基于RAM的我国财险公司效率与偿付能力关系研究

 保险公司有不同的利益主体,投资者和公司管理者关注的重点是公司效率,而投保人和监管机构关注的核心是保险公司的偿付能力,那么效率与偿付能力是否存在冲突,或者说,监管机构的偿付能力约束是否影响公司效率以及影响程度究竟如何,是业界和学术界关注的主要内容。本文从金融中介的视角,考虑不同利益主体,把偿付能力作为一产出指标,通过分析该指标的介入对效率的影响来研究偿付能力与效率之间的关系;在实证研究中,引入DEA的扩展模型—RAM,因为相对于DEA,RAM能更全面地反映保险公司的相对效率,所得到的效率值具有严格单调性,而且能处理指标出现负值的情况,这对于不多的样本特别具有吸引力;在检验不同类型保险公司的效率差异时,考虑到RAM方法得到的效率值是一个序数概念而不是绝对数量,本文采用Mann-Whitney秩和方法进行检验。     

中国财产保险公司的规模效率DEA实证研究

保险行业发展的质量与效率问题渐渐成为了大家关注的焦点。利用2003～2005年间中国财产保险行业发展的相关数据,运用数据包络分析（DEA）的相关数学模型,对中国各大财产保险公司规模效率进行实证研究,分析测度其规模效率,结果表明公司规模与规模效率间的关系不太明显,即规模很大的公司,规模效率并不一定就高;恰恰相反的是,规模效率较高的均为规模不大的保险公司。     

Improving communication via quantitative management

Villa Soft Drinks Ltd, established in 1884, manufactures and bottles spring waters and carbonates for both the growing adult soft drinks market and the more traditional soft drinks market. The company employs just over 100 people split between the manufacturing site in Sunderland and the head office and distribution centre in Washington. One of the fundamental problems affecting the day-to-day running of Villa, and most companies, is communication. There is a lack of awareness of the impact that changes in one department have on other departments (e.g. if production efficiency is increased by 10%, what impact will this have on warehousing?). Villa had recently identified key performance indicators (KPIs) to monitor all aspects of manufacturing performance on a regular basis. This enabled the current production situation to be evaluated and helped familiarize staff with charts and measurements. The use of Pareto analysis and problem solving techniques helped to boost efficiency and utilization. Key performance indicators were then developed in most other departments and are monitored and displayed regularly. The KPIs can be used further to improve transparency across the company by incorporating them in an interactive, interpretative tool to aid communication and understanding at all levels of the company. Individual departmental flow diagrams will be linked together to represent how the company operates. The diagrams will include both material flow and information flow. These data will then be organized in a software package and the end result will be a fully integrated simulation of the company in which any variable can be altered to demonstrate the effect this has on other departments and therefore the company as a whole. This will be an extremely valuable tool for the company as it will have many different applications, such as calculating manning requirements, identifying potential cycle time reductions and optimizing warehouse space.     

企业竞争力的综合测度

企业竞争力是企业求得自身生存与发展、战胜竞争对手的优势和能力。企业竞争力包括企业产品竞争力、企业技术开发和创新竞争力、企业市场营销竞争力、企业制度创新竞争力、企业管理创新竞争力、企业文化竞争力等六个方面。我们采用AHP法(层次分析法)综合测度A、B、C三个企业的竞争力并排序。     

Improving communication via quantitative management

Villa Soft Drinks Ltd, established in 1884, manufactures and bottles spring waters and carbonates for both the growing adult soft drinks market and the more traditional soft drinks market. The company employs just over 100 people split between the manufacturing site in Sunderland and the head office and distribution centre in Washington. One of the fundamental problems affecting the day-to-day running of Villa, and most companies, is communication. There is a lack of awareness of the impact that changes in one department have on other departments (e.g. if production efficiency is increased by 10%, what impact will this have on warehousing?). Villa had recently identified key performance indicators (KPIs) to monitor all aspects of manufacturing performance on a regular basis. This enabled the current production situation to be evaluated and helped familiarize staff with charts and measurements. The use of Pareto analysis and problem solving techniques helped to boost efficiency and utilization. Key performance indicators were then developed in most other departments and are monitored and displayed regularly. The KPIs can be used further to improve transparency across the company by incorporating them in an interactive, interpretative tool to aid communication and understanding at all levels of the company. Individual departmental flow diagrams will be linked together to represent how the company operates. The diagrams will include both material flow and information flow. These data will then be organized in a software package and the end result will be a fully integrated simulation of the company in which any variable can be altered to demonstrate the effect this has on other departments and therefore the company as a whole. This will be an extremely valuable tool for the company as it will have many different applications, such as calculating manning requirements, identifying potential cycle time reductions and optimizing warehouse space.     

