The San Francisco bathhouse battles of 1984: civil liberties,AIDS risk,and shifts in health policy

In the mid-1980s, controversy emerged in a number of American cities over the roles gay bathhouses and sex clubs might play in the spread of AIDS, and in raising safe-sex awareness. In 1984, San Francisco became the first city where political debates broke out over AIDS-related policies for bathhouses and sex clubs. These debates were dominated by questions of public health and gay civil liberties. A variety of proposals were put forward during 1984 to try to reconcile these two concerns, or to give one a higher priority than the other. Certain officials in San Francisco's government, and members of its gay/lesbian/bisexual community, strongly disagreed over whether the businesses should be closed, should make their own AIDS-prevention efforts, or should continue operating under new regulations. Policies implemented for the city's baths were disconnected from the known AIDS risk of different sexual behaviors, and from research findings on AIDS and the local baths. Political and judicial decisions concerning San Francisco's bathhouses and sex clubs that were made in 1984 had continuing influences on these businesses through the later 1980s and the 1990s.     

Latino Gay and Bisexual Men's Relationships with Non-Gay-Identified Men Who Have Sex With Men

This study investigated relationships between Latino gay-identified men in metropolitan New York City and their non-gay-identified male partners. Phase 1 consisted of in-depth interviews (N = 33), and Phase 2 consisted of quantitative surveys (N = 120) with Brazilian, Colombian, and Dominican men who have sex with men (MSM). A majority of participants reported having had sex with heterosexually identified men, and in many cases, the relationship was sustained over time. We found mixed results concerning an attitude sometimes attributed to Latinos that sexual orientation is defined by sexual role, with receptive MSM seen as gay and insertive MSM seen as straight. Although there were no significant associations between partner sexual orientation and unprotected anal intercourse, gay men were less likely to take the insertive role in oral or anal sex with straight-identified male partners than with gay partners.     

The number of illegal migrants of Mexican origin in the United States: Sex ratio-based estimates for 1980

This article reports the results of applying a sex ratio-based method to estimate the number of undocumented Mexicans residing in the United States in 1980. The approach centers on a comparison between the hypothetical sex ratio one would expect to find in Mexico in the absence of emigration to the United States and the sex ratio that is in fact reported in preliminary results from the 1980 Mexican Census. The procedure involves, inter alia, assuming a range of values for the sex ratio at birth and for census coverage differentials by sex in Mexico. Even the combinations of these values most likely to result in large estimates suggest that no more than 4 million illegal migrants of Mexican origin were residing in the United States in 1980.     

Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two-sex algorithm

"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."     

Immigrants and natives in U.S. science and engineering occupations, 1994–2006

Between 1994 and 2006, the ratio of foreign-born scientists and engineers (FSE) to native scientists and engineers (NSE) doubled. I decompose this change into a migration effect (which accounts for migration in general), a proportional college effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of college graduates among migrant and native workers), and a proportional science and engineering (S&E) effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of S&Es among migrant and native college-educated workers). Results show that the migration effect explains about three-quarters of the increase in FSE/NSE during the entire period under study. The proportional S&E effect, which captures changes in the ratio as a result of immigration of S&Es in excess of what would be expected from general migration alone, was largest in 1995–1998, which were years of sustained economic growth. Conversely, a slower economy coincided with a declining proportional S&E effect after 2000. Increases in the annual cap on H-1B visas, an important avenue of entry for foreign-born S&Es, had little effect on the ratio. In short, during 1994–2006, the association between economic swings and the specific, more than proportional migration of S&Es was much stronger than the association between the latter and changes in the H-1B cap.     

Long and short term poverty: Is Germany a two-thirds society?

Social scientists and media commentators have expressed concern that Western countries are becoming two-thirds societies in which two-thirds enjoy the benefits of affluence, while one-third are locked into poverty or near-poverty. This paper, based on economic panel data, tests the two-thirds society hypothesis in the case of (West) Germany 1984–89. The main finding is that poverty (defined as receiving less than half of average household income) is mostly short term and that nothing like one-third are locked into poverty. On the other hand, far more people than had previously been thought are at risk of poverty. In 1984–89 only 3% were poor every year but about 25% were poor in at least one year. Germany appears to be a 75-15-10 society: 75% not poor, 15% occasionally poor but with generally adequate incomes, and 10% frequently poor or near-poor with incomes that may be considered inadequate. Analysis is based on the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and relates to the 8,000 people who were interviewed each year from 1984 to 1989.     

