中国流动人口通婚圈地域结构分析

本文使用2011—2013年中国流动人口动态监测数据,利用空间分析方法对流动人口地理通婚圈的地域模式与圈层结构进行分析发现:不同区域之间的通婚地域模式具有显著的差异,东部地区的跨省通婚明显高于东北地区和西部地区,中部地区处于最低水平.地理通婚圈的空间圈层结构不但呈现出"空间等级分层"的物理结构,而且不同圈层本身的结构形态也存在显著的差异.地理通婚圈结构自内向外,出现了通婚圆→通婚弧→通婚点的梯度演化.此外,地理通婚圈分异还具有一定的方向偏好.     

北京近年族际通婚状况的实证研究

基于2004~2012年北京婚姻登记数据的分析,表明北京近十年的族际通婚在新婚群体中占比约10%,其中以少数民族与汉族的通婚为主,也有相当数量的少数民族之间的族际通婚。与民族地区相比,北京的族际通婚的特点表现出显著差异:北京族际通婚的人口平均初婚年龄高于汉族通婚,夫妇平均学历水平也高于族内通婚的情况,少数民族之间的族际通婚人群中有很大比例的迁移人口和流动人口;婚姻稳定性方面,族际通婚夫妇的离结率(即当年的离婚数量与结婚数量之比)大大低于族内通婚。新婚人群的特征对比映射出北京对于少数民族精英人口的强大吸纳力。     

北京近年族际通婚状况的实证研究

基于2004~2012年北京婚姻登记数据的分析,表明北京近十年的族际通婚在新婚群体中占比约10%,其中以少数民族与汉族的通婚为主,也有相当数量的少数民族之间的族际通婚。与民族地区相比,北京的族际通婚的特点表现出显著差异:北京族际通婚的人口平均初婚年龄高于汉族通婚,夫妇平均学历水平也高于族内通婚的情况,少数民族之间的族际通婚人群中有很大比例的迁移人口和流动人口;婚姻稳定性方面,族际通婚夫妇的离结率(即当年的离婚数量与结婚数量之比)大大低于族内通婚。新婚人群的特征对比映射出北京对于少数民族精英人口的强大吸纳力。     

从1990年人口普查1%抽样数据看我国的民族通婚

本文利用 1990年全国第四次人口普查 1%抽样数据 ,对 18个人口百万以上的少数民族通婚率方面的问题进行了探讨。内容包括 :各民族粗通婚率的比较和标准化通婚率的比较以及各民族分性别、年龄通婚率。     

中国城市青年地理通婚圈变化及其影响因素研究——基于北京、保定、黄石和西安四城市的调查

本文利用《中国城市青年状况调查》数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法对我国城市青年的地理通婚圈进行研究。研究结果显示:人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用,同时还发现城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但地理通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。据此提出"二孩生育"政策应该成为我国生育政策的建议。     

中越跨界通婚的类型与促成途径

鉴于在中越边境居民跨界通婚研究中田野方法所存在的局限性,笔者在进行个案调查的同时开展了一项较大范围的抽样调查。调查结果表明,中越跨界通婚在我国边境地区较为普遍,但不同地区的婚姻类型、促成途径均有显著差异。     

西部民族地区城市化进程中族际通婚问题研究—甘南藏族自治州合作市调查报告

本文基于甘南（合作市）的实地调查资料,对民族地区族际通婚的影响因素作了实证研究,并以此为依据对地区的民族关系问题作了分析。主要调查结果和结论如下：第一。“藏、回、汉”三元民族关系构成了甘南（合作市）民族关系的基本格局,不同民族之阃的族际通婚反映出了甘南（合作市）地区存在着整体上比较和睦融洽的民族关系：第二。宗教信仰对族际婚姻范围的扩大起着阻碍作用,这在主要聚居于西部地区普遍信仰伊斯兰教的回族表现的尤为明显;第三,民族混居、互交朋友、教育水平和语言能力是影响各民族族际通婚的重要条件,其中语言能力是影响汉族族外通婚的最主要因素,但这一因素对于藏族却并不明显;第四,职业因素和迁移情况在调查中会发现在通婚方面具有一些特征,但在回归分析时由于编码方法的影响。对族际通婚的影响并不明显。     

中国蒙古族、满族与汉族的族际通婚状况

尽管不同朝代对待族际通婚的态度历经数次起伏,中国蒙古族、满族和汉族间通婚的限制反复恢复又废止,各族人民的接触交往却从未间断。研究发现,蒙古族、满族已婚人口中,族际通婚比例均超过40%,意味着族际通婚的普遍流行。在通婚模式上,以蒙古族-汉族、满族-汉族通婚为主,历史上曾持续约3个世纪的高度政治化的“满蒙联姻”已由民族间自由交往所取代。在性别差异上,蒙古族经历了由男性娶进居多到被女性嫁出比例反超的转变。在空间分布上,3个民族形成了以辽西走廊为核心的较为清晰的、广泛的东北—西南走向通婚链。在人口迁移流动过程中,族际通婚主要表现为本地男性娶少数民族流动女性。要重视经济互动、居住聚散程度和人口迁移流动对促进各民族交往交流交融的积极作用。     

