Measurement of social development: an international comparison

PQLI and HDI are the two most popular measures of development, besides per capita income. Over the years, PQLI appears to be not much in use for regional comparisons, especially after the introduction of HDI. While PQLI considers only the physical variables—adult literacy, life expectancy at birth and infant survival rate, HDI has life expectancy at birth, educational attainment and real GDP per capita (PPP$). PQLI and HDI are similar, the main difference between the two being the inclusion of income in HDI and exclusion of the same from PQLI. In a sense, HDI represents both physical and financial attributes of development and PQLI has only the physical aspects of life. The present author took the lines of PQLI to express development in terms of physical variables and considering development as a multidimensional phenomenon, Ray (1989) [Ray, A. K. (1989). On the measurement of certain aspects of social development, Social Indicators Research (Vol. 21, pp. 35–92). The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.] included as many as 13 physical variables to represent social development across 40 countries; no financial variable was included in the construction of composite index, termed as the Social Development Index, SDI. Incidentally, like PQLI, SDI was introduced before HDI. Unlike PQLI and HDI, SDI considers (i) a large number of indicators representing various concern areas and (ii) a set of objective methods for combining the development indicators as a composite index. Ray (1989) has been restated and updated in this article with newer cross-country information. In the present study, SDI has been constructed for over 102 countries, including 21 OECD countries, using 10 development indicators, instead of 13 indicators in the past. Apart from presenting objective methods for combining indicators into SDI, the present study asserts that SDI works better than HDI as a measure of development for an international comparison. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and not of the institution he serves.     

A critique of Mukherjee's index of physical quality of life

In their paper on PQLI, Mukherjee, Ray and Rajyalaxmi, have attempted to repeat Morris's Calculations, after introducing refinements, for inter-temporal and inter-regional comparisons for India, and for studying the growth of PQLI for India. They also provided a rationale for Morris's equal weights system. This Critique shows that the PQLI that Mukherjee et al. developed is totally different from Moris's PQLI, that it does not possess the essential qualities of the latter, that it leads to distorted conclusions, that it cannot measure growth and that the rationale which is based on it cannot support Morris's equal weights system.     

An automatic-democratic approach to weight setting for the new human development index

Perhaps the most difficult aspect of constructing a multi-dimensional index is that of choosing weights for the components. This problem is often bypassed by adopting the ‘agnostic’ option of equal weights, as in the human development index. This is an annual ranking of countries produced by the United Nations Development Programme based on life expectancy, education, and per capita gross national income. These three dimensions are now aggregated multiplicatively. Whatever weights (exponents) are chosen for these dimensions, some nations will feel disadvantaged. To avoid the use of arbitrary weights, we propose for consideration a two-step approach: (1) find the most advantageous set of weights for each nation in turn, and (2) regress the associated optimal scores on the underlying indicators to find a single weight set. This approach has the properties of non-subjectivity, fairness, and convenience. The result is that the highest weight is placed on the life expectancy dimension.     

Comparative analysis of the index of our population life quality]

A comprehensive method of calculating and measuring a country's or an area's health and literacy levels is examined. The method, known as population quality life inference (PQLI), was used to determine which of China's provinces has the highest and the lowest degree of population quality. The PQLI indicates infant mortality, average life expectancy of 1 year olds, and literacy rates of those 15 years and older. Because developing countries traditionally have high rates of infant mortality and illiteracy and low life expectancy rates during their industrialization, measuring the degree of population quality of life improvement of such countries during this period was found to be significant. These factors (infant mortality, illiteracy, and life expectancy) will improve substantially as industrialization continues. In order to compare various areas, these 3 factors must be changed into "inferences" 0-100, "0" representing the lowest population quality and "100" the highest. These 3 inferences must then be averaged in order to calculate the PQLI. For example: life expectancy value 77 (highest in the world) minus 38 (lowest)/100 = .39. In order to measure the value of India's life expectancy: value of 1-year-old's life expectancy = 56 (1-year-old's life expectancy in India) minus 38/.39 = 46. The value of adult illiteracy does not need to be changed. Thus, the actual comparison will be based on the values of the 3 inferences. Using this method of calculation, it is concluded that the PQLI analysis indicated that Peking (93.04) is the highest in China and Yumnan Province (60.72) is the lowest.     

The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy

A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.     

Do some authoritarian governments foster physical quality of life?

