Alfred Sauvy: Statistician,Economist, Demographer and Iconoclast (1898–1990)

Articles appearing in this journal are indexed in Current Contents Environmental Periodicals Bibliography Population Index CICRED's Review Sociological Abstracts Geo Abstracts GEOBASE Historical Abstracts and America: History and Life.     

Psychometric Properties of the Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale–Turkish (LGBIS-TR)

The aim of the current study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale (LGBIS; Mohr & Kendra, 2011) in a Turkish sample. Three hundred and ten LGB individuals participated and completed the Turkish version of the LGBIS (LGBIS-TR) along with the Satisfaction with Life, Positive and Negative Affect, and Self-Compassion Scales. Confirmatory factor analysis results yielded a good-fit for eight subscales of the LGBIS-TR. We also obtained satisfactory criterion validity and internal consistency reliability. Based on this initial study, the LGBIS-TR appears to be a psychometrically sound instrument to gauge LGB individuals’ identity experiences in Turkey. We discuss the results along with previous findings and limitations of the study, and we provide implications for further research and practice.     

Trends,Age Patterns and Differentials in Childhood Mortality in Haiti (1960–1987)

This paper examines the trends, patterns and differentials in childhood mortality in Haiti between 1960 and 1987 with data from three surveys and one census. Data comparability is maximized by a series of adjustments, and both direct and indirect techniques are applied. The results indicate that a slow decline in childhood mortality has occurred since 1960 for the country as a whole. Neonatal survival has shown impressive gains, especially in rural Haiti. Post-neonatal mortality has not, however, declined at the same rate. Mortality between the ages of one and five years has declined at about the same pace as infant mortality, maintaining consistency with model patterns of mortality change. The overall national decline in child mortality appears to have consisted of two phases. The first occurred in rural Haiti during the late 1960s and early 1970s and was due largely to a fall in neonatal mortality. The second phase of the decline was concentrated in Port-au-Prince, and seems to have affected all ages of childhood.     

A History of Threat in Europe and Belgium (1920–1993)

A general index of social, economic, and political threat in Europe and Belgium was developed for the years 1920 to 1993. We asked 91 Belgian historians, experts in contemporary history, to rate, on 7-point intensity scales, the extent to which each year, between 1920 to 1993, the security and existence of either Europe or Belgium was threatened. In making their judgments, the historians must integrate most of the information contained in objective data known to them as causes of fear (crime, unemployment, apprehension at starting a family, buying a car, or starting a new business, etc.). The present threat index rests on a synthetic judgment because many official objective data available to historians either are incomplete or lack conceptual coherence. The index obtained has then been compared to known objective indicators of social, economic, or political threat. We obtained Cronbach's coefficients of 0.99 for Belgian historians. Corrected for serial dependency, the threat index for Belgium is found to depend on a 5-variable subset composed of: suicide, unemployment, and balance of trade, for the positive associations; and GNP and car registrations, for the negative associations. The Pearson correlation between the threat index for Europe and Belgium is 0.95 (N = 74, p < 0.001). Just as McCann and Stewin (1990) had developed a similar tool for North America, the aim of this multi-purpose tool was to monitor the mood of Europe and Belgium over time based on evaluations made by professional historians. McCann and Stewin's (1990) threat index for the US has a Pearson correlation of 0.65 (N = 67, p < 0.001) with the European threat index. The article concludes with a discussion first on the question of the role of threat producing discourses in the perception of threat, and second, on the question of Europe as a concept.     

The effect of natural disasters on nuptiality: evidence from L’Aquila earthquake (Italy)

Population and Environment - Drawing on socio-psychology and economics literature contributions, this paper provides an original conceptual framework examining whether and how natural disasters...     

