中东的周期性动荡和战争成因

半个多世纪来,中东地区一直存在周期性的动荡和战争,严重阻碍了该地区正常国际关系的建构,也使阿拉伯民族的凝聚力和同外部力量抗争的能力不断受到挑战.外部力量对该地区的激烈争夺、重要的地理位置和油气资源以及中东国家之间的尖锐矛盾是造成动荡和战争的主要原因.     

21世纪初中东地缘政治格局变化及应对

冷战结束后,美国成为世界唯一的超级大国,中东地区形成了以美国为主导、由亲美和反美力量组成的地区力量格局。进入21世纪后,美国的相对衰落、两场反恐战争以及"阿拉伯之春"等因素推动了中东地缘政治格局转换。美国主导中东事务的能力下降,新兴经济体逐步在外部军事干预等问题上对其形成有力牵制;地区大国借机扩大其对地区事务的影响力,可望形成相互竞争和牵制的地区力量格局;逊尼派与什叶派矛盾仍在持续,宗教地缘冲突将成为该地区政治的重要特点,中国中东外交的相互调整势在必行。     

伊拉克战争后的中东战略格局

美国发动的伊拉克战争是美国试图建立美国控制下的单极世界的第一场战争．美国在取得战争的胜利后，将在中东建立美国主导下的中东格局，并加紧实施其全球战略．中东政治力量在战后纷纷重组，尤以伊朗的海湾安全战略和以色列的中东超级大国地位确立最为典型。美国主导下的中东虽不会发生大的战争，但中东依旧是动荡之源，未来走势充满变数．     

展望90年代中东局势

中东地区经历80年代的剧烈动荡,进入90年代其形势仍将变幻莫测。90年代第一年,爆发海湾危机,紧接着到1991年1月至2月,打了一场就地区来说规模空前的海湾战争。美国想能过这一场战争从根本上打击阿拉伯激进民族主义,分化、削弱阿拉伯与伊斯兰力量,牢牢控制石油通道与石油供应,确立美国在海湾和     

中东剧变与中国中东政策

中东动荡历时一年多,导致该地区多国政权更迭,并迅速扩展到叙利亚,叙危机已成为这场动荡旋涡的中心。伊斯兰势力的崛起成为这些转型国家面临的严峻课题。动荡使中东地区格局面临新的调整,地区大国间矛盾和力量消长,将影响有关国家政局和热点问题走向。美国调整中东政策,深刻影响了地区局势走向。中国坚持"不干涉内政"原则,尊重有关国家人民自主选择的原则立场,得到国际社会理解和肯定。中东形势演变对中国中东外交带来重要机遇和严峻挑战,中国应审时度势,积极应对,谋求中国与中东国家关系的新发展。     

中东剧变与中国中东政策

中东动荡历时一年多,导致该地区多国政权更迭,并迅速扩展到叙利亚,叙危机已成为这场动荡旋涡的中心.伊斯兰势力的崛起成为这些转型国家面临的严峻课题.动荡使中东地区格局面临新的调整,地区大国间矛盾和力量消长,将影响有关国家政局和热点问题走向.美国调整中东政策,深刻影响了地区局势走向.中国坚持“不干涉内政”原则,尊重有关国家人民自主选择的原则立场,得到国际社会理解和肯定.中东形势演变对中国中东外交带来重要机遇和严峻挑战,中国应审时度势,积极应对,谋求中国与中东国家关系的新发展.     

伊拉克战争后的中东战略格局

美国发动的伊拉克战争是美国试图建立美国控制下的单极世界的第一场战争.美国在取得战争的胜利后,将在中东建立美国主导下的中东格局,并加紧实施其全球战略.中东政治力量在战后纷纷重组,尤以伊朗的海湾安全战略和以色列的中东超级大国地位确立最为典型.美国主导下的中东虽不会发生大的战争,但中东依旧是动荡之源,未来走势充满变数.     

外部干预、精英惯习与阿富汗国家建构困局的根源

阿富汗困局是当前国际安全议题的重要组成部分,其国内暴力活动的外溢效应在很大程度上影响着地区乃至全球安全与秩序.阿富汗的政治动荡自20世纪70年代持续至今,实现阿富汗政治稳定的关键在于完成现代国家政治体制的建构.阿富汗的国家建设是全球性力量、区域性力量和国内独特的社会文化力量之间复杂博弈的过程.通过场域理论和过程分析的重新诠释,本文认为在阿富汗国家建构的历史过程中,其政治结构包含了内外多种竞争性力量,并在多次互动过程中造就了阿富汗碎片化的政治结构.而政治结构、精英惯习和外部干预之间形成的特殊组合类型,是阿富汗国家建构进程举步维艰和极具"特殊性"的根本原因.在实践过程中,阿富汗政治结构的脆弱性与频繁的外部干预相结合,使得阿富汗长期难以形成稳定的政治秩序.     

