Monitoring means and covariances of multivariate non linear time series with heavy tails

In this paper, the focus is on sequential analysis of multivariate financial time series with heavy tails. The mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate non linear models are simultaneously monitored by modifying conventional control charts to identify structural changes in the data. The considered target process is a constant conditional correlation model (cf. Bollerslev, 1990 Bollerslev, T. (1990). Modeling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: A multivariate generalized ARCH model. Rev. Econ. Stat. 72:498–505.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), an extended constant conditional correlation model (cf. He and Teräsvirta, 2004 He, C., Teräsvirta, T. (2004). An extended constant conditional correlation GARCH model and its fourth-moment structure. Economet. Theory 20:904–926.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), a dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Engle, 2002 Engle, R.F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate GARCH models. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 20(3):339–350.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), or a generalized dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Capiello et al., 2006 Capiello, L., Engle, R., Sheppard, K. (2006). Asymmetric correlations in the dynamics of global equity and bond returns. J. Financial Economet. 4(4):537–572.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). For statistical surveillance we use control charts based on residuals. Further, the procedures are constructed for t-distribution. The detection speed of these charts is compared via Monte Carlo simulation. In the empirical study, the procedure with the best performance is applied to log-returns of the stock market indices FTSE and CAC.     

A stratified unrelated question randomized response model using Neyman allocation

This paper applies stratified random sampling using Neyman allocation to Mangat et al. (1992 Mangat, N.S., Singh, R., Singh, S. (1992). An improved unrelated question randomized response strategy. Cal. Stat. Assoc. Bull. 42:277–281.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) unrelated question randomized response (RR) strategy for both completely truthful reporting and less than completely truthful reporting. It is shown that, for the prior information given, our new model is more efficient in terms of variance (in the case of completely truthful reporting) and mean square error (in terms of less than completely truthful reporting) than Kim and Elam's (2007 Kim, J.M., Elam, M.E. (2007). A stratified unrelated question randomized response model. Stat. Papers 48:215–233.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model. Numerical illustrations and graphs are also given in support of the present study.     

Optimum mixture designs in some constrained experimental regions

In a mixture experiment, the response depends on the mixing proportions of the components present in the mixture. Optimum designs are available for the estimation of parameters of the models proposed in such situations. However, these designs are found to include the vertex points of the simplex Ξ defining the experimental region, which are not mixtures in the true sense. Recently, Mandal et al. (2015 Mandal, N.K., Pal, M., Sinha, B.K., and Das, P. (2015). Optimum mixture designs in a restricted region. Stat. Pap. 56(1):105–119.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) derived optimum designs when the experiment is confined to an ellipsoidal region within Ξ, which does not include the vertices of Ξ. In this paper, an attempt has been made to find optimum designs when the experimental region is a simplex or is cuboidal inside Ξ and does not contain the extreme points.     

An approximation to the convolution of gamma distributions

In general, the exact distribution of a convolution of independent gamma random variables is quite complicated and does not admit a closed form. Of all the distributions proposed, the gamma-series representation of Moschopoulos (1985 Moschopoulos, P. G. (1985). The distribution of the sum of independent gamma random variables. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 37Part A:541–544. [Google Scholar]) is relatively simple to implement but for particular combinations of scale and/or shape parameters the computation of the weights of the series can result in complications with too much time consuming to allow a large-scale application. Recently, a compact random parameter representation of the convolution has been proposed by Vellaisamy and Upadhye (2009 Vellaisamy, P., Upadhye, N. S. (2009). On the sums of compound negative binomial and gamma random variables. Journal of Applied Probability 46:272–283.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and it allows to give an exact interpretation to the weights of the series. They describe an infinite discrete probability distribution. This result suggested to approximate Moschopoulos’s expression looking for an approximating theoretical discrete distribution for the weights of the series. More precisely, we propose a general negative binomial distribution. The result is an “excellent” approximation, fast and simple to implement for any parameter combination.     

