Commodity price shocks and the distribution of income in commodity-dependent least-developed countries

Many least developed countries (LDCs) face commodity dependence on the export and import side. This paper develops a structuralist computable general equilibrium model for commodity-dependent LDCs and simulates global commodity price shocks for Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Mozambique. Results show important macroeconomic and distributional effects. Although increasing export commodity prices are beneficial, the high correlation with import commodity prices causes low or even negative combined effects. The magnitude of effects depends on the degree of import and export dependence, the production structure of the key commodity sectors and policies that determine the distribution of windfall profits.     

Distributional effects of international commodity price stabilization: Do the aggregate gains apply to individual producing countries?

This paper demonstrates the different producer gains and losses that can occur from a price stabilization scheme in a same market. An international buffer stock model integrated in a trade flow model of commodity exports of the Latin American economies is used to simulate two representative products: coffee, where instability in the world market has originated mainly from changes in supply, and copper, where the major source of world market disturbances have been demand shifts. The results show that global generalizations as to the net benefits or costs of price stabilization are erroneous at the producer country level in supply or supply/demand dominated instability, a condition that typifies many primary commodity markets.     

Policy responses to external shocks in sub-Saharan African countries

The author analyzes the experience of sub-Saharan African countries with external shocks in the form of the deterioration of the terms of trade and the world recession between 1973 and 1978, with distinction made between low-income and middle-income countries. Adjustment to external shocks in low-income sub-Saharan African countries took largely the form of reductions in imports through lower rates of economic growth and lower income elasticity of import demand while these countries lost export market shares. Losses in export market shares were smaller in the middle-income countries and in the entire group, export performance was positively correlated with the rate of economic growth.     

Societal shifts and changed patterns of poverty

Fritzell J, Ritakallio VM. Societal shifts and changed patterns of poverty Int J Soc Welfare 2010: ??: ??–??© 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This article uses data from the Luxembourg Income Study to analyse cross‐national and cross‐temporal poverty risks in 11 Western countries. We show that poverty risks have tended to increase from the early 1980s to 2000. In line with what we would expect based on the welfare state literature, the Nordic countries tend to have the lowest poverty rates. However, the proportion of the national population with a market income below the poverty threshold has increased in all countries and the cross‐national variation in market income poverty is not apparently related to the type of welfare state regime. We perform a simulation analysis to test whether structural factors, that is, compositional differences in age, family and labour market behaviour, could account for the cross‐national variation found. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of household labour market attachment for alleviating poverty risks, as well as for explaining the cross‐national variation in these risks.     

Public Opinion against Markets? Attitudes towards Market Distribution of Social Services – A Comparison of 17 Countries

This article studies how citizens view the appropriateness of market criteria for allocating services commonly associated with social citizenship rights and welfare state responsibility. The article focuses specifically on a potential role for the market in the provision of social services. The relationship between welfare policy institutions, socio‐economic class and attitudes is explored by comparing attitudes across 17 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, using multilevel modelling and data from the 2009 International Social Survey Programme. Results show that public support for market distribution of services is relatively weak in most countries, a result suggesting that public opinion is unlikely to pose a driving force within ongoing processes of welfare marketization. Still, attitudes are found to vary a lot across countries in tandem with between‐country variation in welfare policy design. First, aggregate public support for market distribution of services is stronger in countries with more private spending on services. Second, class differences in attitudes are larger in countries with more extensive state‐led delivery of services. Together, these results point to the operation of normative feedback‐effects flowing from existing welfare policy arrangements. The theoretical arguments and the empirical results presented in this article suggest that future research exploring the relationship between welfare policy and public opinion from a country‐comparative perspective is well advised to place greater focus on the market institutions that, to varying extents in different countries, act as complements to the state in the administration of social welfare.     

Rent seeking and the North-South terms of trade

In this paper results are reported for a series of counterfactual experiments with an eight- region numerical general equilibrium model of world trade, production, and welfare. In these analyses trade restrictions in the developing world are modeled as quantity constrained import licensing, which generates competitive rent-seeking behavior. Model experiments concentrate on the implications of differential factor endowment growth for the North-South terms of trade, and the effects of alternative trade policy changes in developing countries.     

The effects of social and political openness on the welfare state in 18 OECD countries

Studies examining the relationship between globalisation and the welfare state tend to focus on the effects of economic dimensions of globalisation, the extent to which a country is part of the world market. Globalisation also has social and political dimensions and the effects of these on welfare states – in terms of social security transfers and generosity – are studied in this article. Data from the KOF Index of Globalisation , the OECD Historical Statistics and the Comparative Welfare Entitlements Dataset are used to analyse the effects of social and political openness on the welfare states of 18 countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development between 1970 and 2000. The analyses show that social security transfers and generosity have increased less in countries with the highest increase in social openness and that the welfare state is not affected by political openness.     

