Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm

Different people may use different strategies, or decision rules, when solving complex decision problems. We provide a new Bayesian procedure for drawing inferences about the nature and number of decision rules present in a population, and use it to analyze the behaviors of laboratory subjects confronted with a difficult dynamic stochastic decision problem. Subjects practiced before playing for money. Based on money round decisions, our procedure classifies subjects into three types, which we label “Near Rational,”“Fatalist,” and “Confused.” There is clear evidence of continuity in subjects' behaviors between the practice and money rounds: types who performed best in practice also tended to perform best when playing for money. However, the agreement between practice and money play is far from perfect. The divergences appear to be well explained by a combination of type switching (due to learning and/or increased effort in money play) and errors in our probabilistic type assignments.     

Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository

A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for a high-level radioactive waste repository is very important since it gives an estimate of its health impacts, allowing comparisons to be made with the health impacts of competing technologies. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a credible PRA for a specific repository site because of large uncertainties in future climate, hydrology, geological processes, etc. At best, such a PRA would not be understandable to the public. An alternative proposed here is to develop a PRA for an average U.S. site, taking all properties of the site to be the U.S. average. The results are equivalent to the average results for numerous randomly selected sites. Such a PRA is presented here; it is easy to understand, and it is not susceptible to substantial uncertainty. Applying the results to a specific repository site then requires only a simple, intuitively acceptable "leap of faith" in assuming that with large expenditures of effort and money, experts can select a site that would be at least as secure as a randomly selected site.     

2009年上半年货币过多投放会导致2010年通货膨胀吗?

2009年以来,我国货币供应量增幅快速回升,银行大规模进行信贷投放,这不仅使得市场流动性显著增强,而且也为未来通胀预期增加了不确定性。本文利用1997-2009年CPI环比、货币供应量增量及人民币贷款增量三个指标月度数据构建向量自回归模型,分析结果显示:(1)通货膨胀对自身冲击影响最为敏感;(2)短期内货币供应量对通货膨胀影响并不明显,但较长期内(一般为7个月)货币供应量增量的变化对通货膨胀产生重大影响;(3)贷款对通货膨胀的作用较小,我国通货膨胀对金融机构贷款变动并不敏感;(4)2010年物价水平将逐步上升,但不会出现较高通货膨胀。     

Putting Behavioral Economics to Work: Testing for Gift Exchange in Labor Markets Using Field Experiments

Recent discoveries in behavioral economics have led scholars to question the underpinnings of neoclassical economics. We use insights gained from one of the most influential lines of behavioral research—gift exchange—in an attempt to maximize worker effort in two quite distinct tasks: data entry for a university library and door‐to‐door fundraising for a research center. In support of the received literature, our field evidence suggests that worker effort in the first few hours on the job is considerably higher in the “gift” treatment than in the “nongift” treatment. After the initial few hours, however, no difference in outcomes is observed, and overall the gift treatment yielded inferior aggregate outcomes for the employer: with the same budget we would have logged more data for our library and raised more money for our research center by using the market‐clearing wage rather than by trying to induce greater effort with a gift of higher wages.     

考虑消费者退货的制造商入侵策略研究

在考虑消费者退货的情形下，通过构建包括一个制造商、一个零售商和消费者的二级供应链模型，研究了订货量决策以及制造商开通直销渠道的问题。分析提供退款保证和决策顺序对均衡结果以及制造商开通直销渠道的影响。研究发现：在单一渠道供应链中，提供退款保证提高销量，制造商和零售商利润以及消费者剩余；在不提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度递增；在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度先递减后递增；当直销渠道的成本较高时，制造商将不开通直销渠道；提供退款保证有利于制造商开通直销渠道。在双渠道供应链中：在顺序决策情形下，直销量随零售满意度递增，然而在同时决策情形下，直销量却随零售满意度递减；提供退款保证虽然降低零售商利润但能够提高消费者剩余，零售商利润随直销成本递增，在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和总利润随直销成本先递减后递增；当零售满意度较高，且直销成本也较高时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商“双输”，当零售满意度较高，但直销成本较低时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商达到(win-lose)。     

Human resource development in a challenging financial environment: the case of a Greek bank

Changes in the external environment have reshaped the banking industry environment. Responding to that, Greek banks are adopting new strategies towards organizational development and realize that success requires adjustments to their HRD effort. The case example presented here refers to a leading Greek bank that was involved in a systematic HRD effort, based on the use of training interventions as a short-term solution to transit smoothly to the new era. The results of this effort are connected to the improvement of the bank's position in the market, despite its problematic past. However, the next challenge for the bank is to realize that the formation of a long-term development strategy and its integration with wider HR management policies are a priority.     

