Measuring and Analysing the Wellbeing of Australia’s Indigenous Population

According to most standard socioeconomic indicators (for example employment, income and education), Indigenous Australians tend to have worse outcomes than their non-Indigenous counterparts. Most objective health indicators including life expectancy also tend to be worse. Traditionally, these two domains and associated objective indicators have been the focus of research, government policy and evaluation. There has been less research, however, on differences between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in subjective measures of wellbeing. In this paper, I attempt to answer three related research questions on Indigenous wellbeing—What is the average level of emotional wellbeing and satisfaction with life for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous population of Australia? How do the differences between the two populations change once other characteristics have been controlled for? What are the factors associated with emotional wellbeing within the Indigenous population? With regards to the first two questions, Indigenous Australians are less likely to report frequent periods of happiness and more likely to report periods of extreme sadness than the non-Indigenous population. Surprisingly, given these results for emotional wellbeing, a major finding from the analysis was that Indigenous Australians were significantly more likely to report above-average satisfaction with their life. The main finding with regards to the third question is that using retrospective measures, those in remote areas report higher levels of happiness than those in non-remote areas. This is different to the results for socioeconomic status and objective measures of health found elsewhere and has important implications for government policy in Australia.     

Changing Australia’s Age Pension Qualification Age: Modelling Differential Effects by Race

Increasing the age at which people are eligible for the age pension is one mechanism by which governments of developed nations are attempting to manage increasing costs associated with population ageing. In Australia, there are a number of groups within the population who may be affected in unintended ways by increasing the eligibility age to 70 years by the year 2035, as was proposed in the 2014 Federal Budget. Most notably, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians currently with an average at birth life expectancy of 69.1 years for males and 73.7 years for females, nearly 11 years less than non-Indigenous Australians, may be the most affected. This study explores the consequences of the proposed future amendments to the age pension eligibility age, using projections of the likely age structures of future populations to estimate expected years of life remaining after reaching pension age. Despite projected improvements for Indigenous life expectancies, increasing the pension eligibility age under the schedule proposed in the policy would significantly reduce the expected years in post pension age, thus countering some of the anticipated benefits flowing from expected future life expectancy increases. However, if the eligibility age were to be increased more gradually, Indigenous Australians would be afforded a greater opportunity to access age pension benefits, whilst still reducing the length of time the non-Indigenous population is eligible to access the age pension, thus fulfilling policy objectives to manage increasing costs associated with population ageing.     

‘Closing the Gap’ in Indigenous life expectancies: what if we succeed?

In 2007–2008 the Council of Australian Governments agreed to six ambitious targets for addressing longstanding disparities between Indigenous and other Australians in health, education and employment outcomes. The ‘National Integrated Strategy for Closing the Gap on Indigenous Disadvantage’ (colloquially ‘Closing the Gap’) includes the goal of eliminating life expectancy gaps within a generation. This policy says nothing about what changes in the demographic structure of the population might be expected should there be even partial success towards this ambitious target. Information is required to analyse age and sex shifts for their effects on service demand and provision. In this study we apply cohort component projections modelling to the Northern Territory, the Australian jurisdiction with the largest Indigenous component in its population and the largest life expectancy gaps, to assess the demographic effects of closing the gap within a generation. Three scenarios are modelled: (1) No changes to Indigenous life expectancies from those estimated in 2010; (2) Complete success in closing the gap within a generation; and (3) A continuation of current forecasts about how Indigenous life expectancies will change into the future. Although closing the gap would only produce a small increase in the size of the next generation’s Indigenous population, over and above that projected with lower life expectancy scenarios, it would result in substantial changes in age compositions, with associated shifts in various demographic indices. These are pertinent to the planning and funding of core services into the future.     

