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1.
In this paper we look at a panel of OECD aggregate fertility and labor market data between 1970 and 1995 and we report some
striking recent developments. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) were falling and Female Participation Rates (FPR) were increasing,
conforming to a well known long-run trend. Along the cross-sectional dimension, the correlation between TFR and FPR was negative
and significant during the 1970's and up to the early 1980's. This seemed consistent with secular comovements. However, by
the late 1980's the correlation had become positive and equally significant. We discuss our findings within the framework
of standard neoclassical models of fertility and labor supply adapted to macro data, as in Butz and Ward (1979).
Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 29 December 2000
All correspondence to Pedro Mira. Namkee Ahn is grateful for financial support received from the Bank of Spain and from Spain's
Ministerio de Educación y Cultura, grant SEC97-1249. We benefited from comments by two anonymous referees and by seminar participants
at FEDEA, CEMFI and ESPE-98. All remaining errors are our own. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
2.
For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative
excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and
the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on
complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two
inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated “extra” probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual
specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities
show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest
cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.
Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999 相似文献
3.
Ali C. Taşiran 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):783-796
Walker (1997) criticizes one of the conclusions in my book Tas?\iran (1995), that Heckman and Walker’s very high negative
wage rate and positive income effects on Swedish fertility are very sensitive. In this paper, I explain, first, that my results
are not only based on the series Walker mentions, but also on other series in both SFS and HUS data sets. Second, the combined
aggregate and micro wage series he criticizes is mainly derived with Heckman and Walker. Third, by discussing the points he
raises for the combination strategy, I show that his revised results are also supporting my conclusion.
Received: 7 June 1996/Accepted: 16 July 1997
I am grateful to Anders Klevmarken, Lennart Hjalmarsson, Bj?rn Gustafsson and Ann Veiderpass for their valuable suggestions
and discussions on an earlier version of this paper. Thanks also to two anonymous referees for their comments and to the responsible
editor of this journal Klaus F. Zimmermann, for his encouragement and many helpful comments. Any remaining errors are my own.
Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
4.
James R. Walker 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):773-782
This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported
by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual
wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of
microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data.
Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001
I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants
HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
5.
We study the Becker and Lewis (1973) quantity-quality model of children adding an explicit child care time constraint for
parents. Parents can take care of the children themselves or purchase day care. Our results are: (i) If there only is own
care, a quantity-quality trade-off, different from that of Becker and Lewis (1973), arises. The income effect on fertility
is positive if child quantity is a closer complement than child quality to the consumption of goods. (ii) If, instead, there
is a combination of purchased and own care, the effect of income on fertility is ambiguous, even if quantity of children is
a normal good in the standard sense. This is the Becker and Lewis (1973) result extended to a situation with a binding child
care time constraint. The conclusion is that the Becker and Lewis (1973) result holds as long as at least some child care
is purchased.
Received: 12 November 1999/Accepted: 1 September 2000 相似文献
6.
An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that
integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for
the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian
fertility dynamics as well as other socio-demographic features of Canadian women. However, we fail to totally characterize
the important drops in the fertility rate that took place for this era.
Received: 2 May 1996 / Accepted: 27 March 1997 相似文献
7.
Ethnic minorities in England and Wales are spatially concentrated in relatively-deprived urban areas. Both geographic clustering
and the economic characteristics of ethnically-concentrated neighbourhoods can impact upon the opportunities and constraints
facing residents of such areas. This paper explores the relationship between the existence of enclaves and the employment
prospects of ethnic minorities in England and Wales. It is shown that there is considerable spatial variation in employment
outcomes. There is a lower incidence of self-employment in more ethnically-concentrated urban areas, which contradicts the
view of ethnic entrepreneurship as an enclave phenomenon. Unemployment rates are also higher for minorities living in more
concentrated areas. Enclaves in England and Wales do not appear to offer many economic benefits to minority individuals.
Received: 31 December 1999/Accepted: 27 November 2000 相似文献
8.
The socioeconomic consequences of young women's childbearing: Reconciling disparate evidence 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
David C. Ribar 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(4):547-565
Recent studies have begun to examine rigorously the links between early childbearing and subsequent socioeconomic status.
