基于GIS和SPSS的聊城市人口压力空间格局研究

根据影响聊城市人口压力的内在矛盾和外在因素。确定了聊城市人口压力评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法计算了人口压力指数,再通过聚类分析等方法,定量分析了1998—2007年聊城市人口压力的空间格局。借助Ar-cGIS9．2软件采用格网法对聊城市人口压力空间格局进行制图显示。结果表明。1998—2007年。聊城市人口压力沿东北一西南轴线呈现明显的地域特征,在空间上出现聚集效应,高唐县人1：1压力指数在_0．14-0．22之间,人口压力适中,人口与社会经济、资源环境发展协调;东昌府区、临清市、茌平县和东阿县人口压力指数在0．1．0．99之间。人口压力较小。人口承栽力较强;冠县、阳谷县和莘县人口压力指数在0．79—1．68之间,人口压力较大,人口与社会经济、资源环境等发展不协调。这种空间分布格局与各地区的有形资源和无形资源都有关系。无须资源的影响比重越来越大。     

我国老年人健康自评影响因素分析

健康自评是研究对象对自身健康的主观感受,是调查中经常运用的变量。健康自评能够反映健康状态的主观和客观两个方面,因此健康自评可以作为评价老年人健康状况的一个重要指标。采用2002年全国老年调查数据,做不同老年人群体的健康自评的差异性分析并进一步探究影响因素。旨在回答我国老年人健康自评的影响因素,对老年人自身和政策制定者提供参考依据。健康的生活方式对健康自评有积极的影响,身体的健康和健康自评有很强的相关性,老年人的社会人口学特征对健康自评影响十分有限。     

The Use of Social Surveys to Measure Drought and the Impact of Drought

Although the term drought is widely used, defining it is conceptually and technically difficult and there is no generally accepted definition. This article uses data from an Australian social survey of people living in agricultural areas to test the validity of using general social surveys to ask respondents whether they are living in an area that is drought affected. Strong evidence is found that the survey based self-report measure of drought is both internally consistent and correlated with the standard Australian meteorological (rainfall deficit) measures of drought and thus provides a valid measure of whether individuals are experiencing the drought. The relationship between self-report drought and the standard meteorological measure of drought and financial hardship and changes in financial position is estimated. While a negative association between drought and financial position is found for both measures, the relationship is stronger for the self-report than the meteorological definition. The self-report measure is more closely linked to the economic, social and community impacts of low rainfall and provides greater flexibility in the geographic area over which drought is measured—thus survey data about drought allows respondents to define the area in way which is meteorologically, topographically or agriculturally meaningful.     

Carrying Capacity Reconsidered

The concept of carrying capacity has gained broad currency, although some population ecologists are dubious about its value. This paper assesses the utility of the concept and develops an alternative understanding of population growth. First, carrying capacity is viewed in historical perspective and evidence that is supposed to support it is criticized. Then the underlying assumptions upon which it rests are reexamined. Limits to growth are seen to be both multiple and variable. The mechanism that is supposed to regulate population is critically reviewed. And the assumptions of balance in nature and equilibrium in biotic communities are reevaluated. These assumptions having been found wanting, population growth is reassessed in relation to environmental variability. The strategies by which different species cope with variability are described, and the windfall effect, which causes some populations to grow rapidly and then collapse, is identified. Finally, it is suggested that carrying capacity may be a self-validating belief and that is has limited relevance to human population growth, which is better understood in other ways.     

A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability

A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets.     

发挥计生优势 推进电子健康

健康是关系人民福祉与国家可持续发展的一个重要公共议题,也是中国人口发展战略的一个重要组成部分。健康永远是人的最基本需求之一,也是人实现全面发展的重要基础。全民健康水平在很大程度上决定着一个国家的人口素质,它既是人口发展的重要基础,也是一个国家经济社会政治文化发展的重要测度指标之一。健康不仅仅是生理问题,也是心理问题、精神问题、情感问题、生活习惯与行为方式问题;健康也不仅仅是个体问题,也是家庭问题、代际问题、社会问题;健康更不仅仅是单纯的医学问题,它与人口发展、社会管理、技术进步、     

