Empirical likelihood confidence bands for distribution functions with missing responses

Distribution function estimation plays a significant role of foundation in statistics since the population distribution is always involved in statistical inference and is usually unknown. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the distribution function of a response variable Y with missing responses in the regression problems. It is proved that the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator converges weakly to a zero mean Gaussian process. A augmented inverse probability weighted empirical log-likelihood function is also defined. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood converges weakly to the square of a Gaussian process with mean zero and variance one. We apply these results to the construction of Gaussian process approximation based confidence bands and empirical likelihood based confidence bands of the distribution function of Y. A simulation is conducted to evaluate the confidence bands.     

Max-stable processes for modeling extremes observed in space and time

Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. For statistical inference it is often assumed that there is no temporal dependence; i.e., that the observations at spatial locations are independent in time. In a first approach we construct max-stable space–time processes as limits of rescaled pointwise maxima of independent Gaussian processes, where the space–time covariance functions satisfy weak regularity conditions. This leads to so-called Brown–Resnick processes. In a second approach, we extend Smith’s storm profile model to a space–time setting. We provide explicit expressions for the bivariate distribution functions, which are equal under appropriate choice of the parameters. We also show how the space–time covariance function of the underlying Gaussian process can be interpreted in terms of the tail dependence function in the limiting max-stable space–time process.     

Skew Gaussian Process for Nonlinear Regression

In this article, we extend the Gaussian process for regression model by assuming a skew Gaussian process prior on the input function and a skew Gaussian white noise on the error term. Under these assumptions, the predictive density of the output function at a new fixed input is obtained in a closed form. Also, we study the Gaussian process predictor when the errors depart from the Gaussianity to the skew Gaussian white noise. The bias is derived in a closed form and is studied for some special cases. We conduct a simulation study to compare the empirical distribution function of the Gaussian process predictor under Gaussian white noise and skew Gaussian white noise.     

On the Gerber–Shiu function with random discount rate

In this paper, we study the Gerber–Shiu (G-S) function for the classical risk model, in which the discount rate is generalized from a constant to a random variable. The discounted interest force accumulated process is modeled by a Poisson process and a Gaussian process for the G-S function. In terms of the standard techniques in ruin theory, we derive the integro-differential equation and the defective renewal equation satisfied by the G-S function. Then, the asymptotic formula for the G-S function is obtained using the renewal theory.     

On Cramér–von Mises type test based on local time of switching diffusion process

We consider a Cramér–von Mises type test for hypothesis that the observed diffusion process has sign-type trend coefficient based on empirical density function. It is shown that the limit distribution of the proposed test statistic is defined by the integral type functional of continuous Gaussian process. We provide the Karhunen–Loève expansion of the corresponding limiting process. Approximation of the threshold is given through the representation for the limit statistic.     

Palm Distributions for Log Gaussian Cox Processes

This paper establishes a remarkable result regarding Palm distributions for a log Gaussian Cox process: the reduced Palm distribution for a log Gaussian Cox process is itself a log Gaussian Cox process that only differs from the original log Gaussian Cox process in the intensity function. This new result is used to study functional summaries for log Gaussian Cox processes.     

Generalized portmanteau statistics and tests of randomness

This paper considers the problem of testing the randomness of Gaussian and non–Gaussian time series. A general class of parametric portmanteau statistics, which include the Box–Pierce and the Ljung–Box statistics, is introduced. Using the exact first and second moments of the sample autocorrelations when the observations are i.i.d. normal with unknown mean, the exact expected value of any portmanteau statistics is obtained for this case. Two new portmanteau statistics, which exploit the exact moments of the sample autocorrelations, are studied. For the nonparametric case, a rank portmanteau statistic is introduced. The latter has the same distribution for any series of exchangeable random variables and uses the exact moments of the rank autocorrelations. We show that its asymptotic distribution is chi–squate. Simulation results indicate that the new portmanteau statistics are better approximated by the chi–square asymptotic distribution than the Ljung–Box statistics. Several analytical results presented in the paper were derived by usig a symbolic manipulation program.     

