Socioeconomic Differences in Multipartner Fertility Among Norwegian Men

This article analyzes male fertility, with a particular focus on multipartner fertility, for cohorts born 1955 to 1984 in Norway. We find that socioeconomically disadvantaged men have the lowest chance of becoming fathers and the lowest likelihood of fathering multiple children in stable unions. Multipartner fertility, on the other hand, is positively associated with both disadvantage and advantage: higher-order birth risks with a new partner are more prevalent among men with low as well as high socioeconomic status. An intervening factor among disadvantaged men may be a higher union dissolution risk, and an elevated risk among advantaged men may be associated with their higher preferences for children and other features that make these men more attractive to women as partners and fathers of future children.     

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women’s Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the “value of children” perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar—and deliberate—reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women’s fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner’s prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the “value of children” perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.     

Baby boomlet for older mothers?

In recent years, a number of celebrities have begun childbearing after age 35. The phenomena of older first-time mothers has received a great deal of attention in the popular press. Are these celebrities indicative of a national trend? Does the increase in fertility portend a reversal of the declines in fertility which have been occurring since the baby boom? The present paper uses central and cumulative birth rates for cohorts of American white women born between 1882 and 1953 to investigate childbearing between ages 35 and 50. While there has been a noticeable upsurge in first birth rates for cohorts in their mid to late 30s in recent years, overall central birth rates for women in their 30s are among the lowest on record, with cumulative birth rates at record low levels. A major reason for this is that these women are having relatively few third and higher order births. These cohorts will need to have a relatively high proportion of births in their older years of childbearing in order to reach replacement level. However, attaining replacement level is unlikely because such a high proportion of women have remained childless at ages 35–40 and a relatively low proportion are having three or more children.     

The Quality of Male Fertility Data in Major U.S. Surveys

Researchers continue to question fathers’ willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men’s fertility data in the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men’s characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents. We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births. Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications for models of early male fertility.     

Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia,the United States,Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers’ experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.     

Contraception,attitude-practice,and fertility differentials among US Hispanic,African–American and white women

Hispanic fertility (primarily among nationals from Mexico, Central and South America in the US) is higher today than it is in Mexico and the other nations of origin (Frank and Heuveline 2005). It persists into the second and third generations, with only moderate signs of declining to replacement. Meanwhile, the fertility rates of African–Americans, American Indians Cubans, and Puerto Ricans have all declined to replacement, only slightly above the non-Hispanic white population. This study attempts to clarify the question why African–American fertility has declined to replacement, but Hispanic fertility has not. The data used are from Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) of 2002. Differences in physiological or marital-status factors are found not to explain these fertility differences; however, there are significant differences in the practice of contraception during early childbearing years. Slightly less effective methods if contraception is used, and less recourse to abortion if a pregnancy is undesired, all imply higher fertility for Hispanic women. Underlying contraceptive behaviour are sets of attitudes and motives that favour, permit, or seek childbearing. A much higher percentage of Hispanic than African–American women report that they wanted their last birth and intend to have another in the future. Hispanic women of all socio-economic statuses are considerably more pronatal in their attitudes, particularly with respect to the births of first and second children.     

The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for US men and women in the 1957–64 birth cohorts. Mean fertility intentions calculated from reports given in the mid‐20s modestly overstate completed fertility. But discrepancies between stated intent and actual fertility are common—the stated intent at age 24 (for both women and men) is more likely to miss than to match completed fertility. We focus on factors that predict which women and men will have fewer or more children than intended. Consistent with life‐course arguments, those unmarried, childless, or (for women) still in school at approximately age 24 were most likely to underachieve their intended parity (i.e., had fewer children than intended at age 24). We discuss how such discrepancies between intentions and behavior may cumulate to produce sizable cross‐group fertility differences.     