中国流动人口通婚圈研究——基于流动人口动态监测数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,随着人口迁移流动的发展,人们的社会交际圈子迅速扩大,大规模的人口迁移流动对社会以及流动人口自身都产生了多方面的影响,其中对其婚恋行为的影响是一个值得研究的重要领域,但目前学界和政府对此关心仍然不够。文章使用2013年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据,运用二元Logistic回归分析方法对流动人口通婚圈研究发现：除流动人口的年龄、性别、户口和受教育程度等基本特征外,迁移流动行为也与通婚圈扩展具有显著的相关性。在流入地的居留时间、迁移流动地域范围和相对结婚时间都与跨省通婚有关,地理通婚圈扩展是社会良性发展的标志,但也不能忽视通婚圈扩展所带来的一些新问题和挑战。     

中国各民族族际通婚的结构特征：基于社会网络分析的考察

族际通婚数据属于典型的关系数据,可视为由各民族与其他民族通婚联系形成的关系体系。因此,社会网络分析提供的一整套方法可作为族际通婚研究的方法工具,以便利地刻画通婚关系的结构特征。基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,首次尝试将该方法用于考察和分析中国各民族族际通婚的结构性特征。初步应用揭示,中国形成了一个以汉族为中心的大的全国族际通婚圈,同时存在少数民族间凝聚力明显有别的8个地方性子通婚圈,该结构特征是中华民族多元一体格局的直观体现。可见,社会网络分析是揭示和认识族际通婚关系结构的可靠且有效方式,其中,社会网络的图形呈现、中心性测度和社群识别技术可为族际通婚关系的分析提供直观和详细的补充信息。     

“台干”的文化调适与群体认同研究——以珠三角地区的“台干”为例

“台干”是上世纪九十年代伴随台资企业西进热潮来到中国大陆工作的特殊群体,他们跟随台资企业的老板来大陆打工,以谋求更高收入和更好的发展。本文在“台干”选择来大陆工作的经济动因基础上,主要依据对其日常生活的了解,从文化调适角度,探讨“台干”在大陆的适应性问题。同时,本研究亦发现,“台干”同大陆人在日常生活中的亲密接触,也促成了“台干”们群体认同的某些转变。本研究对于促进台资企业在大陆的良好发展,促进两岸关系进步具有一定的参考价值。     

Remarriage,Delayed Marriage,and Black/White Intermarriage, 1968–1995

How have changes in marriage order and marriage timing affected 1968–1995 trends in United States Black/White intermarriage? Researchers usually follow a one-sex perspective on the effects of timing and marriage order on marital selection, arguing that delayed marriages and remarriages will be more heterogamous than early or first marriages. This paper shows that a one-sex perspective is oversimplified and that assortative marriage with respect to race depends on the interaction of both husband’s and wife’s characteristics. Marriages that match with respect to age or marriage order tend to also match with respect to race. First marriages and remarriages for both partners are more likely to be same-race marriages. Marriages that are intermarriages with respect to marriage order are more likely to also be intermarriages with respect to race. Marriages that are usual age combinations (husband and wife similar in age or husband slightly older) are also usual race combinations (husband and wife same race). Marriages that are unusual age combinations are more likely to be racial intermarriages. This paper also shows that trends in remarriage patterns do not account for the increasing trend in racial intermarriage and that trends in marriage timing have actually slowed increases in racial intermarriage.     

Mixed marriage among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: Analysis of longitudinal data with missing information

This study investigates the formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. We apply event history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbean people hold an intermediate position. Second, the descendants of immigrants have lower endogamous and higher exogamous marriage rates than their parents; however, for some ethnic groups, particularly South Asians, the differences across generations are small, suggesting that changes in marriage patterns have been slower than expected.     

Sex ratios and the red dragon: using the Chinese Communist Revolution to explore the effect of the sex ratio on women and children in Taiwan

In 1949, Mao Zedong and the People’s Liberation Army defeated the Chinese Nationalist Army. Hundreds of thousands of mainland Chinese fled to the island of Taiwan. In this paper, I use the demographic consequences of the Chinese Communist Revolution and subsequent Taiwanese military policy to identify the effect of the marriage market sex ratio on women and children in Taiwan. I find that as the sex ratio rises, the bride price relative to the dowry increases, the fraction of female children in a family increases, the total number of children in a family decreases, and human capital investments in children increase.     

