Cohabitation in Great Britain: not for long, but here to stay

This paper uses a new source of data to study the dramatic increase in cohabiting unions in Great Britain. It analyses, in turn, entry into first partnership, the stability of cohabiting unions and repartnering after dissolution of cohabitation. In excess of 70% of first partnerships are now cohabitations, and these last a relatively short time before being either turned into marriage or dissolved. The shift to cohabitation as the dominant mode of first partnership plays an important role in the delay of first marriage and motherhood. The paper also investigates the factors that are associated with the outcome of cohabitations.     

The formation and outcomes of cohabiting and marital partnerships in early adulthood: the role of previous partnership experience

Summary.  We estimate a joint model of the formation and dissolution of cohabiting and marital unions among British women who were born in 1970. The focus of the analysis is the effect of previous cohabitation and marriage on subsequent partnership transitions. We use a multilevel simultaneous equations event history model to allow for residual correlation between the hazards of moving from an unpartnered state into cohabitation or marriage, converting a cohabiting union into marriage and dissolution of either form of union. A simultaneous modelling approach allows for the joint determination of these transitions, which may otherwise bias estimates of the effects of previous partnership outcomes on later transitions.     

Competing risks,left truncation and late entry effect in A-bomb survivors cohort

The cohort under study comprises A-bomb survivors residing in Hiroshima Prefecture since 1968. After this year, thousands of survivors were newly recognized every year. The aim of this study is to determine whether the survival experience of the late entrants to the cohort is significantly different from the registered population in 1968. Parametric models that account for left truncation and competing risks were developed by using sub-hazard functions. A Weibull distribution was used to determine the possible existence of a late entry effect in Hiroshima A-bomb survivors. The competing risks framework shows that there might be a late entry effect in the male and female groups. Our findings are congruent with previous studies analysing similar populations.     

A graphical chain model for reciprocal relationships between women's gender role attitudes and labour force participation

Summary.  We use a graphical chain model to investigate the reciprocal relationships between changes in women's labour force participation following entry into parenthood and changes in gender role attitude. Results suggest that attitudes are not fixed and that revision of these attitudes in the light of recent life course events is an important process. The adaptation of attitudes to events appears to be stronger than the selection of individuals on the basis of attitudes. We show that it is not entry into parenthood as such, but the change in economic activity that is related to this event that is associated with attitude change.     

The effect of careers guidance for employed adults on continuing education: assessing the importance of attitudinal information

Summary. The validity of the matching estimator in programme evaluation depends on the completeness of the set of variables that are used for matching. When an attitudinal variable is relevant for the decision about participation, but is either unmeasured or measured only after entry to the programme, estimates of effects may be biased or difficult to interpret. This issue was investigated with data from an evaluation study of careers guidance for employed adults which utilized the method of propensity score matching. Job satisfaction, measured shortly after entry to the programme, was found to be strongly associated with participation but might itself have been influenced by the early experience of careers guidance. Estimates of the effects of guidance were considered both including and excluding the job satisfaction measure from the participation model. Data experiments with adjusted values of job satisfaction were also performed. The results illustrate that omitted attitudinal information poses a particular difficulty for the matching estimator.     

The distribution by age of the frequency of first marriage in a female cohort

The authors present 2 methods for the approximation of a representative schedule recording first marriage frequencies by age. Both treatments are mathematically complex. One method achieves a very close approximation with a simple closed form frequency function, which is the limiting distribution of the convolution of an infinite number of exponentially distributed components. The other method achieves an equal approximation by the convolution of a normal distribution of age of entry into a marriageable state and as few as 3 exponentially distributed delays. This latter convolution provides a feasible model of nuptiality, a model receiving surprising empirical support.     