The labour supply of Indigenous Australian females: the effects of fertility and interactions with the justice system

Indigenous females are among the most disadvantaged groups in Australia; Furthermore outcomes for Indigenous Australians compare unfavourably with those for similar First Nations around the world. There appears to be a demographic transition under way in Indigenous Australia whereby declines in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to an increase in the number of Indigenous people supplying their labour in the near future. This paper examines the determinants of Indigenous female labour force participation with a particular focus on the role of fertility and interaction with the justice system. The analysis controls for the standard determinants of labour supply, but its main contribution is in taking into account the endogeneity of these potential interruptions to labour market participation. These findings are also important because Indigenous Australian females are 22 times more likely to be in prison than other Australian females and hence the analysis has crucial implications for the ability of policy makers to ‘close the gaps’ between Indigenous and other Australians. Once endogeneity of fertility with labour supply is taken into account, there is no significant independent effect on labour force participation and hence policy should focus on the other factors including education and training.     

Demographic Consequences of the ‘Closing the Gap’ Indigenous Policy in Australia

The demography of Indigenous Australians is distinguished from that of other Australians by relatively high mortality and fertility leading to very different composition by age. This is beginning to change as movement towards a convergence in vital rates is observed. In the meantime, the Australian government has established targets for Indigenous socioeconomic outcomes that simultaneously impact on, and are affected by, the course of demographic change. This paper examines the relationship between these targets and projected Indigenous demographic outcomes that arise from incipient population ageing. The most likely scenario is movement into an indeterminate period of potential demographic dividend. If demand for Indigenous labour expands alongside reductions in age dependency this could provide for dramatic improvement in Indigenous economic circumstances. However, caution is warranted as disparities in adult mortality require long-term solutions and movement into a second phase of demographic transition appears likely to be delayed.     

Modelling potential impact of improved survival of Indigenous Australians on work-life labour income gap between Indigenous and average Australians

This study compares the work-life labour income of Indigenous and average Australians and assesses the potential effect of bridging the mortality gaps on their work-life earnings using a life-table model which took account of the survival, employment and income trajectories from 25 to 64 years. Age-specific employment and average annual income data were derived from the 2006 Census for three educational groups: incomplete secondary, completed secondary, and higher levels of education. Results show that depending on educational qualifications, the work-life labour income of Indigenous people is likely to be around two-fifths to two-thirds of the work-life labour income of average Australians. If Indigenous Australians were to have the same level of survival as average Australians, the work-life labour income gap would narrow by about 4–7 % points. Bridging the adult mortality gap alone has only a small effect on bridging economic gaps persisting between Indigenous and other Australians.     

The Subjective Wellbeing of Indigenous Australian Adolescents: Validating the Personal Wellbeing Index-School Children

By almost all measures of objective life quality, Indigenous Australians are disadvantaged relative to the general population. However, no measures of their Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) have been published. This paper presents the first such data, norm-referenced to the general Australian population. A total of 519 Indigenous adolescents, aged between 12 and 19 years, were administered the Personal Wellbeing Index-School Children, which measures SWB. This scale is a parallel form of the Personal Wellbeing-Adult. The PWI-SC exhibited adequate psychometric properties. Moreover, consistent with SWB Homeostasis theory, participants’ mean SWB was within the Australian adult normative range. However, female SWB was lower than males. These results suggest that Indigenous adolescents are resilient.     

Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory of Australia: what do we know? (and what can we know?)

In the Northern Territory of Australia, Indigenous people make up 30% of the population. Demographic features of the Indigenous population are thus important for understanding Northern Territory population dynamics, but our understanding of what is happening within the Indigenous population is limited by poor data and limited research attention. This paper exploits birth registration and census data to explore Northern Territory Indigenous fertility trends over a 20-year period. It investigates whether fertility decline identified for the 1960 and 1970s is a contemporary feature of Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory. Results show that our understanding of Northern Territory Indigenous fertility is heavily constrained by data and that trend analysis is essential for avoiding erroneous conclusions because of annual fluctuations. The outstanding feature of Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory is women becoming mothers at extremely early ages, particularly in rural and remote parts of the Territory. Age patterns appear to have changed little since the middle of last century despite modest declines in age-specific fertility at the youngest ages. While these declines may continue, any trends will be slow to emerge. Continued close scrutiny of data sources and monitoring of trends is needed to ensure that Northern Territory population dynamics are properly understood, and care must be taken in interpreting results to make certain policy interventions aimed at population outcomes are appropriate and achievable.     

