Amos Tversky and the Ascent of Behavioral Economics

Amos Tversky investigated and explained a wide range of phenomena that lead to anomalous human decisions. His two most significant contributions, both written with Daniel Kahneman, are the decision-making heuristics—representativeness, availability, and anchoring—and prospect theory. Tversky's concepts have broadly influenced the social sciences. In economics, they gave rise to the burgeoning field of behavioral economics. This field, skeptical of perfect rationality, emphasizes validation of modeling assumptions, integration of micro-level data on decisions (including experimental evidence), and adoption of lessons from psychology. Tversky's contributions are reviewed, assessed using citation analysis, and placed in historical context. Fertile areas for behavioral economics research are identified.     

Behavioral insurance: Theory and experiments

“Risk and insurance” provides an illustrative set of decisions made in the presence of uncertainty. As behavioral models become more integrated into economics and finance, many of their effects are illustrated quite well within insurance markets. Especially noteworthy are the complementary roles of theory and experiments. This article reviews the interactive role of experiments and theory in analyzing insurance demand from a behavioral perspective. We pay special attention to several models of underinvestment in insurance or in other risk-mitigation markets.     

试论劳动价值论的适用范围

劳动价值论在解释现实经济现象时存在一定的困难 ,不是劳动价值论自身逻辑和体系问题 ,而是劳动价值论所研究的价值理论与价格理论、分配理论有联系也有区别 ,劳动价值论有其自身的适用范围 ,必须科学界定劳动价值论的适用范围 ,从历史唯物主义和经济学的角度重新认识劳动价值论的科学性和伟大意义     

大学生创业融资研究综述

国外对创业融资的研究以资本结构理论为主线,为我国大学创业融资的研究提供了理论观点和研究方法。国内对大学生创业融资理论和实践的研究主要集中于创业融资需求与供给、创业融资渠道、创业融资风险、创业融资支持体系等几个方面。     

德国历史学派与!" 世纪经济学方法论之争的启示

在资本、商品与信息在世界范围内流通的全球化时代,一个随之而来的问题是,来自不同社会与不同文化传统的人们应当以什么样的方式面对这个时代,并且在保持差异的前提下和谐相处。之所以出现这个问题,是因为全球化时代的技术进步与创新改变了物质生活的样貌。但是,“大量传送而无社会中介”的信息未曾将第三世界贫民窟的居民的行为变得像好莱坞电影中的男女主角一样,却使他们感到陌生、吸引、迷惑与无助。实际上,这大概是所有人的困境。在四处流传的信息中包含着如此多样的行为方式,以致于人们只好转过身去,在“某种文化遗产、某种语言、某种…     

Planning in firms as an interactive process

This paper discusses the possible uses of economic analysis for strategic planning decisions in firms. It proposes an approach which emphasizes the role of common knowledge for decentralized parallel decision processes. Planning is interpreted as an interactive process among a set of agents who use a plan to formalize a theory of action and an invalidating procedure. In the course of action the agents are supposed to cope with uncertainty as long as the chosen theory remains justified. This approach has strong connections with some recent trends in managerial economics and in particular with the current work in the production sphere which similarly illuminates the role of common knowledge through objective physical flows to promote global efficiency of the firm.     

Assessment and decision-making in a case of child neglect and abuse using an attachment perspective

Assessment and decision-making in complex cases of child abuse and neglect is a difficult and taxing process. Although social workers have become increasingly good at collecting information, often under the direction of agency checklists and manuals, there is less confidence in knowing how to make sense of that information for purposes of assessment and decision-making. Theories help organize knowledge and attachment theory is proving to be a powerful player in helping practitioners make sense of what they know. The paper outlines the basic tenets of attachment theory. When adapted to the context of social work, a key principle of an attachment-based practice is the recognition that young children develop a range of adaptive strategies that are designed to help them cope with, survive, and function in whatever caregiving environment they happen to find themselves, including ones in which there is abuse and neglect. Although these strategies are functional within the context of adverse caregiving environments, they carry the risk of children suffering a variety of developmental impairments and failure to develop social competence. A case is described in which there are elements of abuse and neglect both within and across the generations. An attachment perspective is used to analyse and assess the quality and character of parenting and the different adaptive strategies developed by each child in the caregiving context in which they have found themselves. The assessment is then used to inform the decision whether or not to leave the children in the care of their mother or to place them with a long-term substitute family, with or without contact.     

试论产业集群的形成和演化 --基于自组织理论的观点

产业集群是世界各国普遍存在的经济现象,一直是经济学研究的热点.自组织理论为我们提供了一个解释产业集群现象的新的理论工具.作为一种特殊的组织形式,产业集群不仅呈现出一般的组织特性,而且,无论从整体观察其静态的结构特征和形成条件,还是从内部视角分析其动态的形成过程和演化机制,产业集群都具有显著的自组织特性.     

邓小平制度经济理论与我国经济制度变迁

邓小平制度经济理论可以归纳为七个方面:(1)制度是生产力发展的关键因素,制度的优越性在于它能更好地促进生产力的发展;(2)在各种制度中,产权制度的作用最重要;(3)中国的宏观制度变迁是个渐进的过程;(4)人是现实的人,具有机会主义倾向,制度可以抑制人的机会主义动机及行为;(5)意识形态是重要的非正式制度安排,它可以降低正式制度的运行成本;(6)中国制度改革的关键是下放权力;(7)稳定的环境是市场经济运行的最基本条件。邓小平的制度经济理论对我国的社会经济制度变迁指明了方向,提供了理论基础。     