Confidence bands for the logistic and probit regression models over intervals

This article presents methods for the construction of two-sided and one-sided simultaneous hyperbolic bands for the logistic and probit regression models when the predictor variable is restricted to a given interval. The bands are constructed based on the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Past articles have considered building two-sided asymptotic confidence bands for the logistic model, such as Piegorsch and Casella (1988 Piegorsch, W.W., Casella, G. (1988). Confidence bands for logistic regression with restricted predictor variables. Biometrics 44:739–750.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, the confidence bands given by Piegorsch and Casella are conservative under a single interval restriction, and it is shown in this article that their bands can be sharpened using the methods proposed here. Furthermore, no method has yet appeared in the literature for constructing one-sided confidence bands for the logistic model, and no work has been done for building confidence bands for the probit model, over a limited range of the predictor variable. This article provides methods for computing critical points in these areas.     

An efficient use of moment's ratios of scrambling variables in a randomized response technique

This paper aimed at providing an efficient new unbiased estimator for estimating the proportion of a potentially sensitive attribute in survey sampling. The suggested randomization device makes use of the means, variances of scrambling variables, and the two scalars lie between “zero” and “one.” Thus, the same amount of information has been used at the estimation stage. The variance formula of the suggested estimator has been obtained. We have compared the proposed unbiased estimator with that of Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimators. Relevant conditions are obtained in which the proposed estimator is more efficient than Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimators. The optimum estimator (OE) in the proposed class of estimators has been identified which finally depends on moments ratios of the scrambling variables. The variance of the optimum estimator has been obtained and compared with that of the Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator. It is interesting to mention that the “optimum estimator” of the class of estimators due to Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) depends on the parameter π under investigation which limits the use of Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) OE in practice while the proposed OE in this paper is free from such a constraint. The proposed OE depends only on the moments ratios of scrambling variables. This is an advantage over the Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator. Numerical illustrations are given in the support of the present study when the scrambling variables follow normal distribution. Theoretical and empirical results are very sound and quite illuminating in the favor of the present study.     

An optional randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution

The crux of this article is to estimate the mean of the number of persons possessing a rare sensitive attribute based on the Mangat (1991 Mangat, N.S. (1991). An optional randomized response sampling technique using non–stigmatized attribute. Statistica. 51(4):595–602. [Google Scholar]) randomization device by utilizing the Poisson distribution in simple random sampling and stratified sampling. Properties of the proposed randomized response (RR) model have been studied along with recommendations. It is also shown that the proposed model is more efficient than that of Land et al. (2011 Land, M., Singh, S., Sedory, S.A. (2011). Estimation of a rare attribute using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 46(3):351–360.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in simple random sampling and that of Lee et al. (2013 Lee, G.S., Uhm, D., Kim, J.M. (2013). Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in stratified sampling using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 47(3):575–589.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in stratified random sampling when the proportion of persons possessing a rare unrelated attribute is known. Numerical illustrations are also given in support of the present study.     

On generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling

Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541–547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have suggested generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase sampling scheme for estimating the finite population mean. However, the bias and mean square error (MSE) expressions presented in that work need some corrections, and consequently the study based on efficiency comparison also requires corrections. In this article, we revisit Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541–547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator and provide the correct bias and MSE expressions of their estimator. We also propose an estimator which is more efficient than several competing estimators including the classes of estimators in Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541–547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Three real datasets are used for efficiency comparisons.     

Complete convergence for coordinatewise asymptotically negatively associated random vectors in Hilbert spaces

In this article, we study the complete convergence for sequences of coordinatewise asymptotically negatively associated random vectors in Hilbert spaces. We also investigate that some related results for coordinatewise negatively associated random vectors in Huan, Quang, and Thuan (2014 Huan, N. V., N. V. Quang, and N. T. Thuan. 2014. Baum–Katz type theorems for coordinatewise negatively associated random vectors in Hilbert spaces. Acta Mathematica Hungarica 144(1):132–419.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) still hold under this concept.     

