技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述

实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF) 更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策 问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估 价. 根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一 般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法. 侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物 期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.     

期权定价理论在企业循环经济项目投资决策中的应用

B-S期权定价理论是现代金融理论最重要的成果之一,它在金融投资领域获得了巨大成功,也为企业进行投资决策分析提供了新的思路和评价方法.本文将B-S期权定价理论引入企业循环经济项目投资决策分析中,以弥补传统决策方法存在的不足.     

期权定价理论在公司理财中的应用

期权是一种典型的衍生金融工具,在很多公司融资活动以及投资决策中,都包含着期权的特征。将期权定价理论应用到公司投资决策中,则可以克服净现值法的缺陷,充分发挥公司管理层的决策灵活性。     

基于实物期权法的油气勘探开发投资决策分析

通常油气勘探开发项目的风险性较高,而且投资决策过程极其复杂,在油气勘探开发各阶段存在着多种选择,这种管理的灵活性具有一定的价值。文章在分析传统投资决策评价方法与实物期权法进行类比的基础上,对实物期权理论在油气勘探开发投资决策中的特性进行了分析,评述了现有的国外有关实物期权在油气勘探开发投资决策中的研究特点,并提出了未来可能的主要研究展望。     

竞争环境下基于期权博弈的R&D投资决策研究

论述了企业在竞争环境下的研发投资决策优化问题,利用实物期权的方法,采用二人博弈的模型分析了两家实力均衡的企业在进行研发投资决策时可能采取的策略,有同时投资策略、追随者策略和领先者策略等,并给出各种情况下的最优投资时机.最后结合实证进行了结论验证.     

项目区域投资的期权特征与决策研究

运用期权的观点和方法研究项目区域投资问题具有重要的现实意义.在衡量投资区域机会价值的基础上,分析了项目区域投资的期权特征,建立了项目区域投资决策的实物期权模型,为实际中的多区域投资决策问题提供了一种量化分析方法.     

基于中小板企业项目投资的实物期权方法实证研究

传统投资决策方法往往会低估投资项目的价值,实物期权方法因更充分考虑不确定性和决策柔性的价值而被认为可以弥补传统方法的缺陷.本文通过对中小板企业投资项目的分析对此进行了验证,结果表明实物期权方法比NPV法能够更好地解释股票市场反应和更加准确地体现项目投资的价值.     

不对称双寡头企业技术创新投资决策研究

许多研究技术创新投资决策的期权博弈文献忽视了企业之间的投资成本和经营成本的不对称性,本文研究成本不对称双寡头企业技术创新投资决策问题。首先,导出企业投资收益函数和投资临界值。接着对存在的三种均衡,即抢占均衡、序列均衡和同时投资均衡进行了分析讨论,结果表明,成本不对称程度较小和先动优势不大情况下,企业将同时投资;当先动优势较大的情况下,低成本企业将先投资成为领先者;当企业成本不对称程度很大时,企业将序列执行投资期权。最后,结合案例进行数值计算,验证了理论分析结果。     

基于技术创新投资决策的实物期权运用

将实物期权的价值评估方式运用到企业技术创新的投资决策中,充分考虑不确定性因素,并建立决策原则,一方面扩展了实物期权在技术创新项目评估价值中的应用,另一方面解决了企业是进行自主技术创新还是外购技术的难题。     

基于实物期权的新技术投资决策实证研究

本文基于对我国高新技术企业的实际调研,从实物期权视角检验不同类型不确定性对企业新技术投资决策的影响。研究结果表明,市场与政策不确定性对投资的延迟作用与技术不确定性对投资的促进作用得到不同程度验证,而竞争强度与投资不可逆程度对不确定性与投资关系的调节作用则不完全符合实物期权的理论预期。论文结果揭示了我国高新技术企业进行投资决策的一般规律,可为企业应用实物期权方法提供参考。     

Three simple steps to determine optimum plant capacity

Plant investment decisions are frequently crowded with folk-lore, even though basic economics may provide a ready guide to optimum capacity.Increasing emphasis on corporate accountability is producing the need to accept a more numerate approach to business decision taking while the overall scope for off-the-cuff decisions is rapidly diminishing. One important area of business decision taking concerns plant investment and in this paper an approximation routine is outlined for determining by economic analysis the optimum plant size for new ventures. Attention is also drawn to the importance of organization structure for investment planning.     

