Alternative Routes to State Breakdown: Toward an Integrated Model of Territorial Disintegration

A theoretical strategy is proposed to integrate competing models of state breakdown by conceptualizing key concepts in these models at a more abstract level. The demographic model, which asserts that rapid population growth can bring about state breakdown when economic and political institutions are too rigid, is extracted from Goldstone's work. The geopolitical model, which argues that deteriorating geopolitical condition can bring about state breakdown if the state is too weak and the economy too unproductive, is extracted from Skocpol's and Collins's works. The competing models are conceptualized as alternative and interacting routes to state breakdown where changing population pressure and geopolitical condition may generate integrative or disintegrative tendency depending on state power and productivity. A model describing four dimensions of state power—economic, military, political, and administrative—is constructed to incorporate various conceptualizations of the state in the state breakdown literature. Also integrated in the model is a third alternative route suggesting that rapid market development can generate disintegrative tendency if state power is too low. The synthesized model allows us to see that disintegrative/integrative tendency produced by one route may intensify or alleviate that generated by another route.     

Trajectories of Institutional Disintegration in Late-Soviet Russia and Contemporary Iraq

How might revolutions and other processes of institutional disintegration inform political processes preceding them? By mapping paths of agency through processes of institutional disintegration, the trajectory improvisation model of institutional breakdown overcomes "action-structure" binaries by framing political revolutions as possible outcomes of such disintegrative processes. The trajectory improvisation approach expands the trajectory adjustment model of social change developed by Gil Eyal, Iván Szelényi, and Eleanor Townsley. An overview of political revolution in Soviet Russia between 1989 and 1991 illustrates trajectory improvisation. The recent American invasion and occupation of Iraq shows alternative routes to institutional disintegration, indicating the independence of models of institutional breakdown from those of social movements. These cases illustrate both the diversity of situations the trajectory improvisation model speaks to, and the limitation of models of trajectory adjustment, improvisation, social movements, and invasions, illustrating why such models at best enable what are called "explanatory narratives" of actual historical processes.     

The Post-Soviet Space: A Transition Period

This article analyzes the processes taking place in the “post-Soviet space”—the former Soviet Union. This notion is viewed as a special historical phenomenon implying not only common territory but also political, economic, cultural, mental, civil, and other mutual ties inherited from the past. The social and political nature of the “post-Soviet space” is fast-changing due to the impact of three interrelated factors: economic (the difference in economic potentials and the resource base, the increasing dependence on fluctuations in prices for basic export commodities in the global market, and the weak domestic markets); political (a new kind of conflicts between former Soviet republics, the instability of the political-party systems, the immaturity of civil society, and the growth of authoritarian trends); and international one (the region is a crossroads of the geopolitical interests of the world’s major players—Russia, the United States, the European Union and China). The vital importance of this space for Russia causes it to pursue an active policy in this region.     

COMPARING CITIZEN AND ELITE BELIEF SYSTEMS IN POST-SOVIET RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

No previous research has systematically compared the policypreferences and attitudinal constraint of elites and ordinarycitizens in societies undergoing a fundamental change in theform of the government and the economic system. This articleutilizes directly comparable survey questions asked of a representativesample of citizens and their parliamentary representatives intwo post-Soviet countries, Russia and Ukraine, to determinethe degree of similarity that existed in the attitudinal preferencesand ideological consistency of these two sets of political actors6 months after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The level ofattitude consistency and ideological thinking among ordinarycitizens was found to be unexpectedly high, thereby reflectingthe degree of politicization occurring during the period immediatelypreceding the Soviet disintegration. Relative to other studiesof elites, however, the attitude constraint among the eliteswas unexpectedly low. This unexpected finding is explained bythe absence of various institutions and arrangements that promoteconsistent attitudes among elites in western democracies, suchas functioning political parties, lobby groups, and an investigatorymedia.     

Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability

To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia—three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile—as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union—generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.     

Making borders stick: population transfer and resettlement in the Trans-Curzon territories, 1944-1949

"Designed in 1919-20 by the British mediator Lord Curzon as an armistice proposal between the then warring powers Poland and Soviet Russia, the Curzon Line served to identify the maximum territorial reach of Soviet political influence in Europe....[The author discusses] a program of resettlement which would target communities on both sides of the new border, a policy eventually affecting some 1.4 million individuals...." The implementation and impact of this population exchange are described.     