Fathers’ Imprisonment and Mothers’ Multiple-Partner Fertility

We consider the intersection between two striking U.S. trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Using matched longitudinal administrative data that provide unusually comprehensive and accurate information about the occurrence and timing of imprisonment, fertility, and MPF for the population of the state of Wisconsin, we consider the relationship between paternal imprisonment and MPF among unwed mothers. Employing discrete-time event history analysis with multinomial logistic regression, we model the occurrence and timing of the mother’s second birth, distinguishing between a birth with the same father and a birth with a different father, and distinguishing between current imprisonment and a history of imprisonment. We find that current imprisonment is associated with an increased likelihood of MPF and a decreased likelihood of fertility with the same father (compared with no additional birth) and that a history of imprisonment is associated with increased MPF in some models but not in our preferred model. To control for unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and assess the evidence of a causal effect of fathers’ imprisonment, we also employ the case-time-control method, a fixed-effects method for the analysis of nonrepeated events. Results suggest that fathers’ current imprisonment may increase mothers’ MPF. Policy implications are discussed.     

Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden

We use data from a nationally representative sample of Swedish couples to estimate effects of partners’ childbearing plans on the rate of subsequent childbearing. Only 11% of the couples in this sample expressed plans in opposite directions (plan to have a child versus not to have a child), but 24% had differing levels of certainty about their plans. Of the couples in which both partners said they definitely planned to have another child, 44% had a child within two years. If neither partner planned to have another child, less than 2% of couples had a birth. The figure was 6% if the partners had opposing childbearing plans. Thus, both men and women exerted veto power over further childbearing. Disagreements were equally likely to be resolved in favor of the woman as of the man, and effects of partners’ plans on the birth hazard did not depend on the couple’s gender arrangements, family ideologies, or marital status. We discuss these results in the context of Sweden’s public support for gender equality and for childrearing, its pervasive contraceptive regime, and its high rates of cohabitation. We also argue for the collection of data from partners in future family and fertility surveys.     

Fertility Following an Unintended First Birth

Research on unintended fertility tends to focus on births as isolated events. This article expands previous research by examining the relationship between early unintended childbearing and subsequent fertility dynamics in the United States. Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth show that 27.5% of mothers report an unintended first birth. We use event history methods to show that these women are significantly more likely than women with an intended first birth to have an unintended second birth than to have either no second birth or an intended second birth, net of sociodemographic characteristics. An unintended first birth also increases the risk of having an unintended third birth relative to no birth or an intended birth, independent of the intendedness of the second birth. We conclude that early unintended fertility is a strong signal of high risk for subsequent unintended fertility.     

Involuntary childlessness and voluntary fertility control during the fertility transition: Evidence from men who graduated from an American college

Abstract. Influences on the fertility of men during the American fertility decline are examined using a sample of about 1700 married men born between 1830 and 1880, all of whom attended Amherst College, Massachusetts. We consider two types of reduced fertility: involuntary childlessness as a function of health in early adulthood, and voluntary fertility control as a function of access to contraceptive technology. The relation between health, as measured by body mass index, and childlessness was nonlinear, with average sized men significantly more likely ever to father children than thin or bulky men. Among men who ever fathered a child, physicians fathered significantly fewer children while having probabilities of childlessness that were statistically indistinguishable from those of other men. Physicians may have had greater access to relatively new contraceptive technologies, which suggests a role for voluntary fertility control.     

The parental families of Americans in birth cohorts 1890–1955: A categorical,linear equation model estimated from the NORC general social survey

A linear, categorical statistical model with five variables, Father's Education, Father's occupation, Size of Place at Age 16, Mother's Employment, and Total Siblings, is estimated with data from the 1972–1978 NORC General Surveys to describe the parental families of Americans in the birth cohorts 1890 to 1955. The major substantive conclusions are: (1) The educational level of American parents increased at an accelerating rate from 1890 to 1955, (2) The proportion growing up in farm homes declined steadily. Farm fathers were less well educated but the educational difference grew steadily smaller, (3) The proportion of Americans growing up in cities of 50 000 or larger increased steadily, the trend being similar in both educational levels, (4) Metropolitan families increased at an accelerating rate, the acceleration being due to the acceleration in education attainment, (5) Farm families decreased at an approximately constant rate because two opposite trends — acceleration in Education and declining association between Education and Farm cancelled each other out, (6) Town Families —non farm families living in cities under 50 000 increased throughout the period, but faster before 1930 than afterwards, (7) Metropolitan families had consistently more children and more employment of mothers than Town families; farm families were slower in experiencing the trend toward working wives; farm families were about the same as town families in decreasing rates of fertility, so the urban/farm gap in fertility remained constant, (8) at the turn of the century higher status mothers were more likely to have small families and less likely to work. After 1910 the pattern changed, as better educated families opted for the pattern of working mothers and fewer children. By the birth cohort of 1955 the education difference in fertility had grown considerably while the education difference in maternal employment had reversed.     

Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts

In the post-Recession era, U.S. fertility rates have continued to fall. It is unclear if these declines are driven by shifts in fertility goals or growing difficulty in achieving goals. In this paper, we construct synthetic cohorts of men and women to examine both cross-cohort and within-cohort changes in fertility goals using multiple cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth. Although more recent cohorts exhibit lower achieved fertility at younger ages than earlier cohorts at the same age, intended parity remains around two children, and intentions to remain childless rarely exceed 15 percent. There is weak evidence of a growing fertility gap in the early 30s, suggesting more recent cohorts will need considerable childbearing in the 30s and early 40s to “catch up” to earlier goals, yet low-parity women in their early 40s are decreasingly likely to have unfulfilled fertility desires or intentions to have children. Low-parity men in their early 40s, though, are increasingly likely to intend children. Declines in U.S. fertility thus seem to be largely driven not by changes in early-life fertility goals so much as either a decreasing likelihood of achieving earlier goals or, perhaps, shifts in the preferred timing of fertility that depress period measures.     

Fertility Timing of Unmarried and Married Mothers: Evidence on Variation Across U.S. Cities from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study

In this paper, we examine the determinants of fertility timing of unmarried and married mothers using a rich new birth cohort study, the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, drawn from 20 medium and large U.S. cities. We find considerable variation in the time to next birth among comparable mothers who live in different cities. Some of this variation is explained by variation in labor markets, housing costs and availability, and welfare policies. City variation is particularly important for unmarried women who already have two or more children, whose fertility is more sensitive to these contextual variables than is the fertility of married women, or unmarried women with just one child.     

Fertility history, health, and health changes in later life: a panel study of British women and men born 1923-49

We investigated associations between later-life health and fertility history for women and men, using the British Household Panel Survey. We modelled health and its rate of change jointly with sample retention over an 11-year period. For women, childlessness is associated with limitation of activity for health reasons and faster acquisition of the limitation. High parity (four or more children) is associated with poorer health for both women and men. For the parous, this association is also found when age at first birth is controlled. Early parenthood is associated with poorer health. For parents of two or more children, a birth interval of less than 18 months is associated with having a health limitation and an accelerated rate of acquiring it. We conclude that biosocial pathways link parenthood careers and the later-life health of both women and men, and that implications of closely spaced births for parents merit further attention.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Multipartner Fertility

Using data from administrative registers for the period 1970–2007 in Norway and Sweden, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of multipartner fertility. We find that men and women with half-siblings are more likely to have children with more than one partner. The differences are greater for those with younger versus older half-siblings, consistent with the additional influence of parental separation that may not arise when one has only older half-siblings. The additional risk for those with both older and younger half-siblings suggests that complexity in childhood family relationships also contributes to multipartner fertility. Only a small part of the intergenerational association is accounted for by education in the first and second generations. The association is to some extent gendered. Half-siblings are associated with a greater risk of women having children with a new partner in comparison with men. In particular, maternal half-siblings are more strongly associated with multipartner fertility than paternal half-siblings only for women.     