甘肃省人口婚姻意愿调查分析

本文利用问卷调查数据,分析了甘肃省居民婚姻意愿现状,主要对择偶标准、期望初婚年龄、期望夫妻年龄差和期望婚居模式四个方面进行分析。调查发现,甘肃男性择偶时较看重身体健康,甘肃女性择偶时较看重经济收入;甘肃居民的平均初婚年龄逐步提高;绝大多数居民期望婚姻中丈夫的年龄大于妻子,且倾向于男大于女1-2岁;从夫居和独立居住是普遍接受的婚居模式。虽然现代婚姻观对甘肃居民有一定影响,但是这里的婚姻观仍较传统。     

Variations in marriage patterns in central Thailand

Data from a survey of marriage patterns in central Thailand illustrate the complexity of change in marriage patterns in a developing society--the diversity of traditional patterns, the different directions of change, and the variations in current patterns. The data were collected in 1978 and 1979 from ever-married women aged 15-44 in three settings:a central plains village, established areas in Bangkok, and a Bangkok squatter settlement. Three forms of entry into marriage were identified:ceremonial marriage with parental involvement in the choice of spouse, ceremonial marriage with self-choice of spouse, and nonceremonial marriage (elopement and living together). All three forms of marriage existed in each setting, and the dominant form differed in each. In general, a family background of higher socioeconomic status led to a greater likelihood of a marriage ceremony and greater parental involvement in spouse choice. Women with more education were also more likely to marry with ceremony, but higher education for daughters was associated with less parental involvement in spouse choice. These findings suggest that marriage patterns may remain diverse in Thailand, even as further development occurs.     

广东老年人口婚姻结构变化特征与生活能力分析

基于人口普查数据分析,本文发现广东老年人口有配偶比例大幅度上升,丧偶比例大幅度下降,婚姻结构与全国趋同。老年人口婚姻结构在性别、年龄、教育程度和城乡间差异显著但趋于缩小。流动老年人口有配偶比例更高、丧偶比例更低,对总体老年人口婚姻结构产生影响。有配偶老人生活能力最强,丧偶和未婚老人生活能力最弱,有配偶、离婚的流动老人生活能力更强一些。社会养老服务和保障应关注不同婚姻状况老人的差异性需求。     

The Changing Pattern of Educational Differentials in Divorce in the Context of Gender Egalitarianization: The Case of Taiwan

Regarding educational differentials in divorce, similar trends have been reported across countries. Some report increasing educational differentials, while others identify an educational crossover pattern. The commonality is that education seems to play a role of stabilizing marriage more than ever before. Using data from the Women??s Marriage, Fertility, and Employment Survey, this study investigates the case of Taiwan by portraying the changing pattern of women??s educational differentials in divorce. There are three major findings. First, among previous marriage cohorts, women with relatively higher levels of formal education are significantly more likely to divorce. Second, the marital-dissolution rates for less educated women are rising faster than the corresponding rates for women with more education. Third, this trend does not stop at the catch-up point and eventually leads to a reversal in the association between education and divorce from positive to negative. In short, such educational differentials in divorce vary dramatically across marriage cohorts. A pattern of educational crossover in divorce has been displayed during the rapid social change in Taiwan. Other than William Goode??s argument raised a half-century ago, the marriage model transformation from specialization toward symmetry in the context of gender egalitarianization has to be taken into consideration in order to obtain a full understanding of the phenomenon.     

The effect of non-family experiences on age of marriage in a setting of rapid social change

This study examines the changing effects of non-family activities on the age of transition to first marriage in four cohorts of individuals across 45 years in the Chitwan Valley, Nepal. The results indicate that school enrolment had a negative effect on both men's and women's marriage rates, while total years of schooling had a positive effect on men's marriage rates. Non-family employment experiences increased marriage rates for men only. Analysing the effects of schooling and employment over time suggests that school enrolment became a growing deterrent to marriage for both sexes, and that non-family employment became an increasingly desirable attribute in men. The results are consistent with changing views about sex roles and schooling over time in the region, as the roles of student and spouse became more distinct. The results also suggest an increasing integration of husbands in the non-family labour market.     

Further developments in indirect mortality estimation

Summary A variety of indirect estimators of mortality; survival of children by marriage duration of mother, survival of first spouse by marriage duration and by age, maternal orphanhood, and survival of siblings, are investigated by the use of a wide range of model fertility and mortality situations. Survival probabilities are then related by regression analysis to the proportions with a particular characteristic, to yield an equation which can then be used to estimate the survival probability in a population. Maternal orphanhood and survival of first spouse by age have already shown themselves to be useful, and the new developments are only simplifications of the existing methodology. Survival of first spouse by duration of marriage, and survival of siblings are, however, new methods which have yet to be justified by field experience. In conclusion, the features common to all indirect mortality estimation procedures are outlined, and the direction future developments may take in response to gradually improving data quality is suggested.