Science indicators/1976: A critique

Science Indicators/1976 (SI/76) is the third volume in a biennial series of profiles of contemporary U.S. science and scientists produced by the National Science Foudation under the direction of its National Science Board. The bulk of this volume, as of its predecessors, consists primarily of charts, figures and tables that contain time series data representing resources, activities and products of American science. The implicit theoretical structure that guided the collection of these data, a two-tiered input-output model, is described and criticized as are the data themselves. The diagnosis of U.S. science today that emerges from these data is one of reasonably sound health. But SI/76 is also, again implicitly, a device for projection and here the picture is gloomier: as resources for science dwindle so must the magnitude of the enterprise decline, together quite possibly with the quality of its products. Although brickbats are hurled at SI/76, particularly for its inadequate disaggregation and lack of quantitative analyses, it is judged to be a work of extremely high quality and utility.     

Social indicators: A statistician's view

In the following we consider the problem areas of social indicator research which are of concern to the statistician and in which he can prove helpful. Among these are the purposes of social indicators, what social variables should be considered as conceivable variables related to quality of life, what data should be collected taking in account the difficulty of not being able to directly measure variables of interest, how does one collect the data (which is usually in the form of a time series) guarding against multicollinearity, and how should the collected data be handled and analyzed. We discuss why in social indicator research the secular trends, cyclical movements, seasonal variations and irregular fluctuations must be taken into account. Techniques are discussed for relating lead indicators in one time period to coincident indicators in another period. Finally we present a select bibliography in canonical correlation, forecasting, indicators and index numbers, path analysis, regression analysis, simulation techniques, time series analysis and other areas useful in analyzing social indicator data.     

Social indicators,health policy,and the elderly

Health-service researchers, policy analysts, and politicians face several problems in attempting to evaluate health care programs and make relevant policy decisions. The possible rôle of social indicators is discussed in these regards and is applied in an important health care context, the utilization of ancillary health services by the elderly. A Western Canadian research study substantiates the academic and applied value of the social indicators approach with respect to health services planning, research, and policy decision-making.     

A critique of the ZPG urban stress test: On the uses and misuses of social indicators

This is an expanded version of a paper originally prepared for presentation at the annual meetings of the North Central Sociological Association: Louisville, KY; March 22–24, 1990.     

Worker training: A review, critique, and extension

Why does employee training in the US lag behind that of our industrial counterparts? We provide an overview of employee training in the US and a review of American employee training literature and concepts. Our criticism of this literature is based on its limited conceptual structure that derives from an over-reliance on the distinction between “general” versus “specific” training. We find this dichotomy to be both empirically and theoretically imprecise. We also provide a brief overview of employee training in other industrialized nations. In combination, the critique of the American literature and the review of the international literature provide a framework for suggesting new approaches to training and its study in the United States. We argue that such a new approach is needed both to understand employee training in the US and to provide an empirical framework for guiding its growth and development.     

Social indicators of youth development and educational performance: A programmatic statement

This paper argues for the use of social indicators, in conjunction with the traditional norm-referenced and criterion-referenced tests, to assess the effects of local educational systems. A conceptual framework for the study of educational performance is presented, interrelating (1) personal resources invested by youth, (2) opportunities for development, (3) developmental behaviors, (4) educational system impacts, and (5) other contextual variables, which together affect (6) progress toward adulthood. Four types of variables and 15 content areas that should be monitored are described, with examples of social indicators for each. Procedures are presented for selecting variables, collecting time-series data, and analyzing and reporting the indicators, relying entirely on existing data sources. Appendices include a data base screening form, a statistic screening form, and a list of United States national, state, county, and city sources of time-series data relevant to youth development and educational performance.     