英国的社区照顾及启示

社区照顾是英国社会福利发展进程中出现的社会化养老服务方式,主要由＂由社区照顾＂和＂社区内照顾＂两部分构成,经过几十年的变迁,英国的社区照顾愈加成熟,具有鲜明的特点,我国老人的养老可从中获得有益的启示。     

意愿与行为：外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动①--基于东部“人口倒挂”藕村的个案分析

外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动,是考量外来人口适应并融入城市社会的重要指标。基于浙江省L区“人口倒挂”藕村的调查,研究发现：（1）本地居民对外来人口的主观评价总体正面偏上,但接纳意愿较低,不愿与外来人口建立比较亲密的关系;（2）外来人口对本地居民的主观评价总体负面偏下,但接纳意愿较高,希望与本地居民建立比较亲密的关系;（3）外来人口与本地居民之间的互动行为,总体具有偶尔性、封闭性、浅层性的特点,互动情况不容乐观,但彼此基本相安无事;（4）无论是互动意愿还是互动行为,年轻一代相比年长一代总体具有更多积极表现,但是也具有更强的互动张力,即年轻一代之间更易于发生矛盾冲突。研究认为,当前外来人口与本地居民之间的互动在某种意义上是“纠结型互动”,相比“摩擦性互动”,这是一种处于变迁之中的新型且积极的关系形态。     

Gibrat’s law for countries

A reassessment of Gibrat’s Law in the context of country size is carried out in this paper. In addition, how similarly population is distributed in cities and countries is analyzed from a temporal perspective. Although evidence of Gibrat’s Law is found, it is weaker than that previously established in Rose (J Money Credit Bank 38(8):2225–2246, 2006). This is due to the methodology applied and is especially appreciable in very small countries. Nonetheless, we observe that the population growth process in countries is similar to that of cities. As a result, the similarities between how the population is distributed in these two geographical categories have increased over time.     

A brief analysis on the survey of the present population situation of the Miao nationality in Sichuan Province]

The Miao nationality is a minority in China which has a total population of 5.03 million. In Sichuan Province, the Miao population is about 130,000, representing approximately 4% of the entire Miao population. In 1981 and 1982, surveys were conducted to investigate the Miao population. Results from these surves are summarized as follows: (1) The age structure of the Miao nationality is young, and the percentage of young people is high. A large number of children who were born in the 1960s and 1970s have now reached the age for marriage, a new high point of births will be created soon, and family planning will become a very urgent problem; (2) Fertility is very high, about 5.05 children for each married woman; (3) Marriage between close relatives is rather popular and this custom is harmful to the next generation, and the rate for abnormal babies and deaths is rising; (4) A popular belief which exits among the Miao people is that more children represent good fortune for the parents. It is quite obvious that urgent work is needed in order to develop family planning in the areas inhabited by the Miao people. Both the quantity and quality of the Miao nationality should be adjusted in order to cope with a changing world.     

子女教育与家庭贫困的代际变动

子女教育是影响农村家庭贫困变动的一个重要因素。本文通过对14省区609户农村家庭调查结果分析,发现子女教育有加深父代家庭贫困状况的迹象,子女接受教育程度越高,自身一代家庭摆脱贫困的比例越高,并且能传承下代家庭使其免受贫困;家庭贫困代际变动的教育断裂点为15年(大专教育)。     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

Money value of consumption and income of rural families: Two measures of economic status

In this study a measure of economic status, money value of consumption, is defined and its relationship to income is examined using data collected from 628 U.S. rural families and 1170 North Carolina rural families. Findings suggest that for rural families money value of consumption is linearly related to income, that the variance of money value of consumption is proportional to income and that money value of consumption is more equally distributed than income. Money value of consumption is more closely related to income for one-and four-or-more-person families than for two-or-three-person families. A comparison of how the two measures (money value of comsumption and income) rank rural families by consumption status indicates that income is most likely to rank families inaccurately at very low and very high levels of income. Findings should assist in the appropriate interpretation of income when it is used as a proxy for consumption.     

Books and publications received

In this paper the hypothesis put forward by J. C. Caldwell in a number of recent articles, including one in this journal is tested, that there are social and economic increasing returns to scale to family size. Using two village samples of household data collected in Bangladesh in 1977, it is shown that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between adjusted consumption of rice per head and family size. This result holds true when age and size of landholding are taken into account. From this, it is concluded that the hypothesis is not empirically supported by the data from Bangladesh. This result is partially explained by the extreme poverty of the region and the fact that women are exploited in Bangladesh society.     