A recent claim that the populations of populist authoritarian governments have relatively high physical quality of life is tested empirically and found to be true. Analysis of life expectancy in 103 countries shows that although political rights contribute to the prediction of life expectancy, net of GNP per capita, one category of authoritarian governments, here called the constrained authoritarians, has higher than expected physical quality of life. Of interest is the additional finding that location in sub-Saharan Africa has a strong negative impact on life expectancy, net of GNP and political rights.I appreciate the contributions to this paper of Linda Bush, Rebecca Miles Doan, Eugene Erickson, Joe Francis, Donald Freebairn, Victor Nee and Linda Jacobsen.     

Do Standards of Living Converge? A Cross-country Study

Cross-country convergence in `standards ofliving' is an important phenomenon thatattracted the researchers in Economics for along period. These studies take into accountthe growth of per capita gross domesticproduct or labor productivity as a measure ofstandard of living. The present study measuresthe standard of living in terms of theindicators reflecting the quality of life ofthe inhabitants of the country rather thanincome or productivity and examines whetherstandards of living converge across economiesover a fairly long period of time, such as 35years (1960–1995). In this connection, the paperfollows the straightforward approach to testinter-country convergence which relates therate of growth of income (GDP) per capita withinitial income. The convergence tests for theindicators reflecting quality of life of humanbeings, such as, infant survival rate, lifeexpectancy at birth, adult literacy rate,calorie intake as percentage of requirement forthe full sample as well as for three incomegroups indicate that in almost for all thecases for all the indicators divergence isobserved rather than convergence. For infantsurvival rate and life expectancy for the highincome group no definite indication issuggestive. Divergence is also observed forper capita real gross domestic product for alltypes of sample.     

Basic Minimum Needs,Quality of Life and Selected Correlates: Explorations in Villages in Northern India

For those involved in international development, one of the major goals is an improvement in the quality of life of the poor. Bhargava and Chakrabati (1992: 133) see the “primary objective of development at any given time is to improve the quality of life”. Indeed, the mission statement for an international development organization explicitly commits itself to the improvement of the quality of life for the “poorest of the poor” (DID, 1994). Social indicators, as “transeconomic” measures of quality of life, have “become an integral part of 'development indicators”' (Kao and Liu, 1984: 400; see, also Kahn, 1991). The connection between quality of life and development extends beyond the Third World. For example, in the U.S. Myers (1987) found quality of life influenced inmigration to Austin, Texas, thus affecting its economic development. Undoubtedly the majority of the connections between social indicators and development has been examined at the macro, or national levels using economic, health, education and other objective, comparative indices. Recognizing that such measures as GNP are oftentimes inadequate, assorted indices have been derived to gauge the changes in social development over time, e.g., the well-known Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) constructed by the Overseas Development Council (Morris, 1976). Many of these tend to focus on objective, material indicators (commodity possessions) as opposed to the more subjective ones (Anand and Ravallion, 1993). It is not the purpose of this paper to examine the various critics' arguments about the strengths and weaknesses of extant macro versus micro indices, but rather to lend support for the general need to assess development and social change through social indicators, whether macro or micro, objective or subjective. Ultimately, the purpose of the assessment should guide which social indicators are selected. The purpose of this paper is to examine several issues arising from the linkages between development efforts and quality of life (QOL). Using empirical data which were gathered to evaluate a community development project in the Garhwal region of Northern India, several issues, germane to both social indicators and development, will be investigated. These include: (1) the relationship between “Basic Minimum Needs” (BMNs) and QOL, (2) some methodological innovations for measuring both BMNs and QOL, and (3) selected correlates of BMNs and social indicators of QOL for Garhwali villagers. Before describing the project and its findings, we will first place it in the overall development context.     

A macrodynamic analysis of changes in mortality indexes in the United States, 1946–75: Some preliminary results