Intraday Serial Correlation,Volatility, and Jump: Evidence from China's Stock Market

In this article, we investigate the relationships among intraday serial correlation, jump-robust volatility, positive and negative jumps based on Shanghai composite index high frequency data. We implement variance ratio test to quantify intraday serial correlation. We also measure the continuous part of realized volatility using jump-robust MedRV estimator and disentangle positive and negative jumps using Realized Downside Risk Measure and Realized Upside Potential Measure proposed by Bi et al., (2013 Bi, T., Zhang, B., Wu, H. (2013). Measuring downside risk using high frequency data–realized downside risk measure. Communications in Statistics–Simulation and Computation 42(4):741–754.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We find that intraday serial correlation are positively correlated with jump-robust volatility and negatively correlated with negative jumps which confirm the LeBaron effect.     

Ridge estimator with correlated errors and two-stage ridge estimator under inequality restrictions

Liew (1976a Liew, C.K. (1976a). A two-stage least-squares estimation with inequality restrictions on parameters. Rev. Econ. Stat. LVIII(2):234–238.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced generalized inequality constrained least squares (GICLS) estimator and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage least squares estimators by reducing primal–dual relation to problem of Dantzig and Cottle (1967 Dantzig, G.B., Cottle, R.W. (1967). Positive (semi-) definite matrices and mathematical programming. In: Abadie, J., ed. Nonlinear Programming (pp. 55–73). Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co. [Google Scholar]), Cottle and Dantzig (1974 Cottle, R.W., Dantzig, G.B. (1974). Complementary pivot of mathematical programming. In: Dantzig, G.B., Eaves, B.C., eds. Studies in OptimizationVol. 10. Washington: Mathematical Association of America. [Google Scholar]) and solving with Lemke (1962 Lemke, C.E. (1962). A method of solution for quadratic programs. Manage. Sci. 8(4):442–453.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present inequality constrained ridge regression (ICRR) estimator with correlated errors and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage ridge regression estimators in the presence of multicollinearity. Untruncated variance–covariance matrix and mean square error are derived for the ICRR estimator with correlated errors, and its superiority over the GICLS estimator is examined via Monte Carlo simulation.     

Complete moment convergence of moving-average process generated by a class of random variables

In this article, we establish the complete moment convergence of a moving-average process generated by a class of random variables satisfying the Rosenthal-type maximal inequality and the week mean dominating condition. On the one hand, we give the correct proof for the case p = 1 in Ko (2015 Ko, M.H. (2015). Complete moment convergence of moving average process generated by a class of random variables. J. Inequalities Appl. 2015(1):1–9. Article ID 225.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); on the other hand, we also consider the case αp = 1 which was not considered in Ko (2015 Ko, M.H. (2015). Complete moment convergence of moving average process generated by a class of random variables. J. Inequalities Appl. 2015(1):1–9. Article ID 225.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The results obtained in this article generalize some corresponding ones for some dependent sequences.     

The raise estimator estimation,inference, and properties

Several methods using different approaches have been developed to remedy the consequences of collinearity. To the best of our knowledge, only the raise estimator proposed by García et al. (2010 García, C.B., García, J., Soto, J. (2010). The raise method: An alternative procedure to estimate the parameters in presence of collinearity. Qual. Quantity 45(2):403–423.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) deals with this problem from a geometric perspective. This article fully develops the raise estimator for a model with two standardized explanatory variables. Inference in the raise estimator is examined, showing that it can be obtained from ordinary least squares methodology. In addition, contrary to what happens in ridge regression, the raise estimator maintains the coefficient of determination value constant. The expression of the variance inflation factor for the raise estimator is also presented. Finally, a comparative study of the raise and ridge estimators is carried out using an example.     