Safety culture: under-specified and overrated?

Is the measurement of 'safety culture' a valid management tool in the effort to reduce accident rate and improve safety performance, or is it a fuzzy academic concept, lacking empirical validation? The answer to this question seems to depend on whom one asks. The UK Health and Safety Commission has encouraged companies to improve their safety performance through the development of a 'positive safety culture'. However, academic discussions in this area suggest that the concept remains vague, lacks empirical validation and is used as an 'umbrella term' for all the social and organizational factors that affect accident rate. This paper reviews the existing literature on safety culture and provides some clarification in terms of definition, empirical evidence and theoretical development. A theoretical framework of the mechanisms by which safety culture affects safety behaviours in organizations is proposed. The implications for practical management issues are discussed and future challenges and areas for further research are identified.     

Safety culture: under-specified and overrated?

Is the measurement of ‘safety culture’ a valid management tool in the effort to reduce accident rate and improve safety performance, or is it a fuzzy academic concept, lacking empirical validation? The answer to this question seems to depend on whom one asks. The UK Health and Safety Commission has encouraged companies to improve their safety performance through the development of a ‘positive safety culture’. However, academic discussions in this area suggest that the concept remains vague, lacks empirical validation and is used as an ‘umbrella term’ for all the social and organizational factors that affect accident rate. This paper reviews the existing literature on safety culture and provides some clarification in terms of definition, empirical evidence and theoretical development. A theoretical framework of the mechanisms by which safety culture affects safety behaviours in organizations is proposed. The implications for practical management issues are discussed and future challenges and areas for further research are identified.     

金钱概念对自我提升产品偏好的影响研究

随着社会物质水平的提高,很多人未必真正拥有财富,但经常暴露于金钱的刺激之下,容易形成金钱概念,会产生拥有金钱财富的效果,根据成就动机理论和市场定价模式,启动金钱概念的消费者倾向选择有利于自我发展的消费选项。 以中国高校学生作为研究样本,采用实验方法,设计3个实验,借助SPSS软件对实验数据进行方差分析,探讨金钱概念对消费者自我提升偏好的积极影响,并进一步探讨成就动机的中介作用和购买目标的调节作用。 实验1选择一种有助睡眠的口服溶片作为实验材料,采用提升类型(自我提升vs.非自我提升)×金钱概念的2×1组间实验,结果变量为支付水平,验证金钱概念对消费者自我提升偏好的积极影响。结果表明,相对于非自我提升类型,金钱概念的消费者对自我提升类型的支付水平更高。 实验2选择维他命水饮料作为实验材料,采用单因素组间实验设计(金钱概念组vs.控制组),结果变量为自我提升类型和非自我提升类型的对比选择,验证金钱概念通过成就动机影响自我提升偏好。结果表明,金钱概念诱发成就动机,进而积极影响消费者对自我提升类型的偏好。 实验3选择棋牌游戏作为实验材料,采用金钱概念(有vs.无)×购买目标(他人vs.自己)×提升类型(自我提升vs.非自我提升)的2×2×2组间组内设计,金钱概念和购买目标为组间设计,提升类型为组内设计,结果变量为支付意愿,检验在不同购买目标情况下,金钱概念对消费者自我提升偏好的影响。结果表明,金钱概念对自我提升偏好的影响只局限在购买目标为自己的情况下,在为他人购买时,金钱概念对自我提升偏好的影响不显著。 研究结论有利于丰富金钱概念研究,拓展金钱概念在消费领域的研究内容;有利于营销者掌握金钱概念对消费者购买决策的影响机理,深入了解消费者的购买心理,制定相应的品牌和产品管理措施,提升自我发展相关产品的销售;有利于人们树立正确的金钱观和消费观,管理好金钱财富,理性地对待金钱。     

Trust, confidence, procedural fairness, outcome fairness, moral conviction, and the acceptance of GM field experiments