Alternative posterior consistency results in nonparametric binary regression using Gaussian process priors

We establish consistency of posterior distribution when a Gaussian process prior is used as a prior distribution for the unknown binary regression function. Specifically, we take the work of Ghosal and Roy [2006. Posterior consistency of Gaussian process prior for nonparametric binary regression. Ann. Statist. 34, 2413–2429] as our starting point, and then weaken their assumptions on the smoothness of the Gaussian process kernel while retaining a stronger yet applicable condition about design points. Furthermore, we extend their results to multi-dimensional covariates under a weaker smoothness condition on the Gaussian process. Finally, we study the extent to which posterior consistency can be achieved under a general model where, when additional hyperparameters in the covariance function of a Gaussian process are involved.     

Bernoulli Processes with Non-Positive Correlations

We deal with sequences of dependent Bernoulli variables with non positive correlations. Some special models for 1-dependent and 2-dependent 0–1 valued variables are analyzed, namely Bernoulli variables obtained by clipping a linear combination of iid variables. Formulas describing dependence of their correlation function on the clipping parameters are derived. The lower bound for the sum of autocorrelations of Bernoulli variables obtained by clipping a Gaussian process is provided.     

Non‐Gaussian geostatistical modeling using (skew) t processes

We propose a new model for regression and dependence analysis when addressing spatial data with possibly heavy tails and an asymmetric marginal distribution. We first propose a stationary process with t marginals obtained through scale mixing of a Gaussian process with an inverse square root process with Gamma marginals. We then generalize this construction by considering a skew‐Gaussian process, thus obtaining a process with skew‐t marginal distributions. For the proposed (skew) t process, we study the second‐order and geometrical properties and in the t case, we provide analytic expressions for the bivariate distribution. In an extensive simulation study, we investigate the use of the weighted pairwise likelihood as a method of estimation for the t process. Moreover we compare the performance of the optimal linear predictor of the t process versus the optimal Gaussian predictor. Finally, the effectiveness of our methodology is illustrated by analyzing a georeferenced dataset on maximum temperatures in Australia.     

Bayesian estimation of renewal function for inverse Gaussian renewal process

Two approximation methods are used to obtain the Bayes estimate for the renewal function of inverse Gaussian renewal process. Both approximations use a gamma-type conditional prior for the location parameter, a non-informative marginal prior for the shape parameter, and a squared error loss function. Simulations compare the accuracy of the estimators and indicate that the Tieney and Kadane (T–K)-based estimator out performs Maximum Likelihood (ML)- and Lindley (L)-based estimator. Computations for the T–K-based Bayes estimate employ the generalized Newton's method as well as a recent modified Newton's method with cubic convergence to maximize modified likelihood functions. The program is available from the author.     

Bayesian nonparametric modelling of the link function in the single-index model using a Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior

This paper proposes the use of the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior for a new nonparametric approach to estimating the link function in the single-index model (SIM). The Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior has so far mainly been used for nonparametric density estimation. Here we modify this approach to allow for an approximation of the unknown link function. Instead of the usual Gaussian distribution, the error term is assumed to be asymmetric Laplace distributed which increases the flexibility and robustness of the SIM. To automatically identify truly active predictors, spike-and-slab priors are used for Bayesian variable selection. Posterior computations are performed via a Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs sampler using a truncation-based algorithm for stick-breaking priors. We compare the efficiency of the proposed approach with well-established techniques in an extensive simulation study and illustrate its practical performance by an application to nonparametric modelling of the power consumption in a sewage treatment plant.     

Some Asymptotic Results of Kernel Density Estimators Under Random Left-Truncation and Dependent Data

Problems with truncated data arise frequently in survival analyses and reliability applications. The estimation of the density function of the lifetimes is often of interest. In this article, the estimation of density function by the kernel method is considered, when truncated data are showing some kind of dependence. We apply the strong Gaussian approximation technique to study the strong uniform consistency for kernel estimators of the density function under a truncated dependent model. We also apply the strong approximation results to study the integrated square error properties of the kernel density estimators under the truncated dependent scheme.     