A combinatorial study of two-periodic random walks

Two-periodic random walks have up-steps and down-steps of one unit as usual, but the probability of an up-step is α after an even number of steps and β = 1 ? α after an odd number of steps, and reversed for down-steps. This concept was studied by Böhm and Hornik^{[2 Böhm, W.; Hornik, K. On two-periodic random walks with boundaries. Stoch. Models 2010, 26, 165–194.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]}. We complement this analysis by using methods from (analytic) combinatorics. By using two steps at once, we can reduce the analysis to the study of Motzkin paths, with up-steps, down-steps, and level-steps. Using a proper substitution, we get the generating functions of interest in an explicit and neat form. The parameters that are discussed here are the (one-sided) maximum (already studied by Böhm and Hornik^{[2 Böhm, W.; Hornik, K. On two-periodic random walks with boundaries. Stoch. Models 2010, 26, 165–194.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]}) and the two-sided maximum. For the asymptotic evaluation of the average value of the two-sided maximum after n random steps, more sophisticated methods from complex analysis (Mellin transform, singularity analysis) are required. The approach to transfer the analysis to Motzkin paths is, of course, not restricted to the two parameters under consideration.     

On extreme order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions with applications

This paper treats the problem of stochastic comparisons for the extreme order statistics arising from heterogeneous beta distributions. Some sufficient conditions involved in majorization-type partial orders are provided for comparing the extreme order statistics in the sense of various magnitude orderings including the likelihood ratio order, the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, and the usual multivariate stochastic order. The results established here strengthen and extend those including Kochar and Xu (2007 Kochar, S.C., Xu, M. (2007). Stochastic comparisons of parallel systems when components have proportional hazard rates. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 21:597–609.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Mao and Hu (2010 Mao, T., Hu, T. (2010). Equivalent characterizations on orderings of order statistics and sample ranges. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 24:245–262.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Balakrishnan et al. (2014 Balakrishnan, N., Barmalzan, G., Haidari, A. (2014). On usual multivariate stochastic ordering of order statistics from heterogeneous beta variables. J. Multivariate Anal. 127:147–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Torrado (2015 Torrado, N. (2015). On magnitude orderings between smallest order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 426:824–838.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A real application in system assembly and some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Some extensions of circular balanced and circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs

Repeated measurement designs are widely used in medicine, pharmacology, animal sciences, and psychology. In this paper the works of Iqbal and Tahir (2009 Iqbal, I., and M. H. Tahir. 2009. Circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 38:3686–96.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Iqbal, Tahir, and Ghazali (2010 Iqbal, I., M. H. Tahir, and S. S. A. Ghazali. 2010. Circular first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 39:228–40.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) are generalized for the construction of circular-balanced and circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs through the method of cyclic shifts for three periods.     

Darling-Erdös-type test for change detection in parameters and variance for stationary VAR models

The aim of this article is the construction of the test statistic for the detection of changes in vector autoregressive (AR) models where both AR parameters and the variance matrix of the error term are the subjects of a change. The approximating distribution of the proposed statistic is the Gumbel distribution. The proof stands on the approximation of weakly dependent random vectors by independent ones and by application of Horváth’s extension of Darling-Erdös extremal result for random vectors, see Darling and Erdös (1956) Darling, D.A., Erdös, P. (1956). A limit theorem for the maximum of normalized sums of independent random variables. Duke Math. J. 23:143–155.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and Horváth (1993) Horváth, L. (1993). The maximum likelihood method for testing changes in the parameters of normal observations. Ann. Stat. 21(2):671–680.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. The test statistic is a modification of the likelihood ratio.     

A new estimator of finite population mean based on the dual use of the auxiliary information