地缘政治、中东破碎地带与利比亚战争

本文认为,中东地缘政治版图的破碎性格局是导致该地区动荡不断、频频成为西方武力干涉目标的根本原因之一。一战后英法进行"委任统治"是导致中东地缘版图碎片化的罪恶渊薮。当前正在进行的利比亚战争,既是中东地缘版图碎片化的必然结果,同时又是进一步分裂阿拉伯世界的最新举措。     

中国现代人口统计之路（二）

在关注人口问题的社会学者中，陈达是下了深工夫的一位。抗日战争爆发后，他一边主持清华大学国情普查所，进行学术研究，一边同国民政府合作，借政府的力量推动人口普查与人事登记。然而，战争不但带来生活上的艰难与动荡。有时更给研究工作带来直接的干扰或损失。在当时的中国，进行科学的人口普查与人事登记工作是极不容易的。     

Pollinating animals in the urban environment

Urban environments contain habitats for flowering plants and their pollinating animal species. It is, however, unclear how the urban matrix influences plant-pollinator processes. We recorded plant diversity, floral abundance, flower visitor diversity and plot visits at 89 plant patches within the city of Zürich. The urban matrix surrounding each site was analyzed for the landscape metrics edge density and the extent of green area up to 200 m radius. The correlation between edge density and bee diversity and visitation frequency varied over the entire spatial range, while the correlation for syrphid diversity and visitation frequency levelled off at 80 m radius. In contrast, the correlations with green area were more consistent, with bee diversity levelling off after 100 m, while syrphid diversity and visits continued to increase. The variation in the correlation of bee visits was partly accounted for by the large contribution of honeybees. Plant diversity significantly affected bee diversity and visits, and syrphid visits. Floral abundance had a positive effect on bee visits and bee diversity. Syrphid diversity had a negative interaction with floral abundance and green area. The extent of green area increased bee diversity and visits, and syrphid visits, while edge density reduced visitation by bees. This study showed that plant diversity and floral abundance in urban environments promote pollinating flower visitors. The extent of green area and edge density are important urban mosaic attributes that affect pollinator abundance and visitation frequency at multiple scales.     

高校开展港澳区情教育的价值体认及策略

加强内地高校大学生对港澳区情教育消弭两地文化壁垒,舒缓心理认知偏见,促进两地高校交流与合作,理应成为我国国情教育的题中之义。截至目前,内地高校尚未系统将港澳区情教育纳入我国国情教育范畴,这不仅反映出我国国情教育的滞后性,并由此带来一系列问题。该文就此问题对高校开展港澳区情教育的价值体认和策略进行了探讨。     

A comparison of perceived health, attitudes to work, leisure time, and social welfare systems among people in a rural area in the north of Sweden and among people in the city of Stockholm

A problem attracting considerable attention in Sweden today is the substantial regional differences in sickness absence. The aim of the study was to investigate and compare how people, from a random sample of the population in both a rural area in the north of Sweden and the Swedish capital Stockholm, perceive their health, and what their attitudes are to work, leisure time and social welfare systems. Results showed that a larger proportion of those answering in Stockholm considered their health status to be "very good", compared with those in the rural area (p<0.0001). A majority in the rural area compared to the city of Stockholm reported a high or very high level of aches/pain (p<0.0001) and that work causes them physical problems p<0.0001). The population in both Stockholm and the rural area is of the opinion that the increase in sickness absence is mainly due to deterioration in the work environment. Almost half of the individuals in both the rural area and in Stockholm are of the opinion that many of those sick-listed are not actually ill. It may be that in the rural area in north Sweden people are more inclined to put their opinions to practice than those in Stockholm are.     

The Effects of Rural-to-Urban Migration on the Poverty Status of Youth in the 1980s1

Abstract The effects of rural-to-urban migration on the poverty status of migrants have not been adequately explored. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine poverty status before and after a rural-to-urban migration, a proportional hazards model of time spent in poverty that begins in rural areas is estimated to determine whether moving to an urban area reduces the time spent in poverty while controlling for individual educational and family characteristics. Results indicate that moving from a rural to an urban area reduces time spent in poverty for white and black women but the effects are not statistically significant for men. Further, to adequately understand the relationship between moving to an urban area and poverty, the analysis examines the effects of moving on the length of time spent not employed.     