The benefits to Caribbean Basin countries from the U.S. CBI tariff eliminations

The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act eliminates U.S. tariffs on many exports of countries in the Caribbean Sea and Central America. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these tariff eliminations on the export earnings and economic welfare of the beneficiary countries. It is found that the tariff eliminations increase annual export earnings of beneficiaries by at most $81 million and provide annual welfare gains to these countries of $15 million to $24 million. The benefits are concentrated in agricultural products (particularly sugar, beef, and tobacco) and in products assembled from U.S. components for export to the United States (particularly electronic equipment). The countries that benefit most are the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Guatemala.     

An evaluation of the Tokyo Round trade agreement using general equilibrium computational methods

An empirically based general equilibrium model involving the United States, Japan, the (nine-member) EEC, and a residual rest of the world is used to evaluate the Tokyo Round trade agreement negotiated under the GATT. Equilibria for post-Agreement policy regimes are computed and compared to a pre-Agreement equilibrium. Results indicate small aggregate welfare impacts but more significant terms of trade effects. Losses seem likely for Third World countries due to an adverse terms of trade change. Under some assumptions the changes in NTB codes produce more significant effects than the tariff cuts in the Agreement.     

Effects of export diversification in a primary commodity export country: Colombia

This article examines the income and allocation effects of an appropriate export diversification policy by means of a computable general equilibrium model for Colombia. This kind of policy is often envisaged to reduce the dependence of developing countries on primary commodity exports, which are considered to be a source of economic instability. The results show that an appropriate diversification of exports has positive income effects in Colombia.     

Protectionism: An analysis from project LINK

The LINK system of world trade is used to examine present tendencies toward protectionism. In protectionist scenarios we increase the prices of manufactured imports into 13 LINK-OECD countries by 5, 10, and 20 percent respectively, for 1978–1979. If a country's import equations do not depend significantly on relative price, we impose corresponding quantitative import restrictions of 5, 10, and 20 percent. Smaller OECD countries, developing countries, and socialist countries are assumed to be nonprotectionist in these scenarios. The discrepancies between the values of leading variables in the protectionist scenarios and in a baseline case show the effects of the different degrees of protectionism assumed. The results describe and validate Adam Smith's principles of the gains from free trade.     

A computational general equilibrium approach to the shadow pricing of trade restrictions and the adjustment of the exchange rate, with an application to Argentina

A general equilibrium model of an open economy in which there are ad valorem texes on domestic production and export activities, and import activities are subject to both tariffs and quotas is constructed. A domestic monetary asset, foreign exchange, and a corresponding nominal exchange rate are introduced and a numerical example of the model is constructed. The example is solved via the Scarf fixed point algorithm, first with taut quotas and then after having relaxed quotas. Various price indices are then used to guide programs designed to stabilize the trade balance against the quota liberalization. An empirical example, using Argentine data, is carried out to find the quota equivalent of a particular tariff.     

Must high commodity prices depress the world economy? An application of a world model system

The impact of higher primary commodity prices on the world economy is central to the North-South dialogue. The less developed countries are seeking a way to obtain a larger share of world income. In the context of current discussions of commodity price stabilization, UNCTAD's “integrated programme” for example, this is likely to mean higher commodity prices. A critical question is then, “Must higher prices for primary commodities depress the industrial economies?”The cyclical swing of 1973–1975 would seem to support the thesis that high primary commodity prices lead to recession in the industrial countries. Yet this experience is not conclusive evidence. Many complex forces, some natural and others policy induced, accounted for the recession. The impact of primary commodity prices must be considered in a full system, recognizing not only the direct costs, but also the resulting demand feedback. Under different circumstances, higher payments to the commodity producing LDCs may well increase demand for manufactures and stimulate exports and industrial activity in the developed countries.This paper uses a version of the LINK world model system to examine the linkages between commodity prices and world economic activity. In the first part we examine the demand feedback in a simple theoretical model of the interrelationships between commodity consumer countries and the commodity producers. In the second part we use an empirical system, COMLINK, the version of the LINK system that incorporates commodity models and commodity price linkages, to simulate various types of commodity price impacts.     