基于模糊分析的中国商业银行战略联盟伙伴选择研究

随着金融业务的国际化，战略联盟已经成为银行提高自身竞争力的一个有效手段。研究确定商业银行联盟伙伴选择的原则与标准，根据这些标准，运用模糊聚类分析法对银行潜在的联盟伙伴的选择进行分析，使商业银行有针对性的与一些联盟伙伴发展合作伙伴关系，减少交易成本和搜寻成本，从而提高银行的运作效率。     

The Use of Investigations in the Introductory Statistics Course

Reasons for including investigations in a first course in statistics are presented. Investigations create an environment of participation and give the student the opportunity to experience statistics in action. This participation highlights the interaction between science and statistics. Suggestions are made regarding the integration of investigations into a formal course environment. One investigation is presented in detail. Thirteen other investigations are outlined. Emphasis is placed on experiments that require minimal set-up time yet illustrate important statistical concepts.     

Parental partnership and joblessness in childhood and their influence on young people's outcomes

Summary.  The paper estimates the relationship between several outcomes in early adulthood (education, inactivity, early birth, distress and smoking) and experiences of life in a single-parent family and with jobless parent(s) during childhood. The analysis is performed using a sample of young adults, who are selected from the first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–1999) and can be matched with at least one parent and one sibling over the same period. This sample allows us to estimate the relationship of interest by using sibling differences. We also use another sample of young adults from the British Household Panel Survey, matched to at least one parent, to estimate more conventional level models and to compute nonparametric bounds and point estimates. The estimates based on sibling differences require weaker assumptions (compared with the assumptions that are imposed by nonparametric estimators under conditional independence and level estimators) for the identification of the effects of family structure and parental joblessness on the outcomes under analysis. We find that experiences of life in a single-parent family and with jobless parents during childhood are usually associated with disadvantageous outcomes for young adults, the effect of family structure is in general significantly greater (in absolute value) than the effect of parental worklessness and most of the unfavourable outcomes are linked to an early family disruption, when the child was aged 0–5 years, whereas the timing of parental joblessness during childhood has more complex effects, with different outcomes being more strongly influenced by parental worklessness at different ages of the child.     

Hilda Mary Woods MBE, DSc, LRAM, FSS (1892-1971): reflections on a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society

We have previously described the content of a text by Woods and Russell, An Introduction to Medical Statistics, compared it with Principles of Medical Statistics by Hill and set both volumes against the background of vital statistics up until 1937. The two books mark a watershed in the history of medical statistics. Very little has been recorded about the life and career of the first author of the earlier textbook, who was a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society for at least 25 years, an omission which we can now rectify with this paper. We describe her education, entry into medical statistics, relationship with Major Greenwood and her subsequent career and life in Ceylon, Kenya, Australia, England and South Africa.     

Seeing the woods — statistics for the very young

If you go down to the woods today … you're sure of a big statistical experience. You might run into Chris Du Feu giving 9-year-olds their first lesson in statistics. Tasks for the teacher? One, clear nettles; two, make sure that leaves will stay firmly stuck in place on the bar-chart…     

The demographic analysis of human fertility using life history data

"In this contribution we show how the analysis of data from the German Life History Study sheds light on and extends the official statistics on fertility trends in West Germany. First, the data gathered for the three cohorts 1929-31, 1939-41, and 1949-51, are proved for their representativeness. Then birth rates of the first, second, third, and following order for women and men are presented. At last we discuss results of simple survival analyses of the entry into parenthood for different sociostructural groups of men and women in our cohorts." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

加入WTO后的中国经济与统计

一、世界贸易组织 (ＷＴＯ)与中国经济改革、发展世界贸易组织 (以下简称ＷＴＯ)是以关税与贸易总协定 (ＧＡＴＴ)为基础于 1 995年创建的。ＷＴＯ是一个以贸易自由化为宗旨 ,以市场经济为基础 ,按照非歧视性和透明度原则制定的有关贸易政策的多边国际协定 ,是当今世界多边贸易体制整体框架的基石。截止 1 998年1 2月 ,ＷＴＯ已经有 1 35个成员。其中发达国家 2 6个 ,发展中国家和地区 1 0 9个。ＷＴＯ缔约国之间的贸易总额已占世界贸易额的 90 %以上。所以有人称ＷＴＯ是“经济联合国”。众所周知 ,我国政府坚持对外开放方针 ,对参加ＷＴＯ…     

