What accounts for China''s trade balance dynamics?

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.     

Product evaluation bias under minimal group situations

The present study was designed to identify the source of product evaluation bias. Three experiments were conducted to see if the evaluation bias occur in the minimal group situation defined by [Tajifel, H., Billig, M., Bundy, R., & Flament, C. (1971). Social categorization and intergroup behavior. European Journal of Social Psychology, 1, 149–178], and to determine the factors responsible for making evaluation bias. Relative measure of product evaluation played a major role in producing an evaluation bias in minimal group situation. Similarly, relative measure of distribution was a critical factor affecting distribution bias. The possible boundary condition of [Tajifel, H., Billig, M., Bundy, R., & Flament, C. (1971). Social categorization and intergroup behavior. European Journal of Social Psychology, 1, 149–178] minimal group situation in evaluation bias were also discussed.     

On the dynamic measurement of economic openness

The empirical relationship between economic openness and economic performance is much debated in the economic literature. No definitive conclusions seem to be reached yet, part of the problem being the very measurement of economic openness of a national economy. In their article in the Journal of Policy Modeling, Ruíz Estrada & Yap (2006) propose a new method to measure economic openness and to empirically assess the openness–growth nexus as a new tool for policy-makers: the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model). The authors claim: (i) that their method is different from and more flexible than existing empirical methods, (ii) that higher levels of openness do not lead to income growth, and (iii) that customs unions perform better than free trade areas. This short article challenges the three claims of the authors.     

Gender role attitudes and attitudes to abortion: Are there gender differences?

This study examines gender differences in gender role attitudes and attitudes to abortion in a sample of 141 undergraduate students. Religion and religiosity were treated as covariates. Using the short version of Spence and Helmreich's (1978) Attitudes to Women Scale (AWS) taken from Spence and Hahn [Spence, J. T., & Hahn, E. D. (1997). The Attitudes Toward Women Scale and attitude to change in college students. Psychology of Women Quarterly, 21, 17–34] and the abortion attitudes scale developed by Stets and Leik [Stets, J. E., & Leik, R. K. (1993). Attitudes about abortion and varying attitude structures. Social Science Research, 22, 265–282], we found that females have more liberal attitudes to women and show stronger approval for women's autonomy in abortion decision-making. Given the low internal consistency of this three-item subscale, responses to the individual items were analyzed. More males than females feel that the father should have the right to prevent the mother from having an abortion. Most of the students indicate that the woman should have to tell the father before having an abortion and most disagree that the abortion is entirely a woman's decision. There were no gender differences on the moral acceptability and availability subscales. The overall results reflect somewhat conservative attitudes to women, and seemingly contradictory findings on the abortion issue in this sample of university students. Although they endorse the availability of abortion, at the same time they find it morally unacceptable and show weak support for women's autonomy in this decision. The implications of these findings for the advancement of women's rights in this country are discussed.     

Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach

The Armey curve developed by [Armey, R. (1995). The freedom revolution. Washington, DC: Rognery Publishing Co.] and [Vedder, R. K., & Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government size and economic growth. Joint Economic Committee] demonstrates that there is a non-linear relationship between government size and economic growth. In order to search for the threshold effects, this paper employs [Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica, 68(3), 575–603] threshold regression model to test whether the Armey curve exists in Taiwan, allowing for endogenous government size thresholds. We apply the two-sector production function developed by [Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. American Economic Review, 76(1), 191–203] to construct the threshold regression model. Three classifications of government size are tested in sequence as threshold variables. The result indicates that all three classifications of government size have a threshold effect and that a non-linear relationship of the Armey curve exists in Taiwan.     

Welfare losses due to monopoly: Korea's case

This paper estimates the negative effects of monopolies in Korea by measuring welfare loss due to monopolies. The results of this analysis reveal the following policy implications: (1) Welfare loss caused by monopolization represented was 7.56% of the gross value of shipments of 1998. (2) Welfare loss is greater in a firm whose monopoly power is greater. This result supports Leibenstein's research [Leibenstein, H. (1966). Allocative efficiency vs. X-efficiency. American Economic Review, 56(3), 391–415] that a firm with greater monopoly power will be more X-inefficiency. (3) Social cost for welfare loss in Korea is higher than that of the U.S. and Japan. In conclusion, it suggests that the government must implement stronger policies to regulate monopoly and promote competition.     

Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effect of allocative disturbances using Italian labour market data and a VECM (vector error correction model). In order to measure sectoral shifts in labour demand, we use Neumann-Topel's [Neumann, G.R., & Topel, R.H. (1991). Employment risk, diversification, and unemployment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106:1341–1365] employment-based dispersion index. In searching for a restricted cointegration space, we set down, and identify a stylized version of the battle of the mark-ups model. Lilien [Lilien, D. (1982). Sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment. Journal of Political Economy 90:777–793] argued that an important part of cyclical unemployment comes from permanent shifts in the composition of labour demand. Our findings emphasize that an important source of the persistence of unemployment comes from sectoral shifts.     

