Decision theory with prospect interference and entanglement

We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision making of real human beings. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage’s sure-thing principle, known as the disjunction effect, can be explained quantitatively as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The disjunction effects, observed in experiments, are accurately predicted using a theorem on interference alternation that we derive, which connects aversion-to-uncertainty to the appearance of negative interference terms suppressing the probability of actions. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. A series of experiments are analyzed and shown to be in excellent agreement with a priori evaluation of interference effects. The conjunction fallacy is also shown to be a sufficient condition for the disjunction effect, and novel experiments testing the combined interplay between the two effects are suggested.     

A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games

The “gambler's fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability is objectively known to be independent across trials. Clotfelter and Cook (1991, 1993) find evidence of the gambler's fallacy in analysis of data from the Maryland lottery's“Pick 3” numbers game. In the Maryland lottery, the payout to all numbers is equal at $250 on a winning fifty-cent bet, so the gambler's fallacy betting strategy costs bettors nothing. This article looks at the importance of the gambler's fallacy in the New Jersey lottery's three-digit numbers game, a pari-mutuel game where a lower amount of total wagering on a number increases the payout to that number. Results indicate that the gambler's fallacy exists among bettors in New Jersey, although to a lesser extent than among those in Maryland.     

Biases in Assessments of Probabilities: New Evidence from Greyhound Races

This paper investigates biases in the perceptions of probabilities using data from the 1989 and 1994 seasons at the Woodlands greyhound park in Kansas City, Kansas. Results reveal consistent evidence that the gambler's fallacy exists. The results also reveal that gamblers overestimate the probability of a win by the favorite and the dog in the lucky seven position. However, the comparison also suggests some learning by bettors between the first season of operation in 1989 and the 1994 season.     

Under Pressure: Individual Differences in Children's Suggestibility in Response to Intense Social Influence

Prior research on the relation between children's suggestibility and verbal skills has yielded mixed results. This study examined children's suggestibility in a high social pressure context in conjunction with individual differences in verbal ability and social understanding. Sixty‐nine children were read a story by a classroom visitor. One week later children were asked suggestive questions about the visit and pressured to respond ‘yes’. One week after the first interview, children were re‐asked the same questions, this time with no pressure. Children's suggestibility in response to social pressure was found to be significantly and negatively correlated with receptive vocabulary knowledge, but not with social understanding, the ability to understand and interpret social interactions. In addition, suggestibility scores exhibited a distinctly bimodal distribution, with many children acquiescing to all pressured suggestions, many children acquiescing to no suggestions, and few children falling between these two extremes.     

Learning Experiences of Older Volunteers in a Community-based Social Program for People with Dementia

Abstract

This qualitative study aimed to explore older adults’ perspectives on volunteering in an activity-based social program for community-dwelling people with dementia called Stepping Stones. Semi-structured interviews were individually conducted with eight older adults who had volunteered in Stepping Stones. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used to analyze interview data. Four themes related to learning experiences of older volunteers in Stepping Stones emerged. These themes include (a) self-growth and confidence in working with people with dementia; (b) understanding dementia, people with dementia, and needed support for people with dementia and their families; (c) desire not to develop dementia, while recognizing that anything can happen in old age; and (d) exercising person-centered approaches and taking on advocacy roles. Findings suggest that older volunteers gain feelings of personal growth and confidence in working with people with dementia, better understanding, and enhanced attitudes toward people with dementia through volunteering in an activity-based social program for people with dementia. Older adults will be able to fill the needs of community programs for people with dementia, while experiencing benefits from volunteering and learning in later life. Further research is needed to examine to what extent having previous dementia experiences make their experiences and learning different.     

Community in a children's home

In this paper the focus is on ‘the community’ of a children's home and what it looks like from the children's point of view. The research data consist of ethnographic research material produced in conjunction with a doctoral thesis in 1996. The community was analysed in respect to four features: periodic adult relationships, alliance creation, importance of peers relationships and continuous negotiations, where children take active roles. In addition to periodic employees, the community of a children's home includes different relationships between peers and adults. The significance of the community is individually experienced. According to the field research, a children's home can offer home‐like experiences for some children and give a feeling of belonging, while there are also children for whom a sense of belonging is more complex. There is a need for a community approach in child protection and child welfare research. The studies of children's friendship and other human relationships provide adults and professionals with an understanding of the role of these relationships in the children's life and future. The studies also yield information on how these personal relationships are interpreted by young people.     