This paper extends earlier research by Brenner and by Land and Felson on the specification and estimation of macrodynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in American mortality indexes as a function of exogenous changes in societal conditions (social, demographic, economic, and health care). After reviewing the record of annual changes in several general and cause — specific mortality indexes for the post-World War II United States, patterns of temporal covariation in the indexes are discussed and some tentative structural-equation models are described. Among other findings, these models indicate: (1) that changes in the age structure of the American population have substantial impacts on changes in mortality rates for diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems as well as on deaths due to cirrhosis of the liver, accidents, and violence; (2) that the infective and parasitic diseases mortality rate is more closely related to per capita public health expenditures than to improvements in the general level of living in this post — war period; (3) that the business cycle, as indexed by the unemployment rate, has significant impacts on the cardiovascular, accident, and violence mortality rates; (4) that Brenner's finding of a positive association of an increase in the unemployment rate with an increase in cardiovascular diseases mortality two to three years later is partially mediated by an increase in per capita cigarette consumption during the economic recovery following a recession; (5) that an increase in the per capita level of cigarette consumption increases the respiratory systems mortality rate; (6) that both the general and the respiratory neoplasms mortality rates are more strongly affected by long-term moving averages of annual per capita levels of cigarette consumption than by single-years levels; (7) that the level of the degenerative diseases mortality rate is positively affected by an increase in per capita liquor consumption and negatively affected by an increase in health care utilization; (8) that the percentage of all vehicles traveling on highways at high speed is the exposure index most closely associated (of several that were studied) to the motor vehicle accident mortality rate; (9) that the levels of the maternal and infant mortality rates are positively related to an increase in the fertility rate (exposure) and negatively related to those advances in health care services associated with hospital births; (10) that the accuracy with which short-term changes in the crude mortality rate can be predicted from a knowledge of cause-specific mortality rates and how the latter are affected by societal conditions is effectively limited by the degree of accuracy of predictions of the respiratory diseases mortality rate because of its volatile influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis component; and (11) that short-term changes in the life expectancy index can be somewhat more accurately predicted from such knowledge. Although most of these relationships have been noted before in mortality studies, only a small fraction have been studied in a macrodynamic structural-equation models context. These findings thus constitute a baseline of statistical evidence which can be explored in future research.     

Strongly pressed by the task of population control

Today, the world population grows at an annual rate of over 80 million. The activities of "the Day of the 5 Billion" sponsored by the United Nations sounds alarm to the world: It is an emerging task to strictly control human reproduction. China, being a developing country, knows only too well the difficulties that over-rapid population growth brings upon economic and social development. Population control is a pressing task. China would like to make the nation prosperous by quadrupling the gross national product (GNP) to US$800 or US$1000 per capita, thus raising the people's living standard to the level of being well-off at the end of the century. The GNP would be quadrupled again to US$4000 per capita with the standard of living raised by the mid-21st century. In order to realize strategic goals, China must strive to control the total population of China at about 1.2 billion at the turn of the century, leaving a better population structure for the next century. At present, China has a population of 1.057 billion and is faced with a new baby boom. It is hoped that under the leadership of the Party's Central Committee and the State Council, governments at all levels, and the people of all nationalities will do a better job in population control by fulfilling the population plan for this year so as to lay down a good foundation for enforcing the plan during the 7th 5-year plan. Meanwhile, China will continue to make new contributions to the stabilization of the world's population together with the UNFPA and other international bodies and friendly countries who support China's population control policy.     

Monitoring and interpreting turning points in educational indicators

Educational indicators are statistical time series that reflect the state of some element of the educational system. Most turning points in educational indicators are not cyclical, but respond to major societal events. Three examples are presented: The probability of a 10th grader continuing to the 11th grade has increased linearly for 60 years, being affected positively by unemployment and negatively by increase in GNP per capita and by military expansion. Baccalaureate degrees per high school graduate four years earlier declined with the expansion of secondary education following the 1890's, rising after World War I, falling as the Depression approached. A major turning point occurred after World War II and the indicator peaked in 1950. A current downward turning point in school enrollment rate of 18–19 year old males may have been prompted by a change in selective service policies granting exemptions to college enrollees. Continuous monitorship of educational indicators would facilitate the development of policy and programs to adjust to dysfunctional educational trends.     

Measuring the Well-Beings of the Developing Countries: Achievement and Improvement Indices

The paradigm of development in the recent days has been shifted from Per Capita Gross National Product (PCGNP) to Human Well-being. It has also been admitted broadly that PCGNP does not automatically transformed into human well-being. It has thus become common practice to use a range of socio-economic variables for measuring the human Well-being (quality of life) in a country. In order to measure the well-being of about 70 developing countries, this study widens the scope of the Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) introduced by Morris, by incorporating a number of social aspects of life. On the basis of these indicators, the achievements in the quality of life of these countries are analyzed in this study. An attempt is also made to compare the decadal improvements in their performances in respect of the quality of life over a period of 1960 to 1990. The study also attempts to analyze the relations between achievements and improvements of quality of life and achievements and improvements in terms of PCRGDP of the countries.     