A model of numbers of births in three countries,with persistent forty-year cycles

This paper describes a model which relates fertility to partner availability, an aspect of relative cohort size. Partner availability is affected by the tendency for males to reproduce at a later age than females. For women born at a time of rising birth rates, there is a shortage of slightly older men as potential partners. Women born when birthrates are falling enjoy a surplus of older men from which to choose. This model is believed to be the first non-linear demographic feedback model involving feedbacks through marriage squeezes in which empirically estimated values of the parameters imply persistent limit cycles. The deterministic model makes births in each five-year period a function of births in previous five-year periods. The form of the function is chosen to model the effect of partner availability upon entry into reproductive relationships, and therefore on age-specific fertility. Marriage rates are not modeled directly. The model was developed from data for more than a century from England and Wales, New Zealand, and the US. The demographic transition is modeled with a logistic function and age-specific fertility rates are estimated using lognormal distributions. The stepwise inclusion of a partner availability estimate in the model showed that it accounts for 29% of otherwise unexplained variance. Projected future births stabilize in sustained or limit cycles with periods a little longer than 40 years, and amplitudes of at least 7% of the mean. The necessary conditions for cycle persistence are outlined on a graph of maximum and minimum fertility parameters.     

Stages of the Demographic Transition from a Child's Perspective: Family Size,Cohort Size,and Children's Resources

This article provides a new characterization of stages of the demographic transition from the perspective of children competing for resources within families and cohorts. In Stage 1 falling mortality increases the size of both families and birth cohorts. In Stage 2 falling fertility overtakes falling mortality to reduce family size, but population momentum causes continued growth in cohort size. In Stage 3 falling fertility overtakes population momentum to produce declining cohort size. We apply our framework to census microdata for eight countries and to United Nations population projections for a larger set of countries. The results suggest that most countries spend two to three decades in Stage 2, with declining family size offset by increasing cohort size. From the perspective of children aged 9–11, many countries enter Stage 3 between 2000 and 2010. Other countries, especially in Africa, will continue to experience increasing cohort size for several more decades.     

Intensive Parenting: Fertility and Breastfeeding Duration in the United States

Using 30 years of longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of women, we study the association between breastfeeding duration and completed fertility, fertility expectations, and birth spacing. We find that women who breastfeed their first child for five months or longer are a distinct group. They have more children overall and higher odds of having three or more children rather than two, compared with women who breastfeed for shorter durations or not at all. Expected fertility is associated with initiating breastfeeding but not with how long mothers breastfeed. Thus, women who breastfeed longer do not differ significantly from other breastfeeding women in their early fertility expectations. Rather, across the life course, these women achieve and even exceed their earlier fertility expectations. Women who breastfeed for shorter durations (1–21 weeks) are more likely to fall short of their expected fertility than to achieve or exceed their expectations, and they are significantly less likely than women who breastfeed for longer durations (≥22 weeks) to exceed their expected fertility. In contrast, women who breastfeed longer are as likely to exceed as to achieve their earlier expectations, and the difference between their probability of falling short versus exceeding their fertility expectations is relatively small and at the boundary of statistical significance (p = .096). These differences in fertility are not explained by differences in personal and family resources, including family income or labor market attachment. Our findings suggest that breastfeeding duration may serve as a proxy for identifying a distinct approach to parenting. Women who breastfeed longer have reproductive patterns quite different than their socioeconomic position would predict. They both have more children and invest more time in those children.     

Is Fertility Behavior in Our Genes? Findings from a Danish Twin Study

This article investigates the fertility of Danish twins born during the periods 1870–1910 and 1953–64 in order to pursue two central questions for understanding human reproduction: Do genetic dispositions influence fertility and fertility-related behavior? Does the relevance of the “nature versus nurture” debate shift over time or with demographic regimes? The authors find that genetic influences on fertility exist, but that their relative magnitude and pattern are contingent on gender and on the socioeconomic environment experienced by cohorts. Among females born in 1880–90 and after 1955, about 30–50 percent of the variance in fertility is due to genetic influences; these influences are substantially smaller for earlier and for interim birth cohorts. Male fertility is generally subject to smaller genetic and larger shared-environment effects than female fertility. Because genetic effects are most prevalent in situations with deliberately controlled fertility and relatively egalitarian socioeconomic opportunities, the authors propose that the genetic dispositions affect primarily fertility behavior and motivations for having children. Analyses of fertility motivations, measured by age of first attempt to have a child, support this interpretation.