Social indicators of well being: A comparitive study between students in Bahrain

This study compares a sample of 76 male and 100 female university students with the Bahraini sample which formed part of Michalos's 1984 global study of well-being. Using MDT, temporal changes were explored in students' perceptions of their aspirations and actual living conditions after a decade of major social changes. Within sample comparisons were made between males and females and those majoring in education and business to investigate the differences on the various discrepancies. Regression results were at variance with those of 1984. The Self/Needs gap (person-environment fit theory) had the greatest influence on Life Satisfaction, followed by Self/Wants and Self/Progress discrepancies. The Self/Deserves gap (equity theory) had the greatest influence on Happiness followed by Self/Wants and Self/Progress. The strong influence of social comparison (Self/Others gap) has been presently overtaken by needs and equity. A socio-historical explanation was offered for these temporal changes in students' perceived gaps between what they have and aspire to. This and other results regarding the effect of gender and specializaton on perceived gaps suggest a useful link between wide gaps and objective social indicators. The subjective meaning of Satisfaction and Happiness to a female sample was qualitatively explored. Results highlight the centrality of religion as an ethical, social and cultural idiom. Using the life meaning construct of Zika and Chamberlin (1992), religion seems to provide personal meaning, which in turn mediates to well-being.     

Social indicators of racial parity

Using the U.S. Census' Social Indicators III (73 indicators) and the OECD List of Social Indicators (33 indicators), a modified Delphi panel was surveyed in two rounds to rank 106 items and 19 “areas of major social concerns” as to how “essential” or “unnecessary” each indicator was in measuring racial parity in the U.S. A hypothesis about how much consensus was reached overall between the first- and second-round responses and hypotheses about comparative views among Academics, minority Advocates and Government researchers-administrators were tested (See Table I). From the second-round returns, the top 15 indicators (selected by the panel) and the 19 major areas of social concerns were analyzed. Secondary data were gathered and built into a Dissimilarity Index. Comparisons were analyzed statistically in increments of 5 indicators (quintiles), and overall to determine how much parity, or equality, between Afro-Americans and Whites had been obtained between the “early 1980s” and the “early 1990s”.     

Social indicators and social management

The social indicators movement, which has attained world-wide significance, is based on awareness of the increasing necessity for a conscious regulation of social processes, as well as on the successful utilization of the social sciences. Both of these processes depend on: the character of the social order in the different countries, conceptions of the nature and functions of science, and the nature and functions of social indicators. Irrespective of international differences, however, many common problems exist; this makes their discussion possible despite different philosophical and sociological paradigms. Two main problems are addressed: (1) the definition of the concept of “system of social indicators” and especially “unity of objective and subjective indicators”, and (2) the definition of the conditions for their most effective involvement in the purposeful regulation of the social processes.     

Social indicators of perceived life quality

Modern societies in both developing and developed countries have real and legitimate concerns about the enhancement, maintenance, and redistribution of individual well-being. Indicators of perceived well-being provide direct measures of what societies are trying to achieve, permit cross-sector comparisons, can indicate the adequacy of coverage of ‘objective’ indicators, and can contribute to social policy making. in both the long and short run. Some commentators, however, have suggested perceptual indicators suffer from methodological weaknesses associated with their validity, interpretability, completeness, and utility. Each of these possible weaknesses is addressed in some detail. New research evidence and certain philosophical perspectives are presented, and it is concluded that none of these presumed weaknesses is sufficient to invalidate the development and use of perceptual indicators. Suggestions are made concerning methodological research needed to support the development of indicators of perceived well-being. It is noted that the materials and results developed in the author's research on Americans' perceptions of life quality may be useful for suggesting approaches to the development of indicators of perceived life quality relevant to other cultures.     

Social indicators and crime rate forecasting

This paper presents an attempt to use macrodynamic social indicators in a time series analysis of three crime categories-homicide; property and; robbery offenses in Israel. Earlier findings such as the relationship between homicide and unemployment, and density of population and property offenses are confirmed by the analysis. The models that are constructed are used later for forecasting and yield a satisfactory performance of at least two of the crime models.     

Social indicators for social planning: The case of Israel

Social planning (SP) is viewed as an organizing framework for guiding government intervention in social life. Social indicators (SI) can provide the informational basis for formulating policies, preparing social plans and evaluating the impact of government activities. Both SP and SI are only two links in a desired sequence of organized social action. But given the present state of the art, the urgency of social problems and the opportunity cost of waiting for further theoretical development-initial efforts should be directed at developing SI for SP. Israel's experience is presented as an example of:

1. The ideological and operational background to specific types of intervention of the state. Within this framework the question arises whether vagueness on the subject of SP can be regarded as the cause of casual and negligent treatment of social problems by government.
2. Specific areas that have been neglected, or that have not been given adequate attention, because of the lack of SI to assist in acquiring an overall understanding of societal changes.