分年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的实验研究——以甘肃省为例

人均期望寿命是分析、评价人口健康状况,衡量社会经济发展及医疗卫生服务水平的重要指标。从2014年开始人均期望寿命的提高被纳入卫生计生系统考核内容,受到各级政府的重视。为了有效地甄别和评价政策实施对人均期望寿命提高的贡献程度,需要精确地估计和判断各年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命提高的影响。在实践中,针对某一年龄组或某一特定人群死亡率的变动以及相关政策实施对人均期望寿命的影响鲜有较为精确的定量解答或快速有效的估算办法。本研究通过数据实验方法和计算机辅助计算建立一套可以较为精确地估算某一区域内某一年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的计算方法和结果集,利用这种方法可以开展不同类型、不同区域内人口死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的快速估算。利用估算结果可以对区域内政策实施效果进行较为科学的评估或评价。文章以中国2010年人口普查数据中甘肃省各年龄组分性别死亡率数据为基础对上述研究进行实证分析和验证。     

The pursuit of health

This paper delineates health legislation through a review of the literature as it relates to the cost of medical care; it also demonstrates a death-coding system that would be compatible with the cause of death and not the disease. Three tables and ten figures depict the leading causes of death by number and rate for Georgia and the U.S., 1900–1973; infectious and chronic disease death rates, U.S., 1900–70; cycles of infectious and chronic disease patterns; health expenditures, U.S., 1930–75, per capita and percent of GNP; an epidemiological model for health policy analysis; and sample certificates of death.     

What Aspects of Society Matter for the Quality of Life of a Minority? Global Evidence from the New Gay Happiness Index

There is great variation in views on and treatment of minorities such as gay men across the world. We are the first to pinpoint what features of societies are beneficial to gay men’s quality of life by using a unique new cross-country dataset covering 110 countries, the Gay Happiness Index. It covers how gays perceive public opinion about them, how they experience behavior towards them and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our study is based on the premise that it is important to look at minority-specific effects of policies and institutions and not solely at the effects for the average citizen, as well as the transmission mechanisms through which policies and institutions affect life satisfaction. We find that factors such as equal legal rights for gay people, GDP per capita, democracy and globalization relate positively to the quality of life of gay men, primarily by shaping public opinion and behavior in a pro-gay direction. Religion (the shares of Muslims and Orthodox Christians) and living in a post-communist country tend to relate negatively to our quality of life indicators. Most of these factors have been shown to matter for the well-being of people in general as well, which may be taken to suggest that gay people benefit from being included in society—legally, socially and economically—on the same terms as others.     

Improvements in Life Expectancy: 1960–1995 an Exploratory Analysis

Human history observed significant changes in life expectancy over the last three and half decades (1960–1995). This study attempts to explore the determinant factors behind improvements in life expectancy in most of the countries in the Post World War II period. In this context the study estimates a double logarithmic convergence type model where the dependent variable is relative change of life over the period and the explanatory variables are initial per capita real gross domestic product, initial per capita calorie intake as percentage of requirement, adult literacy rate at the initial point of time, and initial physician per thousand of population. The study estimates different variants of the basic model. Female population has been treated separately. All estimates have been offered for three broad income groups low, middle and high. An attempt is also made to take into account the effects of some public health measures such as access to safe drinking water and access to sanitation.     

Reform Brings Marked Increase in Quality of Life for Chinese

One of the most tangible benefits brought about by the reform and opening up program initiated in the end of 1978 by the late Deng Xiaoping has been the continual rise in the quality of life for the average Chinese people. This is evidenced by rising per capita incomes, poverty alleviation, better education for all, a sharp decrease in the Engel抯 coefficient, and a host of other indicators. Rising Incomes Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has been growing at an average annual rate of…     

中国矿产资源与经济可持续发展研究

矿产资源在中国经济发展中占据非常重要的地位。中国的石油、天然气、铁、铜、铝土矿、金、钾盐等关系国计民生的大宗矿产不是储量有限 ,就是质量低劣。中国矿产资源存量和开发方面都存在问题。根据预测 ,即使我们采取最严格的控制人口的生育政策 ,未来中国总人口也将持续增加 5 0年。总人口的增加意味着我国未来人均矿产资源变得更少。因此 ,在未来相当长的时期内 ,我们一方面要继续实行低生育率政策以控制人口数量过快增长 ,使我国的人均矿产资源控制在可接受的范围内 ;另一方面要提高矿产资源可持续利用以促进经济可持续发展     

Total fertility rate,women's education,and women's work: What are the relationships?

This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on seventy-one countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered. The first model regresses five variables on total fertility rate: per capita Cross National Product (GNP), percentage of women ages 15 to 19 who are married, female life expectancy at birth, calories available as a percentage of need, and percentage of married couples using contraception. The second model includes two additional regressors: the average number of years of schooling for women, and the percentage of women in the labor force. These seven variables are regressed on total fertility rate. Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate.     

World Energy Production,Population Growth,and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge

The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930–2030. After more than a century of strong growth—energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an epidemic of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks—worldwide.