In 2005, Swiss citizens endorsed a moratorium on gene technology, resulting in the prohibition of the commercial cultivation of genetically modified crops and the growth of genetically modified animals until 2013. However, scientific research was not affected by this moratorium, and in 2008, GMO field experiments were conducted that allowed us to examine the factors that influence their acceptance by the public. In this study, trust and confidence items were analyzed using principal component analysis. The analysis revealed the following three factors: "economy/health and environment" (value similarity based trust), "trust and honesty of industry and scientists" (value similarity based trust), and "competence" (confidence). The results of a regression analysis showed that all the three factors significantly influenced the acceptance of GM field experiments. Furthermore, risk communication scholars have suggested that fairness also plays an important role in the acceptance of environmental hazards. We, therefore, included measures for outcome fairness and procedural fairness in our model. However, the impact of fairness may be moderated by moral conviction. That is, fairness may be significant for people for whom GMO is not an important issue, but not for people for whom GMO is an important issue. The regression analysis showed that, in addition to the trust and confidence factors, moral conviction, outcome fairness, and procedural fairness were significant predictors. The results suggest that the influence of procedural fairness is even stronger for persons having high moral convictions compared with persons having low moral convictions.     

村级债务的成因与危害──湖北J市调查

当前的乡村治理中,村级债务已成为最大难题。颇具讽刺意味的是,造成村级债务这一难题的原因,正是为了解决乡村治理中的难题。村级债务是刃９９０年代以来的新现象。１９９０年代初期,针对乡村组织普遍存在软弱涣散的问题,上上下下都期待发展乡村集体经济,增强集体经济实力,从而增加乡村组织的凝聚力和战斗力。这个时期,以兴办村办企业、调整产业结构为名,乡村两级大量借贷,形成了当前村级债务的第一个“基础”;自１９９２年以来,在“再苦不能苦孩子、再穷不能穷教育”的口号声中,“普九”达标不分地区不切实际地在全．国铺开,…     

Quality circle failures in UK manufacturing companies—A study

This paper presents the results of a study of quality circle failures in UK manufacturing companies. A questionnaire survey formed the first part of the investigation, which reveals that the majority of companies which implement quality circles should expect to encounter some form of failure. The first three years of operating a quality circle programme represent the critical period for establishing long-term survival of the programme, whilst in the case of individual circles it is the first 18 months. The results indicate that white collar circles are more difficult to sustain over time than are circles in blue collar areas. The main reasons for circle failure include: rejection of the concept by top management and trade unions; the company restructuring, redundancies and labour turnover; circle leaders lacking time to organise meetings and a lack of co-operation from middle and first-line management. It is pointed out, that despite an average circle failure rate of 20%, there is a high level of satisfaction with quality circles amongst the respondents.     

Leadership in organisations: Meta,macro and micro

The study of leadership suffers from too many definitions, not too few. Much of this confusion springs from the fact that there are two fundamentally different perspectives on leadership. From these arise three common usages of the word. This article suggests that we recognise this diversity and abandon the search for a unique definition.The first perspective views leadership as “influence on individuals” without using power or authority. This “meta” leadership relates individuals to their environment through “visioning” — a complex interaction of perception, articulation, conviction and empathy (PACE).The second perspective views leadership as the “shaking and moving” of an organisation to face the future, cope with change and achieve results. It includes both the creation of a successful organisation, through “macro” leadership, and the accomplishment of specific jobs or tasks, through “micro” leadership.These three types of leadership — meta, macro and micro — are examined from the two perspectives. It is suggested that all three should be exercised by managers at all levels - no matter how junior.     

考虑双重努力因素的制造商和零售商投资机制设计

以往研究主要集中在制造商的质量提高和零售商的销售努力投资。而本文在需求依赖于质量努力和销售努力的前提下,制造商和零售商遵循Stackelberg博弈情形,研究不同供应链成员承担质量努力和销售努力成本对产品定价和利润的影响。商业实践表明,制造商和零售商都有动机对质量努力和销售努力进行投资,由此制定三种投资决策模式：制造商和零售商分别投资、仅制造商投资和仅零售商投资质量努力和销售努力。研究结果表明,零售价格、订购量、质量努力和销售努力水平均随着质量和销售努力成本的增大而递减;制造商更愿意让零售商投资质量努力和销售努力,而零售商可能不愿意让制造商进行投资;在零售商独立投资的情形下,供应链成员的利润以及质量努力和销售努力水平大于其他情形。     

Human relations in industry

In developed societies, good human relations become of crucial importance as people demand treatment as individuals. However, many in management positions pay only lip service to the implications of this need. The main reasons for this are that good human relations are very expensive in terms of both money and management effort and require fundamental revision of many inherited attitudes. They require appropriate organizational provision, good working conditions and amenities together with broad-ranging welfare facilities. Perhaps more important than these, however, are the intangible factors of caring and involvement by management and workers. Such principles have reached a high and successful stage of development in the author's company. Examples from several companies highlight the value of such hygiene conditions in diminishing disputes and facilitating essential change.Leadership is crucial both in management and trades unions but effective leadership is only possible against a background of good human relations.     

