurement of maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) goods has remained a relatively understudied topic in the literature. Though vital cost efficiencies can be extracted from procurement processes through investments in e‐procurement systems, there is little empirical work that addresses how such systems should be deployed within organizations. In this study, we focus on the role of e‐procurement systems in MRO procurement and study two critical aspects of infusion. The first dimension captures the depth of e‐procurement use within the procurement function, while the second dimension depicts the breadth of use. We argue that these two dimensions of e‐procurement use, and their interaction, will be related to the performance of the MRO procurement process. Using survey data from 193 service organizations and structural equation modeling techniques, we show that the two infusion dimensions are significantly associated with improved process performance. Additionally, we show a substantial substitutive effect between the two use dimensions on performance. Our work has significant implications for managers who seek to gain efficiencies by the deployment of Internet‐based technologies within operational processes. Our conceptualization of e‐procurement infusion along two dimensions provides a more fine‐grained analysis of performance benefits accruing from the infusion of information technologies within organizations.     

An examination of the strategic and operational impact of global sourcing on UK small firms

This paper presents three in-depth case studies of UK small manufacturers from the electronics manufacturing industry with global supply chains. There is no overlap in products, suppliers or customers and over time, each has developed a distinct and different strategy for managing an extended supply chain. The outcomes and experiences though are not markedly different. The operational challenges they encounter around quality and delivery, as well as the strategic dimensions of information asymmetry and capability fit are discussed. The study identifies the financial risks the firms are exposed to, the constraints to innovation and the wider strategic implications for long-term business performance.     

卖空制度、流动性与信息不对称问题研究———香港市场的个案

应用香港市场的案例, 研究了引入卖空制度后个股的交易活跃程度、流动性、波动性与信息不对称的变化, 提出了噪声交易者假说, 即引入卖空制度后重要的变化是噪声交易者会出于对更高亏损可能的担心而退出交易或变得谨慎.实证结果发现:引入卖空制度会带来交易活跃程度下降、流动性下降以及信息不对称水平升高.同时, 通过对知情交易概率(PIN)的分析发现, 在引入卖空制度后, PIN值确实呈现出显著升高的趋势, 而使其升高的因素就是噪声交易者参与程度降低.噪声交易者假说较好地解释了上述现象.     

Confidentiality Constraints Within Mergers and Acquisitions: Gaining Insights Through a ‘Bubble’ Metaphor*

Mergers and acquisitions are extremely sensitive, both within and outside the organizations involved. Confidentiality agreements are therefore essential for allowing teams the ‘space’ to develop potential scenarios for future integration. Despite the importance of confidentiality in practice, the subject has received little coverage in the management literature. By adopting a case‐study approach, this research explores aspects of confidentiality in a four‐year post‐acquisition integration programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical company. The paper identifies a range of personal impacts on the signatories, as well as various dimensions of information transfer despite the agreement being in place. Through the use of a metaphor, the research suggests that a confidentiality agreement has many similarities with the properties and characteristics of a bubble. This bubble trope is used to enhance conceptual understanding of confidentiality constraints in an organizational‐change context. The paper concludes by suggesting some ‘key learnings’ in relation to using confidentiality agreements in strategic change programmes such as a merger or acquisition.     

Dimensions and design criteria for developing training reaction evaluations

Although there is research on training program evaluation, there is little systematic research on the design, development and use of training reaction evaluations. In order to obtain meaningful information from a program evaluation, evaluation professionals must be rigorous in the design and development of all aspects of an evaluation study, including instrumentation. The purposes of the study were to classify the dimensions of information sought using reaction evaluations and to establish design criteria for developing training reaction instruments. There were three major phases of the study: (1) classification of the dimensions and questionnaire design criteria used in reaction evaluations; (2) validation of the classified dimensions and the questionnaire design criteria by subject matter experts; and (3) assessment of a sample of training reaction instruments currently used in training programs in US corporations. The research findings were: eleven dimensions for reaction evaluation were identified and classified by purpose. Five overall design criteria, each consisting of several sub-criteria, were judged important in the design of reactionnaires. These include: introduction and directions; question format; question construction; questionnaire layout; and data analysis. It was concluded that a well-designed training reaction instrument integrates the proper application of design criteria with appropriate reaction dimensions. Most training reaction instruments used by US corporations consisted of questions representing only a few dimensions. The instruments varied in form and length. Few of them properly utilized the established questionnaire design criteria.     

Towards more sustainable debt attitudes and behaviors: the importance of basic economic skills

This research builds on the idea that debt-related financial distress faced by an individual results primarily from the inability to understand and apply fundamental economic concepts to debt decisions rather than from a lack of highly specific financial knowledge. This notion offers a potential explanation for why current financial literacy programs, which generally focus on the latter aspect, are considered to be mostly ineffective. We hypothesize that the understanding of fundamental economic concepts plays an essential role in explaining debt attitudes and behaviors. To test this hypothesis, we empirically examine how basic economic skills relate to these traits among German adolescents while controlling for their levels of financial literacy. Our results indicate that basic economic skills beneficially relate to both individual debt attitudes and behaviors. In contrast, we do not find a significant impact of financial literacy. Therefore, a stronger consideration of fundamental economic concepts in financial literacy programs might be a fruitful way to increase their effectiveness.     

Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects

Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost‐effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief‐networks‐based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk‐related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures.     