Autism and theory of mind in everyday life

The theory of mind account of autism suggests that the key social, communicative and imaginative impairments which characterise this disorder result from an inability to represent mental states. While this account has been largely confirmed by experimental work, there has, as yet, been little examination of autistic children's theory of mind outside the laboratory. The present study used the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales to measure real life social adaptation, through the report of care-givers. In particular, we were interested to find out more about the real life competence of those few autistic subjects who do pass tests of theory of mind. Autistic, mentally handicapped and normally developing children were tested with two standard theory of mind tasks. Groups of subjects who passed or failed these tasks were contrasted. We supplemented the Vineland Scales with items designed to distinguish social behaviour which necessitates theory of mind (termed Interactive) and social behaviour which could be learned (Active). We also asked about maladaptive behaviour of two sorts: Bizarre behaviour typical of autism, and Antisocial behaviour at least some of which would appear to require consideration of beliefs (e.g. deception). We found that the normally developing and mentally handicapped children showed a great deal of evidence of “mind-reading” in their everyday lives, regardless of theory of mind task performance. By contrast, in the autistic group, only those individuals who passed the false belief tasks showed insightful Interactive and Antisocial behaviour. These passers also had better verbal and communication abilities. The autistic subjects who failed the laboratory tasks showed little or no evidence of understanding mental states in their everyday lives, but many did show a high degree of simple Active sociability. Closer analysis showed that only some of the passers showed good evidence of theory of mind in their real life behaviour, and that even these were somewhat impaired relative to their age and developmental level. Implications for the theory of mind account of autism are discussed.     

Family Configurations and Child-Care Patterns: Familes with Two or More Preschool-Age Children

Objectives . This article examines the extent to which mothers must find child-care arrangements for more than one preschool child and, when they do, the strategies they adopt to juggle their work and family roles. Methods . We use national data from numerous studies with information on fertility and child care among employed mothers with children. Results . We find that it is a common life-course experience for mothers to need child care for two or more preschool-age children. Employed mothers' preferred strategy for child care for their multiple preschool-age children is to place all preschoolers in the same type of arrangement, choosing parental care more often and center care less often than employed mothers with one preschooler. Conclusions . Previous child-care research has ignored the complexities parents face when they must make child-care decisions about all their preschool-age children simultaneously. Child-care decisions need to be studied within the family and household context.     

Status quo bias in decision making

Most real decisions, unlike those of economics texts, have a status quo alternative—that is, doing nothing or maintaining one's current or previous decision. A series of decision-making experiments shows that individuals disproportionately stick with the status quo. Data on the selections of health plans and retirement programs by faculty members reveal that the status quo bias is substantial in important real decisions. Economics, psychology, and decision theory provide possible explanations for this bias. Applications are discussed ranging from marketing techniques, to industrial organization, to the advance of science.     

Improving decision‐making in care order proceedings: A multijurisdictional study of court decision‐makers' viewpoints

Child welfare removals of children are among the most invasive decisions a state can make toward its citizens, and typically it is the courts that make these decisions. These interventions are regularly exposed to criticism. In this paper, we examine if and how care order proceedings could be improved in England, Finland, Norway, and California, USA. We have asked the judiciary decision‐makers about their view on what should be improved. Our findings show that the organization of the proceedings, including time and staff, are identified as issues in all four systems. Furthermore, the preparations by the child welfare agency are also mentioned as an issue, for English, Finnish, and Californian decision‐makers. Very few decision‐makers indicate features related to the individual, situational, and contextual dimensions, which is interesting since this would be expected from organization theory. The strong call for change in the way proceedings are organized indicates a need for modernization as well as better use of available competency from child development experts. The respondents focus on the elements that a decision‐maker has direct experience with and knowledge about, and this is indeed worth noting for policymakers in the four systems.     

America’s policy thinking in the age of Trump

What is striking in Trumpian economics – supply-side economics too – is the omission of economic growth. There is no awareness that nations at the frontier need indigenous innovation to have ample growth. The take-offs into sustained growth in 19th century Britain and America were fueled by dynamism from the grassroots up. Moreover, this stunted economics has no room for the rewards from participating in the economy besides the market wage – for the satisfaction of succeeding at what one is doing, the sense of flourishing as one’s career unfolds, and the thrill of venturing into the unknown.     

Civilian protection in counterinsurgency warfare

This paper investigates how democracies protect the lives of enemy civilians in counterinsurgency warfare. A theoretical model is developed where the elected leaders’ decisions are influenced by what is known as “endowment effect” or “memory effect” in cognitive psychology. It is shown that too many civilians are killed in equilibrium as the leaders choose to pass some of the long-term costs of civilian casualties to their successors. The bias becomes more pronounced when the leaders are subject to binding term limits. The existing law of war is interpreted and evaluated using the theoretical framework. The analysis shows that the law falls short of the optimal constraint as it regulates the relative rather than absolute size of civilian casualties.     

Barrett and Arntzenius's Infinite Decision Puzzle

The Barrett and Arntzenius (1999) decision paradox involves unbounded wealth, the relationship between period-wise and sequence-wise dominance, and an infinite-period split-minute setting. A version of their paradox involving bounded (in fact, constant) wealth decisions is presented, along with a version involving no decisions at all. The common source of paradox in Barrett–Arntzenius and these other examples is the indeterminacy of their infinite-period split-minute setting.     

新制度经济学意识形态理论对我国意识形态安全的威胁透析

新制度经济学意识形态理论以新政治经济学切入,鼓吹的却是资本主义意识形态,以新自由主义开出,对我国意识形态安全形成了诸多威胁。它具有多种表现形式:泛意识形态化、非意识形态化与攻击马克思主义;科斯定理与促动产权私有化改革;政治科斯定理与推行西方式民主;经济学帝国主义、话语霸权与生搬硬套;工具理性肆虐与信仰缺失;对外扩张与肢解民族国家。清醒认识新制度经济学意识形态理论,是展开针对性应对的必要步骤。