通货紧缩、资产膨胀与货币政策——兼论当前中国的货币总量和货币结构问题

本文首先描述了中国通货紧缩与资产膨胀并存的金融怪现象,这是与传统理论相悖的;然后通过引入以资本市场为代表的虚拟经济部门将传统的货币数量论拓展为三部门的广义货币数量论,在新的模型框架下侧重从货币政策角度分析了通货紧缩与资产膨胀并存的生成机理。我们的分析表明:“中国悖论”是货币总量理论在偏松情况下货币结构严重失衡的产物,是货币结构失衡大于货币总量失衡的结果。优化货币结构是解决“中国悖论”的关键所在,中国货币政策应更多关注货币结构而不仅仅是货币总量问题。     

Changing values and lifestyles

It has been apparent for several years that changes in people's values in the United States, have been occurring more frequently and having greater impact than has previously been experienced. The most significant impacts appear to be coming from people whose values and lifestyles are considerably less materialistic than traditional American values.Work at SRI, spanning more than a decade, had identified a new and rapidly growing group of people, the ‘inner directeds’; while more traditional groups—‘outer directeds’ and ‘money restricted’—have been declining as percentages of the population. These three major groups and their subdivisions are described in the article and particular emphasis is given to the inner directed group since it is likely to have the greatest impact on business, the market and government.     

中国货币政策对美国的溢出效应研究——基于两国开放经济DSGE模型的分析

本文构建两国开放经济新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,模型包括家庭、厂商、货币当局三个部门,采用贝叶斯估计方法对模型的动态参数进行估计,货币当局采用两种货币规则,一种是利率规则,另一种是货币供应量规则,分别在两种货币规则的情况下,实证分析中国货币政策对美国的溢出效应,结果表明,两种货币规则下的中国货币政策对美国经济变量的溢出方向都是相同的,但是在溢出大小方面还是有差异的,中国货币供应量增加导致的利率下降对美国利率的溢出明显大于在利率直接下调情况下对美国利率的溢出;中国货币供应量政策平滑性明显不如中国利率政策,中国在利率规则下对通货膨胀、产出、汇率的关注程度远远超过在货币供应量规则下的关注程度。因此,从中国货币政策的国内目标以及国际货币政策协调角度而言,泰勒规则比较适合中国当前的经济状况,能够在实现稳定物价和经济增长国内目标的同时,降低对美国宏观经济变量的冲击。     

Daily recovery from work: The role of activities,effort and pleasure

Abstract

Knowledge of the cycle of work and recovery is crucial for protecting employee health and well-being and preserving working capabilities. However, the daily process of effort and recovery is not well understood. This study investigated how the time spent on activities in the work and off-job domains, and the pleasure and effort experienced while engaging in these activities, affect the daily recovery process. We expected higher levels of effort at work and during off-job time to be negatively related to recovery, and higher levels of pleasure at work and during off-job time to be positively related to recovery. We also hypothesized that pleasure would act as a buffer against the negative effects of effort. Data were collected by means of a five-day diary study (three measurements daily, before and immediately after work, and at bedtime) among 120 university academic staff. Fatigue and (low) vigour were used as indicators of (lack of) recovery. Multilevel analyses showed that pleasure in the work and off-job domains had beneficial effects on recovery. An adverse association between effort expenditure and recovery was lacking. However, in the work domain, a combination of unpleasant and effortful work activities was negatively related to recovery. These findings stress the importance of engaging in pleasant activities during work and off-job time.     

Strategic vision or strategic con?: Rhetoric or reality?

Major companies devote considerable effort to communicating corporate visions and missions. Yet three recent surveys suggest that much of this effort has been counter-productive. A gap has emerged between rhetoric and reality. Arenas of confrontation have arisen between directors and managers, head offices and business units, holding companies and their subsidiaries, and between specialists and generalists. A widespread desire for corporate transformation is not matched by understanding of how to bring it about. The lack of top management commitment and of communication skills are major barriers to change. More competent directors and more effective boards are needed. The article suggests key roles for the chairman and the chief executive. It examines how best to share a compelling vision, and identifies a requirement for new attitudes and approaches to communication.