These examples are used as a basis for suggesting some practical possibilities of developing SI and SP in Israel and elsewhere.     

Social indicators of human nutrition: Measures of nutritional status

The social indicators movement has neglected indicators of nutritional status. This report presents a discussion of the problems of validity, reliability and precision that plague current measures of nutritional status. Additional concerns for technically feasible and economically sound field methods are also expressed. The advantages of the various indicators are outlined. Indicators to measure the distribution of nutritional status across subgroups are presented. Further researcher is suggested.     

Social indicators in statewide Mental Health planning: Lessons from California

The 1963 Community Mental Health Centers Act stimulated state government interest in assessing local needs for mental health services. In 1973 California began using 22 social indicators to calculate a county-by-county mental health service Need Index used in a formula for distributing incremental mental health funds. California's Need Index is misleading in that 99 percent of its variance across counties is explained by counties' population sizes alone. Stepwise multiple linear regression shows that 99 percent of the residual one percent of the variance in Need Index is explained by a mere five of the 22 social indicators. California's Need Index does not, therefore, represent adequately the factors influencing the need for public mental health funds. Methods for overcoming the defects in Need Index are suggested. Caveats and contextual analyses to guide social-indicator-based allocation of mental health funds are discussed.     

Social aspects of economic readjustment in Hungary: A consideration of the role of social-economic indicators

Social Accounting Matrices have been used as a means of analysing national economic structure but it is argued in this paper that their usefulness could be enhanced if they were designed to include compatible sets of socio-economic indicators which might reflect physical stocks and flows rather than strictly monetary flows. This paper considers ways in which this might be accomplished, giving particular consideration to optional approaches based on economic, social and quality of life indicators. Three approaches to providing supplementary information to the conventional Social Accounting Matrix model are considered. These include the incorporation of indicators of characteristics of households, the disaggregation of data to a geographical base and use of indicators of social attitudes and expectations. Although work continues on the first two of these suggestions, certain results concerning the third are presented. A consideration is given to the use of available secondary data to meet the needs identified. It is shown, however, that such information fails to meet the objectives of the study for various reasons. It is concluded that the necessary data can only be collected by surveys. Preliminary results of a survey carried out in Hungary beginning in May 1991 by Gallup/Hungary are presented. This information reflects attitudes of the population toward changes which are taking place and would seem to provide a means of estimating perceptions of changes in expected quality of life that result from the current efforts toward economic readjustment in Hungary.     

Factorial ecology: A critique and some suggestions

Studies in factorial ecology have typically used the principal factor procedure coupled with varimax rotation. Since it can be shown that the results one obtains vary according to the factor and rotation models he employs, and since there is no one “best” way of obtaining initial and derived factor solutions, it is proposed that future research in the area adopt an approach involving the simultaneous use of several different computing algorithms for obtaining initial solutions and both orthogonal and oblique rotation procedures to avoid the possibility that the results one obtains are not method-dependent. Ideally, the factor models employed should differ maximally with respect to the principles upon which they are based. If one finds a given factor regardless of the method he uses, only then can he assert with any confidencethat it is not an artifact of his method. Factorial ecologists are often interested in computing “factor scores”, but “true” factor scores are not uniquely computable; they can only be estimated. Since the proposed research strategy involves using either a component or an image model, in which the corresponding scores are exact and uniquely computable, the factor score problem is, in a sense, solved. Next it is suggested that, by using orthogonal solutions, factorial ecologists may be overlooking a very important piece of information—the correlation between the factors. There is some reason to believe that this varies from city to city, and may account for the fact that some factors which emerge in studies of Western cities are sometimes not found in cities elsewhere. Some comments are also made on the value of using census tract data, and on the availability of computer programs for different initial and derived factor solutions.