The Black Regulars: Buffalo Soldiers during the Indian war era as crime fighters and peacekeepers on the Western frontier, 1866–1892

The purpose of this review of the Buffalo Soldier is to explore their peacekeeping and crime fighting duties on the Western frontier during the period of 1866–1892. The Army was called upon to play a role in a number of controversial areas of American life and society: Southern Reconstruction fighting against the Native Americans, strikebreakers; and finally the railroad strikes of 1877. Following the Civil War, while performing some of these roles, the Army faced a great deal of hostility. It is one of the ironies of American History, as historians Foner [Foner, J. D. (1970). The United States soldier between two wars: Army life and reforms, 1865–1898. New York: Humanities Press] and Jackson and Katz [Jackson, S. D., & Katz, W. L. (1969). Preface of the Arno edition in under fire with the tenth U.S. cavalry. New York: Arno Press] have noted, that the Buffalo Soldier to earn their esteemed reputation as honorable fighting men, had to assist in the suppression of the Native American people and to act as strikebreakers. However, the literature shows that they also brought peace and civilization to the West through their law enforcement and other peacekeeping duties.     

A quantification of policy reform: an application to the Uruguay Round Negotiations on Agriculture

We employ an empirical general equilibrium model to quantify the welfare effects of trade policy reformation in the Uruguay Round Negotiations on Agriculture. Our approach is two-fold: first we focus on the primary players in the agricultural negotiations: the Cairns Group, the European Union, Japan, and the United States, where the players are defined as benevolent governments whose primary objective is to maximize total welfare, measured in terms of the equivalent variation (EV). Second, we take into account the divergent objectives of different interest groups within the targeted regions, namely from the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, where different weights given to these sectors depending on their political influence. Here the decision making authorities, or governments, are no longer assumed to focus solely on the maximization of the region’s EV welfare; instead they are assumed to maximize a payoff that is defined by the utilities of the agricultural and non-agricultural interest groups. This is modeled with a Political Preference Function that has a CES functional form.The results lead to several conclusions. The greater the reduction in protection, the greater the increase in welfare for most of the regions of the world. We contend that comparatively moderate reductions were enacted however, because of the relative political power that the domestic agricultural interests possessed in each region.Though the goal of the WTO/GATT is obviously to liberalize trade, only modest gains may be expected in the area of agriculture due to the internal conditions that have been advanced in this paper.     

Legal families and environmental protection: Is there a causal relationship?

In this paper we build on the analysis of La Porta et al. [La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113–1155], to investigate the importance of legal families in explaining the dissimilar levels of environmental quality indicators among countries with different legal systems. The main intuition behind our analysis is that the nations in which the rights of shareholders are more protected promote real and financial investment; this increases the speed at which the per capita income corresponding to the declining branch of the Environmental Kutznets Curve (EKC) is achieved. In econometrics different regressions analyses were performed, using as dependent variables three different kinds of pollutants (CO₂, fine suspended particulates and waste), and including as an explanation some financial variables never before considered in this kind of study.     

重新认识WTO

世界主义主张以WTO推进贸易自由化,促进各国经济和福利增长。民族主义则反对贸易自由化。WTO正是这个两种力量妥协的产物,它既体现了世界主义也包容了民族主义。现实的贸易体制是自由贸易与保护贸易畸轻畸重的组合。WTO并不像自由贸易理论所说的那样,对民族国家只有好处,没有坏处,它对民族国家有利也有弊。     

The Value of the WTO

Recent developments in global trade include actions by major global traders that lie outside the norms of behaviour of the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the last 20 years. Member frustrations with the slow pace of negotiations and concerns about strategies and behaviours of other members approaches to trade and economic development have created unprecedented stresses on a system of rules and commitments that have long encouraged global trade growth and increased economic integration. In this paper we explore the value of the multilateral trading system, particularly the WTO, and emphasize that the value goes well beyond crucial achievements such as tariff reductions and the prevention of a global trade war, but is also found in increased certainty and transparency. The WTO reduces uncertainty about trade policy thus promoting trade and investment. Membership of the WTO locks in beneficial reform and has a public good nature also fostering trade with non-members. We discuss the importance of the WTO as a multilateral forum to negotiate rules on segments of trade expected to grow in the future such as services and digital trade. We describe how the history of negotiations in the WTO provides useful insights for negotiations on such future topics.     

Is the long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation still continuing in the United States?

This research note uses comparable data on 13 broad occupational categories from the Current Population Survey to analyze changes in job segregation between men and women over the period 1972–2002. I find that the Sex Segregation Index declined by about 10 percentage points from 43.96% in 1972 to 34.10% in 2002. The long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation in the United States continued during the period 1993–2002. However, it did so at a slower pace than in the two previous decades. I also find that the pattern of changes in the sex composition of occupations and in the occupational structure that contributed to the decline in the Sex Segregation Index over the period 1972–2002 substantially shifted during the period 1993–2002. The sex composition effect represented about 65% of the reduction in segregation during the period 1972–1983 while it accounted for only about 25% during the period 1993–2002.     

