Evaluative comparisons of distributions of a social variable: Basic issues and criteria

A distribution of a social variable over a population is a function that assigns a level or value of the variable to each person in the population. Evaluative comparisons of distributions of the variable occur when some distributions are judged to be more conducive to social well being than others, or when some distributions are judged to be better than others from the viewpoint of an individual. The meaningfulness of social and individual preference/value judgments for a social variable in isolation from other aspects of a social system is discussed from a systems perspective. Granting the independence conditions that give meaning to such judgments, criteria that relate social preferences to the preferences of the individuals in the population are examined. Aspects of the social ordering relations that arise from these criteria are discussed along with the compatibility or incompatibility of various criteria.     

The roles of individuals' socioeconomic characteristics and the government family planning program in China's fertility decline

This paper explores answers to the following two questions: first, did individuals' socioeconomic characteristics play any role in the rapid fertility decline that occurred in China during the 1970's? Secondly, if the rapid fertility decline during the 1970s is mostly a result of the government policy, as many have perceived, to what extent was the government policy effective? Using the 1982 Chinese 1/1000 fertility survey data for Hebei province of China, this paper examines variation in fertility among women of two age cohorts by linking their fertility outcome with their socioeconomic background and earlier reproductive experiences. In addition, this paper assesses the effect of government policy by comparing the determinants of fertility outcome between two cohorts of women and by studying the factors affecting their current contraceptive use. The findings reveal that the individual's socioeconomic background was important in explaining earlier fertility variation. Government policy, although powerful enough to override most of the effect of socioeconomic factors on fertility, was not able to eliminate differences in contraceptive behavior among Chinese women.     

The Old Old — or the New Old?

This paper gives an account of the demographic trends that are bringing about changes in the population aged 80 years and older in Australia. The old old population of the future will differ in size and structure from earlier cohorts reaching advanced age: an examination is made of the contribution of the effects of past birth rates; recent changes in mortality at older ages; the impact of immigration especially on the cultural diversity of the old old; and changes in sex ratios and marriage patterns that result in changes in social circumstances. The indications are that a much more dynamic view of the old old is required. The present report is the first in a three-part study which mill cover social and health trends and discuss the implications of the newly emergent old old population for social policy.     

A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns: Preference Theory

Preference theory is a new approach to explaining current and future patterns of employment and fertility among women in modern societies. Although economists usually claim that preferences cannot be measured, methods for identifying women's and men's lifestyle preferences were developed and applied in British (and Spanish) national surveys, confirming the results of previous British and American studies showing three distinct lifestyle preference groups. The results confirm the heterogeneity of women's preferences and suggest that preferences are the primary determinant of fertility and employment decisions. The implications for policies to raise fertility are discussed.     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

Family composition and the labor force activity of American wives

This is a study of the employment patterns of American wives in relation to the composition of their families. The data are taken from the 1960 United States Census, both from published tabulations and the 1/1000 sample. The population studied is non-Negro, non-farm, married, husband present women who are under the age of sixty. The methods of analysis used include the comparison of employment rates among subpopulations and a dummy variable regression technique. Aspects of family composition studied include age of the youngest child (in single years in order to determine whether there are discontinuities in the rates of employment when youngest children enter school, etc.), number of children in the family, and the presence of other relatives in the family. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of family status differentials in employment including differential preferences for employment, differential fertility experience, and differential demands on the mother’s time. Some discussion of the use of cross section data of this sort to infer life cycle patterns of employment is included.     