When a sufficient correlation between the study variable and the auxiliary variable exists, the ranks of the auxiliary variable are also correlated with the study variable, and thus, these ranks can be used as an effective tool in increasing the precision of an estimator. In this paper, we propose a new improved estimator of the finite population mean that incorporates the supplementary information in forms of: (i) the auxiliary variable and (ii) ranks of the auxiliary variable. Mathematical expressions for the bias and the mean-squared error of the proposed estimator are derived under the first order of approximation. The theoretical and empirical studies reveal that the proposed estimator always performs better than the usual mean, ratio, product, exponential-ratio and -product, classical regression estimators, and Rao (1991 Rao, T.J. (1991). On certail methods of improving ration and regression estimators. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 20(10):3325–3340.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Singh et al. (2009 Singh, R., Chauhan, P., Sawan, N., Smarandache, F. (2009). Improvement in estimating the population mean using exponential estimator in simple random sampling. Int. J. Stat. Econ. 3(A09):13–18. [Google Scholar]), Shabbir and Gupta (2010 Shabbir, J., Gupta, S. (2010). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 40(2):199–212.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Grover and Kaur (2011 Grover, L.K., Kaur, P. (2011). An improved estimator of the finite population mean in simple random sampling. Model Assisted Stat. Appl. 6(1):47–55. [Google Scholar], 2014) estimators.     

The Combined Model: A Tool for Simulating Correlated Counts with Overdispersion

The combined model as introduced by Molenberghs et al. (2007 Molenberghs, G., Verbeke, G., Demétrio, C. (2007). An extended random-effects approach to modeling repeated, overdispersed count data. Lifetime Data Analysis 13:513–531.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2010 Molenberghs, G., Verbeke, G., Demétrio, C., Vieira, A. (2010). A family of generalized linear models for repeated measures with normal and conjugate random effects. Statistical Science 25:325–347.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) has been shown to be an appealing tool for modeling not only correlated or overdispersed data but also for data that exhibit both these features. Unlike techniques available in the literature prior to the combined model, which use a single random-effects vector to capture correlation and/or overdispersion, the combined model allows for the correlation and overdispersion features to be modeled by two sets of random effects. In the context of count data, for example, the combined model naturally reduces to the Poisson-normal model, an instance of the generalized linear mixed model in the absence of overdispersion and it also reduces to the negative-binomial model in the absence of correlation. Here, a Poisson model is specified as the parent distribution of the data conditional on a normally distributed random effect at the subject or cluster level and/or a gamma distribution at observation level. Importantly, the development of the combined model and surrounding derivations have relevance well beyond mere data analysis. It so happens that the combined model can also be used to simulate correlated data. If a researcher is interested in comparing marginal models via Monte Carlo simulations, a necessity to generate suitable correlated count data arises. One option is to induce correlation via random effects but calculation of such quantities as the bias is then not straightforward. Since overdispersion and correlation are simultaneous features of longitudinal count data, the combined model presents an appealing framework for generating data to evaluate statistical properties, through a pre-specification of the desired marginal mean (possibly in terms of the covariates and marginal parameters) and a marginal variance-covariance structure. By comparing the marginal mean and variance of the combined model to the desired or pre-specified marginal mean and variance, respectively, the implied hierarchical parameters and the variance-covariance matrices of the normal and Gamma random effects are then derived from which correlated Poisson data are generated. We explore data generation when a random intercept or random intercept and slope model is specified to induce correlation. The data generator, however, allows for any dimension of the random effects although an increase in the random-effects dimension increases the sensitivity of the derived random effects variance-covariance matrix to deviations from positive-definiteness. A simulation study is carried out for the random-intercept model and for the random intercept and slope model, with or without the normal and Gamma random effects. We also pay specific attention to the case of serial correlation.     

An Approximation Model of the Collective Risk Model with INAR(1) Claim Process

Cossette et al. (2010 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Maume-Deschamps, V. (2010). Discerte-time risk models based on time series for count random variables. ASTIN Bull. 40:123–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2011 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Toureille, F. (2011). risk models based on time series for count random variables. Insur. Math. Econ. 48:19–28.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) gave a novel collective risk model where the total numbers of claims satisfy the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process. For a risk model, it is interesting to investigate the upper bound of ruin probability. However, the loss increments of the above model are dependent; it is difficult to derive the upper bound of ruin probability. In this article, we propose an approximation model with stationary independent increments. The upper bound of ruin probability and the adjustment coefficient are derived. The approximation model is illustrated via four simulated examples. Results show that the gap of the approximation model and dependent model can be ignored by adjusting values of parameters.