Institutionalized motivation for fertility limitation in China

Abstract After initial misgivings based on orthodox Marxist ideology regarding population control, the People's Republic of China officially came out in favour of population limitation. The government denies the dire Malthusian prophecy that population will outstrip China's supply of food and natural resources. Instead it supports population limitation to ease the costs of economic growth, which under Chinese conditions requires a strong labour force and a concentration of capital in productive enterprises rather than a high rate of consumption. By applying the experience of the developed nations, China has reduced pre-industrial levels of mortality and morbidity. This has decreased the expense to society of a non-productive populace which dies before it repays the costs of its upbringing and training. As a result, China undoubtedly has a high rate of population growth. Lower fertility will lessen the proportion of children to adult workers and will release females for employment; for these reasons the government advocates fertility control. Observers lack data from the two national censuses (1953-54 and 1964) and registration system to assess China's success in fertility reduction. Instead the patterns of social mobility and social control which shape reproductive motivation must be evaluated. In so doing I address myself to one main question: how has China's approach to economic development in the past five years affected the motivation of her youth to reduce fertility?     

Strength of fertility motivation and contraceptive use in Nepal

The study's purpose was to test whether new survey questions on strength of fertility motivation, included in Nepal's 1986 Fertility and Family Planning Survey, enable improved prediction of current contraceptive use. Intent to use contraception in the future was also tested, over and above the effects of socioeconomic background. While controlling selected demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics of the respondents, the authors found the effect of the strength of fertility motivation on current contraceptive use to be substantial and highly significant statistically. Nevertheless, the background factors largely captured the effect of motivational strength on current use when motivational strength was deleted from the model, inasmuch as measures of global fit declined only slightly as a consequence of the deletion. These findings indicate that respondents' demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics affect motivational strength, so that motivational strength does not have a large independent effect on use. These results raise the question of whether strength of fertility motivation can be affected by educational efforts mounted by family planning programs to increase contraceptive use. The analysis shows that strength of motivation does have some independent effect on contraceptive use, and it is quite possible that this independent effect could be enhanced by educational programs operating independently of the socioeconomic characteristics of program recipients. Because the 1986 survey lacks relevant data, we have not been able to explore this possibility empirically.     

Understanding the link between the economy and teenage sexual behavior and fertility outcomes

We use individual-level data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and state unemployment rates to examine how the economy affects fertility and its proximate determinants for several groups based on gender, age (15–17 and 18–20 groups), and race/ethnicity. We find that, for 15- to 17-year-old females, several behaviors leading to pregnancies and pregnancies themselves are higher when the unemployment rate is higher, which is consistent with the counter-cyclical fertility patterns for this group. For 18- to 20-year-old males, the results suggested counter-cyclical patterns of fertility behaviors/outcomes for whites, but pro-cyclical patterns for blacks. This research was funded by grant R03HD47407 from the National Institute on Child and Health Development.     

A framework for modelling fertility motivation in couples

We present a theoretical framework that organizes individual-level fertility motivations into a couple-level model. One feature of this framework is the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour (TDIB) sequence through which the fertility motivations of individuals produce instrumental behaviours that are designed to promote or prevent childbearing. A second feature of this framework is the cognitive capacity of individuals to perceive a partner's motivational structure. We combine these two features into a dyad-level model that addresses interactions between partners at each step of the motivational sequence. We elaborate this model first with respect to the perception of partner's motivational structure and second with respect to the combination of partner's and own motivational structure. In the process we consider how couple-level processes of communication, influence, and disagreement can be measured and studied through these interactions. We conclude with a summary discussion of the framework and a consideration of the implications it has for a theory of reproductive psychology, population surveys, and family planning services.     

Fertility desires and fertility outcomes

Over the last 30 years Australian fertility rates have fallen more than could have been predicted from changes in the numbers of children desired by women when they first married. This paper charts changes in desired and completed fertility in Australia, matches originally desired fertility with that ultimately achieved and explores some factors which may affect the relation between fertility desires and fertility outcomes.     

Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States

This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility.     

Ethnic variations in the relationship between income and fertility

The effects of husband'spotential andrelative incomes on completed fertility, as well as their effects on certain parity progression probabilities, are examined within samples of Anglos, Blacks and Mexican Americans. Relationships are estimated using data from the one-percent 1960 and 1970 U.S. Public Use Samples. The results reveal different patterns of relationship by ethnicity between the measures of income and the measures of fertility. The effects on completed fertility of the income measures are positive for Anglos and negative for Blacks, while in the case of Mexican Americans the effect ofpotential income is negative and that ofrelative income is positive. Income effects on the parity progression probabilities are similar in pattern to those from the analyses using completed fertility, although somewhat different patterns tend to appear at different birth orders, especially among Anglos.     

Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand

Based on special tabulations of 1960 census data on migration within Thailand, this analysis attempts to assess the role of migration in the urbanization process and the relation between migration and fertility. The importance of migration to urban growth is evidenced by the clearcut positive relationship between the percentage of persons classified as either lifetime or 5-year migrants and the urban character of their 1960 place of residence. Yet, the evidence also points to an increasing proportion of urban growth in recent decades attributable to natural increase. The specific relation between fertility and migration varies depending on the measure of migration used: Compared to nonmigrants in their place of destination, the fertility levels of lifetime migrants are not very different; but those of 5-year migrants are considerably lower. Regardless of migration status, however, fertility level is markedly lower for those living in urban places compared to those in rural places. This suggests the important role of both migration and urbanization in affecting fertility levels in Thailand.     

Husbands' and wives' relative influence on fertility decisions and outcomes

This research was supported by NICHD Center for Population Research Contract No. HD52807 and Research Scientist Development Award No. AA00002 from NIAAA to the author. The important contributions of Philip Bardsley to this research and to earlier drafts of this paper are gratefully acknowledged. Thanks are also due to Tom Day and Linda Moody Chilingar for their data analytic and statistical skills and to Cathey Heron for her assistance throughout the course of this project.When couples were in conflict about short-term fertility, wives had the same or somewhat greater influence over actual outcomes than did husbands, especially when the wife was the one who did not desire a child. Antecedent wife demographic, attitudinal and couple interactional variables had more influence on short-term fertility decisions made than did antecedent husband variables. However, inclusion of husband data as well as wife data increased discrimination between those deciding to have or not have a child.     

An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY

This paper examines the extent to which differences in welfare generosity across states leads to interstate migration. Using microdata from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) between 1979 and 1992, we employ a quasi-experimental design that utilizes the categorical eligibility of the welfare system. The pattern of cross-state moves among poor single women with children, who are likely to be eligible for benefits is compared to the pattern among other poor households. We find little evidence indicating that welfare-induced migration is a widespread phenomenon. Received: 3 April 1997/Accepted: 4 September 1998     

A comparison between current Indian fertility and late nineteenth-century Swedish and Finnish fertility

Abstract The paper aims to probe causes of the current high level of the crude birth rate in India. This is accomplished by comparing the current Indian fertility level with that of Sweden and Finland during the last quarter of the nineteenth century. By utilizing marital distribution, age distribution and age-specific marital fertility rates of the three countries, the basic demographic causes of high fertility in India can be established. In the second part, the factors causing age-specific marital fertility rates in India to be lower than nineteenth-century Sweden and Finland are discussed. This is done by comparing the levels of the followingsix variables, operating within marriage, between Indian and Scandinavian cultures: (1) Abstinence - voluntary and involuntary, (2) Frequency of coitus, (3) Incidence of sterility - primary and secondary, (4) Contraception and sterilization, (5) Incidence of foetal mortality and (6) Incidence of induced abortions.     