现金之误:熊市投资新思维

要把握好熊市中的投资机会,进行大手笔的并购,一味将"现金"攥在手中,可能坐失良机从去年宏观商业环境恶化、市场走熊以来,"现金为王"、"现金流至上"可能是企业决策者听得最多的概念,也被很多企业决策者奉为圭臬。     

我国财务危机公司投资行为的财务特征分析

在引入一个简化的理性财务危机公司投资模型的基础上,论文分析了企业陷入财务危机后,债权人与债务人之间在期权博弈过程中,企业在投资策略的选择上会偏离正常的投资行为的财务特征。在此基础上,重点分析了我国经济转轨时期财务危机公司严重地过度投资和在债务重组过程中的盲目性、短期性和功利性及其形成的主要原因。企业的过度投资是内部人控制和银行债权弱化的具体体现,虚假的债务重组是将危机转嫁给企业债权人的真正动因。     

Understanding the transgenerational orientation of family businesses: the role of family governance and business family identity

The development of a transgenerational orientation is one of the most significant challenges that family businesses face and only a small number actually survive across generations. While prior research has focused on the business unit to provide us with a solid understanding of how corporate governance affects business performance and continuity, the role of the business family in the development of a transgenerational orientation has received less attention. To address this gap, this article applies a new systems and social identity theory framework to examine how family governance and business family identity can contribute to strengthening the transgenerational orientation of the business. A transgenerational orientation is defined as a decision premise to maintain the family’s control over the business across generations. Using a large data set, findings show that the presence of family governance measures and the business family’s identity are positively related to a transgenerational orientation of the business, with business family identity acting as a mediator. Thus, the development of family governance measures can foster communication within the business family and enhance the family members’ emotional investment in the business which strengthens the transgenerational orientation in the business.     

Generating Explanations for Goal-Based Decision Making*

As information systems make the transition from decision support to decision making, there will be a concomitant need for the programs to explain or justify their actions. Without such explanations, humans will not readily cede authority to a machine. This paper describes an automated decision-making program, VOTE, which generates natural language explanations for its decisions in both English and French. The program domain is Congressional roll call voting. VOTE simulates voting decisions of specific members of the United States House of Representatives on given bills. VOTE's natural language generation facility is also used by the underlying databases to interpret the knowledge representations. These underlying knowledge representations are described and applications of this decision making model to the general business domains of strategic planning, investment, and marketing are suggested.     

风险厌恶零售商考虑信息预测成本的协调机制

在CVaR风险度量准则下,将信息预测成本作为运营成本之一,建立了风险厌恶的零售商的需求信息预测投入和订货量的联合决策随机模型,研究了风险态度对零售商最优决策的影响.通过分析得出在分散决策下,随着零售商风险厌恶程度的增加,零售商提高信息预测水平,以减小需求不确定风险.同时减少订货量,降低订货过量的风险.证明了在一定条件下,传统的收益共享契约能实现供应链协同,但适用范围较小.由信息预测成本分担与收益共享组成的联合契约可扩大供应链协同的范围,消除风险态度和双重边际对零售商决策行为的影响,使得零售商的需求预测水平和订货量同时达到系统风险中立环境下的最优水平.     

Roles and responsibilities of boards of directors revisited in reconciling conflicting stakeholders interests while maintaining corporate responsibility

The article analyses the business of business and comes to the view that the role of business is to balance all stakeholders’ interests while giving relative dominance to the interests of investors, over those of other stakeholders. Based on this understanding, we propose an economic model, which describes the nexus and interactions between the interests of stakeholders, and develops a set of functions aimed at achieving better management of risk through corporate socially responsible (i.e. CSR) investment. The model takes into account the utilities of the corporate officers, short term and long term investors. All three functions are considered by the Board of Directors, who are deemed the final arbiters with respect to firm decision-making and the body to whom executive management owes fiduciary duties. Finally, a decision rule is developed that defines the circumstances under which the Board of Directors will consider to invest corporate funds in CSR.     

考虑背景风险的项目投资决策

在项目投资过程中不但面临项目风险,同时还面临背景风险,且背景风险与项目风险之间往往存在着一定的相关性。文章在已有研究的基础上,针对考虑背景风险的项目投资决策问题,分析了风险之间的相关性及相关程度对投资决策的影响。首先讨论了加性背景风险和乘性背景风险单独存在时,背景风险与项目风险之间的相关性对投资决策的影响;其次构建了两种背景风险同时存在情形下的投资模型,进而通过蒙特卡罗仿真方法给出不同相关程度下的仿真结果,在此基础上分析两种背景风险与项目风险之间的相关性及相关程度对投资决策的影响并给出相关研究结论。     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE BIASING EFFECTS OF FRAMING ON BUSINESS DECISIONS*

This paper presents results of three studies testing whether decision bias due to framing, found in consumer purchase contexts, also would occur in a business setting. In the first study, business-student subjects displayed framing-induced decision bias just as subjects had in an earlier study by Tversky and Kahneman [12]. When the consumer problem was recast into a business decision in the second study, student subjects trained to handle the problem still revealed bias, although to a lesser extent. In the third study, experienced business managers revealed the same pattern of decision bias as the student subjects. Implications of this bias for business decision makers are discussed.