The Use of Base Rate Information as a Function of Experienced Consistency

Three experiments examine the effect of base rate consistency under direct experience. Base rate consistency was manipulated by blocking trials and setting base rate choice reinforcement to be either consistent or inconsistent across trial blocks. Experiment 1 shows that, contrary to the usual finding, participants use base rate information more than individuating information when it is consistent, but less when it is inconsistent. In Experiment 2, this effect was replicated, and transferred in verbal questions posed subsequently. Despite experience with consistent base rates increasing sensitivity to base rates in word problems, verbal responses were far from normative. In Experiment 3, participants’ use of base rates was once again moderated by its consistency, but this effect was itself moderated by the diagnosticity of base rate information. Participants were highly accurate in estimating experienced base rates. These studies demonstrate that base rate usage is complex and a function of how base rates are presented (experienced versus summary statistics) and response format (choice proportions versus probability estimates). Knowledge of base rates was insufficient for proper usage in verbal word problems. Although choice proportions showed a sophisticated sensitivity to experienced base rate information, participants seemed unable to demonstrate a similar sophistication when given typical word problems indicating that base rate neglect is a function of information representation and not an inherent processing bias.     

Making Low Probabilities Useful

This paper explores how people process information on low probability-high consequence negative events and what it will take to get individuals to be sensitive to the likelihood of these types of accidents or disasters. In a set of experiments, information is presented to individuals on the likelihood of serious accidents from a chemical facility. Comparisons are made with other risks, such as fatalities from automobile accidents, to see whether laypersons can determine the relative safety of different plants. We conclude that fairly rich context information must be available for people to be able to judge differences between low probabilities. In particular, it appears that one needs to present comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale to evoke people's own feelings of risk. The concept of evaluability recently introduced by Hsee and his colleagues provides a useful explanation of these findings.     

Mothers’ communicative cues and the development of infants’ helping: Linking participation and problem solving in the first year of life

There is an ongoing debate on the role of socialization in the development of infants’ helping. Although opportunities for the socialization of early helping are rare in problem solving (bystander intervention), there are many opportunities for socialization in participation (working alongside others), and infants’ experiences of participation could socialize problem solving indirectly. The present study links participation and problem solving conceptually by drawing on a Hebbian concept of indirect learning and through a study examining mothers’ communicative cues in both forms of helping. Forty mother-infant dyads engaged in two semi-structured helping tasks, a participation task and a problem-solving task at five, eight, and ten months of age. Mothers’ communicative cues and infants’ return of the object were examined using coding schemes adapted from prior research. Mothers used similar communicative cues (reaches, give-me gestures, and verbal requests) in both tasks, and more maternal scaffolding contributed to greater object handover. Infants showed higher object handover in participation tasks. The findings, framed in Tomasello's neo-Vygotskian account of prosocial development, offer a synthesis of the debate on the role of socialization where prosocial behavior emerges first between people, and then becomes individualized.     

Transnational Fundraising in a Good Cause: A North–South European Example

This paper documents the experience of a one-time famous, longstanding, charismatically led and transnationally funded welfare project in Naples, Italy. It details the manner of the project's original funding success and reviews the implications of its subsequent shift from child rescue to community development, in conjunction with its founder's decision to resign from the priesthood. It comments on the project's funding fortunes thereafter, up until its founder's retirement, and argues that, whilst the activities of the project advanced from what might be termed first-generation (humanitarian relief) to second-generation (community development), its styles of management and fundraising remained essentially unchanged. The paper comments on the project's qualities of charismatic leadership in conjunction with "friendship style" fundraising, and suggests ways in which its life might have been prolonged with less upheaval, beyond the first generation. This account could furnish useful learning material for other, later North–South NGO projects.     

从“虽”的词性看古汉语介词和连词的区分

介词和名词组成介词结构，基本功能是引介，连词的基本功能是连接。对连词和介词所作的区分主要考虑的是语义关系。介词和连词的区别并不总是那样清晰，学界纷纷提出“关系词”、“连介词”等概念，甚至有人主张完全合并介词和连词。古汉语中关系词“虽”在发展过程中经历了一个语法化过程，从“连介词”完全变成了连词。     

Teaching and Learning Responsible Research Conduct: Influences of Prior Experiences on Acceptance of New Ideas

Despite requirements for Responsible Conduct of Research (RCR) training, little is known about how much this training actually influences the thinking and behaviors of participants. Interview-based qualitative research methods were used to study the reactions of Ph.D. students and postdoctoral fellows to what was taught in an RCR course. For trainees with limited prior RCR experience, or who agreed with what was taught, it was relatively easy to influence their attitudes and how they thought they would use the new information in the future. However, if their prior experiences or existing knowledge conflicted with what was taught they resisted and often rejected new ideas that were presented. Interviews also revealed the tremendously complex process trainees must undergo trying to resolve or integrate all of the different perspectives they receive on RCR from other sources. These results revealed the importance of viewing RCR training from the perspective of learning theory and how prior knowledge influences what people learn. The results also support the need for periodic rather than one-time RCR training to counter the often conflicting views and practices young scientists experience in real-life research settings.     