State Fragmentation: Toward a Theoretical Understanding of the Territorial Power of the State

In existing theories of revolution, the state is narrowly defined as an administrative entity, and state breakdown simply refers to the disintegration of a given political regime. But this narrow definition cannot deal with this question: Why, in a revolutionary situation, do some states become fragmented and others remain unified? I would therefore argue for the broadening of the concept of state breakdown to include the territorial power of the state and to treat the latter as a key analytical dimension in the study of state fragmentation. The dynamics of territorial state power involve the control of critical territories and valuable resources associated with the spatial position of a given state in the interstate system. A strong territorial state is able to maintain its organizational coerciveness and territorial integrity, whereas a weak territorial state is vulnerable to fragmentation. The overall state crisis derives from the accumulated effects of geopolitical strain by which territorial fragmentation unfolds.     

Russian refugees. A tragedy or the costs of imperial consciousness?

The author attempts to estimate migration of Russians from other republics of the former Soviet Union back to Russia, and factors causing this migration. The encouragement by many local authorities of anti-Russian feeling for political purposes is identified as a major cause of such re-migration. This is a translation of the Russian article in Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniia (Moscow, Russia), No. 9, 1992, pp. 59-64.     

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittance Flows from Russia to Tajikistan

Within the two decades of transition to market economy interdependence of the former Soviet Union countries is continuing. Labour migration between Russia and the former Soviet Union republics is one of the examples of this relationship. This paper defines the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows from Russia to Tajikistan—the world’s top remittance-receiving country as a share of GDP. The paper demonstrates that the changes in the income available for the migrants and the possibility of migrants involvement in the labour market of the host country have a significant impact on their money transfers. Furthermore, remittance inflows are determined by the overall economic environment in the host and home countries as well as the global economy’s condition.     

Jewish tradition faces the Soviet economy: moral dilemma of ‘shadow’ entrepreneurship in the former Pale of Settlement,Ukraine

Soviet life in the former Pale of Settlement appears in the memories of its residents as a world of living Jewish tradition existing within the professional and business activities of artisans and merchants at a time when the ideology and political structure of the Soviet Union prohibited private enterprise. That is why it occupied the shady parts of the socialist economy. Today, after collapse of the Soviet Union, it still poses moral dilemmas for those associated with its illegal activities. However, recollections about Soviet illegal enterprise also provide a space for critique of the Soviet system and a base for construction of contemporary local identity; in this way people reconcile the economic ethics of the recent Soviet past with modern capitalist reality. Narratives about illegal economic activities in the Soviet period are about the relationship between the people and the state. They are seen as a cosmological system; the Soviet state acted as an economically ineffective external force. Within its matrix was integrated a local world of human relationships with their customs and rules created the own local world of consumption and welfare. At the centre of this space is the socially and economically experienced Jewish entrepreneur whose competence is based on local Jewish tradition. Stories about illegal Soviet economic activity have become the heritage of local communities that approve of local business continuity.     

Economic liberalization and social values: Spain in the decade of the 1980s

Spain has experienced dramatic political and economic changes in the last several decades. In particular, joining the European Community in 1985 marked a point of economic policy change and acceleration of economic growth for Spain. Based primarily on the results of two national social surveys in 1981 and 1990, this paper examines changes in Spanish social values that corresponded to this period of economic liberalization. While necessarily speculative, the paper concludes that economic reform may have had both integrative and disintegrative influences on social values and that the extent of the country's economic growth in the last half of the decade was probably insufficient to capture additional social benefits of economic advancement.     

The political economy of pension reform in Russia: Why partial privatization?

We begin with a brief history of social security policy in Russia both before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We describe the current pension scheme and present an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the model, with particular attention to the way in which it may disadvantage women and low-wage and informal sector workers. The reasons why Russia is in the process of implementing a social security scheme based largely on a model proposed by the World Bank is also explored. We argue that the decision reflects the effects of both internal and external economic pressures as well as cultural diffusion via the network of neo-liberal economists and pension experts associated with international financial institutions, most notably the World Bank. We conclude with a discussion of how we would restructure the Russian scheme making greater use of the notional defined contribution (NDC) model.     

Labour Migration Policy in Russia: Considerations on Governmentality

The authors argue that Russian migration policy reflects the functioning of contemporary Russia's entire bureaucratic machine. The bureaucracy's Soviet‐era governance techniques on the one hand and the material interests of particular pressure groups on the other, shape the manipulation of immigration regulation that has occurred since the early 2000s. Therefore, attempts to liberalize migration regulation, i.e., to simplify the legalization of foreign workers, have always been incoherent, accompanied by reservations and limitations. Additionally, Russian actions are riddled with conflict between ‘geopolitical’ and domestic policy rationales. The authorities’ occasional attempts to use immigration regulation as a foreign policy tool acquire primarily symbolic value in the ‘domestic political market’ rather than serving any instrumental purpose. The effort to enhance Russian influence in the post‐Soviet space through the ‘reintegration project’ (Eurasian Economic Union) collides with the goal of national labour market protection, since integration entails the removal of barriers to labour movement.     