The harmonic mean as the basis of a realistic two-sex marriage model

The “two-sex problem” is one of attempting to preserve the essential character of male and female rates of marriage (or birth), since the expression of those rates is influenced both by the age-sex composition of the population and the underlying age-sex schedule of preferences. The present paper focuses on marriage and advances a theoretically based, realistic, and conceptually simple solution. In the continuous case, where exact male and female ages are used, equation (11) provides a mathematical relationship which equates the sum of the male and female marriage propensities of the observed population with that of the model. When discrete age intervals are used, the two-sex consistency condition is given by equation (14) which equates observed and model population rates calculated using the harmonic means of the number of persons in the relevant male and female age groups. The harmonic mean consistency condition is shown to be fully sensitive to the competitive nature of the “marriage market.” When compared with alternative approaches to the two-sex problem in the context of data for Sweden, 1961–64, the simple harmonic mean method yields results fairly similar to those of the other methods. None of the two-sex methods do particularly well at predicting the actual distribution of marriages, however. The likely reason is that the underlying marriage preferences changed, a circumstance which emphasizes the importance of carefully conceptualizing how observed behavior can be decomposed into the effects produced by age-sex composition and those produced by the underlying preferences.     

Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and project mortality trends

It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating morbidity distributions in the national population using auxiliary biomedical evidence and theory to estimate transitions to morbidity states from a cohort mortality time series. We present computational methods which employ these estimates of morbid state transitions to produce life table functions for both primary (morbidity) and secondary (mortality) decrements. These methods are illustrated using data on stomach cancer mortality for nine white male cohorts, aged 30 to 70 in 1950, observed for a 28-year period (1950 to 1977).     

Collective preferences as predictors of interstate migration

The comparison of objective and subjective social indicators can be illuminated by comparing their relations to individual choice, of which migration is an important instance. We have replicated for U.S. states Lowry's (1966) regression model of migration among SMSA's, and added an indirect subjective measure of quality of life in each state. This measure is based on a Gallup survey asking respondents about their preferences among states of the United States as places to live. A measure of collective preference for each state, as viewed by outsiders, is constructed from these responses. This new variable increases R ² from 0.798 to 0.828, and is itself predicted with an R ² of only 0.355 by objective variables. Objective indicators of well-being had increased R ² only from 0.762 to 0.798. We conclude that collective preferences — the subjective measure we have used — play an independent part in predicting migration.     

Ranking Income Distributions by Deprivation Orderings

This paper has examined the problem of ranking income distributions using absolute deprivation ordering. It appears that the ranking of distributions by this ordering may be more unambiguous than that generated by the relative deprivation ordering. The class of average deprivation indices consistent with the absolute deprivation criterion is also identified.     

Away from Dissatisfaction,Closer to Well-Being: A Multidimensional Synthetic Measure

As part of the international debate on methods for measuring the social progress of a population, there has been increasing interest in individual subjective opinions about different aspects of quality of life (elementary indicators). In the literature, many methods have been introduced for producing measures of subjective well-being based on these opinions. Some of these methods aim to construct synthetic measures that allow us to consider all the aspects simultaneously. This topic often requires subjective methodological choices and/or distributional assumptions and, when the opinions are encoded by means of categorical ordinal values, the eventual quantification of the original variables. Here, starting from the Istat multipurpose survey on households’—aspects of daily life, we propose an original method for constructing a global satisfaction index. We introduce a variable based on the joint distribution of all the elementary indicators that is able to express the individual degree of global satisfaction. This approach allows us to maintain the original ordinal data scale and to avoid any aggregation formula. By comparing the observed distribution of the new variable and the theoretical one, which refers to the situation of overall dissatisfaction (all individuals are dissatisfied for every aspect), we propose three indices of global satisfaction. We also implemented two simulation studies that confirms both the efficacy and robustness of our method. We then applied it to measure the global satisfaction degree of the Italian population, using Istat multipurpose survey data for the year 2013.     

The Effects of Children's Schooling on Fertility Limitation

Many theories of fertility predict that mass education reduces fertility, but this effect may be produced in a variety of ways. In this paper, microdemographic data from a rural community in Nepal, in which the spread of mass education and fertility limitation is just beginning, are used to examine these links. The analyses contrast the influence of parents' and children's educational experiences of parents' fertility preferences and behaviour. The results indicate that children's schooling has a strong influence on both fertility preferences and behaviour. The effects of parental schooling are weaker, and also inconsistent in different models. These findings provide support for theories that link mass education to the onset of fertility limitation through children's schooling experience.     