对中东热点问题新变化的若干思考

2009年，中东地区的热点问题如巴以冲突、伊拉克形势、伊朗核问题等都出现了新变化。变化的因素有的来自中东地区各国的内部，有的则来自外部。这些变化势必会对中东地区的局势造成影响，本文试就这些变化和变化的因素进行探讨。     

Migration to less-popular rural areas in the Netherlands: Exploring the motivations

Migration into rural areas is often explained in terms of the rural idyll, the attraction of the countryside with its less hurried way of life in a quiet, spacious and green environment. However, this migration phenomenon has mostly been researched in attractive, amenity-rich, popular rural areas. This paper investigates the characteristics and motivations of migrants to less-popular rural areas using survey data (N = 664) for four municipalities in the North of the Netherlands. Our study shows a young group of in-migrants with relatively low incomes, but also a large proportion of working people and a considerable number of highly educated movers. Separating the motivations for choosing to live in a rural area in general from the motivations for choosing this specific rural area reveals that while the pull of the rural idyll is an important motivation for moving to a rural area in general, the reasons for choosing the specific rural area are a mixture of housing characteristics, the physical qualities of the environment, personal reasons and the low house prices in the area. Combining the motivations with the characteristics of the movers reveals the diversity within the movers group. Our analysis shows a group of movers motivated to live close to family and friends, consisting of return migrants, singles, the youngest and oldest age groups and also the lowest income group. The physical qualities of the environment attract a group of highly educated movers, people with high incomes and people aged between 35 and 64. The motivation of housing characteristics, referring in most cases to the availability of a specific house, is mentioned by a wide range of movers, but in particular by people moving from urban areas.     

Settlement evolution in the Arena society in the urban field

Post-modern spatial relationships at the outer edge of Toronto's urban field are interpreted within the context of the Arena Society and urban field concepts. Custom census tabulations of commuting and migration show that although there are strong migration ties between Toronto and communities in the south Georgian Bay study area, most work trips are short and link settlements to the next place up the local settlement hierarchy. Migration from rural townships to urban areas, and between communities in the study area is also significant. A case study of Thornbury demonstrates that it is an ‘Amenity/Affinity/Niche’ community as suggested by the two concepts. It has developed a strong retail/service sector in response to the post-modern conditions facilitating economic links to Toronto and the ‘Golden Horseshoe’, but has also attracted tourists and residents because of its accessible location and appealing amenity characteristics. Local diversification as suggested by the Arena Society concept has combined with the economic interaction proposed by the urban field literature to stimulate settlements in the study area. The Arena Society and urban field concepts are mirror images and should be employed together when interpreting post-industrial settlement evolution.     

缓解大型城市交通拥堵的国际经验和我国的解决对策

特大型城市中心城区是城市经济活动最活跃的区域,人口和建筑密度大。近年来,随着我国城市化和机动化的进程,其中心城区的车流量急剧增加,原有的道路设施已经不堪重负,交通拥堵的状况越来越严重。本文在总结了日本东京、英国伦敦、法国巴黎治理城市交通拥堵的经验的基础上,以我国特大型城市中心城区的交通拥堵为研究对象,对缓解我国特大型城市中心城区交通拥堵提出了对应的公共政策建议。     

Demographic,employment and development trends: the need for integrated planning

"The authors contend that problems associated with rapid demographic growth in developing countries have to be tackled through comprehensive population and human resource planning. Linkages between population and development are especially close in the area of labour markets. Following a discussion of the impacts of demographic factors on labour supply, labour demand and migration, the article proposes a practical framework in which population and human resource development plans may be operationalised. The concluding section briefly discusses the emerging area of population policy formulation and implementation."     

Third party buying: the trend and the consequences

The trend toward more buying of health insurance, life insurance, and pension or annuity plans through employers brings up problems of consumer sovereignty , problems of the incentives of service providers, and problems of availability of the services of insurance which are only available through group buying. In order to specify what social indicators would be useful in this area, this paper analyzes the incentive systems for consumers, for service providers, and for employers as they are affected by the trend toward third party buying. It assesses the indicators that are available on the trend, and the literature in health economics which tried to analyze the impact of the trend on the provision of health services and health costs. On this basis, needed social indicators for policy assessment in the area of third party buying are suggested.