Teaching and learning responsible research conduct: influences of prior experiences on acceptance of new ideas

Despite requirements for Responsible Conduct of Research (RCR) training, little is known about how much this training actually influences the thinking and behaviors of participants. Interview-based qualitative research methods were used to study the reactions of Ph.D. students and postdoctoral fellows to what was taught in an RCR course. For trainees with limited prior RCR experience, or who agreed with what was taught, it was relatively easy to influence their attitudes and how they thought they would use the new information in the future. However, if their prior experiences or existing knowledge conflicted with what was taught they resisted and often rejected new ideas that were presented. Interviews also revealed the tremendously complex process trainees must undergo trying to resolve or integrate all of the different perspectives they receive on RCR from other sources. These results revealed the importance of viewing RCR training from the perspective of learning theory and how prior knowledge influences what people learn. The results also support the need for periodic rather than one-time RCR training to counter the often conflicting views and practices young scientists experience in real-life research settings.     

Practical beliefs vs. scientific beliefs: two kinds of maximization

There are two kinds of beliefs. If the ultimate objective is wellbeing (utility), the generated beliefs are “practical.” If the ultimate objective is truth, the generated beliefs are “scientific.” This article defends the practical/scientific belief distinction. The proposed distinction has been ignored by standard rational choice theory—as well as by its two major critics, viz., the Tversky/Kahneman program and the Simon/Gigerenzer program. One ramification of the proposed distinction is clear: agents who make errors with regard to scientific beliefs (e.g., the conjunction fallacy) should not be taken as committing irrationality—because they are most probably engaging the other kind of maximization, the pursuit of wellbeing.     

Sickness and disability benefit programmes: What is driving policy convergence?

In this paper we explore the reasons for the apparent convergence in sickness and disability policies across the OECD, asking whether and to what extent policy convergence should be seen as a product of policy learning. We conclude that convergence is the result of policy imitation more than policy learning and that learning (from past mistakes) is more likely within countries than across borders. Given limited evidence on what really "works", when it comes to designing policies that both provide adequate income security and still encourage labour-force participation, governments look abroad or to bodies like the OECD for possible models and ideas to underlie a reform. However, translating those ideas into workable policies requires great sensitivity to the institutional and political-economic context — especially the role of the social partners and the nature of policies in existence. When it comes to policy implementation, such contextual learning may be crucial.     

Terrorism and Probability Neglect

When strong emotions are involved, people tend to focus on the badness of the outcome, rather than on the probability that the outcome will occur. The resulting “probability neglect” helps to explain excessive reactions to low-probability risks of catastrophe. Terrorists show a working knowledge of probability neglect, producing public fear that might greatly exceed the discounted harm. As a result of probability neglect, people often are far more concerned about the risks of terrorism than about statistically larger risks that they confront in ordinary life. In the context of terrorism and analogous risks, the legal system frequently responds to probability neglect, resulting in regulation that might be unjustified or even counterproductive. But public fear is itself a cost, and it is associated with many other costs, in the form of “ripple effects” produced by fear. As a normative matter, government should reduce even unjustified fear, if the benefits of the response can be shown to outweigh the costs.     

How unemployment duration affects social assistance receipt: evidence from Finland

This article reports on a study of the impact of unemployment duration on the probability of becoming a social assistance recipient and on the time spent on social assistance. The data are taken from a local Finnish labour market consisting of the cohort of unemployed people at a given date (n = 2,274). The data are linked to information about the number of months recipients received social assistance during the subsequent year. Count data regression models of the hurdle type are estimated. The results of the analysis suggest that the impact of unemployment duration on the probability of becoming a social assistance recipient is explained to a large extent by changes in the distribution of types of unemployment benefits between people with different lengths of time spent in unemployment. Unemployment assistance recipients are more likely to become social assistance recipients and to spend longer periods on social assistance than are recipients of unemployment insurance because the unemployment benefits for the latter are higher. Among social assistance recipients, time spent on the transfer increases with unemployment duration only for those who are in frequent need of assistance.     

Meaningful life and happiness: Perspective from Malaysian Youth

As suicide rates among young people are rising globally, a mixed-mode research was conducted to investigate the perception of young people in Malaysia of what is meant by “Meaningful Life”, and its association with “life is determined by myself”. Two hundred and seventy young people aged 15–24 were recruited in this cross sectional survey. A thematic qualitative approach was used to analyze open-ended questions and the findings reveal that happiness, relationships with family members and friends and having specific goals in life were the top three contributors to meaningfulness in young peoples’ lives. The Chi-square test for independence showed significant association between the coded variables and gender. Females perceived life to be meaningful when the people around them were happy and males perceived life to be meaningful when having good relationships with people around them, and both thought that having goals in life make it meaningful. The result also showed that there was a significant association for females between “life is determined by myself” and “meaningful life”. Present findings suggested that meaningfulness in life is not a pure individual affect or personal construct but a relational concept; it is related to the meaningful activities in which young people engaged. Future researcher may further explore the relationship between youth perceptions of meaningful life and autonomous environments, among the immediate ecological systems of family, peers, and school surroundings.