ESTIMATING TELEPHONE NONCOVERAGE BIAS WITH A TELEPHONE SURVEY

Nontelephone households are implicitly treated as a static populationin discussions of sampling frame noncoverage. Yet telephoneservice is known to be episodic for many households, who maygain or lose service as their financial situation changes orwhen they move. Thus the population of telephone householdsat any given time includes households that were recently a partof the nontelephone population. These households may be usedto characterize the nature of some noncoverage errors and evento estimate their magnitude. Using a panel constructed withthe 1992-93 Current Population Survey, "transient" telephonehouseholds-those who gained or lost service over the year coveredby the panel-are shown to comprise over half of the panel householdsreporting no telephone service in either the 1992 or 1993 surveys.These households are compared with the total nonphone populationand found to be similar on a variety of key demographic characteristics.Several statewide Virginia telephone surveys are used to comparehouseholds reporting "intermittent" phone service with nontelephonehouseholds surveyed through in-person interviews. Householdsreporting intermittent telephone service were very similar tonontelephone households in terms of health insurance coverageand other variables known to be related to telephone status.     

THE ANSWERING MACHINE POSES MANY QUESTIONS FOR TELEPHONE SURVEY RESEARCHERS

The proliferation of the telephone answering machine raisesa number of questions about the continued efficiency of thetelephone as a data-gathering mechanism. The most critical ofthese is what effect the use of these machines might have onestablishing contact with potential respondents. If individualsroutinely use these machines to screen calls, then their accessibilityto telephone survey researchers will be restricted. A secondquestion is the degree to which respondents who own answeringmachines and are reachable are likely to participate in a survey.A third question is the extent to which the incidence of theanswering machine as a response disposition might vary by thetime of calling and the respondent's place of residence. Thefindings of this study, based on a nationwide survey, pointto a significant proportion of answering machine owners beingreachable and willing to participate. Furthermore, the answeringmachine appears to be in use more on weekends than on weekdayevenings and in more urbanized areas than in areas with fewerinhabitants.     

CALL FOR PAPERS

In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two‐fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval.

The findings of this study indicate that the reversal of the historical pattern of net out‐migration of blacks from the southern region occurred two decades after the turnaround for the general population. The southern region changed from sizable net out‐migration for blacks during the period before 1970 to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval. The changeover was due to a substantial decrease in the number of both southern‐born and non‐southern‐born blacks leaving the South. There were also increases in the rate of in‐migration into the region among both return migrants and nonsouthern migrants. The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern‐born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in‐migration for the black population.     

INTERVIEWING OLDER ADULTS: MODE COMPARISON USING DATA FROM A FACE-TO-FACE SURVEY AND A TELEPHONE RESURVEY

A face-to-face survey conducted in 1984 with a sample of 1491residents of the Detroit metropolitan area (including an oversampleof older adults) and a reinterview of a random subset of theserespondents by telephone were used to compare the two modesof data collection across two age levels. Except for a tendencytoward a disproportionately large number of DK answers and adisproportionately large amount of interviewer assistance onthe telephone, respondents 60 years of age and older did notexhibit larger mode differences than did respondents under 60.For both age groups, response distributions were rather similar,suggesting little effect of mode. Likewise, response style differedlittle by mode, while a higher proportion of missing data (i.e.,"I don't know" answers) was given on the telephone. The responserate for the telephone reinterview was 90%, somewhat lower forolder than younger persons. The findings support the feasibilityof using the telephone for reinterviewing older adults.     

OPTIMAL DISTORTION MIX FOR CONSTRAINED PROFIT-MAXIMIZATION

This article geometrically integrates the input and output effects induced by simple rate-of-return regulation of constrained firms. A determinate model is constructed to demonstrate the manner in which the distortions (input and output) can be optimally combined to achieve constrained profit-maximization. Because a trade-off is shown to exist among the three distortion types, it is concluded that amendments to the rate-of-return constraint should dampen all three distortions simultaneously. An amendment which is narrowly designed to reduce only one inefficiency may well exacerbate the other two.     

OPTIMAL STRATEGIES FOR WORKERS ON TEMPORARY LAYOFF

In this paper we analyze the worker's behavior when faced with job offers which include possible temporary layoff spells of varying (known) durations. We show that of the three strategies which can be optimal, two involve search in all or part of the layoffs. We also show that the duration of any particular spell plays no role in determining which strategy is optimal to pursue. And finally, we develop an index for evaluating jobs with different wage and layoff probabilities and show that the worker's reservation wage monotonically increases, decreases or remains constant during the course of a layoff.     

DIAGNOSTICS FOR REDESIGNING SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRES: MEASURING WORK IN THE CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY

Between 1986 and 1993, a program of questionnaire design andcognitive research was conducted by the Census Bureau and Bureauof Labor Statistics, to improve labor force measurements inthe Current Population Survey (CPS). As part of the researchprogram, diagnostic measures for systematically testing andevaluating alternative questionnaire versions were developedand applied. This article reports results of applying two methods,special follow-up probes and hypothetical vignettes, to themeasurement of "work" in the CPS. These measures provided bothdirect and indirect information about problems of respondentcomprehension and reporting errors. In this article, we analyzeresults using these diagnostic measures to evaluate the effectof questionnaire revisions on reporting of work activities,and we assess the consistency and usefulness of the informationprovided by alternative diagnostic measures for pretesting andselecting questions.     