Prominent in this literature has been a set of analyses that have used sibling fixed effects models to control for omitted
variables bias. These studies report that the siblings difference procedure leads to smaller estimates of the effects of teen
fertility than does standard regression analysis. While it is well known that the siblings fixed effects procedure makes strong
assumptions regarding the type of omitted variables and is not necessarily robust to alternative assumptions, the assumptions
of the procedure have not been explicitly examined. This paper uses 1979–1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of
Youth to compare estimates of the income and education consequences of teenage and young adult fertility from standard regression
and siblings fixed effects models with estimates from more general, alternative siblings models.
Received: 19 January 1998/Accepted: 6 April 1999 相似文献
9.
Nguyen-dinh H 《Journal of population economics》1997,10(3):251-271
This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as
the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson
and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility,
perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have
important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect.
Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997 相似文献
10.
In this paper we study the reasons behind the asymmetric distribution of housework within Spanish two-earner couples. Spouses'
housework times are estimated jointly in a bivariate framework using data from the 1991 Work Situation and Time Use Survey.
In order to understand the impact of gender-specific factors on the observed allocation of housework, we perform estimations
that are in line with the Oaxaca decomposition. Our results suggest that the unequal division of domestic work between wives
and husbands in our sample is mainly explained by gender-specific effects rather than by differences in their observable characteristics.
All correspondence to Daniel Miles. We thank Juan F. Jimeno, a co-editor and two anonymous referees for helpful comments
and the Spanish Instituto de la Mujer for providing us with the data. Financial support from the Cátedra de Estudios Feministas-Caixanova
and from the Spanish Dirección General de Ense?anza Superior, grant number BEC2001-1270, is also gratefully acknowledged.
Responsible editor: Daniel S. Hamermesh. 相似文献
11.
The trade-off between parents' time with their own kids and market work, and its dependence on out-of-home day care is analyzed
in a simultaneous equation framework. Economic incentives primarily work through decisions about market work, while the direct
effects on time with children are weak. The results suggest that a change in the mother's working hours has less influence
on the parents' time with their children than a change in the father's working hours. This would imply that a policy working
to increase the time with people's own children should primarily influence the father's work hours. We also find that parents
prefer joint activities with their children, and that out-of-home child care is not chosen as a substitute for own time with
children.
Received: 1 February 2000/Accepted: 22 May 2002
All correspondence to Daniel Hallberg. Helpful comments and suggestions from Henry Ohlsson and anonymous referees are gratefully
acknowledged. We also appreciate comments from Martin Browning and seminar participants at Uppsala and Ume? universities.
Financial support from the Swedish Council for Social Research (SFR) is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
12.
Stephen Wheatley Price 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(1):193-220
In this paper the employment performance of native and foreign born men in England is examined, using 1993–1994 data from
the Quarterly Labour Force Survey of the United Kingdom. Chiswick's (1982) hypotheses of immigrant employment adjustment are
investigated using logistic regression analysis. We show that there are interesting and important employment effects arising
from immigrant characteristics. Recent white immigrants experience a transitory employment disadvantage. However non-white
immigrants never attain employment equality with native born white men. Education, potential experience, family characteristics
and country of birth are also found to be important determinants of employment.
Received: 13 September 1998/Accepted: 15 July 1999 相似文献
13.
Teenage childbearing and cognitive development 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we examine how having a child as a teen affects the cognitive development of young women as measured on standardized
tests. The research in this paper makes use of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, a biennial survey that contains
information on a cohort of young women from the time they were in the 8th grade in 1988 until, the latest wave, 1994. By observing
two test scores before a woman has a child and one test score after, we can control for both the level and growth in test
scores experienced prior to childbirth. The results indicate that although teenage mothers have lower cognitive test scores
than their counterparts without children, the effects of childbearing itself are negligible.
Received: 23 August 2000/Accepted: 02 January 2001 相似文献
14.