Race,Place, and Veteran Status: Migration among Black and White Men, 1940–2000

In this paper, I gauge the impact of veteran status on migration probabilities for black and white men in the late 20th century United States, comparing cohorts that were subject to various military staffing policies. I find that white veterans are more likely than are white non-veterans to live outside the state of their birth and to have recently migrated. These effects persist regardless of whether veterans were subject to the draft or the All Volunteer Force staffing policy, and are durable across the life course. Among blacks, elevated rates of veterans’ migration are first observed in 1980. These results illuminate a previously unidentified consequence of veteran status, and may point to a policy-linked mechanism through which prior military employment influences social mobility, the American labor force is redistributed, and the racial composition of states and localities is altered.     

Welfare State Development in Latin America and the Caribbean (1970s–2000s): Multidimensional Welfare Index,Its Methodology and Results

There is an ongoing debate between focalization and universalization on welfare policies as the best way to develop the welfare state in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, there is a need to develop a measure that exhibits the multidimensional nature of the welfare state, instead of focusing on the social spending dimension. Segura-Ubiergo (The political economy of the welfare state in Latin America: globalization, democracy and development. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2007) constructed a welfare effort index (WEI) to facilitate understand the relative degrees of welfare state development among Latin American countries. The WEI focuses mainly on social spending and ignores the other dimensions of welfare. Based on a comparative analysis of 17 Latin American countries and following the methodology of Segura-Ubiergo, a new index that aims at enriching the WEI was constructed. The new index is multidimensional in that it has eight indicators relating to three dimensions of welfare: social spending, coverage of welfare programs and outcome of welfare institutions. Principal component analysis was used for reducing the indicators into three indexes that represent three proposed dimensions of welfare. The combination of these three indexes gives the multidimensional welfare index. The results of the index account for more than 75 % of the data variance.     

Remarriage,Delayed Marriage,and Black/White Intermarriage, 1968–1995

How have changes in marriage order and marriage timing affected 1968–1995 trends in United States Black/White intermarriage? Researchers usually follow a one-sex perspective on the effects of timing and marriage order on marital selection, arguing that delayed marriages and remarriages will be more heterogamous than early or first marriages. This paper shows that a one-sex perspective is oversimplified and that assortative marriage with respect to race depends on the interaction of both husband’s and wife’s characteristics. Marriages that match with respect to age or marriage order tend to also match with respect to race. First marriages and remarriages for both partners are more likely to be same-race marriages. Marriages that are intermarriages with respect to marriage order are more likely to also be intermarriages with respect to race. Marriages that are usual age combinations (husband and wife similar in age or husband slightly older) are also usual race combinations (husband and wife same race). Marriages that are unusual age combinations are more likely to be racial intermarriages. This paper also shows that trends in remarriage patterns do not account for the increasing trend in racial intermarriage and that trends in marriage timing have actually slowed increases in racial intermarriage.     

Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001)

We use survey data from Bulgaria and Hungary to investigate the determinants of whether women intend to have a first or a second child and, if so, whether they intend to have the child within the ensuing 2 years or later. These determinants differ significantly by the order and timing of the intended birth. The variables used include measures of anomie and social capital and these appear to be among the factors that determine both whether to have a child and when. There is some evidence that these measures and economic factors are relatively more important in Bulgaria than in Hungary, and that ideational factors are more important in Hungary, particularly in the case of voluntary childlessness.     

Diversity and change in Cambodian households, 1998–2006

Extant ethnographic studies suggest that the nuclear family has been the predominant living arrangement in Cambodia, and the country’s rapid socioeconomic transformation since the early 1990s may have accentuated that dominance. To examine these claims, we analyse here household structure in Cambodia between 1998 and 2006, based on data from the 1998 Census, two nationally-representative surveys (2000 and 2005), and a continuing demographic surveillance system (from 2000 on). Our analysis confirms the large prevalence of nuclear families, but not an unequivocal trend toward their increasing prevalence. First, nuclear families are less prevalent in urban than in rural areas, and nationwide, they appear to have receded slightly between 2000 and 2005. We find that increases in the prevalence of extended households correspond to periods of faster economic growth, and interpret these contrasted trends as signs of tensions during this transitional period in Cambodia. While the nuclear family may still be the cultural norm, a high degree of pragmatism is also evident in the acceptance of other living arrangements, albeit temporary, as required by economic opportunities and housing shortage in urban areas.     

Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010

Population Research and Policy Review - This paper looks at the association between the Colombian Armed Internal Conflict (AIC) and fertility for women in the first decade of the 21st century when...     

Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871–1937

Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate and economic data from 1871 to 1937, we examine the effects of climate variability on marriage. This analysis reveals that marriage increases with negative environmental conditions such as cold temperatures, riverine flooding, and high rye prices. These findings are not consistent with a Malthusian narrative of marriage behavior or with the expectation that environmental constraints were stronger in the historical past.     

Ethnic identity, majority norms, and the native–immigrant employment gap

Earlier studies do not agree on whether ethnic identity, i.e., immigrants’ attachment to the home country and the host country, can explain lower employment outcomes among immigrants. This study investigates the relationship between employment and ethnic identity and complements the literature by capturing a novel dimension of ethnic identity: openness to majority norms. Reproducing measures from earlier studies, I find that immigrants’ employment outcomes do not systematically associate with their ethnic identity. However, immigrants who share social norms with the majority experience significantly better employment outcomes, particularly first-generation immigrant women. Furthermore, I show that interethnic differentials in majority norms could account for up to 20 % of the explained part of the employment gap between natives and first-generation immigrants. Those results shed more light on the interethnic employment gap and aspects of immigrants’ identity relevant to economic integration.     

Regional mismatch and unemployment: theory and evidence from Italy, 1977–1998

We describe the functioning of a two-region economy characterized by asymmetric wage setting. Labour market tightness in the leading-region affects wages in the whole economy. In equilibrium, net labour demand shifts towards the leading region raise unemployment elsewhere and leave regional wages unchanged, causing an increase in aggregate unemployment. Based on SHIW micro-data on earnings, we find strong evidence that wages in Italy only respond to Northern unemployment. We estimate that around 33% of the increase in Italian unemployment during 1977–1998 can be explained by regional mismatch, mainly due to an excess labour supply growth in the South.

Work–Family Conflict,Job Insecurity,and Health Outcomes Among US Workers

Previous scholarship has highlighted how work–family conflict (work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict) and job insecurity interfere with health outcomes. Little work, however, considers how these stressors jointly influence health among workers. Informed by the stress process model, the current study examines whether job insecurity moderates the relationships between work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict and two health outcomes: self-reported physical health and poor mental health. The analyses also consider whether a greater moderating role is played by work-to-family conflict or family-to-work conflict. Using data from the 2008 National Study of the Changing Workforce, we also examine if patterns diverge by gender. Our results show that work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict have direct effects on poor mental and physical health. Additionally, we find that the negative effect of work-to-family conflict on poor mental and physical health is stronger for those with job insecurity, while no such relationship was found for family-to-work conflict. We found no evidence of significant gender differences in how these relationships operate. Overall, we contribute to the literature by testing the combined effects of both forms of work–family conflict and job insecurity on poor mental and physical health. We also deepen the understanding of the stress process model by highlighting the salience of the anticipatory stressor of job insecurity.     

Malthus to modernity: wealth,status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879

A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.     

Educational Homogamy and Gender-Specific Earnings: Sweden, 1990–2009

Several studies have shown strong educational homogamy in most Western societies, although the trends over time differ across countries. In this article, we study the connection between educational assortative mating and gender-specific earnings in a sample containing the entire Swedish population born 1960–1974; we follow this sample from 1990 to 2009. Our empirical strategy exploits a longitudinal design, using distributed fixed-effects models capturing the impact of partner education on postmarital earnings, relating it to the income development before union formation. We find that being partnered with someone with more education (hypergamy) is associated with higher earnings, while partnering someone with less education (hypogamy) is associated with lower earnings. However, most of these differences in earnings emerge prior to the time of marriage, implying that the effect is explained by marital selection processes rather than by partner education affecting earnings. The exception is hypogamy among the highly educated, for which there are strong indications that in comparison with homogamy and hypergamy, earnings grow slower after union formation.