Convergence properties of the expected improvement algorithm with fixed mean and covariance functions

This paper deals with the convergence of the expected improvement algorithm, a popular global optimization algorithm based on a Gaussian process model of the function to be optimized. The first result is that under some mild hypotheses on the covariance function k of the Gaussian process, the expected improvement algorithm produces a dense sequence of evaluation points in the search domain, when the function to be optimized is in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by k  . The second result states that the density property also holds for P-almost$\mathsf{P}\text{-almost}$ all continuous functions, where P is the (prior) probability distribution induced by the Gaussian process.     

Large Deviation Results for Statistics of Short- and Long-memory Gaussian Processes

This paper discusses the large deviation principle of several important statistics for short- and long-memory Gaussian processes. First, large deviation theorems for the log-likelihood ratio and quadratic forms for a short-memory Gaussian process with mean function are proved. Their asymptotics are described by the large deviation rate functions. Since they are complicated, they are numerically evaluated and illustrated using the Maple V system (Char et al ., 1991a,b). Second, the large deviation theorem of the log-likelihood ratio statistic for a long-memory Gaussian process with constant mean is proved. The asymptotics of the long-memory case differ greatly from those of the short-memory case. The maximum likelihood estimator of a spectral parameter for a short-memory Gaussian stationary process is asymptotically efficient in the sense of Bahadur.     

Bayesian deconvolution of oil well test data using Gaussian processes

We use Bayesian methods to infer an unobserved function that is convolved with a known kernel. Our method is based on the assumption that the function of interest is a Gaussian process and, assuming a particular correlation structure, the resulting convolution is also a Gaussian process. This fact is used to obtain inferences regarding the unobserved process, effectively providing a deconvolution method. We apply the methodology to the problem of estimating the parameters of an oil reservoir from well-test pressure data. Here, the unknown process describes the structure of the well. Applications to data from Mexican oil wells show very accurate results.     

Two-scale spatial models for binary data

A spatial lattice model for binary data is constructed from two spatial scales linked through conditional probabilities. A coarse grid of lattice locations is specified, and all remaining locations (which we call the background) capture fine-scale spatial dependence. Binary data on the coarse grid are modelled with an autologistic distribution, conditional on the binary process on the background. The background behaviour is captured through a hidden Gaussian process after a logit transformation on its Bernoulli success probabilities. The likelihood is then the product of the (conditional) autologistic probability distribution and the hidden Gaussian–Bernoulli process. The parameters of the new model come from both spatial scales. A series of simulations illustrates the spatial-dependence properties of the model and likelihood-based methods are used to estimate its parameters. Presence–absence data of corn borers in the roots of corn plants are used to illustrate how the model is fitted.     

Strong Gaussian Approximations of Product-Limit and Quantile Processes for Strong Mixing and Censored Data

In this article, we consider the product-limit quantile estimator of an unknown quantile function under a censored dependent model. This is a parallel problem to the estimation of the unknown distribution function by the product-limit estimator under the same model. Simultaneous strong Gaussian approximations of the product-limit process and product-limit quantile process are constructed with rate O[(log n)^?λ] for some λ > 0. The strong Gaussian approximation of the product-limit process is then applied to derive the laws of the iterated logarithm for product-limit process.     

Brownian Bridge and Other Path-dependent Gaussian Processes Vectorial Simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein–Ulenbeck mean reversion process.     

Joint models for a GLM-type longitudinal response and a time-to-event with smooth random effects

ABSTRACT

Longitudinal studies often entail non-Gaussian primary responses. When dropout occurs, potential non-ignorability of the missingness process may occur, and a joint model for the primary response and a time-to-event may represent an appealing tool to account for dependence between the two processes. As an extension to the GLMJM, recently proposed, and based on Gaussian latent effects, we assume that the random effects follow a smooth, P-spline based density. To estimate model parameters, we adopt a two-step conditional Newton–Raphson algorithm. Since the maximization of the penalized log-likelihood requires numerical integration over the random effect, which is often cumbersome, we opt for a pseudo-adaptive Gaussian quadrature rule to approximate the model likelihood. We discuss the proposed model by analyzing an original dataset on dilated cardiomyopathies and through a simulation study.