Timing,togetherness and time windfalls 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Daniel S. Hamermesh 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):601-623
With appropriate data the analysis of time use, labor supply and leisure can move beyond the standard questions of wage and
income elasticities of hours supplied. I present four examples: 1) American data from 1973 through 1997 show that the amount
of evening and night work in the U.S. has decreased. 2) The same data demonstrate that workers whose relative earnings increase
experience a relative diminution of the burden of work at unpleasant times. 3) U.S. data for the 1970s and 1990s demonstrate
that spouses' work schedules are more synchronized than would occur randomly; synchrony among working spouses diminished after
the 1970s; and the full-income elasticity of demand for it was higher among wives than among husbands in the 1970s but equal
in the 1990s. 4) Dutch time-budget data for 1990 show that the overwhelming majority of the windfall hour that occurred when
standard time resumed was used for extra sleep.
Received: 6 July 2000/Accepted: 20 January 2001
Daniel S. Hamermesh is Edward Everett Hale Centennial Professor, University of Texas at Austin; research associate, National
Bureau of Economic Research, and Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit. I thank the National Science Foundation for support
under Grants SBR-9422429 and SES-9904699, and two anonymous referees, Gerard Pfann, the late Lee Lillard, Gerald Oettinger,
Steve Trejo and participants at the ESPE Conference and at seminars at the University of Bristol and Warwick University for
helpful comments. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
15.
Linda Adair David Guilkey Eilene Bisgrove Socorro Gultiano 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):625-645
The effects of childbearing and work sector on women's hours and earnings in the 8 years following an index pregnancy were
examined in a cohort of more than 2,000 women in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Change in cash earnings
and hours worked were each modeled jointly with sector of labor force participation using an estimation strategy that deals
with endogeneity of childbearing decisions and selectivity into sector of work. Two or more additional children born in the
8 year interval significantly reduced women's earnings, while having an additional child under 2 years of age in 1991 reduced
hours worked.
Received: 16 July 1998/Accepted: 22 March 2001
All correspondence to Linda Adair. The authors wish to thank Family Health International and the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) for their generous support. This publication was funded by USAID under Cooperative Agreement USAID/CCP-3060-A-00-3021-00
to Family Health International (FHI). David Guilkey's participation in this paper was also supported by the MEASURE Evaluation Project also with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract Number HRN-A-00-97-00018-00.
The conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the policies of FHI or USAID. Helpful comments by two
anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz. 相似文献
16.
This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data
used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both
standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion
or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and
goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973).
Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997 相似文献
17.
This paper examines employment and child-care choices of single-parent families with young children in the United States
and Canada, using a pooled data set based on recent national surveys in each country. We find that the employment and child-care
choices of Canadian families are similar to those of U.S. families. Estimates of a model of employment and child-care choices
indicate significant effects of child-care subsidies, child-care prices, and wage rates on employment and child-care choices.
Received: 1 February 2000/Accepted: 15 January 2001 相似文献
18.
In this paper, data from the 1997 Swiss Labour Force Survey are used to analyse the allocation and value of time assigned
to housework and child-care. It is shown that men's allocation of time to housework and child-care is largely invariant to
changes in socio-economic factors. Women's allocation of time to housework and child-care, on the other hand, is shown to
depend on several social, economic, and demographic factors. The value of time assigned to housework and child-care is calculated
with two market replacement cost methods and three opportunity cost methods. The results show that the value of time assigned
to housework and child-care ranges from 27% to 39% and from 5% to 8% of GDP (in 1997), respectively. The value of time assigned
to housework and child-care is also calculated for different household structures.
Received: 15 April 1999/Accepted: 5 May 2000 相似文献
19.
Regina T. Riphahn 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(3):363-389
Using data from the first eleven waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel this study investigates the dynamic effects of
health shocks on employment and economic well-being of older workers. A health shock trebles the probability of leaving the
labor force and almost doubles the unemployment risk. The financial effects of health shocks are small on average and those
individuals with the highest remaining earnings potential are least affected by the health shock. Welfare state instruments
support the poorest section of the population but do not succeed in neutralizing the effects of a health shock for these groups.
Received: 9 April 1997/Accepted: 28 May 1998 相似文献
20.
In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and
other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience,
and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those
of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared
with the outcomes for males.
Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 5 March 1999 相似文献