Understanding links between adolescent health and educational attainment

The educational and economic consequences of poor health during childhood and adolescence have become increasingly clear, with a resurgence of evidence leading researchers to reconsider the potentially significant contribution of early-life health to population welfare both within and across generations. Meaningful relationships between early-life health and educational attainment raise important questions about how health may influence educational success in young adulthood and beyond, as well as for whom its influence is strongest. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, I examine how adolescents’ health and social status act together to create educational disparities in young adulthood, focusing on two questions in particular. First, does the link between adolescent health and educational attainment vary across socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups? Second, what academic factors explain the connection between adolescent health and educational attainment? The findings suggest that poorer health in adolescence is strongly negatively related to educational attainment, net of both observed confounders and unobserved, time-invariant characteristics within households. The reduction in attainment is particularly large for non-Hispanic white adolescents, suggesting that the negative educational consequences of poor health are not limited to only the most socially disadvantaged adolescents. Finally, I find that the link between adolescent health and educational attainment is explained by academic factors related to educational participation and, most importantly, academic performance, rather than by reduced educational expectations. These findings add complexity to our understanding of how the educational consequences of poor health apply across the social hierarchy, as well as why poor health may lead adolescents to complete less schooling.In a presidential address to the Population Association of America, Palloni (2006) emphasized the need for research on early-life health as a mechanism in the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. Although poor health is well known as a consequence of childhood and family socioeconomic conditions, it is also clear that illness during childhood and adolescence has lasting educational and socioeconomic effects (Case, Fertig, and Paxson 2005; Conley and Bennett 2000; Smith 2005). What remains less clear is how health early in life influences educational success in young adulthood and beyond. Do those with a health disadvantage graduate from high school at lower rates, for example, because they perform poorly in school or because they and their families develop reduced expectations for the future? In addition, how do race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status complicate these relationships? Our understanding of how health’s influence on educational attainment differs across groups is unclear.This article considers these complexities by asking several questions. It confirms that health during adolescence is strongly negatively associated with educational attainment and then examines this relationship in greater depth than is typical. First, I examine variation in the link between health and educational attainment along socioeconomic and racial/ethnic lines. Are the families of adolescents in poorer health better able to mitigate the negative educational consequences of a condition if they are socially and/or economically advantaged? Or do youths in these families suffer an equal or greater disadvantage? Second, I evaluate the role of academic factors—specifically, educational participation, performance, and expectations—that may explain the connection between adolescents’ health and educational attainment. I examine these questions with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), with an overall goal of understanding the ways in which health and social status act together to create educational disparities in the early life course.     

独生子女和非独生子女生育意愿差异的比较研究——基于江苏省生育意愿和生育行为调查

根据“江苏省生育意愿和生育行为”基线调查数据,本文使用交叉分析,多元线性回归等方法,探讨独生子女和非独生子女生育意愿的差异。结果表明,在意愿生育数量、意愿生育性别和意愿生育时间方面独生子女和非独生子女没有显著差异。     

A theoretical analysis of antecedents of young couples’ fertility decisions and outcomes

Longitudinal survey data from 509 couples who at Time 1 interview had recently married or had their first child did not support the hypothesis that demographic factors influence fertility intentions, decisions, and outcomes only indirectly through their effects on attitudes and motivations. Husbands’ and wives’ attitudes exerted reciprocal influence on one another. However, while husbands’ sex-role traditionalism and motivation for parenthood strongly influenced wives’ traditionalism and motivation in the case of recently married couples, this pattern was reversed for riew parents. Birth control use was directly affected by wives’ fertility intentions, but not by husbands’ intentions. Difficulties in examining couple interaction variables such as relative power and the possible limitations of fitting these data to a complex theoretical model using LISREL are discussed.     

Toward a general theory of fertility: A causal modeling approach

A general theory of fertility is derived hypothesizing that the demand for children is primarily an outcome of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socioeconomic constraints. Two broad social psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first suggests that the attitudes or tastes of family members influence the demand for children. The second maintains that the nature of the husband-wife interaction (in terms of power, conflict, decision making, and marital satisfaction) determines family size. Socioeconomic variables, in the form of the normative social structure and social stratification, and economic constraints, such as income and price, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The overall theory is tested on two independent samples—one in Ankara, Turkey, the second in Mexico City, Mexico—using a structural equation methodology.     

The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.