An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

A model of price and quantity adjustments in primary commodity markets

This paper presents a dynamic, simultaneous model of price and quantity adjustments in world primary commodity markets. The model is formulated in a disequilibrium framework, emphasizing particularly the role of price adjustment. In addition to the price equation, commodity consumption and production equations are also specified. The empirical analysis of the model is carried out with the annual data of six primary commodities: coffee, cocoa, rubber, copper, tin, and sugar. This includes the estimation of price, consumption, production equations, the simulation tests of complete structural models for these six commodities, and the derivation of dynamic responses (measured by elasticities) of commodity prices to changes in world income, world inflation, and commodity outputs. Dynamic simulations strongly confirm the commonly observed self-generating and recurring boom-and-bust cycles of primary commodity prices. This finding lends credibility to the models constructed.     

Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies

We use Asian International Input–Output Tables 1995 in measuring trade dependencies of 10 Pacific Rim economies within a regional general equilibrium model. We develop two sets of metrics in measuring the trade dependencies of the economies. First, we use final demand elasticity of exports in measuring the sensitivities of the economies in the model to autonomous changes in the final demand in any other economy in the region. Second, we use a final-demand-weighted index of export elasticities that are induced by variations in the final demand vector of any economy in the model as indicators of the strength of the shocks transmitted across countries.The estimated coefficients have important policy implications. First, these coefficients identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economies in terms of the export/import dependency. Second, these coefficients may be readily used in bilateral and regional trade negotiations. Using these coefficients, policy makers can provide mutual trade concessions in dampening the effects of real and financial shocks transmitted from the trading partners.     

Technology Spillovers in the Multinational Outsourcing System and Technological Innovation in Recipient Countries

Unlike technology spillovers from FDI or international trade, which operate through a single channel, technology spillovers from multinational outsourcing operate through the combined effect of multiple channels including import spillovers, export spillovers and pure knowledge spillovers. On the basis of the knowledge production function approach, this paper constructs an international R&D spillover regression equation to test the effect of different technology spillover channels on technological innovation in China’s manufacturing industry. Research shows that import spillovers are the only channel to have a significant effect, and this varies from industry to industry. Its significance is low in high- tech industry and medium-high in mid-tech and low-tech industries. Empirical findings indicate that China’s local enterprises are unlikely to achieve technological innovation via “learning from importing” or “learning from communication.”     

Class, Attitudes and the Welfare State: Sweden in Comparative Perspective

One of the most important arenas for contemporary class politics is the welfare state. In this article, attitudes towards welfare policies among different classes in Sweden are compared with other Western countries and over time. In the first part of the article, attitudes towards state intervention among different classes are compared across four Western countries: Sweden, Germany, Britain and the USA. The data come from the 1996 survey on “The Role of Government” conducted within the International Social Survey Programme. In the second part of the article, more detailed national data sets are used in order to track developments within Sweden from the early 1980s until 2002. Attitudes towards welfare spending, financing of welfare policies and service delivery are used to track developments of class differences in attitudes over time. It is concluded (a) that class differences are particularly large in Sweden, and (b) that changes over time indicate stability in overall class differences, combined with changes in attitudes among non‐manual employees. The implications of the results for recent arguments about the restructuring of class relations and the impact of welfare policies on stratification are discussed.     

中国对俄直接投资对中俄贸易的影响

中国对俄直接投资的迅速发展必然会对中俄贸易产生一定的影响.为深入分析中国对俄直接投资的贸易效应,采用面板数据模型,对中国对俄直接投资与进出口之间的关系进行实证研究,并将俄罗斯与中国其他主要投资东道国的情况进行比较分析.结果表明:中国对俄直接投资具有显著的出口创造效应与进口创造效应,且出口创造效应高于进口创造效应;与其他主要投资东道国相比,中国对俄直接投资对出口的促进作用较强,而对进口的促进作用较弱.     

Technology Spillovers in the Multinational Outsourcing System and Technological Innovation in Recipient Countries

跨国外包并不像FDI或国际贸易通过单一路径发生技术溢出,而是通过进口溢出、出口溢出和纯知识溢出等多条路径共同作用。基于知识生产函数方法建立国际R＆D溢出回归方程,分别检验跨国外包的各种技术溢出渠道对我国制造业技术创新的影响。研究发现,在跨国外包的三条技术溢出渠道中仅有进口溢出效应是显著的,并且存在较大的行业差异：高技术行业在低位点上显著,中等技术行业和低技术行业在中高位点处显著。实证结果说明了我国当地企业难以通过“出口中学习”、“交流中学习”实现技术创新。