Indigenous demography and public policy in Australia: population or peoples?

This paper reviews the application of demographic analysis to Indigenous Affairs public policy in Australia as an exemplar case of the demography of disadvantage. Demography has found a natural and successful role using census, survey and administrative data, but for the most part this is restricted to a series of gap analyses based on a deficit model of Indigenous well-being as measured by standard social indicators. While useful for macropolicy settings, translation of these research findings into coherent policy on the ground is thwarted by a lack of ethnographically informed data that account for the intercultural world in which many Indigenous people exist and operate. This is because the categories and contexts deployed are uncritically those of the mainstream, and not those reflective of Indigenous social structures or life projects. This inadequacy is explored against the background of an emerging dialogue between demography and anthropology. Ironically, Australian demographers pioneered such a dialogue but so far it has failed to penetrate demographic research that informs Indigenous public policy.     

How colonisation determines social justice and Indigenous health—a review of the literature

Disparities in health status persist for Indigenous people in Australia. In the bid to reduce the disparity gap, the concept of achieving social justice is central to advancing the services and systems that can challenge inequitable circumstances within a nation. Colonisation is well known as the underlying factor influencing the social injustices that result in inequitable health for Indigenous people. A literature review was conducted identifying how the colonial impact on social justice is described in the relationships with the health of Indigenous Australians. A comprehensive search strategy was developed, including four broad search terms of ‘Indigenous people’ and ‘health status’ and ‘colonisation’ or ‘social justice’, and applied within five databases. Publications were limited to Australia, dated from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2014. The literature acknowledging the effect that colonisation has on Indigenous Australians includes evidence from oral and political histories, and social determinants frameworks. There was a general consensus that the impact of colonisation on the health of Indigenous people is highly complex and that the legacies are experienced intra-generationally and inter-generationally. There is paucity in the evidence that examines the associations of colonisation and its impact on social injustice. Because social justice is considered central to equitable practices across all sectors in society (health, education, legal etc.), questions are raised about the magnitude of the effect that colonisation has on health disparities and importantly how the desideratum to tackle disparities that have stemmed from colonisation are adequately addressed.     

The geography and demography of Indigenous temporary mobility: an analysis of the 2006 census snapshot

Local area population counts and estimates are crucial inputs into policy planning and processes. However, population mobility in general, as well as large numbers of visitors to particular areas, place additional demands on resources and those providing essential services. The literature identifies a pressing need for standardized quantitative measures of the volume, frequency and flows of Indigenous temporary mobility and comparable spatial scales. This paper presents an analysis of census data as it relates to Indigenous temporary mobility, and explores the spatial and demographic complexities involved. While the census remains the only consistent and nationally comprehensive data set on Indigenous temporary mobility that provides important insights, the overall findings from this analysis suggest that it remains a relatively blunt instrument in the task of identifying all the factors in Indigenous temporary movement. We conclude that researchers, policy makers and Indigenous populations must seek and develop additional data sources from which the drivers and dynamics of Indigenous temporary mobility and residency patterns may be identified.     

Indigenous Wellbeing Frameworks in Australia and the Quest for Quantification

There is an emerging global recognition of the inadequacies of conventional socio-economic and demographic data in being able to reflect the relative wellbeing of Indigenous peoples. This paper emerges out of a recent desktop study commissioned by an Australian Indigenous organization who identified a need to enhance local literacies in data collection and interpretation in order to monitor the wellbeing of the Indigenous people within their region, manage governments in respect of their civic responsibilities to this population, and proactively and imaginatively plan for the future of the Indigenous people in their region. In canvassing available data and the growing Indigenous wellbeing literature, it became apparent that conventional statistical collections used to report on the status of populations are governed by a series of assumptions regarding three related concepts: wellbeing; demography; and economic productivity and prosperity. These assumptions have direct implications for how Indigenous peoples are represented to governments and broader society. The paper draws together the existing threads of literature regarding Indigenous wellbeing research to posit a possible broader framework for organising various kinds of Indigenous wellbeing analyses. In doing so, it identifies important shortcomings and deficits in the kinds of data that are available to Indigenous peoples in presenting themselves and their aspirations to governments with. It also opens up a critical analysis of the opportunities and obstacles for Indigenous communities in undertaking such research.     