寿险公司偿付能力的综合评价

偿付能力是衡量一个公司经济能力的综合指标，而偿付能力监管是保险监管的首要目标，也是保险公司风险管理的主要内容。依据中国保监会对寿险公司偿付能力监管的要求，选取了九个财务指标，运用主成分分析法对18家活跃在中国保险市场的寿险公司的偿付能力进行了综合评价，提出应当拓宽保险资金运用渠道，优化管理结构，引进优秀人才，改进偿付能力评估办法，从而有效地提高中国寿险公司偿付能力。     

Robust optimal investment and proportional reinsurance toward joint interests of the insurer and the reinsurer

In this article, we study a robust optimal investment and reinsurance problem for a general insurance company which holds shares of an insurance company and a reinsurance company. Assume that the claim process described by a Brownian motion with drift, the insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance, and both the insurer and the reinsurer can invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Besides, the general insurance company’s manager is an ambiguity-averse manager (AAM) who worries about model uncertainty in model parameters. The AAM’s objective is to maximize the minimal expected exponential utility of the weighted sum surplus process of the insurer and the reinsurer. By using techniques of stochastic control theory, we first derive the closed-form expressions of the optimal strategies and the corresponding value function, and then the verification theorem is given. Finally, we present numerical examples to illustrate the effects of model parameters on the optimal investment and reinsurance strategies, and analyze utility losses from ignoring model uncertainty.     

Optimal impulse control for dividend and capital injection with proportional reinsurance and exponential premium principle

This article supposes that a large insurance company can control its surplus process by reinsurance, paying dividends, or injecting capitals. The exponential premium principle and proportional reinsurance are adopted in business activities. We investigate the general situation that the company needs to pay both proportional and fixed costs for dividends and capital injections. The object of the company is to determine an optimal joint reinsurance–dividend–capital injection strategy for maximizing the expected present value of dividends less capital injections until the time of bankruptcy. In both cases of non cheap and cheap reinsurance, we obtain the explicit solutions for value function and optimal strategy.     

基于CEAS的投入产出账户对碳排放控制的研究

CEAS作为对抗环境质量退化的一个有效的管理工具,其建立的前提条件必须要有坚实的经济学理论基础,有充分的实证研究作为牵引,是传统会计体系向环境领域的拓展。作为CEAS核心内容的投入产出账户,是实物计量在公司日常经营活动中的应用,是在公司统计资料的基础上,通过计量和换算公司活动对环境的影响因素,为决策者提供控制碳排放的统计数据,实现对碳排放的有效控制。     

AN INVENTORY PROBLEM APPLIED TO A RENTAL SITUATION

An inventory problem, applied to a rental situation business, has been considered. If no item is in stock when a demand occurs, the company borrows the units from other concerns in the same line of business. The profit function has been calculated and it has been shown how the inventory level increases with penalty cost. A review of the literature on inventory control reveals that not much work has been done in holding inventories of rental items. In a recent paper, Tainiter (1964) considered the situation in which a company rents out items such as cars, trucks, farm equipment, books, furniture, etc., and obtained the profit function by taking “rental-out” time as a negative exponential and demand as a general random variable. The model is equally applicable to companies which rent out “service personnel”, repair men, taxi cabs, etc. “We consider a company renting out items to customers. The company starts its business by purchasing a total number of M items in the inventory. The term inventory, defined by Arrow, Earlin and Scarf (1958) as the stock of goods which is kept for future sale or production, is applicable here. Whenever a demand occurs the item is rented out immediately, if it is available in the stock. But if the inventory is zero, i.e. all the items are rented out, the demand will be satisfied by borrowing items from other companies which are dealing in the same line of business. For example, a manufacturer of refrigerators maintains and repairs his product at the customer's house after sale. If a complaint arrives when no repairmen are available, the company will “borrow” repairmen from elsewhere and will attend to the complaint immediately. The borrowing cost may be negative or positive, representing a penalty or a profit. On the other hand if the company does not borrow and the customer has to wait (and such situations occur very often) the loss of the customer's goodwill may occur. It is also not possible to keep large numbers of items because of the storage costs and tied up capital. The problem is then to devise an optimal policy such that the profits of the company are maximized.     