Top-down versus bottom-up theories of subjective well-being

This paper addresses issues of causal direction in research on subjective well-being (SWB). Previous researchers have generally assumed that such variables as domain satisfactions, social support, life events, and levels of expectation and aspiration are causes of SWB. Critics have pointed out that they could just as well be consequences (Costa and McCrae, 1980; Veenhoven, 1988). In some contexts this has been referred to as the top-down versus bottom-up controversy (Diener, 1984). The main purpose is to propose a general statistical model which holds promise of resolving this controversy. The model can be used when three or more waves of panel data are available. It is used here to assess causal direction between six domain satisfactions (marriage, work, leisure, standard of living, friendship and health) and SWB. Data are drawn from four waves of an Australian Quality of Life panel survey (1981–1987) with an initial sample size of 942.We particularly thank Ronald C. Kessler of the University of Michigan for his advice on statistical issues. We are also very grateful for comments from Frank M. Andrews of the University.of Michigan and Mariah Evans and Jonathan Kelley of Australian National University. Constructive comments from an anonymous SIR reader also led to significant revisions.     

HIV risk behavior and drug use among heterosexual male crack users by prostitution involvement

Crack and prostitution, or sex exchange, have been linked to the heterosexual spread of HIV (e.g. Inciardi 1993, 1995). Previous studies have found that among female crack users there are subgroups who do and do not become involved in prostitution (e.g. Logan, Farabee & Leukefeld 1998; Logan & Leukefeld 1998). However, there has been little focus in the literature on subgroups of male heterosexual crack users who are or are not involved in prostitution. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in male heterosexual crack users who reported no involvement in prostitution as clients (n = 4,208), males who reported involvement in prostitution as clients but not in the month preceding the interview (n = 2,774), and males who reported involvement in prostitution as clients the month preceding the interview (n = 2,283) from a multi-site sample of male crack users who participated in the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA) AIDS Cooperative Agreement Project from 20 sites across the nation. Results of the logistic regression indicated that having an STD three or more times and using drugs during sex were associated with ever being involved in prostitution as clients, while using drugs during sex and having 5 or more sexual partners the month preceding the interview were significantly associated with being involved in prostitution as clients at the time of the interview. Implications for interventions are discussed.     

Internalized homophobia, lesbian identity development, and self-esteem in undergraduate women

This study examined the relationship between internalized homophobia, self-esteem, and lesbian identity development in 35 undergraduate women. Results indicated evidence of a strong relationship between the two identity development measures, the Stage Allocation Measure (SAM; Cass, 1984) and the Gay Identity Questionnaire (GIQ; Brady & Busse, 1994), and moderate relationships between identity development and internalized homophobia, between identity development and self-esteem, and between internalized homophobia and self-esteem. Implications for research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Child Underreporting,Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.     

Survey on sex ratio of the children from one-child families in Shihezi in the Xinjiang Uigur autonomous region]

A survey of 1 child families in the Shihezi area showed a higher ratio of boys, 920 boys vs. 822 girls (1.12:1.00). There was also a higher ratio of boys among children born between 1975-1980, but the proportion of girls was higher among children born before 1974. The ratio of boys was higher among firstborn children born between 1976-1980 (1.086:1.00), while the sex ratio was 1.00 among 2nd born children born between 1976-1980. School children between age 6-18 showed 6266 boys and 6218 girls (1.01:1.00). The sex ratio of the total population in the Shihezi area was 1.05:1:00; this coincides with our national ratio of 1.08:1.00 (1953 census) and the world sex ratio of 1.0035:1.00 in 1975. The universal occurrence of more males than females is probably a result of physiological factors. It is actually beneficial to the country to have a slightly higher ratio of males because many jobs are more suitable for men because of their physical condition and the accidental death rate is also higher for men. The slightly higher percentage of boys among single child families was not statistically significant (P0.05).     