International Trade and the Urbanization of Developing Countries: Evidence from Asia

Abstract

A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization: whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, the latter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.     

Caseworkers as a source of hope leading to perceptions of academic success for transitional age foster youth

Research among adolescent samples has consistently demonstrated that a hopeful mindset is associated with resilience and global well-being. Further, research suggests that hope is influenced from an early age from connections with supportive caregivers. However, because older youth in the child welfare system may lack supportive caregivers, alternative sources of hope may be needed. To test a theory that supportive child welfare caseworkers can serve as external sources of hope, we conducted a cross-sectional study of youth in the child welfare system from a single state (N = 149). Using surveys with established scales to measure the variables of interest, the study tested a structural equation model of (1) youth's external hope in their caseworker as a driver of (2) internal hope in themselves leading to (3) more positive perceptions of academic success. Perceptions of academic success were chosen as the final consequence of the model because academic success has been linked to many other variables of well-being across the lifespan. The results indicate that the proposed structural model fits the data well (χ² = 327.9, df = 150; P < 0.001; root-mean-square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.09 [90% confidence interval – CI: 0.076, 0.103]; comparative fit index [CFI]: 0.920; standardized root-mean-square residual [SRMR]: 0.05). The results indicate that youths' hope in themselves had origins in external hope in the caseworker. Moreover, the final consequence was an increase in perceptions of academic success. Such results have implications by revealing how case management services can positively influence foster youths' hope and thereby influence their academic success.     

Partisan ideology,veto players and their combined effect on productive and protective welfare policy: how the left still matters after all?

Quantitative analysis of the question whether ‘parties still matter’ has largely focused on the dynamics of aggregated expenditure-based dependent variables or protective welfare policies such as unemployment, sickness and family benefits. This article develops a series of pooled time-series cross-section regression specifications predicting changes in disaggregated protective welfare policies alongside productive welfare policies, namely family services, active labour market programmes and public education, across 17 Western democracies (1971–2010). In so doing, it employs the latest Comparative Manifesto Project [Volkens, A., P. Lehmann, N. Merz, S. Regel, and A. Werner. 2014. The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2014b. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB). Accessed January 2015. https://manifestoproject.wzb.eu/information/information] and Veto Player [Jahn, D., T. Behm, N. Düpont, and C. Oberst. 2012. Parties, Institutions & Preferences: Veto Player (Annual), Version 2012–02. Accessed January 2015. http://comparativepolitics.uni-greifswald.de/data.html] data to explore the effect of the ideological position of prime ministers’ parties, veto players and their combined effect on these welfare policy areas. The article confirms that Left and Right governments ceased to make any substantive difference for protective welfare policies from the early 1980s onwards. Yet, it also finds that positive Left partisan effects have largely persisted for productive welfare policies. In the era of global competition, Left party ideology has continued to be an important factor in realising a social investment perspective in practice; in terms of the expansion of family services, its effects have been contingent on the veto power Left prime ministers faced.     

On Decomposing Net Final Values: Eva,Sva and Shadow Project

A decomposition model of Net Final Values (NFV), named Systemic Value Added (SVA), is proposed for decision-making purposes, based on a systemic approach introduced in Magni [Magni, C. A. (2003), Bulletin of Economic Research 55(2), 149–176; Magni, C. A. (2004) Economic Modelling 21, 595–617]. The model translates the notion of excess profit giving formal expression to a counterfactual alternative available to the decision maker. Relations with other decomposition models are studied, among which Stewart’s [Stewart, G.B. (1991), The Quest for Value: The EVA™ Management Guide, Harper Collins, Publishers Inc]. The index here introduced differs from Stewart’s Economic Value Added (EVA) in that it rests on a different interpretation of the notion of excess profit and is formally connected with the EVA model by means of a shadow project. The SVA is formally and conceptually threefold, in that it is economic, financial, accounting-flavoured. Some results are offered, providing sufficient and necessary conditions for decomposing NFV. Relations between a project’s SVA and its shadow project’s EVA are shown, all results of Pressacco and Stucchi [Pressacco, F. and Stucchi, P. (1997), Rivista di Matematica per le Scienze Economiche e Sociali 20, 165–185] are proved by making use of the systemic approach and the shadow counterparts of those results are also shown.     

The Right to Remain Silent

The paper points out that in dynamic games a player may be better-off if other players do not know his choice of strategy. That is, a player may benefit by not revealing (or not pre-determining) the choice of his action in an information set he (thereby) hopes will not be reached. He would be better-off by exercising his ``right to remain silent' if he believes –- as the empirical evidence shows –- that players display aversion to ``Knightian uncertainty'. In this case, a player who behaves strategically, may wish to avoid revealing his strategy. This is true under various interpretations of the notion of ``strategy profiles'.