加入WTO后的政中国经济与统计

According to authorities from MOFTEC, it is hopeful that China will enter into the WTO by the end of this year. After the entry, Chinese economy will be further opened and integrated into the world economy. In this paper, the author pointed how to improve the economic management and statistical work to meet the needs of this situation.     

Statistics in english schools for the 16-18+ age group

The kind of statistical material taught to l6-l8 year olds in English Schools is reviewed, largely through the type of examination questions set on it. The conceptual difficulties arediscussed and a teaching scheme which would take into account the limitations in the experience of this age group is proposed, discussed and a teaching scheme which would take into account the limitations in the experience of this age group is proposed     

非竞争型投入产出价格模型研究

按照对进口项处理的不同,投入产出模型分为竞争型模型和非竞争型模型。本文讨论了非竞争型投入产出价格模型,该模型考虑了进口的作用。相对于竞争型模型,工资对价格的传导效应降低。此外,该模型还能分析国外进口产品价格的变化对国内部门的影响。本文测算了1997年、2002年、2007年的工资和进口品价格上涨对对单个部门及整个经济所造成的影响。     

Gaussian models for degradation processes-part I: Methods for the analysis of biomarker data

We present two stochastic models that describe the relationship between biomarker process values at random time points, event times, and a vector of covariates. In both models the biomarker processes are degradation processes that represent the decay of systems over time. In the first model the biomarker process is a Wiener process whose drift is a function of the covariate vector. In the second model the biomarker process is taken to be the difference between a stationary Gaussian process and a time drift whose drift parameter is a function of the covariates. For both models we present statistical methods for estimation of the regression coefficients. The first model is useful for predicting the residual time from study entry to the time a critical boundary is reached while the second model is useful for predicting the latency time from the infection until the time the presence of the infection is detected. We present our methods principally in the context of conducting inference in a population of HIV infected individuals.     

如何看待“农村剩余劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移是工业化和现代化的必然趋势”

江泽民同志在中国共产党第十六次全国代表大会上的报告《全面建设小康社会开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面》第四部分第二节“全面繁荣农村经济 ,加快城镇化建设进程”中提出 :“农村富余劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移 ,是工业化和现代化的必然趋势。要逐步提高城镇化水平 ,坚持大中小城市和小城镇协调发展 ,走中国特色的城镇化道路。”这一精辟论断 ,深刻地阐明了我国农村劳动力优化配置的重要性 ,并明确指明了今后一个时期内我国农村劳动力优化配置的发展方针 ,具有重要的现实意义和理论意义。2 0世纪 70年代末在中国农村实行的改革 ,给中国…     

A New Direction for Library Technical Services: Using Metadata Skills to Improve User Accessibility

Abstract

An increased awareness about the importance of resource accessibility for all library users has set the stage for transforming traditional cataloger roles into a new realm of possibility. The Acquisitions & Discovery (A&D) and the User Experience (UX) departments of North Carolina State University Libraries have formed a partnership to explore the benefits of working together amidst this climate of innovation and change. A pilot project was created to develop a workflow through which technical services staff can use their metadata skills to help resolve accessibility issues found on the Libraries’ main website. By performing this work, staff can grow in technical expertise, enhance the quality of metadata in web content, and build mutually beneficial partnerships within the library community.     

Ranking football players

The Actim index is the official player rating system of the Barclays Premiership, which was introduced for the 2004–2005 football season. It was devised by Ian McHale and Phil Scarf for the Press Association in partnership with the Premier League and Football Data Co. Here they describe the development of the index and take a look at player performance this season.