长春市现代服务业现状及发展趋势分析

现代服务业的发达程度是社会现代化水平的重要标志。从近年数据看,长春市现代服务业总量增长1倍;现代服务业和传统服务业比重平分秋色。现代服务业占GDP比重保持在1/5上下浮动。按照笔者预测,长春市未来现代服务业增加值占服务业增加值的比重将持续下降。未来长春市现代服务业比重最大的4个行业的发展态势为:最被看好的是教育业,其发展将持续上升;最有发展潜力的是租赁和商务服务业;变化中发展的是金融业,虽然其发展态势有降有升,但最近呈上升态势;最让人担忧的是信息传输、计算机服务、软件业,下降的速度过快。     

Declining fertility and policy intervention in Europe: Some lessons for Australia?

The contemporary fertility situation in Europe is outlined with emphasis on trends in the late 1990s. It is shown that while most European countries have lower fertility levels than Australia there is wide variation between countries with respect to both their levels of fertility and their rate of fertility decline. While almost all countries are experiencing fertility decline the rate of decline is higher and the fertility is lower in countries where the male-breadwinner model is strongest. Attempts to influence fertility in European nations are discussed, particularly those involving the introduction of family-friendly policies. It is clear that despite popular beliefs to the contrary, societies where male-breadwinner models influence policy most are those with lowest fertility. The lesson for Australia is that family-friendly policies not only are desirable from the perspective of moving toward gender equality but are likely to stabilize or perhaps even marginally increase fertility.     

Birth variations in populations which practise family planning

Abstract In the first section it is demonstrated that permanent periodicities may appear in populations, in which fertility occurs at two or more ages, separated by ages, in which there is no fertility at all. It is also shown that where periodicity does disappear, this may take much longer than is usually assumed, before the stable age distribution is attained. The last section of the paper is based on Swedish data relating to female fertility for single-year cohorts and for periods. It is demonstrated that fertility behaviour of cohorts from different decades has varied considerably, not least as regards birth timing. This explains why the period fertility rate has varied in such an irregular fashion, whereas the rate for cohorts has moved much more regularly; after the original decline to an all-time low for the cohorts born around 1905, there has been a slow, and on the whole, regular increase. This increase is largely explained by a rise in nuptiality. If the total fertility rate required for reproduction is computed, it is seen that no cohorts born after about 1885 have reproduced themselves, and that for the cohorts born between 1895 and 1920 the gap was considerable.     

Birth variations in populations which practise family planning

In the first section it is demonstrated that permanent periodicities may appear in populations, in which fertility occurs at two or more ages, separated by ages, in which there is no fertility at all. It is also shown that where periodicity does disappear, this may take much longer than is usually assumed, before the stable age distribution is attained.

The last section of the paper is based on Swedish data relating to female fertility for single-year cohorts and for periods. It is demonstrated that fertility behaviour of cohorts from different decades has varied considerably, not least as regards birth timing. This explains why the period fertility rate has varied in such an irregular fashion, whereas the rate for cohorts has moved much more regularly; after the original decline to an all-time low for the cohorts born around 1905, there has been a slow, and on the whole, regular increase. This increase is largely explained by a rise in nuptiality. If the total fertility rate required for reproduction is computed, it is seen that no cohorts born after about 1885 have reproduced themselves, and that for the cohorts born between 1895 and 1920 the gap was considerable.     

Urban determinants of racial differentiation in infant mortality

This study relates differential socioeconomic status between blacks and whites to racial differentiation in infant mortality rates. The basic assumption is that decreases in socioeconomic differentiation and related variables lead to decreases in the black—white infant mortality differential. A comparative approach based on aggregate measures of socioeconomic differentiation is utilized to compare sixty-one United States urban places. Path analysis shows that neonatal mortality differentiation is virtually unaffected by socioeconomic differentials while decreased racial differences in hospital births tend to increase neonatal mortality differentiation. In contrast, postneonatal differentiation is affected by socioeconomic differentiation, especially along the dimensions of income, education, and regional location. It is concluded that despite some suggestions that infant mortality is no longer responsive to socioeconomic factors, postneonatal differentation is affected by socioeconomic differentials when comparison is based on city units.