多维视角下的阿塞拜疆什叶派问题

政治化程度较低和教派关系融洽是阿塞拜疆什叶派区别于黎巴嫩、伊拉克等国什叶派的显著特征。16世纪初伊朗萨法维王朝将什叶派定为国教,加速了阿塞拜疆人的什叶派化进程。19世纪初期以来沙俄和苏联的先后统治,给阿塞拜疆留下了深厚的世俗化遗产。1991年独立之后,阿塞拜疆的宗教政策以世俗化为核心,大致经历了温和规范、严格管控和局部调整三个时期。在此背景下,什叶派以宗教为旗帜的政治化主要包括两种表现形式,即巴库聚礼清真寺社团的温和政治参与和纳达兰村的激进政治抗争。什叶派大国伊朗虽然力图以多种方式影响阿塞拜疆什叶派,但效果比较有限。当前,虽然阿塞拜疆什叶派与政府存在一定矛盾,但远未达到对抗的程度,弱政治化和弱教派认同将是阿塞拜疆什叶派发展的长期现象。     

The national historical archive of Belarus 1

This essay considers a new, troubling development in the former Soviet Union. It calls for historians to be attentive and thereby perhaps to forestall or minimise potential damage to Jews and Jewish interests in the former Soviet Union which might result from the use and misuse of history. The essay assesses recent statements from a former minister in Russia regarding Jewish agricultural settlement in Crimea during the interwar period. These statements echo monstrous antisemitic fabrications from the High Stalinist years and suggest that Jews in the former Soviet Union may still be vulnerable to the effects of old Soviet‐style habits of historical manipulation.     

SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE AND HOMICIDE IN A TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY

Durkheim argued that rapid social change would produce anomic conditions which, in turn, would lead to increases in criminal and deviant behavior. Russia provides a unique opportunity to test this theory given the large-scale fundamental socioeconomic changes occurring in the nation. Russian homicide rates more than doubled in the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and are now among the highest in the world. The pace and effects of the socioeconomic transition vary widely throughout Russia, however, as do rates of and changes in violent crime. In this study, we took advantage of the unique natural experiment of the collapse of the Soviet Union to examine the association between socioeconomic change and homicide. We measured the negative effects of socioeconomic change by creating an index of changes in population size, unemployment, privatization, and foreign investment. Using data from Russian regions (n = 78) and controlling for other structural covariates, regression results indicated that regions that more strongly experienced the negative effects of socioeconomic change were regions where homicide rates increased the most between 1991 and 2000. Further analysis of the individual components of this index revealed that regions with greater increases in (1) unemployment experienced greater increases in homicide rates and (2) privatization experienced smaller increases in homicide rates.     

Perestroyka and the problems of social‐differentiation

The following article traces the way in which the communist party in the ex‐Soviet Union came progressively to betray the principle of social justice that was the driving force behind the October Revolution. The gradual erosion of the social policy of the country has created a diverse and complex social stratification structure which is bound to worsen with the introduction of economic reforms. The author argues that unless the process of economic transformation is corrected by a strong social policy, not only is economic reform likely to be impeded, but the political stability of the country is also likely to deteriorate.     

The West,Russia, and China in Central Asia: What Kind of Game Is Being Played in the Region?

The article discusses the nature of the tangled interaction between the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics and the outside great powers – Russia, the United States and China. Although the so-called Great Game model is often used to explain the geopolitical rivalry in the region, the current pattern of relations between various international actors is much more complex than a traditional tug-of-war between the old colonial empires. While Russia's strategic role in Central Asia appears to be on the rise, the capacity of the West to influence political developments in the region has diminished. However, the overall situation in Central Asia remains volatile and its geopolitical landscape is far from being settled.     

Post-Soviet emigration today and tomorrow

Trends in migration from the former Soviet Union are examined in light of recent political changes there. The author projects that "the number of departures may go up to 1-1.5 million people a year. This may happen if the present unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and instability continue to exist and if technical problems related to exit arrangements are solved. Once the situation normalizes first and foremost in Russia, the scope of emigration may be maintained at a level of 500,000 to 600,000 people per annum within the next two or three years and then begin to decline."     

The demographic situation as a factor in emigration from the USSR

This is an analysis of recent trends in internal migration within and emigration from the former Soviet Union. The study focuses on domestic social tensions and interethnic conflicts affecting migration. The author concludes that continued growth of the rural population, particularly in Central Asia, combined with growing unemployment, declining living standards, and economic stagnation will mean that Russia will have to repatriate a considerable proportion of Russians from other republics. Consideration is also given to a predicted demand for immigration from the non-Russian population of Central Asia. This is a translation of a Russian article in "Migratsiia naseleniia", Moscow, Russia, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992, pp. 6-31.