媒体报道、会计信息透明度与管理者在职消费行为关系研究

利用387家沪深A股上市公司2011至2014年的相关数据,基于回归分析,考察了媒体报道对上市公司管理者在职消费行为与会计信息透明度之间的调节作用。研究发现,管理者在职消费行为与会计信息透明度呈显著负相关,媒体报道能够抑制该负相关关系。同时,随着正面报道与负面报道的增加,管理者在职消费行为和会计信息透明度的负相关关系将会减弱,即正面报道与负面报道的外部监督效果显著。这说明媒体报道可以约束管理者在职消费行为,对提高中国上市公司的会计信息透明度起到非正式外部监督的作用。     

高科技企业融资结构比较分析

我国高科技企业存在融资难的问题,资金短缺已极大地限制了我国高科技企业的发展。本文根据对不同融资环境下的高科技上市公司与非上市公司的财务比率进行比较,分析其融资结构差异以及差异存在的原因,探讨高科技企业融资难的具体成因并提出改进的建议.     

和谐劳动关系评价指标体系的构建与应用——一种基于广义生态系统的新探索

基于广义生态系统新视角,审视并构建了一套和谐劳动关系评价指标体系,通过AHP方法推导了指标体系中各指标的权重,开展对GI、IBR、Oxbridge公司的典型案例研究,以验证指标体系的可行性。重视指标选择依据,客观考虑指标权重,精确指标定量化,有助于推动和谐劳动关系相关理论研究的深化,有助于准确评估不同类型企业的劳动关系现状,提高企业劳动关系的和谐度。     

Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing

Summary.  The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile.     

基于适度财务指标和遗传算法的财务危机预测模型研究

以往进行财务危机预测主要使用统计方法建模,迄今尚未见到因考虑财务指标的适度性而建立遗传算法模型的中外文献。适度财务指标是指该指标在某个区间内公司才是健康的,过大或过小则公司发生财务危机的可能性都较大。故以中国上市公司数据为样本,建立了基于适度财务指标和遗传算法的创新型财务危机预测模型,结果显示该类模型具有较高的预测准确率。     

扭亏上市公司盈余管理与公司治理的关系研究

针对目前上市公司盈余管理问题的日益凸显,利用2006-2009年度中国扭亏上市公司的可操纵性应计利润和满足要求的公司治理财务数据,给出假设并进行模型分析,实证分析结果发现独立董事比例、高管持股比例、机构投资者持股比例、国有股持股比例、融资结构比例对扭亏公司盈余管理存在一定程度的影响,但只有融资结构的影响是显著的.     

Dynamic risk control for project development

A statistical methodology for dynamic risk control is discussed. The research is aimed at constructing tools for the analysis of expert opinions within a company about the risks involved in the production of a new commercial product or service. Focus is on risk events and on the analysis of the expert assessments of probabilities, losses and correlations of such events. A rescoring loop of risk assessments and preventive actions taken by the company on the basis of these assessments is illustrated through an example on software development. Relevant literature on risk and subjective elicitations is reviewed.     

民营上市公司股权结构与关联交易实证分析

目前,有关上市公司大股东侵害中小股东的文献比较丰富,但缺乏对民营上市公司的研究。鉴此,以沪深市场2007—2008年度民营上市公司为研究对象,构建回归模型考察股权结构与关联交易之间的关系,其研究结果显示：民营上市公司第一大股东持股比例、控制链层级对关联交易规模产生显著正影响;制度环境的改善能抑制终极控制人因控制权与现金流权分离所引发的侵占动机;终极控制人为自然人时,对公司的侵害程度较小。     

证券公司失败预警研究

 内容提要：一系列国内外证券公司（投资银行）的失败危机表明,及早有效地对证券公司（投资银行）的失败进行预警极为重要。本文在借鉴国内外建立企业失败预警模型的理论和经验的基础上,以我国证券公司为研究对象,将证券公司财务失败界定为证券公司破产或被证券监管部门采取风险处置措施,选取了24家财务失败证券公司和24家财务健康证券公司为样本,有针对性地选取和设计了一系列指标,对比应用了Logit方法、Probit方法和判别分析方法,最终选用Logit方法成功建立了证券公司失败预警模型。     

An Interview with Mary Ann Liebert and Tom Mulak

Abstract

Ramune Kubilius interviewed Mary Ann Liebert, president and founder of the family-owned publishing company, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., and Tom Mulak, vice president of Liebert Online, in December 2002. In this interview, Liebert responds to questions about her motivations for founding a publishing company, what she feels makes it unique in the current publishing industry, and its past, present, and potential future directions in journal publishing. Liebert and Mulak expressed opinions on the company's e-journal strategies and the company's relationship with editors and institutional subscribers. Serials Review 2003; 29:137–143.