Collaborative Product Development: The Effect of Project Complexity on the Use of Information Technology Tools and New Product Development Practices

Collaboration is an essential element of new product development (NPD). This research examines the associations between four types of information technology (IT) tools and NPD collaboration. The relationships between NPD practices and NPD collaboration are also examined. Drawing on organizational information processing theory, we propose that the relationships between IT tools and NPD collaboration will be moderated differently by three project complexity dimensions, namely, product size, project novelty, and task interdependence, due to the differing nature of information processing necessitated by each project complexity dimension. Likewise, the moderation effects of the project complexity dimensions on the relationship between NPD practices and NPD collaboration will also be different. We test our hypotheses using data from a sample of NPD projects in three manufacturing industries. We find that IT tools are associated with collaboration to a greater extent when product size is relatively large. In contrast, IT tools exhibit a smaller association with collaboration when project novelty or task interdependence is relatively high. NPD practices are found to be more significantly associated with NPD collaboration under the contingency of high project novelty or high task interdependence. The findings provide insights about circumstances where several popular IT tools are more likely to facilitate collaboration, thus informing an NPD team's IT adoption and use decisions.     

A slacks-based inefficiency measure for a two-stage system with bad outputs

We model the performance of DMUs (decision-making units) using a two-stage network model. In the first stage of production DMUs use inputs to produce an intermediate output that becomes an input to a second stage where final outputs are produced. Previous black box DEA models allowed for non-radial scaling of outputs and inputs and accounted for slacks in the constraints that define the technology. We extend these models and build a performance measure that accounts for a network structure of production. We use our method to estimate the performance of Japanese banks, which use labor, physical capital, and financial equity capital in a first stage to produce an intermediate output of deposits. In the second stage, those deposits become an input in the production of loans and securities investments. The network estimates reveal greater bank inefficiency than do the estimates that treat the bank production process as a black box with all production taking place in a single stage.     

THE WELFARE GAINS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND HETEROGENEITY

Research has shown that, absent individual heterogeneity and under complete markets, the welfare impact of financial openness is quantitatively limited. Not only are inequalities in wealth and labor productivity a feature of most societies, but also financial markets suffer from many well‐known frictions. This paper demonstrates that, when households face borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to income, the welfare implications of financial liberalization are considerable. For instance, the average increase in welfare of a typical emerging market economy that switches from a closed capital market to perfect capital mobility is equivalent to a permanent increase in average consumption of roughly 5.4%. This is about 3.9 times more than the welfare gains of the same policy under a complete markets environment without any individual heterogeneity. We show that individual heterogeneity accounts for two thirds of this additional increase in the average welfare gain; market incompleteness accounts for the remaining third. In our calibration, the median household in capital‐scarce countries is in favor of international financial integration. However, if the pivotal voter is wealthy enough then such reform might not be implemented, since richer households have a vested interest in capital market closedness.     

On flexible product-mix decision problems under randomness and fuzziness

This paper considers several models of product-mix decision problems and production planning problems under uncertain conditions, and shows that these are extensional and versatile models for resolving previous product-mix problems. These proposed models include randomness derived from statistical analysis based on historical data, ambiguity of decision maker's intuition and the quality of received information, and flexibility in accomplishing the original plan. Furthermore, given that the upper limit values of some constraints have flexibility, and given a decision maker's level of satisfaction, we propose a flexible product mix of problems using the theory of constraints (TOC), and develop an efficient solution method. We then provide a numerical example that compares our models with some previous basic models. Efficiency of flexibility is obtained when our proposed models are applied to several conditions, such as measurable changes from the expected value of future returns.     

Integrating MRP and finite capacity planning

Traditional production control systems based on the manufacturing resource planning concept do not sufficiently support the planner in solving capacity problems, ignore capacity constraints and assume that lead times are fixed. This leads to problems on the shop floor, that cannot be resolved in the short term. This paper focuses on solving these capacity problems by improving capacity planning at the material requirements planning MRP level through integration of MRP and finite capacity planning. This results in a planning method for simultaneous capacity and material planning. The planning method is based on a new and more accurate primary process model, giving the planning algorithm more flexibility in solving capacity problems. The algorithm is based on advanced scheduling techniques and uses aggregated information, thus combining speed and accuracy. The algorithm is designed to use the available flexibility: alternative routeings, safety stock, and replanning of production orders and requirements. This paper also discusses such related issues as robustness, memory and the role of the human planner.     

Corporate governance and board accounts: exploring a neglected interface between boards of directors and management

There is an absence of research about what information boards of directors have access to and how they use that information. The purpose of this paper is to explore and theorize about the content and use of information to boards of directors. The paper introduces and elaborates on the concept of ‘board accounts’, which is defined as the information supplied to boards of directors by top-management. The paper locates the board accounts in the Swedish institutional setting and demonstrates how the concept can be operationalized in an empirical setting. On the basis of a unique material of archived board records in a Swedish company, the paper explores the board accounts over a period of 10 years (1989–1998). It is found that while use of the board accounts in the case study company changes considerably over time, the content of the board accounts remains largely unchanged. This raises questions about where and when directors receive information, the reliability of the information in the board accounts, and recent attempts to integrate corporate governance and management accounting (CIMA, Performance reporting to boards: a guide to good practice, 2003; CIMA strategic scorecard: boards engaging in strategy, 2005; Seal, Management Accounting Research 17(4):389–408, 2006). Finally, the paper discusses the merits of historical archive-based approaches in this field and possibilities for future research.