RESPONSE-TIME MEASUREMENT IN SURVEY RESEARCH A METHOD FOR CATI AND A NEW LOOK AT NONATTITUDES

The paper introduces a methodology for measuring accuratelythe time it takes respondents to answer questions in computer-assistedtelephone surveys. The methodology, which is completely invisibleto respondents, comprises a computer "clock," capable of timingresponses with millisecond accuracy, and a "voice-key" thatconverts sounds emitted by respondents into signals capableof triggering the computer clock. Response times to questionson a range of attitude questions, including stable and unstableattitudes, were measured. The results revealed orderly normsin the latencies associated with various types of survey questions.The latencies associated with the expression of stable and unstableattitudes are discussed in the context of the notion of "nonattitudes"and shed new light on this controversial thesis. Overall, ourresults demonstrate that response latencies can be measuredprecisely and reliably in telephone surveys and that the datafrom such measurement open new windows on the cognitive dynamicsof survey responses.     

MAIL SURVEY RESPONSE RATE: A META-ANALYSIS OF SELECTED TECHNIQUES FOR INDUCING RESPONSE

This article reports the results of a meta-analysis of experimentalstudies which have examined ten different factors felt to influenceresponse rates to mail surveys. The form of meta-analysis usedclearly defines the individual impact of each of the factorsexamined. Results indicate that prenotification and follow-upsincrease the response rate, as does the type of outgoing postageused. Furthermore, studies sponsored by a university receivegreater returns. Increases in the size of the monetary incentiveused appear to have decreasing marginal gains. Finally, someevidence exists to suggest that the color of the questionnaireinfluences response rate.     

A MODEL OF OPTIMAL PLANT SIZE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR COGNITIVE ACHIEVEMENT AND FOR SCHOOL SIZE

A model of optimal plant size is developed which predicts that 1) plants experience increasing returns to in-plants inputs, 2) the relative price of plant output is greater in rural areas than in urban areas, and 3) plants are larger in urban areas than in rural areas. The model's predictions appear to be consistent with behavior in a number of consumer services (e. g., grocery, movie, and library services). These predictions are more rigorously tested and are strongly supported when demand functions for cognitive achievement and for school size are estimated. These regressions also lend support to the quality-quantity model of fertility.     

A SURVEY OF TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES FOR PREDOCTORAL PSYCHOLOGY INTERNS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY

The major clinical training experience for future psychologists is the one-year predoctoral internship. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of marriage and family therapy training available to predoctoral psychology interns. All identifiable internship programs were surveyed to determine training opportunities for doctoral psychology students interested in marriage and family therapy training. A questionnaire was developed and mailed to all predoctoral internshipslisted in the 1983–84 Internship Programs in Professional Psychology (IPPP) and 18 additional sites known to offer marriage and family therapy training. Results indicate that relatively few psychology internships offer substantial training in marriage and family therapy. A listing of internships offering significant levels of training was developed.     

DESPERATE TIMES CALL FOR DESPERATE MEASURES: GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS IN HARD TIMES

We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the U.S. economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12%, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack periods than nonslack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time-varying regimes of slackness and find that our empirical results are robust under a more flexible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of fiscal policy and shed light on the prospect of fiscal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID-19 pandemic. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62)     

BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR HIERARCHICAL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT MODELS OF REPEATED CROSS-SECTION SURVEY DATA

This study applies methods of Bayesian statistical inference to hierarchical APC models for the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section survey data. It examines the impacts of small sample sizes of birth cohorts and time periods and unbalanced data on statistical inferences based on the usual restricted maximum likelihood–empirical Bayes (REML-EB) estimators through Monte Carlo simulations. A full Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling and MCMC estimation is developed to assess the robustness of REML-EB inferences when this extra uncertainty is taken into account and the numbers of higher-level units are small. For a substantive illustration, it applies cross-classified random effects models to vocabulary test data from the General Social Survey (1974 to 2000). It is concluded that the decline in verbal ability for birth cohorts born after 1950 was correlated with the levels of newspaper reading and television watching. Avenues for future research on mixed APC models are discussed.     

OPTIMAL PRICE OF ENTRY INTO A COMPETITION

A continuum of contestants are choosing whether to enter a competition. Each contestant has a type, and of those who enter, the ones with highest types receive prizes. A profit‐maximizing firm controls entry, and charges a price for it. I show that an increase in the value of each prize leads the firm to raise the price while keeping the intensity of entry fixed. Conversely, when the mass of prizes increases, the firm initially keeps the price constant while allowing entry to increase; and later—raises the price. (JEL C72, D82, D83)