Sex-role attitudes and employment status as predictors of perceived life satisfaction among married women in Korea

The focus of this exploratory study is on reexamining the relationship between sex role attitudes and the employment status of married women in Korea, and exploring the nature and extent of women's sex role attitudes and employment status on their life satisfaction (marriage, family, work). Multicluster sampling was used to select 418 women from the city of Seoul. The Attitudes toward Women Scale (AWS) (Spence and Helmreich) was used to measure the concept of sex role attitudes. Life satisfaction was measured by 3 questions: ALLSAT, a general feeling; IGA for the general effect based on Osgood's semantic differential scales; and work status and voluntariness. Background characteristics are given. The results revealed that there was an independent relationship between sex role attitudes and employment status. Based on willingness to work groups (4), those who worked involuntarily had the most conservative sex role attitudes, and those involuntarily nonworking had the most liberal attitudes. When education background was controlled for, there were no significant differences between working and nonworking women and sex role attitudes. There was little relationship observed between sex role attitudes and overall satisfaction. When controlling for employment status, however, sex role attitudes and the relationship to work satisfaction was statistically significant among fulltime housewives, who had conservative attitudes. In fact, fulltime housewives reported greater satisfaction with their role as homemaker than those with liberal sex role attitudes. Women's attitudes and their actual roles has a greater influence on women's life satisfaction than sex role attitudes. Overall, working women are more satisfied with work and overall life than are nonworking women, when the mean satisfaction scored all 6 indicators are used in a 1 way analysis of variance. There were no significant differences in satisfaction with marriage or family life between working and nonworking women. When the intervening variable willingness to work is introduced, this plus employment status affects life satisfaction. The discrepancy between women's sex role attitudes and their work status produces the greatest dissatisfaction. The multiple regression of background variables affecting sex role attitudes shows that parent's encouragement for a woman to work has the strongest effect. Educational attainment has a positive effect on sex role attitudes, and among less well education has a negative effect and positive effect among those well educated, Husband's income is significantly higher than that for working women. Another model expressing reciprocal relations between marriage, family and work satisfaction was generated. Improvements are suggested for future research.     

The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958–1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence

Changes in mortality in the Soviet Union have attracted the attention of both scholars and the popular media. After a hiatus of more than ten years, the government of the Soviet Union has released data on mortality for the 1980s, which allow assessment of recent changes. The new life table for 1984–85 shows that mortality of Soviet females has improved at ages below 45 and deteriorated above that age since the last age-specific mortality data were published in the early 1970s, while mortality of males has improved at ages below 25 and deteriorated above that age. At the same time, the official mortality rates for persons aged 60 and over in 1958–59, 1968–71, and 1984–85 are implausibly low. Poor-quality data at the older ages, particularly in rural areas and the less developed regions of the country, contributed to these low mortality rates of the old. As data quality has improved with time, the reported mortality rates at old ages have increased. Adjustment of the official data for error, especially above age 60, shows that whereas the reported value of e₀ for males fell by 1.5 years between 1958–59 and 1984–85, the actual value probably fell by no more than 0.5 years; the corresponding figures for females were a reported rise of one year, and an actual rise of at least two years. Examination of these Soviet data illustrates how important consideration of error in mortality statistics of the old can be in understanding mortality trends.     

Asian Americans: growth,change, and diversity

The 1980 US census counted 3.5 million Asian Americans, up from 1.4 million in 1970. Asian Americans made up just 1.5% of the total US population of 226.5 million as of April 1, 1980, but this was the 3rd largest racial or ethnic minority after blacks and Hispanics. Asians increased far more during the 1970s (141%) than blacks (17%) or Hispanics (39%). This Bulletin examines the characteristics of Asian Americans, how their numbers have grown, where they live, how different groups vary in age structure, childbearing, health, and longevity. It reports on the kinds of households Asian Americans form and how they fare with regard to education, occupation, and income. Asian Americans are now often perceived as the model minority. As a whole, they are better educated, occupy higher rungs on the occupational ladder, and earn more than the general US population and even white Americans. This Bulletin presents the 1st comprehensive look at many important facts about Asian Americans and how the groups differ. Special tabulations of data collected in the 1980 census are provided. The 1980 census data are the latest available to give a true picture at the national level of Asian Americans and the various groups among them. The Bulletin examines the current numbers of Asian Americans and how this population is defined. The major Asian American groups are Chinese (21%), Filipinos (20%), Japanese (15%), Vietnamese (21%), Koreans (11%), and Asian Indians (10%). Except for the latest-arrived Vietnamese, the fertility of the 6 groups is lower than the white average. The following areas are also discussed: mortality and health; families and households; education; Asian youth; employment; income and poverty; and future prospects.     

Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences

In China, the male-biased sex ratio has increased significantly. Because the one-child policy applies only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to identify the causal effect of the one-child policy on the increase in sex ratios by using a difference-in-differences (DD) estimator. Using the 1990 census, we find that the strict enforcement of the one-child policy led to 4.4 extra boys per 100 girls in the 1980s, accounting for about 94% of the total increase in sex ratios during this period. The robust tests indicate that the estimated policy effect is not likely confounded by other omitted policy shocks or socioeconomic changes. Moreover, we conduct the DD estimation using both the 2000 census and the 2005 mini-census. Our estimates suggest that the one-child policy resulted in about 7.0 extra boys per 100 girls for the 1991–2005 birth cohorts. The effect of the one-child policy accounts for about 57% and 54% of the total increases in sex ratios for the 1991–2000 and 2001–2005 birth cohorts, respectively.     

Toward an index of gender equality

This paper develops a Gender Equality Index (GEI) that is modelled in its thinking and implementation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The GEI was computed using annual Ontario data on seven socioeconomic indicators for the years 1975 to 1984. The analysis supports the following conclusions: (1) that it is possible to indentify a subset of indicators that have face validity as measures of relative gender equality; (2) that factor analysis is a useful means for evaluating the construct validity of gender equality; (3) that the resulting GEI reveals a strong upward trend toward gender equality in the latter half of the 1970's and the early 1980's and (4) that this trend has flattened in 1984.     

Attitudes toward adoption and child-bearing by American and Brazilian students

A 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design with country of origin (U.S. or Brazil), education (high school or college), and sex (male or female) as independent variables was used to investigate cross-national differences concerning: the number of natural children wanted and expected, the number of adopted children wanted and expected, and concern about overpopulation. Subjects were 67 American and 74 Brazilian high school students, and 64 American and 78 Brazilian college students. Several interesting findings emerged. For one thing, Americans reported thinking more about adopting children and expected to have more adopted children than did Brazilians. Also, concern about overpopulation was more predictive of the number of children wanted and expected in the U.S. than in Brazil. The implications of these and other findings for population planners was discussed.     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

A survey of cause of death (1973-1979) in Bao Jing County]

Findings from 1976 and 1980 surveys conducted by the Provincial Tumor Prevention Bureau and the County Department of Health concerning causes of death in Baojing, China, from 1973 to 1979 are reported. The data show that mortality rates for women and children were relatively high. The leading cause of death was contagious disease, particularly dysentery, followed by respiratory diseases. No relationship between cause of death and ethnic origin was established.     

State population and household estimates,with age,sex, and components of change: 1981-87

This report contains provisional US state estimates of 1) the resident and civilian populations and of households for July 1, 1987, 2) revised annual population and household estimates for July 1, 1981-1986, and 3) components of population change for the 1980-1987 period. Also shown are annual age estimates and median age of the resident population of states, 1981-1987, by sex for 10-year age groups and selected broad age groups. Florida passed Pennsylvania to become the 4th most populous state in 1987, ranking behind California, New York, and Texas. Alaska and Louisiana both registered population losses for the 1st time this decade, while West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Wyoming again had population declines. Several agriculture-based states--Iowa, North Dakota, and Nebraska--marked another year of population declines. California and Florida each gained more than 2 million persons through net immigration since 1980, and Texas over 1.2 million. The 25-44 year-olds are the most rapidly growing age group in the 1980s, increasing by 23.8%. This age group now constitutes almost 1/3 (31.9%) of the US population. US median age continues to climb upward, increasing from 30 years in 1980 to 32.1 years in 1987. The Northeast continues as the region with the highest median age (33.7) and the highest proportion of elderly (13.5% aged 65 and over). Largely because of changes in the age structure, households increased faster than the total population from 1980-1987 (12% versus 7.4%). The 4 states that lost population between 1980 and 1987--Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and West Virginia--all had increases in households during the same period. While the Northeast and Midwest together accounted for only 10.8% of national population growth in the 1980-1987 period, they accounted for 26.9% of the national increase in households. California, Texas, and Florida accounted for 52.4% of national population growth from 1980 to 1987, but only for 36.5% of household growth.