Improvingaccuracy in multiple regression estimates of population using principles from causal modelling

This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimates. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that it uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.     

The One‐Child Policy in Shanghai: Acceptance and Internalization

China's one‐child policy is a major example of social engineering and the subject of human rights concerns. Given the significance of the policy, it is important to ascertain the attitudes of Chinese citizens. We conducted interviews in 2003 with residents of Shanghai who were of childbearing age either at the policy's inception or at the time of the interview. Our respondents, who were generally well educated, did not perceive the policy as extraordinary when it was introduced; resignation to one more intrusive government regulation was mixed with understanding and even approval of the policy. People talked about the political and social context, demographic concerns, family economic strategy, and the results of government‐engineered gender equality. Among the young interviewees, the context has changed from a population striving to get by under tight government control to a much richer population that is upwardly mobile and perceives their local government to be basically beneficial. The one‐child family is considered normal; few are still concerned with the policy per se, while others see it as unnecessary. The one‐child policy seems to reflect Shanghainese current preferences; its status as a legal requirement may be largely irrelevant.     

A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change

A demographic measure is often expressed as a deterministic or stochastic function of multiple variables (covariates), and a general problem (the decomposition problem) is to assess contributions of individual covariates to a difference in the demographic measure (dependent variable) between two populations. We propose a method of decomposition analysis based on an assumption that covariates change continuously along an actual or hypothetical dimension. This assumption leads to a general model that logically justifies the additivity of covariate effects and the elimination of interaction terms, even if the dependent variable itself is a nonadditive function. A comparison with earlier methods illustrates other practical advantages of the method: in addition to an absence of residuals or interaction terms, the method can easily handle a large number of covariates and does not require a logically meaningful ordering of covariates. Two empirical examples show that the method can be applied flexibly to a wide variety of decomposition problems. This study also suggests that when data are available at multiple time points over a long interval, it is more accurate to compute an aggregated decomposition based on multiple subintervals than to compute a single decomposition for the entire study period.     

The coefficient of variation: Weighting considerations

Some background notes on inequality indices are presented. Equality is seen not as a distribution in which each cell receives an equal share of a resource but as one in which each share is proportional to a criterion or weighting variable for the cell. Instances are noted where the coefficient of variation has been calculated without full consideration of the weighting variable. This can result in misleading comparisons between distributions. A specially constructed data set illustrates that an unweighted coefficient of variation fails to satisfy the Pigou-Dalton principle of transfers and is therefore invalid as an inequality index.     

Conceptualizing and Measuring Quality of Life for National Policy

The interests in social indicators andsocial reporting started in the 1960s with thenew awareness of poverty in the midst ofaffluence. In this paper I first discuss thepoverty concept and its implication for socialpolicy strategy. The poverty concept should bebut one in a system of concepts that throwslight on the whole distribution of income andwealth and how income from labor as well asincome from capital is generated. The centralconcepts in the system are income and economicstandard, which I explain in differentperspectives on command over resources.The command-over-resources concept is usedto get from a narrow concept of materialwelfare that can be measured in money to awider concept of welfare that includes theuniversal common social concerns. I confess tobeing intrigued by the fact that a list ofsocial concerns can be agreed upon that seemsto be relevant across cultures, politicalsystems and times. I suggest that thissurmised universality springs from the great``life projects'' that all humans face over thelife cycle.I then discuss the role of social indicatorsand social reporting as continuous informationon these common concerns in the context of anepistemology of the democratic process. Socialreporting would serve the democratic processbest if it answers ``how it is'' and leaves theanswers on ``how it ought to be'' and ``whatshould be done'' to come about throughdiscussion among citizens.