The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61

Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static–dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011–61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population.     

The magnitude of educational disadvantage of indigenous minority groups in Australia

Indigenous groups are amongst the most disadvantaged minority groups in the developed world. This paper examines the educational disadvantage of indigenous Australians by assessing academic performance at a relatively early age. We find that, by the age of 10, indigenous Australians are substantially behind non-indigenous Australians in academic achievement. Their relative performance deteriorates further over the next 2 years. School and locality do not appear to be important determinants of the indigenous to non-indigenous achievement gap. However, geographic remoteness, indigenous ethnicity and language use at home have a marked influence on educational achievement. A current focus of Australian indigenous policy is to increase school resources. Our results suggest that this will not eliminate indigenous educational disadvantage on its own.

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Educational attainment and the (growing) importance of age structure: Indigenous and non-indigenous Australians

Australia’s Indigenous population has a markedly younger age structure than its non-Indigenous counterpart. As a result, greater proportions of the Indigenous population are presently at school and approaching tertiary education age, meaning that any declines in gaps between the two populations in terms of educational attainment may be more apparent than real; a reflection of the differing age structures, rather than true improvement. This paper illustrates the argument across the period 1981–2006. It shows first that crude gaps in educational attainment between the two populations in fact increased across the period, for both pre-tertiary (Year 12) attendance and post-school qualifications, after first declining slightly between 1981 and 1991. Using a classic standardization technique it then illustrates how the differences in age structure conceal what would otherwise be greater or smaller gaps. Although most of the age effects are at present small, the findings indicate the increasing optimality of the Indigenous age structure for the gaining of qualifications, and make it imperative that these differences be explicitly acknowledged and built into all policy interventions. Similarly the findings indicate that any such interventions should be carefully monitored for their potential to negatively discriminate on the basis of age structure.     

Longitudinal determinants of mobility: new evidence for Indigenous children and their carers

In this paper, I used data from Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children (LSIC) to look at the factors associated with the probability of an Indigenous child and their carer changing usual residence over a (roughly) one-year timespan. A number of new insights emerge from the analysis. First, those carers of Indigenous children who changed usual residence in the year leading up to Wave 1 of the LSIC were more likely to change usual residence again in the year (or so) that followed. Second, the older the carer, the lower the probability of moving, reflecting the lifecourse patterns of mobility. Third, those who lived in mixed Indigenous and non-Indigenous households had higher levels of mobility than those who lived in Indigenous-only households. The fourth main insight was that the characteristics of one’s dwelling seem to be more important factors in explaining population movement than the characteristics of the area in which one lives. Arguably, the most important insight from the paper is the ability of longitudinal data like the LSIC to provide answers to important policy questions.     

The contemporary demography of indigenous Australians

Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity.     

The uses and users of population projections in Australia

It is widely recognized that population projections are increasingly used in formulating policy in many public and private sectors. However, little information exists on the nature of the projections or their users. This paper reports the results of a survey conducted to rectify this situation. The results confirm that the applications of projections are very broad and that the prime area of increase has been in small-area projections. At this level many users make their own projections rather than use official projections and the paper reviews the methodology used to make these projections. A number of suggestions are made for improving communication between national and subnational producers and local users. We would like to thank the Australian Population Association, and in particular the Secretary, Dianne Rudd, for providing us with address labels of members of the Association. We would also like to thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in particular Shail Jain, for advice on the development of the questionnaire. The comments of the two anonymous referees were very helpful. Finally we wish to thank our respondents for their co-operation, and especially those who wrote to encourage us in this work.     

Remote dwelling Aboriginal Australian women and birthing: A critical review of literature

Problem

Australian Aboriginal women’s aspirations for birthing on country (having our babies born on our traditional land) are increasingly being reported in Australian scholarly and policy literature. However given the paucity of publications authored by Aboriginal Australians from remote areas of Australia, how well can the current knowledge base in Australia inform the development of culturally appropriate maternity services for our communities?